File this under irresponsible rumor mongering if you’d like, but both of this guy was a topic of trade discussion in the TYA world yesterday. The former came about after asked who would hang up first, the Yanks or White Sox, in a theoretical for trade.
My first reaction was to say that the Yankees would. Danks is a hot target and a good fit for the Yankees, but I don’t know if they’d want to create a hole in right field to acquire Danks, when it’s possible that they could get Danks without having to do damage to their Major League team. and chimed into the debate; the former disagreed with me, thinking the White Sox would hang up first and the latter wondered aloud what the Yankees would do to replace Swisher. Let’s take a look at whether or not this deal makes sense.
The Yankees definitely need pitching and Danks is a pitcher they’d like to get. He’s 27 and lefthanded and isn’t bad at pitching. He’s got respectable strikeout numbers and good control. He’s about average when it comes to giving up homers and getting ground balls, but the numbers aren’t damming. Nick Swisher is a good player who’d fit on just about any team, even one he didn’t quite fit on in 2008. There is a fit for him on the White Sox with becoming a free agent. In those regards, this trade makes a little bit of sense. Let’s see what each player, currently, is worth in terms of trade value by running both players through the trade value calculator. For both players, I’m going to put in their 2012 salaries (or a projection for Danks) and average out their last three years of WAR to get their semi-projected WAR number. I’m also going to assume type-A free agent status for both guys. So assuming a 3.7 win season out of Swisher at $10.25M and a 3.5 win season out of Danks at $9M, we come up with trade values of $41.7M for Swish and $50M for Danks, giving us a difference of $8.3M.
Now, we could take out the 2012 projections since we are talking about an offseason trade and we want to know their current value. Perhaps this is an even better way to determine value. If we take out the hypothetical 2012, we have Swisher’s trade value at $34.9 and Danks’s value at $42.8, a $7.9M difference. That’s really not all that much difference and if this trade were to go down with these parameters, the Yankees could make up for the value by throwing in another player or some cash to help cover the difference. While I wouldn’t like to trade Swisher, it could make sense if it’s for Danks. However, the trade cost doesn’t just stop at the players it would take to trade for the White Sox’s lefty.
We also have to factor in the cost to replace Nick Swisher in right. The Yankees could go a few ways here. One is that they could sign . He’d probably require a salary similar to that of Swisher, but would require a multi-year contract. At his age with his knees, I don’t think that would be wise.
They could go a cheaper route, though, and use and bring in a platoon partner. This platoon partner could be someone super cheap like , but I can’t see the Yankees giving a lot of at bats to him. The free agent market for lefty-hitting outfielders isn’t fantastic, but I think the Yankees could probably still fit Jones and another player in under $10.25M (Swisher’s salary for 2012). Production might suffer in this scenario, though.
I also think there’s a “have your cake and eat it, too” scenario. This scenario involves keeping Swisher while using prospects to trade for Danks. Because Danks is set to be a free agent, the Yankees may be able to save a bit on prospect cost. For Danks, I’d be willing to trade just about any prospect short of Manny Banuelos or Jesus Montero.
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Matt, if that theoretical trade were to happen wouldn’t it really solve a couple of issue for the Yankees?
First, they get their quality starter definitely a #3 and he’s a lefty. They sign him to a long term deal and eliminate the need for the Yankees to go shopping for a pitcher for the next several year.
They move Swisher and while for the 2012 season moving Swisher would present some minor inconveniences he’s probably gone at the end of the 2012 season anyway. Couldn’t a combination of Jones/Dickerson hold down the fort for 1 year? The 2013 FA class looks very, very promising with Ethier and Kemp probably hitting hitting FA. Even if they had to rework the outfield positions of Gardner and Granderson to accommodate a Kemp signing. Just a thought.
This all makes a lot of sense.
Are better pitchers than Danks likely to be available next year?
Probably. But there are no guarantees. That plus the fact if you’re the Yankees management and believe as apparently they do that Nova has upside and the “young” prospects (Banuelos and Betances) have very good starter rotation potential in 2013. Why wait until 2013 and pay one of those “other” starters over a $100M plus. Between Danks and what’s available in house in 2013 that could solve all of the Yankees pitching issues for years to come and keep their overall payroll for starting pitchers relatively low affording the Yankees to do “other” things and still keep their payroll under that magical $210M number that seems to be their high water mark.
There are a lot of guys set to be available: Cain, Floyd (option), Greinke, Hamels, Haren (option), Hudson (option), Lewis, Liriano, McCarthy, Anibal Sanchez, Jonathan Sanchez, and Shields (option).
Matt, Hamels probably isn’t going anywhere. The Phillies would be foolish to let him get away. Liriano is toast. Haren’s option is relatively cheap if you consider if it’s not picked up there is a $3.5M buyout. Tim Hudson’s a possibility but isn’t he getting a little long in the tooth? At 37 during the 2013 season. Floyd’s Ok but he’s not a lefty and is he any better option than Danks? Cain sure who wouldn’t love to have Cain but he’s probably going to cost a lot of money. Greinke, apparently the Yankees an several other have doubts about his ability to handle NY. Shields isn’t going to come to the Yankees. In my opinion Danks if a trade were possible may be the best practical option for the Yankees. Besides all of those pitchers are very likely to cost a draft pitch or more. The only thing the Danks deal cost is moving Swisher 1 year sooner then his like to leave anyway. Just my opinion.
Yeah, that’s why I said “set” to be available. I’m assuming most of those guys won’t be on the Yankees’ list for various reasons.
That makes a lot of sense. I just don’t think the White Sox would go for it…
I can’t see the White Sox giving away Nick Swisher and then a couple of years later trading Danks for him even with Ozzie Guillen gone. If the White Sox make Danks available, there will be lots of good offers so why take Swisher back?
Also, the same reasons why you’d be willing to trade Swisher are other reasons why the White Sox wouldn’t want him that bad. He’s a Free Agent next year and they could sign an OFer instead rather than trade a valuable commodity for one, especially since Swisher isn’t cheap. If they trade Danks, it will probably be for guys they’d control for more than 1 year.
Thanks for the mention, Matt! This is an interesting idea, for sure!
Matt, another question for you. Assuming Swisher has another regular season year in 2012 like he did in 2011. Would you project him to be a Type A Free Agent in 2013? I ask for the obvious reason the Yankees could offer him arbitration, he’d obviously refuse it. The Yankees would then get picks when he resigns somewhere else. The Yankees then in theory could sign let’s say either Kemp or Ethier for an outfield position in 2013 lose their pick(s) and be no worse off for the wear other than salary which might only be about $5M per year +/-. Just was wondering what you or anyone else thought.
Yeah, I definitely think Swisher will hit Type-A status. If Kemp is available, I’d definitely want to go for him. Ethier…eh, not so much. Platoon split, not a good fielder, etc.
Offensively though wouldn’t Ethier being a pretty decent upgrade? As for defense if the Yankees moved Granderson to CF would that mitigate some of Either’s defense that concerns you?
Besides I thought I read somewhere, where switching Granderson and Gardner might be something the Yankees are already considering.
Decent upgrade on what? Swisher? You could argue that Swisher has had 3 consecutive years better than Andre Ethier, and at least been better the last 2 seasons with a close season in 2009.
Andre Ethier
.272/.361/.508, wOBA, .370, 31 HR
.292/.364/.493, wOBA, .367, 23 HR
.292/.368/.421, wOBA .343, 11 HR
Nick Swisher
.249/.371/.498 wOBA .375, 29 HR
.288/.359/.511 wOBA .377, 29 HR
.260/.374/.449 wOBA, .358, 23 HR
Not to mention Ethier would 30 while Kemp would be 28. While 2 years doesn’t seem like a lot, getting two extra years of a better players prime is huge.
I wasn’t or at least didn’t mean to imply Ethier was a better option than Kemp. By no means. I’d take Kemp in a heart beat. I was only addressing the hypothetical of the trade offer in the article. The Yankees could trade Swisher for Danks. With I think no significant downside as I stated in my very first comment of the day here. Then come 2013 it’s seems to be all upside with what Danks would allow the Yankees to do or not do again as I mentioned earlier. Like I said just my opinion.
Just a quick mention you brought up the ages between Ethier and Kemp. Your same conclusion applies to Ethier and Swisher. Ethier being about 17 months younger than Swisher. I also wonder with Ethier batting left handed how many more HR’s he would hit in Yankees Stadium considering the shorter right field porch.
I was simply responding to you saying “Offensively though wouldn’t Ethier being a pretty decent upgrade?”. The answer is No, Ethier wouldn’t be an offensive upgrade at all. Swisher has been the better offensive and defensive player for a 3 year period.
Both Ethier and Kemp however would be signed to long term contracts, and if both are available it’s really not close as to which one you go after. Ethier has pretty much been a platoon player at this point only collecting 465 ABs against lefties in the last 3 years, with a slash line of .215/.279/.329 in that time.
If it came down to Swisher accepting arbitration and signing Ethier to a long term deal, I personally would rather have Swisher on the 1 year deal. At least he plays every day. Sure Ethier might hit more HRs in Yankee stadium, but he will also face tougher pitchers, and some of the toughest lefties in baseball playing in the AL East.
I might even sign BJ Upton over Ethier to be honest. He’d be two years younger, brings great defense, a lot of speed on the base paths, and you could move him to LF, have Gardner start in CF, and move Granderson to RF. That would possibly be the best defensive outfield in baseball.
BJ has been a inconsistent with the bat, but he has LF type power (he’s hit 23 and 24 HRs in a season). A team of vets might make him more accountable, and help him focus.
I do think the Yankees offer Swisher arbitration at the end of 2012 knowing full well he’s unlikely to take. At least that’s my opinion. He’s going to get a multi year deal at the end of 2012 I just don’t think it will be with the Yankees.
As for playing everyday there really hasn’t been that much of a difference over the last 3 years (11 game difference and 15 game difference in 2010 and 2011 in favor of Swisher and a 10 game difference in 2009 in favor of Ethier in 2009). Also, some of that difference in Swishers favor can be attributed to him DH’ing an option Ethier doesn’t enjoy in the NL but would if he were to sign with an AL team.
Like I said just thoughts but I like the idea of Danks being a Yankee and that really was the whole premiss of the article.
By everyday player I simply meant someone who won’t be a platoon. Ethier is awful against left handed pitching, and he wouldn’t be playing against left handed pitching most of the time. So you would have to have a RH’ed platoon player to go along with Ethier. With Swisher he is both a right and left handed player, since he switch hits.
I would like to have Danks as well, for the right price. I simply disagree that Ethier represents any kind of upgrade on Swisher, and there are a few other options I would sign over him in the 2013 free agent class.
Chris, I guess we will just have to wait and see what route the Yankees decide to take come the 2013 season w/Swisher and Danks should he be made available. It will be interesting.
I forget where I saw it, but I could have sworn I saw something on another site within the last week or 2 that suggested a Romine-Phelps combo for Danks.
Matt, do you think that would get it done for the White Sox? And if so, would you rather make that move than trade Swish?
If that gets it done, I’d rather do that than trade Swisher. I like Romine, but I’m not nearly as high on him as others. I’m, frankly, surprised he hasn’t been traded yet. I’m not sure if that gets it done, though. If I’m the White Sox, I want someone a little more exciting than Phelps to go along with Romine.
The White Sox would either have to really love Romine, or want to get out from under Danks right away.