As you’ve heard by now, the Yankees declined their 2012 option on 2007 first round pick . We all know the story: Brackman was a huge, if flawed, talent coming out of North Carolina State and the Yankees took a gamble on him even though they knew he’d need Tommy John Surgery before even throwing a pitch.
When Brackman did hit the field in 2009, the results were mixed, but encouraging. He pitched 106.2 innings in Charleston and struck out 8.7 batters per nine innings, but also walked 6.4 per nine. In 2010, something seemed to click. He split time between Tampa and Trenton and slashed his walk rate while maintaining his strikeout rate. Then 2011 happened and the wheels fell off when the Brackmonster reached Scranton.
I think we can draw one obvious conclusion from this move: the Yankees see the 40-man roster spot vacated by Brackman as more valuable than Brackman himself. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yankees re-signed Brackman to a minor league deal and continued to develop him, this time without the (admittedly small pressure) of having Brackman on a Major League deal. Of course, it’s just as easy that some other team, perhaps in more of a position to take a risk, signs Brackman to a Major League deal and tries to find out what will stick if he gets a whole year in the majors.
it stands to follow that many people will call this a huge mistake and a move that the Yankees shouldn’t have made in the first place. I couldn’t disagree more. Despite the health risk, Brackman was a top-tier talent in the 2007 draft. The Yankees very rarely get a shot at that top first round talent because they tend to pick in the high 20′s or low 30′s when it comes to the draft. This was a shot they absolutely had to take. It didn’t work out–most things don’t when it comes to the baseball draft–but I’m totally fine with the move in the first place.
Here’s what the other TYA writers think of the move:
Brad: They aren’t going to let him waste a bullpen spot in the Majors, they can’t put him in the SWB rotation and take a spot away from Phelps, Mitchell, Warren, ManBan, Betances, and maybe Noesi. And sending him to any level lower than that to try and get himself together is just taking away a spot from one of their younger, more up and coming guys. The dude is basically a sunk cost at this point.
Eric: Now that Brackman has been released, everyone is rushing to pat themselves on the back for criticizing the pick back in 2007, and ripping the Yankees for drafting/signing him. I agree that Brackman has been a bust so far and that giving him a major league contract was terrible for his development. It’s easy to rip the pick in hindsight given everything that has happened to him, but I still don’t necessarily think that it was that bad of a pick.
Looking at who was selected after Brackman in the 2007 draft, there is not much in the way of impact players until you get to Jordan Zimmerman and Mike Stanton in the second round (though Travis d’Arnaud in 1S looks pretty good too). It’s not like they missed out on the possibility of drafting several great players by taking Brackman, I’m not sure who their alternative would have been (though I’m pretty sure Stanton wasn’t on anybody’s radar there).
The bust rate of late 1st-rounders is pretty high and usually the only way to get a high-ceiling player in that slot is to take on some risk. The Yankees did that by taking a relatively inexperienced player with health concerns, but extraordinarily high upside. The Yankees should be looking to acquire potential stars in the draft, since they can fill in other positions via free agency with their financial resources, so I don’t mind them making some risky selections on guys with star upside. A pitcher with Brackman’s upside would never fall to the Yankees without injury, and as some of you may remember, he was considered a legitimate top-5 talent going into his junior season. I’m fine with the process, even if the result didn’t end up the way the Yankees would have liked.
Brackman clearly made too much money and underperformed, but I am not ready to completely write him off as having a major league career. Another 6’10″ pitcher did not get his major league walk rate below 4.8 until his age 28 season, and he turned out ok (I’m talking about Randy Johnson). Brackman clearly had issues with inexperience, mechanics, and health, as well as possibly psychological issues due to lack of confidence. He probably needs a change of scene, but I still think he has a shot to be a decent major league pitcher.
Matt Warden: Completely agree with what Brad said. There are plenty of prospects that simply don’t pan out. Sometimes, the smart move is cutting losses. Besides, there is no law saying the team can’t resign him at a more reasonable price.
Steve S.: Th[e] decision tells me they thought he wasn’t worth the 1 mil option or the 40 man roster spot, both of which I think are inarguable at this point. They could bring him back as a minor league FA, but I think that’s doubtful. He will want to go somewhere he can get a fresh start, if he wants to continue pitching. From what I’ve read, he’s a sensitive guy who gets down on himself, I won’t be surprised if he quits baseball altogether.
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Can you give me some idea of why the roster spot is worth more than Brackman? Who do the Yankees need to keep on it? Who is at risk in the rule 5 draft? What[‘s the current ceiling on Brackman, and what are the odds he ever has a major league career?
The Yankees will probably want to save that spot for guys like Phelps and D.J. Mitchell, who have both proven to be more consistent pitching options than Brackman. I don’t know about Phelps, but I believe Mitchell is Rule 5 eligible this year.
And they still need to keep some 40-man flexibility for any new players they add this offseason via FA or trades. Brackman was unfortunate to be the one who had to be sacrificed, but he could find some success if he catches on somewhere else.
Well at least Porcello hasn’t developed into an ace (or a top of the rotation starter) just yet. I remember hoping he’d slip to the Yankees and being so upset when Detroit took him and we had to settle for Brackman. Porcello is providing some major league vaule at this time though. Still can’t blame the Yankees for that obviously, and I liked the Brackman gamble.
Yeah, I had to think that the Yankees had their heart set on Porcello, and were probably somewhat surprised that the Tigers took him.
My prospect hugging self is sad to see the Yankees let Brackman go, but my rational side says they must know what they are doing and given his inconsistencies and the fact that he had only one option year left I don’t think they could continue to develop him as a starter under that contract. If they felt that only having a year of further development makes him a reliever, then he’s a pretty expensive one for being so unproven. I’d like to see them resign him to a minor league contract if it gives him more development time. That’s probably not that realistic though. He’ll probably sign somewhere else where he’d get more opportunities and face less pressure to perform immediately.
I haven’t seen many call the Brackman pick a huge mistake. The major league contract probably was, especially given his injuries, relative inexperience, and all we know about how tall pitchers need more time to work on mechanics/repeatable delivery. If the $11 million paid to date is really accurate, that also seems a little rich. Brackman was a talent that doesn’t normally fall to the Yankees in the draft but he wasn’t a generational talent or even top 5 talent in the draft, and that is a lot of money. Of course, if he had panned it out would seem like a super investment. If people are really criticizing the pick though, I’d say it’s worth noting that it is hard to be critical of both the Brackman pick and the Bichette/Culver picks. Brackman was very highly rated by the prognosticators like BA/Klaw/Sickels/etc and most of the disappointment among fans with the Bichette/Culver picks was that there were a lot of guys ranked higher by these prognosticators still on the board.
I think this is the year that Phelps/Mitchell need to be added to the 40 man or exposed to the draft. I think there are 1 or 2 others like Corban Joseph but I doubt that was the major reason behind the move. They still had 5 spots available on the 40 man and they don’t really need to keep all of Kevin Whelan (who didn’t even get a Sept callup) or Greg Golson and Justin Maxwell (both out of options). Also Phelps/Mitchell are more organizational depth than true prospects. I don’t think anyone projects Mitchell as more than a middle inning reliever and Phelps gets very mixed reports. I recently read one scout say that he was in AZ to try to earn the 40 man spot but the MPH on his fastball was down and all of his secondary offerings were below average. That scout didn’t think he would get protected. My guess is he does now but I’m not sure he’s really much of a prospect either.
His control just pitched him right out of the rotation, and he’s done a lot less “wow’ing” than he has dissapointing. The potential was there so I don’t think you can fault the pick. Just a gamble that didn’t work out for us.