The Yanks have declared Bartolo Colon fit (ahem) to return from the DL on schedule from his hamstring pull, and he’s scheduled to pitch in this afternoon’s contest facing the Mets. The first shoe to drop came last night, when Joel Sherman tweeted that Hector Noesi appears to be the odd man out.
Joel Sherman
Heard that to get Colon on 25-man roster tom, will send down Noesi to keep him stretched as starter at Triple-A
No surprise there, that was the easy choice. He hasn’t pitched much, as the long man in the Yankee pen with a rotation that has been very solid in delivering length and quality all month. While he’ll be starting in SWB to keep him as a long man option for the MLB club, he lacks a true out pitch, and at times struggles to put batters away. Hector needs more time in AAA to find a formula that will be effective at the MLB level. If the plus breaking pitch never arrives, he may be able to be an effective MLB reliever by cutting and sinking the fastball. Whether he’s a starter or reliever long term, that’s something to be worked out at AAA, not here.
But the real decision comes when Phil Hughes arrives. He’s close, his rehab has gone well and he declared himself ready after his last outing, although Brian Cashman implied he may need one more. Brian may be saying that not solely based on Phil’s readiness, but knowing the roster problem he will be presented with when he has to activate Hughes. They will have 6 starters for 5 rotation slots, and a palate of unpleasant options to remedy that. Forget about sending Phil to the bullpen, the Yanks have already shot down that idea.
For the time being, they’re toying with the idea of a 6 man rotation. It makes some sense temporarily. With the All Star break just 8 days away and no off days in the interim, it’s the same schedule that everyone would be on with a 5 man and an off day. Coming out of the ASB, there are no off days for the first 2 weeks, so you could even continue going with a 6 man for most of the month of July. There’s no doubt their veteran starters (Colon, Garcia) would benefit from extra rest between starts, and with Hughes returning from a persistent dead arm he may benefit as well. But the longer you do this, the more starts you take away from your ace CC Sabathia, which is unacceptable. a 6-man also presents roster problems, carrying an extra pitcher means one less man on the bench. You could also wind up needing to use one of your starters in relief in certain situations, should your bullpen get fried the day before. Getting through a rough part of the schedule and delaying a tough decision is one thing, but you won’t see a 6 man rotation for the rest of the season. The Yanks are hoping this is one decision that takes care of itself, but what if it doesn’t?
Right now, the Yanks are pretty boxed in with roster flexibility relating to their pitchers. Nova is the only one with options, and the rest have done their jobs effectively. You can’t bump most of them from their current roles without miscasting them or losing them to waivers. I’ll go through each of them individually:
Freddy Garcia-Makes no sense in the bullpen for multiple reasons. In terms of stuff, he doesn’t throw hard or have the stuff of a typical reliever. He’s had multiple shoulder injuries and guys like that tend to warm up slowly. As a junkballer, he needs to see what’s working for him that day for a few batters before figuring it out. Not good for relief purposes. He was asked about pitching in relief this spring, and he had no interest in doing so. He either starts, or you cut him. There’s a good likelihood he’d request being released, he’s pitching on a 1 year deal and I’d expect he would like to build his value for a guaranteed deal next season.
Luis Ayala-Journeyman reliever who’s pitched well (1.38 ERA, 1.192 WHIP) for the Yanks this year. With Soriano on the shelf, he’s been the 7th inning man leading to Dave Robertson. Too high in the pecking order to risk losing.
Cory Wade-Pitched well in a tiny sample so far this year, but more interestingly has been used against lefties who are hitless against him thus far. Features a change as his best pitch, which is very tough on lefthanded batters. Has a for his career. Don’t look now, but the 2nd LOOGY may already be on the roster. Not someone you’d cut to make room for a long man.
Boone Logan-Their sole lefthander, who has looked much better of late. The Yanks will spend most of July scanning the trade market looking for a 2nd LHRP, and will probably come up empty since good ones are very hard to find. Going nowhere.
Sergio Mitre-Here’s the most obvious candidate to make room for Nova. Swap one long man for another, and Nova would represent an upgrade in terms of stuff. But why pick Mitre up when you already have Noesi in the bullpen unless you plan on using him? The Yanks like him, were sorry to see him go and reports were Brian Cashman called the Brewers immediately when he became available. Doesn’t sound like someone they want just for a few weeks.
All of this leads me to believe that Nova gets sent to AAA. It allows him to remain stretched out and continue to develop as a starter, albeit against weaker competition. I think we’d all agree Nova has more upside than Garcia, but this year they’ve pitched roughly the same. If you send Nova to the bullpen, you’ll lose someone else who’s been effective to waivers. If you keep him in the rotation, you might as well cut Freddy Garcia. Nova is the only one who has options, so he’s the odd man out if you want to retain the rest of your assets, which is the smart baseball move.
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I think sending Nova down would be an awful decision. What has Phil Hughes done that he automatically deserves to bump this kid? Nova has shown more resiliency and toughness in his brief run, and frankly, his stuff doesn’t even look much worse than Phil’s. At least he can consistently stay near the mid-90s.
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Duh, Innings! Reply:
July 2nd, 2011 at 11:12 am
Word!
The real question is this:
Who would the Red Sox and Rays, the biggest threats to keep the Yankees from making the postseason, rather face, Nova or Hughes? I think both teams would rather face Hughes.
Since when was 2011 an extension/continuation of 2010? I am really sick of reading how Hughes should be back in the rotation based on last year. Last year is over.
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ENOUGH WITH THIS INSANITY ABOUT SENDING IVAN NOVA TO THE BULLPEN OR AAA!!!
IVAN NOVA IS 8-4 WITH A 4.12 ERA. He would be an ace on several teams albeit bad ones, but an ace all the same. That is #3 starter quality pitching in the AL from a fifth starter if you think Colon and Garcia are better than him.
The Yankees should leave the rotation alone / not fix what ain’t broke.
They are playing their very best baseball this year and perhaps since 2009. Moving Nova to the bullpen or AAA would demoralize and anger him.
There are too many negative outcomes from Hughes returning to the rotation, here they are:
1. Hughes and Nova could suck.
2. One could suck and the other could be good (really two negative outcomes for three total.)
There is uncertainly in putting Hughes back in the rotation. He is not an ace or a #2. He probably isn’t a #3 considering his overrated 2010, lousy 2010 postseason against the Rangers (spare me the Twins), and crap 2011. He’s a #4 at best, #5 at worst, unfit to be in the rotation at the very worst. You people who think he’ll pitch like a #3 or better are living in a fucking dream world.
He will not blow away AL hitters, MLB hitters like he blew away AA and AAA hitters.
If a writer asked all the Red Sox everyday players who they’d rather face in a game especially the ALCS, Nova or Hughes, they would all say Hughes, don’t tell me otherwise. Now, you’ll tell me neither Nova or Hughes wouldn’t make an ALCS start, well how do you know? If someone gets hurt one of them will start in the ALCS barring the Yankees trading for a starter who’d start over both.
If the Yankees line up their rotation as Sabathia/Burnett/Colon/Garcia/Nova starting 7/14 and wanted to start Hughes I would do this after 7/18:
Sabathia 7/19 so he pitches on normal rest
Hughes 7/20 @ Tampa Bay
Burnett 7/21
Colon 7/22
Garcia 7/23
Nova 7/24
Sabathia 7/25 (extra day of rest for everyone after Hughes)
Burnett 7/26
Colon 7/27
Off-day 7/28
Garcia 7/29
Sabathia 7/30 on normal rest
Nova 7/31
Hughes 8/1 @ the White Sox
If Hughes blows in his starts, he should be sent back to AAA for more work then called back up in September.
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But Hughes is out of options as well. Ya just want to put em on waivers and lose em?
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Nick Reply:
July 2nd, 2011 at 11:17 am
Scratch that, he has two options remaining. Well I guess we could have our 18 game winner in the minors.
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Duh, Innings! Reply:
July 2nd, 2011 at 11:29 am
18 games won with a 4.19 ERA in 2010. It’s 2011.
His win total last year means nothing cuz he had some of the best if not the best run support in the AL/MLB.
He had an ERA around or just over 5 after his 6-1 start last year, according to Michael Kay.
But you keep thinking 2011 is an extension of 2010 when it isn’t.
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Nick Reply:
July 2nd, 2011 at 11:44 am
Yep, you’re right. Put em on waivers, maybe we’ll get lucky and get a draft pick for the guy.
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Duh, Innings! Reply:
July 2nd, 2011 at 12:02 pm
‘Never said put him on waivers and why would the Yankees put him on waivers when he has two options left?
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Duh, Innings! Reply:
July 2nd, 2011 at 11:24 am
If the Yankees must start Hughes, they should start him in August when the Yankees have only two off-days. I’d give him two starts then to prove he can stay in the rotation and if he sucks, he’s a mopup man/September spot starter for the rest of the season. This is not extended spring training and you cannot give up games when you are in a dogfight with the Red Sox and Rays.
I personally would (try to) trade Hughes for a top-notch reliever a team can’t afford to keep who’d strengthen the Yankees rest of 2011 bullpen and complete next year’s bullpen (the new guy, Rivera, Robertson, Soriano, Logan, Feliciano, and perhaps a re-signed Ayala.)
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smurfy Reply:
July 2nd, 2011 at 12:05 pm
Duh, how do you know Phil will not recover to the quality he showed 2010 first half and 2009 after May?
Don’t give away the store, the young talent that can keep us from being the team that “can’t afford to keep” its pitchers. While I am impressed by your blitzkrieg bullpen plans, they will rebel if we win every year.
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Duh, Innings! Reply:
July 2nd, 2011 at 12:34 pm
How do you know a 0-1, 13.94 ERA in 3 GS pitcher will be a #3 or better starter this year?
He was 10-1, 3.17 in his first 13 starts, 7-7 a .500 pitcher as a starter (his 18th win was a one-inning postseason tuneup against Boston 10/2) thereafter, and he finished with a ERA 1.02 runs higher than what he had in his first 13 starts.
The first half of 2010 is long gone and time you got with the present which is five starters including Nova pitching solidly.
Yeah, my wanting a top-notch reliever to join 2011 bullpen locks Rivera, Robertson, Soriano, Feliciano, Logan, and perhaps Ayala who has a sub-2 ERA so far this year is really “blitzkrieg bullpen plans”, right. C’mon man. I’m not 100% confident in a bullpen without Chamberlain, Soriano, and Feliciano. ‘Know what’s more likely to falter or plain suck between the rotation and bullpen after Mo? The bullpen after Mo. And if Girardi keeps using Mo as his escape hatch every time there’s a ripple in the water (see last night when he thought Noesi would give up 4 or more runs before getting two outs to finish the game), he may not even have Mo at 90% although Mo will probably be that or better in spite of being abused. How do you bring in your closer up 4 runs with 2 outs left to get the win? Why don’t you just send Noesi back to AAA immediately after taking him out if you think he’ll serve up 4 or more runs before getting 2 outs?
Who will “rebel” if the Yankees win every year?
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smurfy Reply:
July 2nd, 2011 at 1:10 pm
The rest of the league will rebel. In 2001, during the playoffs and WS, I travelled hillbilly style to the west coast. Every bar I stopped at had Yankee-haters and give-up defeatists.
I agree with the idea of a strong bullpen, and value relief work so much that I could imagine a team with the Yankees’ hitting AND defense winning with inconsistent starters, but a knockout bullpen.
However, being a bit conservative yet, I recognize the value of developing in-house starting and relief pitching. Rather than trade away potential always for “proven” winners, thus climbing the pay scale, and sometimes treading the pay scale. And blocking off all avenues for advancement, like at 1st, 2cd, 3rd, center. I won’t include left, because I still see Brett as “new.”
The Verducci effect, which Phil is TEMPORARILY blighted with, passes. Look at Verlander’s history and future!
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Compliments, Steve, I appreciate such well organized, and roundly presented analysis. The lack of stats allowed a simpler organization of fact and opinion, drawn from fair attitudes. In fewer words than this compliment, I add.
1) One question: the physical effects of training and performing relief vs starting, eg on the young Hector. Does the frequency of warming and throwing game hard stress him more, than the mental benefits? I can imagine that such a role could help train a pitching psyche to recognize timing and manage stress, as well as allow for the development of a third pitch.
During the Great Joba debate, I wanted to club the J-blowers with Adam Wainwright’s statement that pitching the crunch time of a tightly contested WS didn’t hurt him as a starter, at all; it helped him. Now, he’s got a bum wing, so…
2) You cited Hector’s approach as cutting and sinking fastballs: the similar delivery of a change-up would seem the best complement.
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smurfy Reply:
July 2nd, 2011 at 11:54 am
PS I like the idea of a 6 man rotation-by-committee. Besides CC, I would consult AJ on staying on every fifth day. I like the idea of turning whichever, Nova or Hughes, to the bullpen during the next month, if it gets “fried.”
Late in July when the schedule is less compact, we will see better where Ivan or Phil best serve the team, short term and long. (and what would best serve them)
Has it been noted that Ivan must have an innings limit?
And don’t gimme that bs about playoffs don’t count.
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What’s the deal with Brian Gordon? I know moving him wouldn’t solve the six-starter problem, but it would address the roster spot. Doesn’t he have options remaining? Would he then have an opt out to any team that wanted to put him on the MLB roster, the way the Yankees picked him up from the Phils? Is he good enough to care if we lose him?
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Tom Swift Reply:
July 2nd, 2011 at 12:09 pm
I agree. Gordon is a guy we took a flier on, so losing him won’t be a big hit.
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2010 Phil Hughes was a classic case of “A Tale Of Two Pitchers”.
He was 10-1 with a 3.17 ERA in his first 13 starts against the following teams:
Baltimore 3X, the Mets 2X, Boston 2X, Seattle, Oakland, Chi-Sox, Houston, Cleveland. Not exactly a formidable list. Boston was the only really good team among them, Chicago the second best.
Then he got hammered by Seattle on 6/29: 5 2/3 IP, 10 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 3 SO and it was all downhill from there.
He was 8-7 the rest of the season and finished the season with a 4.19 ERA.
His last win was in relief: one postseason tuneup inning against the Red Sox 10/2, so he was really 7-7, a .500 pitcher, after his 10-1 start / first 13 starts. Hardly a #3 or better.
The last time he struck out at least 7 batters was June 2 and he struck out 6 batters only four times after that. Hardly a strikeout pitcher.
He pitched at least 6 2/3 innings only twice after his first 13 starts: 6 2/3 IP one game, 7 the next. Hardly an ace or #2, or an innings eater.
His best start after his first 13 starts in terms of most IP and least ER was 7/9 vs. no-offense Oakland (7 IP, 1 ER.)
While he did pitch at least 5 innings in all of his starts from 6/29 (14th start) on save one (3 2/3 IP on 8/25), he gave up less than 3 earned runs only twice and at least 4 ER 9 times from 7/4 on.
His ER was greater than his SO 7X and his ER = SO twice from 6/29 on.
He also walked 5 batters 3X and at least 4 batters 4X from 6/29 on.
So please, all you Hughes defenders/cheerleaders, spare me he had a great 2010 and his 18 wins makes him a #2/potential ace. The dude was a .500 pitcher as a starter after his 10-1 start. His final win of 2010 was a freebie. He beat the Twins but sucked against the Rangers in the postseason.
Don’t believe me? Read it for yourself:
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Duh, Innings! Reply:
July 2nd, 2011 at 12:41 pm
I forgot Detroit as a team he faced (once) in his first 13 starts.
He is overrated.
He’s 7-8 as a starter after his first 13 starts last year (7-7 last year plus 0-1 this year.)
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I don’t know how it all of a sudden became “smart baseball” to send down a promising young pitcher who’s doing well and has some upside in order to keep a guy like Garcia who has done well but was never supposed to be anything more than a stop gap. Garcia’s numbers aren’t really all that much better than Nova’s and he’s not going to get better. He’s more likely to turn into a giant pumpkin or get hurt (or some combination of both) after the All-Star break.
If you want to justify sending Nova down – be honest about it. It will be done because it can be done. Don’t try to pretty it up by calling it “smart baseball”.
Oh and by the way Sergio Mitre must have dirty pictures of Joe Girardi. I can’t think of any other explanation of why the Yankees would be so interested in re-acquiring his services. What, the Bridgeport Bluefish couldn’t find a spot for him?
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Duh, Innings! Reply:
July 2nd, 2011 at 5:44 pm
Garcia is not a stopgap, he’s a veteran starting pitcher with a 3.28 ERA for a team who plays in hands down the toughest division in MLB through the first half of the year. That means something. That is not a fluke.
Garcia is gonna turn into a pumpkin based on what? Phil Hughes couldn’t get reinjured? Hughes will automatically be healthy if/when he returns for the Yankees?
Just stop with the Garcia-naysaying people. It’s like you people are hoping and praying Garcia or Nova suck so Hughes can replace one of them.
Garcia is better than Hughes right now and all of 2011, the year the Yankees are playing in.
Let’s say Hughes replaces Nova. If he is not as good as Nova has been this year, the Yankees are fucking up big time.
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roadrider Reply:
July 3rd, 2011 at 9:56 am
Do you actually watch games? Garcia has had success but it’s a mirage. His stuff is almost as unimpressive as Gordon’s. He has used guile and had some good luck on batted balls to achieve what he has. He’s not missing many more bats that Nova and as I pointed out HE’S NOT GOING TO GET BETTER!!!! At best all you can hope for is that the clock doesn’t strike midnight before the end of the season. I think what we’re going to see in the second half is more appearances that end up like his last start against the Red Sox. Or he’ll get hurt – or both.
Let me ask you something. If Nova were out of options would you still keep Garcia and expose Nova to waivers in order to send him down? Even you wouldn’t be dumb enough to do that.
Yes, Hughes could get injured again or be ineffective. CC Sabathia could get hit by a line drive and miss six weeks. I don’t think Freddy Garcia is the answer to either one. I really don’t think that Garcia is doing anything that Warren, Phelps or Noesi couldn’t do if needed and they were actually given a chance.
Freddy Garcia is not going to be a Yankee next year. Ivan Nova will thus his development is far more important than whatever can be squeezed out of Garcia in the dog days. Players are not inanimate chess pieces that can be moved around the board without consequence. The original post ignores the effect that sending Nova down would have on his development.
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
July 2nd, 2011 at 9:21 pm
yeah. he must have some strong stuff on joe g..no reason to bring this guy back
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This situation with Hughes has me flashing back to the whole Joba discussion of not so long ago; ie. young impressive power pitcher who books a promising first season as a starter, then mysteriously loses his power when called upon to summon it over a full second season, then, after a serious curtailment in his innings, he summons it once again albeit in briefer tantalizing flashes. We all know how that worked out.
All major league pitchers started out as great starting pitchers somewhere back in their career arc — until they weren’t, for whatever reason. That’s where relief pitchers come from.
The book is closed on Joba now, he’s a reliever and that’s that. He can’t maintain his velocity over 150-plus innings so he’s now a niche pitcher. Isn’t that the real question the team’s trying to answer in Phil’s case?
I don’t see how a couple of abbreviated minor league starts answers that question concerning Phil. This isn’t about whether his velocity has magically returned to his arm after a couple months of R&R. It’s about discovering if he’s hit his wall as a pitcher and his velocity is destined to fade again over multiple starts. I think that’s a drawn-out experiment that shouldn’t be undertaken with the big club as a lab when we have other pitchers getting the job done.
I think we need to see him start and finish six, seven and eight innings over at least several more turns through the rotation down on the farm. And I think the only reason he’s being rushed back to the big club is for a quick snapshot before the deadline that by definition can’t tell us anything meaningful about the problem he was sent down for in the first place
Further, I think bringing him back up to the big club either as a long reliever OR starter right now is a really risky move that could lead in the long term to a protracted Joba Rules-like mess affecting the entire rotation and in the short term could unnecessarily muddy up Cashman’s needs assessment process come the trade deadline.
With Bartolo’s return, we’re back to a full complement in our rotation and ready to rock the second half. Hughes is still very much an unknown quantity right now and it just seems smarter to leave him down on the farm for awhile until he proves his dead arm is truly alive and will stay that way and we actually need him, rather than disturb a rotation that’s already fully armed and dangerous.
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[...] up. This signals that Hughes will be making his next start. If you’re wondering why its Nova, I explained it [...]