Courtesy of Bronx Banter
Dan Menella of MLBTR posed an interesting question on Sunday that I wanted to throw out to our readers. Here it is:
Twins lefty Franciso Liriano is an intriguing potential trade candidate. It feels like he’s been around forever, but he’s just 27 and under team control through 2012, so he’s still well within his prime years and relatively cheap for another season and a half.
Liriano’s raw stuff is nasty, but the road back from Tommy John surgery in 2006 has been marked by notable highs and lows. He appeared to be fully recovered in 2010, posting a 3.62 ERA (2.62 FIP), 9.44 K/9, 2.72 BB/9 and 53.6% GB percentage. He’s regressed in 2011, however, with his control (4.65 BB/9) being especially problematic.
Between Liriano’s bouncing between dominance and mediocrity, and the Twins’ uphill climb in the AL Central (eight games behind the Indians through today), it’s quite possible that the lefty could be made available on the trade market this month. This came up in last week’s MLBTR Chat with Tim Dierkes, who suggested that the Twins would probably recoup a top-50 prospect in exchange for Liriano, considering his age and contract status. (For reference, here are Keith Law’s, Baseball America’s and Baseball Prospectus’ respective top-100 prospects for 2011).
According to both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, the Yankee prospects that fall into the Top 50 category are Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos, Gary Sanchez and Dellin Betances. I would remind our readers those are pre-season rankings. All four of them have had varying degrees of difficulty this year, which may affect their current ranking. Jesus Montero has had a down year with the bat and made little progress defensively. Manny Banny has struggled with his control this year, walking far too many batters early on, though he has improved in that area of late. Gary Sanchez got off to a horrible start with the bat, had attitude issues, and has allowed an alarming number of passed balls. Dellin Betances has had a solid year, though his walk rate has climbed a bit. If this list was redone he may jump to the top of it, although many questions remain about him long term.
I would like to add Austin Romine to this list. He didn’t make the preseason Top 50 (though he did make BAs Top 100) but with the solid year he’s had with the bat to go along with his already stellar defensive reputation, he’s put himself ahead of Montero in the eyes of some Yankee execs. For purposes of this discussion, let’s assume a midseason ranking would have Romine in the Top 50 as well. So the question is would you be willing to trade a Top 50 prospect to acquire Francisco Liriano?
MLBTR Polling was fairly evenly split on the matter, which tells me it’s a good question. While I’m sure some folks will have strong opinions on the matter, it’s not an obvious choice. A healthy Liriano propels the Yanks to the clear favorite in the AL and gives them a tough lefty to face the Red Sox in the playoffs. An unhealthy Liriano and you may very well be kicking yourself over giving up that prospect for the next 7 years. Or not, they are just prospects after all, so nothing is certain. The Twins are down on Liriano for a reason. He’s been lax in offseason workouts, which resulted in yet another shoulder issue this spring. He took forever to come back from TJS, which is often indicative of not rehabbing all that hard. He throws that arm-taxing slider of his way too much, so you can’t love his long term health prospects. But over the next two seasons that you control him, he could win you a championship (or two), which is what the Yankees are all about. He’s insurance if Colon runs out of gas, and puts you in a stronger position if/when CC opts out.
Final thing to consider, here’s Liriano’s numbers for this year
Year W L W-L% ERA G IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 2011 5 7 .417 4.76 14 79.1 64 44 42 8 41 1 68 83 1.324 7.3 0.9 4.7 7.7
Those season numbers are skewed by his horrendous April (1-4 9.13 ERA 1.901 WHIP) when he was still getting past his ST shoulder issues. Since then, and one of the best Lefties in the league, posting an ERA below 3 and a WHIP around 1.1. You could argue the Twins are selling low, or gettin’ out while the gettin’s good. You could bank on the Yankee clubhouse culture keeping on top of him to stay fit, or worry that he’ll be unhappy here. So how far will you go for Liriano? Would you be willing build a package around (any) one of Montero, Banuelos, Betances, Sanchez or Romine?
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nope
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I would trade Romine or Sanchez.. Sanchez is way too far away and anything could happen with him. Romine while solid I have never got an indication that he is expected to be a superstar catcher (avg d avg hitter with not much power). Montero is going to be a great hitter and it is too hard for me to trade a potential ace in Manny and Betances who are performing well it double A and could potentially be called up next year sometime.
I like Liriano and I think the yanks should pull the trigger for the right deal. Young power lefties who strike out a lot of guys don’t come around too often.
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Steve S. Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 9:35 pm
If I’m the Twins, I want Montero. Mauer is having all sorts of trouble staying behind the plate, I don;t need a Catcher who’s 3 years off and stumbled in his first promotion.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 6:56 am
If I’m the Twins I want Romine. He should be in triple A right now, and you know without a doubt he’s a catcher. The last thing the Twins need is to have to move Mauer to 1B, Mourneau to DH, and have Montero turn out to not be a C.
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I’m torn about Liriano. If someone had posed this question at the end of last season I would have jumped at the opportunity to sign Liriano. This year though it may be another story. I’m not sure he has his head screwed on right. And the last thing the Yankees need lefty or not is another pitcher that doesn’t have his head screwed on right (ala AJ Burnett). I would not trade any of the prospects mentioned in the blog especially Romine he may very well turn out to be the Yankees starting catcher in a year. I guess I might offer 2 “B” prospects if necessary but I think that would be my limit with what I know today. For me I would save the prospects mentioned for a “bigger fish” in the trade market then Liriano when it becomes available.
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Steve S. Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 9:36 pm
The question is “would you trade a top 50?” So your answer is no. But I like how conflicted you are, I feel the same way.
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I don’t know if I would trade any of those guys for him… Although out of all of those guys Sanchez would be the easiest to give up because he is farther away and everything I have heard is that Romine will be a good starting MLB catcher who can hit and field and that is valuable in todays baseball…
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Steve S. Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 9:38 pm
When you think about it, Sanchez and Montero are basically the same prospect. All bat, no glove Catchers with attitude problems.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 6:53 am
Sanchez will be a catcher in body at least though. Sanchez will never have to worry about being so big he falls out of the position. The biggest problem I have with Montero behind the plate is not his bad defensive skills, its the fact that he is so cumbersome behind the plate. He’s going to make it hard to even be a warm body behind the plate with that size.
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Romine, in a heartbeat. No on Jesus or manny. Would strongly consider Sanchez or Betances. You have to give to get, and the Yankees need to make short term moves to win now (so long as the short term move is not disasterous).
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Tags Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 4:30 pm
You obviously have not seen Romine. I’ve seen him for 2 years in Trenton and after playing his first full season now looks like the all around catcher we hoped for. Hitting for average and playing well behind the plate. His bat looks 100% quicker this year.Betances has power stuff. Even on days when he doesn’t have great control he is able to survive with the heat he throws. So there is no way I’d include either one of them. And just Sanchez is not going to get it done.
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Two A.J.s in one rotation? No thank you.
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Recognizing that we as fans tend to overvalue our own prospects, I would deal Sanchez or possibly Banuelos. The former is far from the majors and thus unlikely to be as attractive to the Twins. I would consider the latter because Liriano fills the need for a second lefty in the rotation. All this is conditional, of course, on reports from Yankee scouts that Liriano has regained his consistency and is back to pitching as he did last year.
Then, if the Yankees make such a deal, we get to have the fun of debating who Liriano replaces in the rotation, since all the starters save Hughes have better numbers this year than Liriano does.
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Tags Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 4:32 pm
Trade your top lefty prospect for a guy who has a history of being out of shape and has had arm issues? Plus the Twins are one of the best run organizations in baseball, if they’ve soured on Liriano there’s a reason.
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Joe in NYC Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 11:48 pm
Minnesota has a history of fitting players to their “strategy” of pitching to contact while minimizing walks and hitting early in the count with aggressive base running. When the player doesn’t fit, Minnesota hasn’t done such a great job of adapting to the players’ strengths. For instance, they nearly missed out on Santana because his pitching style didn’t fit their style, burying him the bullpen for years. And they completely missed out on Ortiz, because his approach to hitting didn’t fit their style.
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Tags Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 2:04 pm
And maybe there were no steroids:)
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Steve S. Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 9:42 pm
I couldn’t disagree more. Manny Banny is a much more projectable than Dellin. You could argue the Granderson/A-Jax point, in that if Betances pans out, he could be a right handed Liriano. So take the sure thing now, like we did in the Granderson deal.
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Joe in NYC Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 11:49 pm
I would do the same.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 6:50 am
I probably wouldn’t deal either. Banuelos is out of the question for me, but Betances would be close. You are right its not far from the Jackson/Granderson deal, but I think it’s much more likely Betances becomes Liriano or better than AJax becomes Granderson or better.
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To quote Nancy Reagan, “Just say NO!”
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Steve S. Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 9:42 pm
and when Colon has nothing left in September, then what?
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I’d pass. A package led by a top 50 prospect is probably FMV but not a price I’d be willing to pay.
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How much does a bag of cheetos from WalMart cost? Because thats how much It’d be willing to pay
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Steve S. Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 9:44 pm
Yeah, we have plenty of pitching right now….wait a minute. That’s exactly what we said at this time last year, and we were a starter short for the playoffs.
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Tags Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 2:06 pm
I would think if you compared last years pitching stats to this years and the quality compared to last year you’d see a big difference that favors this year. One of the pitchers down was Vasquez and he just stunk
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I love me some Romine, but I would trade him or Sanchez (not both) for cost controlled Liriano. Two reasons:
– Catching is a position of strength in the Yankees farm, and you build a farm in order to make your big league club better. Better either by developing players into big league contributers, or by trading pieces of value for Major League talent. Never trade Banuelos or Betances, where pitching is a position of weakness for this team. And I would never give up on Montero when he’s THIS close to making it to The Show (Juan Miranda and IPK say hi from sunny Arizona)
– I would be willing to be that Liriano is not ‘a malcontent’, nor is he ‘lazy’. My money is on him being a ‘change of scenery’ candidate. Maybe being in a winning environment does his ‘attitude issues’ better, but maybe not.
All that said, his elbow scares the hell out of me.
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deadrody Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 5:01 pm
Certainly catching is an organizational strength, but honestly, only if you are talking about Romine. There is no guarantee Montero can stick at Catcher, no matter how much the Yankees try and spin it, and nobody outside of Romine is even CLOSE.
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Steve S. Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 9:46 pm
Agreed on all counts except the last. His shoulder worries me WAY more than his elbow.
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Long time reader, as far as who I would trade I would go no further than maybe Romine. Even then that is giving up too much on how he has been lately. He is very shaky, and has trouble with his command. Montero, Banuelos, Betances, Sanchez have too much upside to be traded for him, and I believe that Betances may be ready to pitch in the majors within the next year or so. In other words I would rather wait for Betances then trade for Liriano.
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Steve S. Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 9:48 pm
For all you ‘deal Romine’ folks, I’m not sure your up to the minute on his status. Many in the Yankee org have him AHEAD of Montero at this point. Jesus has had a bad year, and Romine has been good with the bat and glove.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 10:09 pm
Really? Where did you get that? I’m pretty certain Jesus is still considered a significantly better prospect.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 6:37 am
I don’t believe it, but I read a report the other day that some within the org have even dropped him to third on the catching prospect bug board. I still value Montero more than the rest, but apparently not everyone does.
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Steve S. Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 8:01 am
For both of you, check Jack Curry’s Twitter from yesterday. Frankly, its old news, I heard that weeks ago elsewhere.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 8:13 am
I think there is a difference in a story being out there and Cashman valuing Romine more. I’m sure they don’t like his attitude problem, and he has really struggled this year, but I can’t drop him below Romine myself. His upside at any position is simply too high. Now if we end up half way through next season with him still struggling like this, and Romine showing he’s ready or close to ready things may change.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 8:51 am
Curry had it as an “if” statement. And quite frankly, anyone who moves Romine ahead of him based on a few bad months is someone who shouldn’t be in charge of prospects.
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This conversation has been floating around since the winter meetings. He was suspect even then when our pitching panic button was getting mashed, and he’s even more so now with his regression. The guy’s a confirmed head case (more of the Lackey variety than the AJ, I would posit) and his career numbers vs our AL East opponents are mediocre to horrendous (another Lackey trait). Plus we have Nova, who’s already proven to be MLB ready and was having a better season, just sitting on the shelf down on the farm.
If, as I’m sure all would agree, we wouldn’t trade Ivan straight up for this guy, then how is he worth anything at all to us? He’s worthless to us, and I wouldn’t give up a high round draft choice for him, let alone a prospect.
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Kevin M. Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 5:22 pm
Uhm….I’m pretty sure we all wouldn’t agree not to trade Nova straight up for him. That’s absured and 100% wrong. Not only would we trade Nova straight up for Liriano…Brian Cashman would personally drive him all the way to Minnesota to get it done. You need to learn the value of swing and miss stuff for starters….someting Nova lacks completely and Liriano has in spades.
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nyyankeefanforever Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 5:40 pm
Haha! Fair enough, Kevin. I shouldn’t have assumed there wasn’t at least one armchair GM here with a raging gambling compulsion willing to deal away a homegrown, young, proven and healthy MLB #4 or #5 starter with a bright future for an erratic, damaged arm with major control problems and a history of character issues and a murky future at best who wouldn’t even slot in as a #3 in our rotation. I suppose I leaped to that conclusion because, until your post, nobody else in this thread has even breathed the slightest thought he would be worth anything more than an untested major league prospect. My bad and I stand corrected.
However, until I see a seconding of your proposed deal, I will, like you, question your use of the “we” pronoun.
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David, Jr. Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 5:53 pm
I actually don’t think that would be a bad trade, but they shouldn’t give more than Nova. At his best, Liriano would help the Yankees. However, there are certainly red flags. The injury history is a fact, and if the Twins are willing to trade him that means that they aren’t willing to commit long term to a guy who is presumably their number one starter. Giving up Nova shouldn’t hurt, given what we have coming up behind him. It is about right.
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nyyankeefanforever Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 6:14 pm
Ok Kevin, there’s your second. … and David, what can I say? You propose that at his best Liriano could help us, but don’t say the same for Nova, who has already helped us to the tune of more than 90 innings and 8 wins in less than half a season — or roughly about the same as a healthy Hughes helped us last year up to this point. I can’t argue with that logic. Peace, my friends.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 8:58 pm
He didn’t say Nova didnt , or couldn’t help us. He said that Nova’s loss shouldn’t hurt as bad because we have similar low upside guys in the system, and Nova is better.
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nyyankeefanforever Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 6:37 pm
And Kevin, FWIW, I don’t need to learn the value of swing and miss stuff. However, I think you need to take another look at Liriano’s day in Tampa today, which I didn’t even see before my posts above. Not a whole lot of swinging and missing going on there today, and the Rays aren’t exactly beasts with their bats lately. That’s a real learning opportunity for you.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 8:55 pm
Trying to make a decision off of one game isn’t smart. Every pitcher has games where this stuff isn’t sharp, even hall of famers, even Sabathia. Maybe you should look at his numbers from last year, or since he has come off the DL. Liriano has the talent of an ace, and is a legit number 2. Not wanting to trade for him for injury concerns are one thing, trying to use one bad game to dismiss his talent is silly. He has far and away better stuff than Nova ever will, and his upside Nova could never dream of having. Trying to say otherwise is ridiculous.
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nyyankeefanforever Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 11:25 pm
I certainly didn’t say today’s outing is his final report card; I was just pointing out the fragility of swing and miss stuff and defending the value of a young humper who can keep the ball down, keep us in games and eat up innings. I certainly get that Liriano shows flashes of #1 stuff, but didnt see the need to belabor the point already made by others before me regarding his medical record and on-off switch with his stuff. My main concern is most everyone else’s: if the Twins are willing to dump him at this point with his remaining favorable contract, what do they know we don’t.
Whether due to recurring injuries, pain, mental stress or what have you — I’m sorry but I just can’t see him as anything more than a crapshoot when we don’t need to roll the dice. The down side with a guy like Nova is he doesnt get any better than a decent #4 or #5, which is fine by me. A non-power pitching groundball machine has value to us, be it as a back rotation starter, middle or long reliever. The down side with Liriano is his career can end with a snap of his elbow or cost us some high leverage outings before it does, with no guarantee we get his best stuff on the big NY stage in the heat of a pennant race — which is the reason for dealing for him in the first place. His record within our division does suck. Also, I can’t help feeling such a deal would be just another example of needlessly tossing yet another homegrown prospect out of our nest before he’s barely out of the egg. I don’t know how long anybody expects to rely upon or hang onto Freddy or Bartolo. But knowing young Ivan could be around next season in some role — even if it’s as trade bait for someone who’s a healthy known quantity and makes sense — makes sense to me, financially and strategically.
Sorry if I’m nuts for not being willing to risk much more than a draft choice (or Meat Tray and Logan) for a medical and mental case that just clogs our rotation and blocks (or ends) more of our young guys’ progress. I just can’t share the love, I guess. Thanks all for your patience and taking the time to explain how I’m wrong. I’ll just have to get over it.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 6:41 am
Taking things somewhat personally aren’t you? I said if you don’t want to trade for him because of injury concerns that’s understandable, but the talent can’t be knocked. There are reasons to leave him be, but I think people are going a little far in de-valuing him. Saying he isn’t worth Nova, or worth Nova alone is what I mean by that.
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nyyankeefanforever Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 2:27 pm
No personal offense taken and none intended, Chris. I understood your meaning. Just a friendly honest disagreement about his value here. Thanks for clarifying though. That’s menschy of you.
Noooooooooooooooo!
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I changed my mind after his line today against Tampa, lets meake the deal
IP 4.1 H 6 R 5 BB 4 HR 1
Yeah that’s just they guy we want to give our top prospects for
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Steve S. Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 9:49 pm
I’m sure you’re just joking, right? Nobody makes decisions like these based on one outing.
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Tags Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 10:07 am
I base it on a bunch of games with numbers like his last start.
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wouldn’t part with Montero, banuelos, or Sanchez.
Would consider Betances.
Would part with Romine. Though I doubt Romine could lead a package. Mauer ain’t going anywhere with that contract and ego. Nor should he. Romine, noesi, and warren … Just not good enough.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 8:51 pm
Mauer isn’t going anywhere but his health is. He is going to stay at catcher for no more than 3 more years, and if he can’t stay any healthier they may move him sooner.
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Not very.
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I’d trade Romine, Nunez, and Nova for Liriano right now. Nova and Nunez are probably never going to be more than league average at their positions, and Romine while a good prospect shouldn’t become a superstar. At his best Liriano can be a number 1 pitcher, and he has gotten continually better since coming off the DL.
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Steve S. Reply:
July 6th, 2011 at 9:53 pm
That might even be a little bit much. Will another team match that with MLB ready talent? I doubt it. I think Romine-Nova-Laird is plenty. Don’t forget the Twins are a bit different, they don’t mind sure-thing lower ceiling players and value defense more than most. Maybe Laird gets sub’d out for an outstanding defender with a decent bat, though I can’t think of one off the top of my head.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 6:47 am
Does Laird hold any value? He’s had a pretty awful season, and even coming into the year he had a lot of doubters. I’m not sure if he is much of a trade chip at this point. It may be over paying to some degree but honestly I’m fine with it. Nunez isn’t my short stop of the future, and Nova isn’t as good as Liriano. If I have to have all my risk lie with Romine I’ll do it.
Now if you want to start with your deal, and be willing to work up to mine that’s just good negotiating. I’m simply saying I would be willing to go that high, starting there wouldn’t be smart, but I don’t think it’s a terrible deal to end up at.
That’s the problem with the system, we aren’t very deep on position players, and most of our best play catcher. I wonder if someone like Melky Mesa is carrying more value these days than Laird? He’s no sure thing but he has a higher ceiling I would believe.
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Just in case anyone was wondering what Liriano’s numbers have been since coming off the DL on June 7th here they are. He has pitched 35 innings, allowed 31 hits, struck out 38, walked 13, and allowed 16 earned runs on 3 home runs.
These numbers break down to 9.77 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, 7.97 H/9 and a 4.11 ERA in 35 innings pitched. The ERA is above 4 but the peripheral numbers all suggest he is pitching better than that. His stuff alone is a huge upgrade over Freddy Garcia and Ivan Nova, and he would be the only member of the rotation generating that many K’s/9.
IF Colon is still going as good as he is right now the playoff rotation with Liriano would be Sabathia, Colon, Liriano, Burnett. That would allow for a Left, Right, Left, Right rotation for the post-season.
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[...] Would you give up one of Jesus Montero, Gary Sanchez, Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances or Austin Romine in a package trade for Francisco Liriano? Right now, only Romine for me. [...]