CC and Pitch F/X

By Matt Imbrogno On July 6, 2011 · 15 Comments · In PitchFX

was just insane last night. There is no other term for how CC pitched except for maybe “Beast Mode.” He went seven innings gave up no runs on five hits and two walks while striking out eleven Indian hitters, becoming the in 2002 to strikeout ten or more batters in back to back games. So what did CC do last night that made him so successful? The answer, my friends, is blowing in the wind.

Sabathia tallied 24 21 swings and misses last night, seven of which came on his fastball, which averaged 95.58 MPH (!!) and topped out at 97.5 (!!!). The other fourteen (!!) whiffs came on his slider, which was just dominating the Cleveland hitters all night, especially the lefties.

Look at the results plot against left handed batters. Everything is down and away, showing us just how much the slider was fooling lefty hitters:

Watching Sabathia’s last five starts–42 strikeouts, six walks–has been absolutely incredible and though Pitch F/X obviously backs up what we saw, it still can’t quite come close to doing CC enough justice. When he’s on, he’s as good as anyone in baseball.

A few other thoughts that popped up while CC was doing his thing last night:

1. I’m really glad that Joe Girardi decided to pull Sabathia after the seventh inning. Just because he can throw 100+ pitches every time out doesn’t mean that he should.

2. Moshe dropped tweet and I can’t help but agree with him, even if it’s emotion dictating my decision making:

You wanna advocate letting CC walk? Then give me a viable alternative that keeps them covered at top of rotation.

This is something we’re going to have to deal with at the end of the season when CC uses his opt out clause, but I definitely want the Yankees to keep him (duh). I think it will take at least five years at or above $20M a year to keep him hear and that’s a lot of money/years, but I think Sabathia is worth it. I might have a limit on the offer–I wouldn’t go seven years again–but I would work as hard as possible to make sure he’s in pinstripes for the foreseeable future. So, let’s use this as a jumping off point for discussion in the comments. How many years/how much money would you go for CC when he opts out?

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15 Responses to CC and Pitch F/X

  1. Mark Finke says:
    July 6, 2011 at 11:06 am

    I would like 5 years for 110 Mio. But I think the Yankees have to go to 6 years and around 125.

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    MJ Recanati Reply:
    July 6th, 2011 at 11:11 am

    All due respect but you’re offering Sabathia $22M/year (5Y/$110M) and then saying that the Yanks would have to go down to $20.8M (6Y/$125M)? I can’t see how Sabathia would trade an extra year at a lower base rate of compensation in order to only pull in an extra $15M over the life of a contract.

    Typically dollars and years move in lock-step and players won’t sacrifice per-year base salary for an extra year. The compromises come in years and total compensation, but rarely in annual comp.

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  2. MJ Recanati says:
    July 6, 2011 at 11:08 am

    Considering Cliff Lee got 5Y/$120M with a $12.5M buyout (pushing the total contract up to 5Y/$132.5M), it’s safe to assume that Sabathia, two years Lee’s junior, will be able to command 5Y/$135M.

    He has the leverage, the age, the track record and the correct handedness to push past Lee’s deal.

    [Reply]

    T.O. Chris Reply:
    July 6th, 2011 at 9:38 pm

    I think he’s going to ask for at least 6, and push for 7.

    [Reply]

  3. Professor Longnose says:
    July 6, 2011 at 11:39 am

    There won’t be a lot of bidders because there aren’t many franchises that can play that game at the Yankees’ level. But if the Red Sox show any interest at all, the Yankees have no choice but to cave.

    And of course, ewen if the Red Sox have no interest, they’ll start bidding just to make sure the Yankees pay through the nose.

    I wish the Yankees would alter their policy, at least this once, and renegotiate the contract before the opt out comes up. It would be so much smoother.

    [Reply]

    MJ Recanati Reply:
    July 6th, 2011 at 11:48 am

    “But if the Red Sox show any interest at all, the Yankees have no choice but to cave.

    And of course, ewen if the Red Sox have no interest, they’ll start bidding just to make sure the Yankees pay through the nose.”

    Agreed, although there’s a limit to the effectiveness of this strategy because (a) it’s somewhat transparent and (b) a reasonable top of the market has already been established with the Cliff Lee deal so it’s not like the Red Sox will come out and blow the Phillies/Lee deal out of the water just to make the Yankees climb even higher.

    Ultimately, I expect Sabathia will top Lee’s deal by a little bit in terms of AAV, just as he topped Johan Santana’s AAV by a little bit a few years ago.

    “I wish the Yankees would alter their policy, at least this once, and renegotiate the contract before the opt out comes up. It would be so much smoother.”

    Again, agreed. However I wonder if Sabathia would even be interested in discussing a contract extention since, at his current Cy Young pace, he’s only driving up the price if he waits the Yankees out until November/December.

    [Reply]

    Professor Longnose Reply:
    July 6th, 2011 at 12:15 pm

    I agree with your codiciles.There’s only so much the Red Sox can do, but they can pretty much make sure the Yankees don’t get a bargain.

    On the resigning before the end of the season, I don’t see that as a way for the Yankees to save money, just for them to look good. They save Sabathia from having to be the bad guy and publicly opt out, they save themselves from looking like they’re reacting to any potential Red Sox bids, they save all the fans panicking, they don’t have to read all the editorials about who’s the villain. They maintain they’re Imperial placidity, and they not only crush the opposition, they crush the hope that the opposition will even have any hope. Even if it’s not any cheaper, it would be smoother.

    And then in the off-season, when they give Pujols an opt-out clause, everyone will just say, “So what? It didn’t matter with Sabathia.”

    [Reply]

    MJ Recanati Reply:
    July 6th, 2011 at 12:35 pm

    “On the resigning before the end of the season, I don’t see that as a way for the Yankees to save money, just for them to look good…”

    Agree with that, and everything that came after that. 100%.

    “And then in the off-season, when they give Pujols an opt-out clause, everyone will just say, “So what? It didn’t matter with Sabathia.””

    I’m totally tone-deaf when it comes to humor on the internet so I can’t tell if you’re being serious or joking around about the Yanks signing Pujols. I don’t see it and, frankly, I don’t even see the purpose.

    [Reply]

    Professor Longnose Reply:
    July 6th, 2011 at 12:49 pm

    For an old fart, I’ve embraced the internet, but I refuse to use emoticons. So you’re just going to have to wonder.

    [Reply]

  4. Bryan says:
    July 6, 2011 at 12:05 pm

    Don’t forget that the Yankees offered Lee 6 years. CC could definitely try to use that as leverage.

    [Reply]

    MJ Recanati Reply:
    July 6th, 2011 at 12:12 pm

    Very good point. If that’s the case, we’re looking at 6Y/$150M which would give Sabathia a slight raise over Lee’s $24M AAV (not including his $12.5M buyout which pushes him up to $26.5M AAV).

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    T.O. Chris Reply:
    July 7th, 2011 at 8:08 am

    Really they offered Lee 3 deals, one for 5, one for 6, and one for 7, with varying money totals. Knowing this CC could look for the 7 year deal. Depends on if he want the extra millions, or the extra year.

    [Reply]

  5. roadrider says:
    July 6, 2011 at 12:48 pm

    “Sabathia tallied 24 swings and misses last night, seven of which came on his fastball, which averaged 95.58 MPH (!!) and topped out at 97.5 (!!!). The other fourteen (!!) whiffs came on his slider”

    I’m not a mathematician (nor do I play one on TV) but doesn’t 7 + 14 = 21?

    Did some of the whiffs come on other pitches or are the tallies for fastball and slider whiffs wrong?

    As for the CC opt-out question – unless they’ve got a deal for King Felix or Justin Verlander (neither of whom is LH) in the works they have to pay him what he wants. When you’re selling tickets ranging up to $2500 and $10 beers to 40,000+ fanatics 81 times a year (plus the playoffs) and reaping in duffel bags full of cable dollars that would put Tony Montana to shame you can’t plead poverty with the guy who is accounting for roughly 20% of your wins.

    [Reply]

    MJ Recanati Reply:
    July 6th, 2011 at 2:32 pm

    “When you’re selling tickets ranging up to $2500…and reaping in duffel bags full of cable dollars that would put Tony Montana to shame you can’t plead poverty with the guy who is accounting for roughly 20% of your wins.”
    In fairness, I don’t believe the Yankees have ever plead poverty or demonstrated that they wouldn’t spend whatever it took to sign a player they felt vital to their chances a World Series championship.

    [Reply]

  6. nyyankeefanforever says:
    July 6, 2011 at 5:15 pm

    This one’s a no-brainer. Even if he didn’t have an opt-out I’d want to renegotiate an extension for him. He’s more of a horse and healthier than Lee ever was or anybody else coming onto the market in the near future, and whatever the market says he’s worth will be the new bellwether. So let his agent Greg Genske test the market, get his best offer, then top it off and re-sign him. No way is anybody else besides us going to to be able to lock him in — even at his current per annum — for more than five years. And even if he wants six or seven, I’ll take the three to four likely great years we all know he has left in him along with the two or three declining ones at the tail end any day. It’s the Yankee way, and what I’m sure will happen anyway. Nothing wrong with that.

    [Reply]

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