The demotion of Ivan Nova caused quite a stir on Sunday among a significant number of Yankee fans. The reasoning for wanting to stick with Nova over Hughes fell largely into the ‘what have you done lately’ category. As we all know, Hughes was bad earlier this year..check that. Let’s not sugarcoat things, Phil was utterly horrendous in April. He couldn’t maintain his velocity, couldn’t put anyone away. He didn’t look like a major league pitcher, much less the former #1 BA prospect in the sport. Meanwhile, Nova has been solid, improving month by month and appears to be growing up right before our eyes. The argument goes that Nova did the job this year and Phil didn’t, period.
But when you step back and look at the big picture, you understand why the Yanks made the call that they did. Let’s look at both player’s career averages in MLB and the minors:
Phil Hughes-
W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 13 8 4.46 43 25 155 146 80 77 20 55 134 99 1.292 8.4 1.1 3.2 7.7
MILB
W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB 32 8 2.35 68 65 344.0 234 97 90 11 85 385 0.927 6.1 0.3 2.2 10.1 4.53
Ivan Nova-
W L W-L% ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 12 8 .600 4.24 37 31 182 193 95 86 18 73 4 105 98 1.466 9.6 0.9 3.6 5.2
MILB
W L ERA G GS GF IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB 35 32 3.80 104 97 3 575.1 597 274 243 36 191 3 404 1.370 9.3 0.6 3.0 6.3 2.12
Hughes walks fewer, strikes out more, gives up fewer hits. Phil’s SO/BB rate is double that of Nova. Hughes was pitching in the big leagues at age 21 while Nova was in A-ball at the same age. As talents, the two simply aren’t comparable. At no point of his career has Nova shown the ability to dominate batters the way Phil did in the minors, 2009 or the first half of 2010. As a groundball pitcher, Nova will always give up his fair share of hits, but even Phil’s Walk rate is lower in both the majors and minors. Phil may have something to learn about inducing ground balls with men on base and being more efficient, but his skill set far outweighs that of Nova.
Fans always want to play the hot hand, but teams can’t take such a narrow view. If they do, they risk making decisions based on slumps rather than who’s the better overall player. Would anyone argue that Nick Swisher should have been benched for a hot minor leaguer after his .220/.340/.286 April? If he was, you would have missed out on his stellar .326/.445/.651 June. Some did argue he should have been benched for Jorge Vazquez, which in hindsight is absurd. If Phil just pitches to his career averages, he’s a better pitcher than Ivan Nova has ever shown himself to be. The decision to bump Nova in favor of Hughes was an easy one, and the right call.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
I only checked MLB for W/L, G, & GS, but I think you numbers for both Hughes & Nova are wrong.
[Reply]
Moshe Mandel Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 1:54 pm
Steve is using career averages, not career totals. That might be the discrepancy.
[Reply]
Steve S. Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 2:20 pm
Yes it is. I should have noted that in the post.
[Reply]
Phil C Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 2:30 pm
It is in the post! But I still don’t understand how you arrived at those averages. For example, Hughes has 31 career wins, are you saying that is from approx 2.4 full seasons?
[Reply]
Steve S. Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 2:50 pm
I edited out some stuff that was irrelevant, I may have misaligned something. I’m in my car, so I will give it a look tonight.
[Reply]
Phil C Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 2:55 pm
I appreciate you taking time to explain this to me. Thanks! And BTW I found the analysis to be excellent.
[Reply]
Joe G. made it clear that this is not a permanent change; it’s a tactical move, and doesn’t reflect negatively on Ivan’s performance. For Duh, so vehement here, it makes sense to see what Phil has got, after this rehab. If he “sucks” (your word, not mine), they readjust.
[Reply]
The minor-league stats mean nothing. All minor-league stats show is what the players did to get called up. Both made it to the big leagues, Hughes is a big leaguer now, has been since 2007. Nova was a big leaguer from his callup last year through Friday but will be one again. He’s a big leaguer in the sense that he’s definitely gonna be in some big-league uniform by year’s end, Yankees or elsewhere, likely (hopefully) the former. He’s made it even though he was sent down.
The career stats mean nothing because I see no 2007-08 Hughes that can tie into his 2010 esp. his first 13 GS of 2010 so in that sense I’m giving Hughes credit. I did see an awful lot of 2007-08 Hughes in last 20 starts and 2011 Hughes. He was not a starter in 2009 so eliminate that and all his relief appearances from his career stats. Eliminate Nova’s relief stats, too. Since you’re comparing them as starters and debating who should be in the 2011 rotation. Hughes was in a completely different role in 2007-08 and 2010-11 than 2009. Bottom line is he’s had one really good half-season as a starter (first 13 starts of last year) and one full season out of four seasons as a starter, that’s the real stat and it’s not impressive at all esp. when the best half-season and the full season came in one year and he was worse in the second half.
I’m not playing the hot hand, I’m playing the hand that has produced actual results. MLB is all about results in the real world, not projections based on stats. If heaven forbid CC got hurt and missed 7 starts and some throwaway or Carlos Silva stepped in his slot and went 7-0 with an ERA under 2 in 7 starts, you better believe when CC returns, one of the other three starters is getting the boot from the rotation cuz the throwaway or Silva is staying, fuck who is who among that three. I wouldn’t care if it was Burnett and he howled about it. Too bad. The best five starters start, that’s it.
“What have you done for us lately?” is a valid question. It’s the one everyone should answer. It’s the one the NFL asks of every player in training camp and after it, it hasn’t hurt the NFL much has it? What has Hughes done lately? He was a .500 pitcher as a starter after his first 13 starts in 2010. He beat a perennial postseason patsy in the Twins then got his ass kicked by the Rangers in the ALCS. After that, he got his ass kicked in three starts this year. Nova, on the other hand, has produced #3 starter numbers in a half-season in present times. He is (was) on pace to win 16 games AS A FIFTH STARTER if you want to say everyone under CC is better than him.
You are basing your entire argument that Hughes is better than Nova for 2011 on stats and the long-term when it’s all about the here and now. You can’t talk about Hughes long-term like the long-term is all that matters then piss and moan that Jeter hasn’t collected an extra-basehit since whenever o he’s hit only % of his balls in play out of the infield. It is so artifical why Hughes is getting the call over Nova. Why? Cuz if Colon and Garcia weren’t pitching like they have been, one of them would get the boot and Nova would remain. Hughes has a job only cuz he can’t take one from Colon or Garcia and Nova is the odd-man out with his options and less experience, that’s it. That’s why Hughes is in a Yankees uniform again. He’s in one on Nova being out by default.
If George Steinbrenner was still alive, I bet he would want Nova to remain in the rotation cuz he would probably be of the “If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.” mindset. How’d the Yankees do under George?
Hughes should be given three starts to prove he can stay in the rotation, that’s it. 7/6 at Cleveland, 7/18 at Tampa Bay, and 7/23 vs.Oakland. If he can’t get it done, Nova should replace him and the Yankees should either demote Hughes or trade him if the bounty is good enough.
Hughes was 10-1 with a 3.17 ERA in his first 13 starts last year and has been a 7-8 starter in his last 20 starts since including three starts this year. He won his 18th game of 2010 as a reliever, so he won only 17 games as a starter. I am so tired of reading “he won 18 games” like he won them as a starter. He won 17 as a starter, what we all consider him to be now.
It’s about winning with the best for 2011, not with who MIGHT be better 7/6/11 until ???
Stop using minor-league stats, career stats, and TALK about Hughes as the measure of who is better, him or Nova, and as the case for Hughes over Nova, and start with 2011.
Nova 8-4, 4.12 ERA in 2011
Hughes 0-1, 13.94 ERA in 2011
Nova wins, Hughes loses.
What I find hilarious is you’re pushing for Hughes long-term yet all of you who write for this blog have been piling on Jeter since last year as if his 1996-2009 never mattered. You champion Hughes but shit all over Jeter or if you don’t do that you dissect him with disdain.
You, Steve S. once replied to me on here that you would’ve let Jeter go after last year. One bad season and he’s out? His worst seasons before 2010 are better than 90% of starting shortstops and infielders period. You wouldn’t have given him the chance to collect 3,000 hits as a Yankee. So you are one to talk about people who say “What have you done for me lately?” when you are the prime example of that with Jeter.
[Reply]
Matt Imbrogno Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 3:11 pm
“What I find hilarious is you’re pushing for Hughes long-term yet all of you who write for this blog have been piling on Jeter since last year as if his 1996-2009 never mattered. You champion Hughes but shit all over Jeter or if you don’t do that you dissect him with disdain.”
If you can’t see the difference between Hughes and Jeter, then there’s no point to having this conversation.
[Reply]
Steve S. Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 4:06 pm
I don’t recall the context of that, if you do please dig up a link for me. But I didn’t support going to 4 years for Jeter (neither did Cashman) as the Yanks were clearly bidding against themselves.
In any case, Jeter is irrelevant. Were discussing two 25 year olds, both of whom have yet to enter their prime seasons. Not a 37 year old SS showing signs of age and a slowing bat. The idea that you would think these two situations are comparable shows how all over the map you are on this topic.
[Reply]
Thanks for the great article, Steve. I don’t think anybody doubts that Phil had and has more upside then Ivan. But putting numbers aside for a moment, I’m just wondering if it isn’t a bit of an apples and oranges comparison. Ivan’s breakthrough success this season looks to me to be tied not to a dominance of the swing and miss variety where Phil has dwelled, but rather as a groundball/pop up machine that opposing batters have difficulty laying off of and then can’t square up on.
I also have a tiny nagging (albeit wholly unsubstantiated at this point) concern that we could potentially be looking at a replay of the Joba Rules drama. Nobody really knows for sure how or why Phil’s velocity evaporated, and after some time off and then a few abbreviated minor league starts he’s been declared cured. (If it was overwork that created his dead arm, couldn’t that be the next step if it returns?) Personally, I don’t understand why they didnt let him go through a few more rotation turns down on the farm to make sure and let Ivan’s steep growth curve with the big club ride a bit longer. Of course, I’m hoping he comes back hot and nasty, and I suppose Brian C and the club need a fast snapshot of Phil’s real status before the TD. Just keeping my fingers crossed it’s all for the best for Ivan, Phil and the club’s WS chances this season. Our rotation’s been really clicking up until now, and want us to take our best shot now, not next year.
[Reply]
Eric Schultz Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 6:17 pm
I think you hit the nail on the head about the trade deadline aspect. The Yankees know what they have in Nova (a solid 4-5 guy), but they don’t know what they have in Hughes yet. They probably want to make sure he can be at least a reliable 4 or better going forward. This would obviate the need to trade for a back-end starter, and possibly a front-line starter if all goes well.
[Reply]
The issue isn’t Hughes over Nova, it’s Garcia over Nova. Stick Freddy in the
[Reply]