Speculating on the postseason rotation

Now that the Yankees have finally secured their postseason berth, it’s time for rampant speculation regarding the Yankees’ rotation plans for the playoffs. Matt took a quick look last week and concluded that the Yankees would be best served going with a three-man rotation in the first round, which is almost certainly what they’ll do, as they’d only have to start Game 1 starter on short rest once, in Game 4, on Sunday, October 10. Sabathia would then be on full rest to start ALCS Game 1 on Friday, October 15, if the Yankees get there.

Speaking of Sabathia, there seemed to be a fair amount of consternation among the Yankee Twitterati regarding CC’s starting last night’s game, as that put him off schedule and resulted in eight days of rest before next Wednesday’s ALDS Game 1 start. While going with CC yesterday might have been somewhat less ideal than starting him on Friday, I didn’t have a particularly large problem with the move, for a few reasons: (1) As unlikely as the doomsday scenario of the Yankees losing all of their remaining games and the Sox winning all of their remaining games was, the prospect of heading into this weekend’s series at Fenway with the playoffs potentially still on the line would’ve been pretty brutal. Sabathia ensured that wasn’t going to happen; and (2) Sabathia’s a big boy and a veteran Major League pitcher. We can talk all day about how much rest he does or doesn’t need, but the fact is, he’s paid to come up big, and he shouldn’t be fazed by a few extra days of rest. As Moshe pointed out, Sabathia had last October, and that worked out just fine. Additionally, I’d have to imagine getting CC extra rest as opposed to Brew Crew-style is also preferable.

Here’s how Sabathia did for the Brewers at the end of the 2008 season, where he made his last three regular season starts on three days’ rest:

He then started Game 2 of the 2008 NLDS on three days’ rest for the fourth start in a row, and threw 98 pitches over 3 2/3 innings, giving up five earned runs and taking the loss.

On the flip side, as Moshe noted in the aforelinked post, last October Sabathia went out and tossed 8 innings of one-run ball in ALCS G1 and 7 innings of two-run ball in WS G1 after eight days of rest each. So yeah, I’m not overly concerned about CC getting some extra time.

As it was, he didn’t last terribly long in his final tune-up prior to the postseason last year, going only 2 2/3 innings against the Rays and giving up five runs on Friday, October 2, five days before ALDSG1. So while it’s probably unlikely, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that we see CC for a couple of relief innings on Friday just to get some work in.

After Sabathia, of course, the remainder of the ALDS rotation has yet to be announced. Most speculators have already tabbed for Game 2, which is probably the smart money given that that would also line him up to pitch a potential Game 5 if need be. However, the one wrinkle I might throw in there is that we still don’t quite know which Pettitte we’re going to get. Even if he pitches well this weekend, he’ll only have had three starts to get back on track.

Now I’m not saying I don’t trust Andy to be ready — far from it — and there’s almost no one else I’d want on the mound with the season on the line, but I do wonder whether will get any consideration as the possible starter for Games 2 and 5. Given his inexperience, I doubt the Yankees have any interest in throwing Hughes out there — as nice a year as he’s had — with the season potentially on the line, but he’s been such a significantly better pitcher on the road than at home this year (3.52/3.09/3.93 and 0.65 HR/9 road vs. 4.66/5.08/4.66 and 1.69 HR/9 at home), albeit in a slightly skewed sample (69.0 road innings to 106.1 home), that should the Yankees start the ALDS on the road in Minnesota, it could make some sense to consider starting Phil after CC.

of course likely won’t be throwing a single pitch in the ALDS, but should the Yankees advance, they will need a fourth starter unless they determine they’d rather go to battle for a second straight year with a three-man rotation starting on three days’ rest in both the ALCS and the World Series. Between Pettitte’s return from injury and Hughes being in uncharted innings waters, that scenario seems highly unlikely, which means Burnett will unfortunately have to factor into the rotation somewhere. Luckily Burnett is less likely to do irreparable damage as a fourth starter in a seven-game series, as , not to mention the fact that he’ll probably have caddying him. Not that that’s necessarily the greatest comfort in the world, but it’s probably better than pitching meaningful innings.

I’d imagine the ALCS rotation would shake out as something like the following, depending upon whether they start at home or on the road:

Potential ALCS Rotation #1

Friday, October 15, ALCS Game 1: Sabathia
Saturday, October 16, ALCS Game 2: Pettitte/Hughes
Monday, October 18, ALCS Game 3: Pettitte/Hughes
Tuesday, October 19, ALCS Game 4: Burnett
Wednesday, October 20, ALCS Game 5: Sabathia (on regular rest)
Friday, October 22, ALCS Game 6: Game 2 starter (on five days’ rest)
Saturday, October 23, ALCS Game 7: Game 3 starter (on regular rest)

Of course, if the Yankees really don’t trust Burnett and want to maximize their greatest asset, , they could potentially opt to throw the big man three times in the ALCS — a move I would probably endorse, particularly if they end up facing the Rays.

Potential ALCS Rotation #2

Friday, October 15, ALCS Game 1: Sabathia
Saturday, October 16, ALCS Game 2: Pettitte/Hughes
Monday, October 18, ALCS Game 3: Pettitte/Hughes
Tuesday, October 19, ALCS Game 4: Sabathia (on three days’ rest)
Wednesday, October 20, ALCS Game 5: Burnett
Friday, October 22, ALCS Game 6: Game 2 starter (on five days’ rest)
Saturday, October 23, ALCS Game 7: Sabathia (on three days’ rest)

Of course, if the Yankees then made it to the World Series but the ALCS went the distance, Sabathia would have to start Game 1 of the WS on three days’ rest for a third straight start, which is a problem because (a) then there’s no way they’d be able to start him in Games 4 and 7 on three days’ rest each for a second straight series, and (b) as illustrated above, pushing the big man too hard may not be the wisest of moves.

But I’m getting way too far ahead of myself. As of now, expect the ALDS rotation to be Sabathia-Pettitte-Hughes. As frustrating as the starting pitching has been for much of the past two months, that’s a rotation I’ll go to war with any day.