The Case for Freddy,Sergio and Bartolo

By On February 15, 2011 · 18 Comments · In General Musings

I don’t like . Anyone who’s read my work for a long time knows that I can’t stand the guy. He gets ground balls, but that’s basically the only plus. He gives up too many homers and he doesn’t strike people out. Every time he gives up a hit, I feel like it’s a rocket. Obviously, that’s confirmation bias to the extreme, but I’ll make an exception for Mitre (jeez, I’m really busting on this guy, huh? Maybe I should stop.).

I’m rather ambivalent when it comes to . It’s a minor league deal for a guy who’s been hurt, but has had a good deal of success in the Majors. There will be a slew of fat jokes when he pitches. is probably the “best” of the bunch, though that’s obviously a relative term. is also up for a spot in the rotation and in a vacuum, I may feel like giving the job to him. But, baseball doesn’t exist in a vacuum. should not be in the rotation on Opening Day and he shouldn’t be in the bullpen either.

This isn’t necessarily and indictment of Mr. Nova. I’m not his biggest fan in terms of prospect-ness, but I understand that he has the potential to be, at the very least, a useful piece for the Yankees. I won’t hesitate to say for one second that I think he’ll pitch a pretty significant amount of innings for the Yankees in 2011. However, I don’t think he should break camp with the team.

A rather big part of me thinks that Nova can–and may–out perform the other three pitchers mentioned in this piece. Nova has, for what this is worth, the best looking projections out of bunch. Like most other things, though, this is a matter of deployment of resources and logistics.

The possibility of the three-headed Garlonitre monster flopping is pretty big. But at the same time, there’s a just-big-enough chance that they could be useful in their roles. If that big chance of floppage and the small chance of success exists, why do I want Nova away from the team to start? Because the Yankees should burn their bridges with the veterans before turning to Nova. Ivan has options (but does he make basket?) and could use some extra polishing in Scranton before joining the team. That’s pretty much the only reason why I want the Yankees to break camp with as the fourth starter and the “winner” of the vs. battle as the fifth starter, with the loser as the long reliever. That way, when one (or more) of them starts to be ineffective or gets hurt, Nova can be called upon to take his place. If the Yankees break camp without Garcia or Colon (unlikely) and lose one (or both) of them and Nova has a poor start or gets hurt, then where can they go? There are options in guys like Hector Noesi and David Phelps, but they need more time in AAA before they can be counted on for any sort of productive innings. My half-hearted desire to see all three of , , and on the Yankees’ Opening Day roster represents a bit of a lay up. It’s the safer bet.

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18 Responses to The Case for Freddy,Sergio and Bartolo

  1. steveo says:
    February 15, 2011 at 12:16 pm

    is all of Yankee land sold on the baby the prospects to the extreme approach?

    Reply
    • Moshe Mandel says:
      February 15, 2011 at 12:20 pm

      From what I’m reading, Matt’s argument really doesn’t have much to do with babying Nova. It is more about losing the vets if you go with the youngsters to start the season.

      Reply
  2. The Captain says:
    February 15, 2011 at 12:34 pm

    Big +1 for the “Eddie” reference in the post.

    Bonus point for whoever can name the former NBA player who played Ivan in the movie.

    Reply
  3. Scout says:
    February 15, 2011 at 12:58 pm

    The logic of the post escapes me. I want the Yankees to head north with the staff that gives them the best chance to win this year, without putting at risk the long-term career of any pitcher. Nova, unlike the other youngsters, faces no innings limit. Although his secondary offerings still need work, as a starter in the Bronx he will continue to refine them, much as Hughes did last year. At a certain point, the best learning experience for a young pitcher is to remove the trainign wheeles and let him face major league hitters and figure out what it takes to retire them. Nova is at that point. If he falters, then he can transition to the bullpen and another kid can take his place.

    None of the other three older pitchers offers significant upside. They are placeholders, nothign more. Garcia’s track record makes it likely he’ll earn the other rotation spot. Colon and Mitre can fight it out for long man in the bullpen. Unless Colon sparkles in spring training and shows he’s discovered the fountain of youth, he is unlikely to make the roster.

    Reply
    • Moshe Mandel says:
      February 15, 2011 at 1:08 pm

      I see the logic. In fact, Joel Sherman made a similar argument this morning. If the 4 pitchers perform similarly in Spring Training, the idea is to make the move that leaves you with the most options, and that is to send Nova down. Obviously, if one of those 3 is terrible and/or Nova is really good, he should make the team.

      Reply
    • Sir Not Appearing In This Blog says:
      February 15, 2011 at 1:14 pm

      Like the first commentor, you’re not getting the jist of this post, which I think is a logical theory in how resources can be used.

      By using Nova out of the gate you are limiting the number of choices you have going forward.

      The only thing I wonder about is, if those veterans are not on the roster at the end of spring training will they all leave? Does Mitre have any options? Would he have to clear waviers? I’m sure Garcia and Colon will be gone if not given a roster spot.

      Reply
      • Moshe Mandel says:
        February 15, 2011 at 1:15 pm

        Garcia and Colon have outs in their contracts. Mitre would have to clear waivers, as far as I can tell.

        Reply
        • Sir Not Appearing In This Blog says:
          February 15, 2011 at 1:26 pm

          Okay, so I definately think the best case scenario is what Matt outlined above. Basically, all 4 pitchers pitch well enough (or Nova performs the worse of the bunch) that the Yankees have the luxury of a ready-to-go starter pitching in Scranton.

          The odds of all 3 of the veterans looking good is another story.

          Reply
  4. high horse says:
    February 15, 2011 at 1:22 pm

    like the 2nd to last commenter I will tell you all weather you understand this post or not and regard my logic as superior to all others

    Reply
  5. RL says:
    February 15, 2011 at 4:48 pm

    If the Garlonitre monster is performing at the same level (or close enough to) Mr. Nova, I agree with the logic of riding that horse until it fails. Since Colon and Garcia have outs, why not use them and let Ivan get a bit more seasoning in AAA at the beginning of the season? If they leave prior to the season, it’s one less option the team has to carry them over till the trading deadline comes around. A deal will be made. Best to have as many options until the deal is done. Nice article. The site looks good! Best of luck, guys!

    Reply
  6. oldpep says:
    February 15, 2011 at 11:51 pm

    My hope is that Nova shows enough to be in the rotation and opens the season there. I understand the ‘options’ idea, but sometimes hedging your bets isn’t as good an idea as letting a guy like Nova start the season with the knowledge that the brass has full confidence in you. Sending him down and then having him recalled only when Colon (etc) crashes and burns isn’t the message I’d want to send him: ‘well, every washed up arm we could run out there failed, so I guess you get a shot now.’

    Reply
  7. Reaffirming My Position On the Rotation | New York Yankees blog, Yankees blog, A blog about the New York Yankees | The Yankee Analysts says:
    March 16, 2011 at 11:13 am

    [...] know what you’re saying: Yeah, you told us this already–depth and what not–but with the injury to Sergio Mitre, shouldn’t that improve Nova’s chances of [...]

    Reply

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