Who is Trade Bait?

C.C. Sabathia has re-signed. That’s awesome, and gives the Yankees some certainty heading into the free agent period. We’ve discussed at length here quite a bit about those free agent options – Yu Darvish and C.J. Wilson on the high end, Mark Buerhle and Freddy Garcia on the low end. While I find things attractive about each of those options individually, none are without their flaws. I think that if the Yankees want to seriously upgrade their rotation for 2012 and beyond, they will need to swing a trade.

There’s a lot of types of guys that we could trade for. I expect guys like James Shields, Matt Cain and Zach Greinke to have their names come up as potential targets over time, but others could easily surface. The Yankees would strongly benefit from a 1-year trade commitment, not only because of the strong potential from Manuel Banuelos, Dellin Betances, and others in the farm system to contribute at some point from the second-half of 2011 forward, but also because any loss to the prospect base would be offset with two extra picks in the 2012 draft. The Yankees have a deep and varied farm system, and I think that they have plenty of surplus to trade.

Here’s my philosophy: the Yankees have very specific needs that most teams do not. There are players who could be useful to a 2nd-division team like the Pirates, Padres, or even (I love saying this) the Mets, but not to a team that expects to win the World Series every season. Furthermore, the Yankees can go out and buy their replacements in ways that others may not be able to. They should sell players that they can replace on the free agent market.

Obvious caveats include that no prospect or player is ever untouchable, but I want to separate our major trade pieces into two groups: guys to hold on to and trade bait. Here are the notable names that I would and would not trade.

Trade Bait

Nick Swisher: – I like Nick Swisher. He’s an underrated hitter, a solid defender, and is on a reasonable contract. He’s a likely Type-A after his contract is up, meaning he will be worth draft picks if the Yankees decide to let him go. I think there are two advantages to Swisher as trade bait: 1) There are potential short-term replacements for him on the free agent market in Carlos Beltran and Josh Willingham, among others, 2) He’d allow the Yankees to make a strength-for-strength trade. The Giants or White Sox could use additional offense, and would both be in a position to trade a 2013 free agent starting pitcher for Swisher. In the Giant’s case, the Yankees would have to sweeten the pot for Matt Cain, but not nearly as much as they would if they were going a straight prospects-for-pitcher trade.

Phil Hughes – I’ve been personally invested in Phil Hughes for some time now. I’ve never been as underwhelmed by his future potential as I am now. The man screams “I need a change of scenery” given his history and talent but current struggles. The National League might be very interested in his services. I think that he would be attractive to what I might call the “desperate” teams – teams with some money to burn looking to take a bit of a gamble. Think about the Washington Nationals, or even the Arizona Diamondbacks.

D.J. Mithcell – He’s not a big name, but I think the Yankees would be very smart to dangle him as a sweetener to a larger trade or as an important piece in a smaller trade. Mitchell is coming off a very strong season as a ground ball-inducing starting pitcher at Triple-A. He’s moved fast, and he’s healthy. However, I think he’s overvalued as a starting pitcher. Mitchell has never had great peripherals, and has always struggled with left-handed batters. I think he’s a future middle inning MLB relief pitcher, or a fringe starting pitcher. He’d appeal to the same sort of people that Ross Ohlendorf appealed to when he was traded years ago.

Gary Sanchez I’m probably going to draw the most flack for this one. Ask yourself the question, of the Yankee super-prospects (Montero, Betances, Banuelos, Sanchez, arguably Mason), who would you like to trade? Of that group, Gary Sanchez is the no-brainer. He’s a sexy prospect who could one day become a perennial MVP candidate, but he’s also got his risk and flaws attached to him. However, he’s a true piece of value that will draw interest from GMs. I think about some other centerpiece prospects of major trades for a starting pitcher, and Sanchez reminds me quite a bit of Phillip Aumont, whom the Mariners sent to the Phillies, but better and slightly less of a gamble. The Yankees are obviously strong at the catcher position, and have a very similar prospect in Jesus Montero.

Chris Dickerson, Brandon Laird, Eduardo Nunez, Francisco Cervelli, etc – They’re bench players. They are easily replaceable with a decent free agent paycheck, as we saw with Andruw Jones and Eric Chavez. The Yankees can afford to fill those spots with money much moreso than other teams. They should do so, and aggressively market their bench players to 2nd-division teams who may offer them a little more playing time.

Angelo Gumbs, Brett Marshall, Abraham Almonte, Pat Venditte, David Phelps, Rob Segedin, Chase Whitley – These guys are solid little guys to have in your farm system, but no real barriers to trades. They will be the types thrown in to any transaction.

Do not dangle

Brett Gardner – I’ve made this argument on this site a bit, so I’m not going to restate. He’s likely undervalued in the baseball marketplace, is under team control for a long time, and helps out on the defensive side of things, which could help compensate for the mistakes of poor pitchers.

Jesus Montero – Others on this site have advocated to trade him. I’m 100% against it. Jesus Montero, regardless of the position he ends up playing, offers us a chance for a true middle-of-the-order superstar hitter to replace the aging Yankee core. There’s tremendous value in a cheap, team-controlled player who will stay with the Yankees throughout his prime. If he can man catcher for 50 games a year, all the better. There are very few players that the Yankees could potentially acquire or are currently on the payroll that are good bets to be productive parts of the 2014-2015 teams, but Montero is. Keep him.

Betances and Banuelos – History tells us that even highly skilled pitchers who have reached Triple-A at a fairly young age still have somewhere around a 50% success rate. The Yankees have the luxury of having two high ceiling future starting pitchers sitting at Triple-A, and have obvious future needs at the position. Trading one leaves you open to a lot more risk of no replacement high-ceiling starting pitcher coming out of the farm system any time soon. We saw with the Hughes/Chamberlain/Kennedy trio why you should spread your bets wide.

Mason Williams – I feel like the Yankees would value Williams more than a lot of other teams. He’s super far down in the minor leagues, and has an impressive athletic skill set. However, its worth noting that just a year and a half ago no team valued him nearly as much as the Yankees, as he dropped to the 4th round. Mason Williams is another potential superstar prospect in the making, and I think there’s a big advantage for the Yankees to hold him for at least some time in full season ball to see what they have.

Austin Romime – He pairs well with Jesus Montero. He’s looking more and more like a guy who could be a starting catcher, but probably not one that lends value to a championship team. Romine is better than a backup, but not quite a starting catcher. Sounds like a great guy to play those other 100 games that Montero doesn’t.

Adam Warren, Hector Noesi – The Yankees need real pitching depth, and these guys are the best of the lot. Unlike Phelps and Mitchell, they look ready to provide some value in the AL East as near as next season. I would want at least one of them waiting in the wings at Triple-A as the first call up, and possibly the other in the opening day rotation. You don’t want Dellin Betances or Manuel Banuelos riding the express train between Scranton (or really, seven different cities) and New York. But these guys? Definitely. And they are both good enough to potentially cement themselves long term in New York.

I think the Yankees could build a trade for almost every theoretical trade candidate out there using these parameters. They should do so.