John Heyman had a tidbit about a reliever the Yanks may be targeting earlier this week:
Jon Heyman
like mike adams (0.65 whip), more than k-rod or maybe even heath bell. getting lots of calls, tho.
So who is Mike Adams? A 32 year old, hard throwing reliever who got his start with the Milwaukee Brewers that has really found a home pitching for the San Diego Padres the past four seasons. Once I say “Padres”, I’m sure many readers will think “product of Petco” but his belie that notion. While he’s been off the charts at home, he’s been highly effective on the road as well. Simply put, he’s one of the best setup men in the game today.
What’s he like as a pitcher? He throws a fastball that sits in the mid-90s. He has good control (2.7 BB/9) misses loads of bats (career 9.39 K/9) and a reputation for pitching inside. His fastball/cutter/slider arsenal make him virtually the same whether he’s facing batters. Fangraphs shows his fastball is good, but the Cutter is clearly his best pitch. Manager Bud Black summed up what he brings earlier this year:
“He’s got the fastball inside. He’s got the cutter/slider inside. And he commands the outside of the plate (against right-handed and left-handed batters). The command is good, the stuff is good and the head’s good”
He’s 3rd in the NL for Holds, tied for 4th in MLB at his position in WAR. If not for Heath Bell, he’d probably be closing for the Padres right now. So why would the Padres deal him? Three reasons. Salary, age and health. He’s a 3rd year arb guy next year, with his stellar pitching and final year of team control he would be in line for a big raise over his 2.535 mil he made this year. He’s had a somewhat spotty health record, he missed the entire 2007 season after undergoing knee surgery 3 times (not uncommon, knees are tricky to fix). He had shoulder surgery in 2009, which caused him to miss the first two months of that year. Since then he’s had 15 day DL stints for a fatigued shoulder and a strained oblique. It’s debatable whether any of this has affected his stuff, he’s throwing the ball as well as he ever has in terms of velocity, though the movement on his pitches has shown signs of decline. At 32 years old that’s the type of thing that might inspire a small market team into selling while the value is still high. The Padres may prefer to deal Heath Bell and have Adams close for them, but Adams would fetch more than a high-priced (7.5 mil) rental in Bell. GM Jed Hoyer has always shown a willingness to to deal relievers for help elsewhere. The Padres are starved for offense and positional players that can hit. With an additional year of team control and 2 relatively healthy seasons under his belt, Adam’s trade value may never be higher going forward. From the Yankee perspective, even if the stuff has suffered a bit he should have plenty left in the tank for a year and a half commitment. Given the fact that the Padres are in no rush to deal him, he won’t come cheap.
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I’m sure the Yanks would LOVE to have Adams (who wouldn’t) but the price tag will be too high. Heath Bell is making 7.5 mil, so I’m sure the Padres would rather deal him and move Adams into the closer role. But the decline in movement may be the canary in the coalmine that inspires Hoyer to get out while the gettin’s good.
I don’t think the Yanks will target Bell, given the unhappy experience he had in NY with the Mets and his desire to be traded while he was here. I’m also not sure the two teams match up all that well. I’d give up Laird+Adams for him in a heartbeat, but that’s probably not enough. It will take something more enticing like Romine+, and I can’t give up a future MLB Catcher for a reliever, no matter how good Adams is. If the Yanks needed a Closer I’d do it, but they don’t. There will be cheaper options available (Kerry Wood, K-Rod) and if Soriano returns healthy and effective, I’m not even sure where Adams would pitch.
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Phil C Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 9:52 am
I doubt Kerry Wood could repeat last year’s results, but I think he’s an intriguing option for a short-term rental. Not being desperate for a reliever certainly should help to ensure the club doesn’t overpay to acquire one. Of course, if Soriano has a set-back that changes things quite a bit.
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Steve S. Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 9:56 am
If Wood costs this year’s version of Zach McAllister (Schaeffer Hall?) I do it yesterday. If he costs more, I pass. Like you, I don’t think he’ll repeat last year’s results, but he doesn’t have to to be a useful piece.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 10:02 am
Is wood still on the DL?
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Steve S. Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 10:13 am
No, he came off on Friday
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Phil C Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 10:17 am
I think it was a blister issue. Some concern, not huge.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 10:25 am
We traded for him last year directly off the DL. He didn’t even pitch an inning for the Indians before being shipped off to us. Probably a good thing too, because the Red Sox wanted him, but wanted to see him throw first.
I really don’t see the Yanks trading for a setup man type. The only way I can see it happening is if it comes crazy cheap and makes too much sense, which isn’t the case with Adams. This actually may be a pretty irrelevant trade deadline for us overall. We could walk out with a bench player, like a Hairston Jr, or maybe a lefty for the pen at the right price but nothing major.
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Steve S. Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 10:43 am
Choate and Hairston sounds about right to me. As Cashman has said, the guys he has coming off the DL are better than anything that’s available, so why spend any talent?
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 10:59 am
I’d be good with just Hairston and pass on Choate. He doesn’t mean an upgrade from Logan, and I don’t think he worth anything more than money.
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Little off topic. I’m not on twitter, but I saw a tweet last night that Banuelos was consistently around 94 MPH last night. So hopefully that answers that who “lost a tick question”. He ended up throwing 98 pitches, 68 of them for strikes. If he can just start stretching that out over more than 5 2/3 he may be in buisness.
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Steve S. Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 10:45 am
That’s not surprising. Many pitchers build velocity as the season progresses, so comparing 2nd half 2010 to 1st half 2011 is just silly. The thing I was most glad to hear about was when the announcer said his walks were going down. As we saw on last night’s game, defense in the minors is so bad that you just have to look at things the pitcher controls.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 10:51 am
I haven’t been able to watch the games, but I have been following the numbers of every start Manny and Dellin have made this year and that’s completely true. He has dropped his walk totals from high 5′s/low 6′ down into the high 4′s after last nights game. In fact after last nights game his K/9 is actually over 9 for the first time all year. He actually recently ended a skid of like 4 or 5 straight games with minimum 5 walks, so he does look to be harnessing his stuff more now. I just wish I could watch all the games to know if his walks come more from bad fastball command, or bad offspeed command.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 11:04 am
Banuelos stretch was of 4 or 5 games with 3 or more walks per game, not 5.
Man typos all over the place for me today.
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Phil C Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 10:47 am
It would be nice, but not a huge concern this year. More next year when he should be at AAA level. Hoping for 2013 in NY!
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 10:54 am
Its really less understandable at double A. He should be able to get through double A batters better than triple A ones, so he should be able to get more than 14 outs on 98 pitches in Trenton. If he was throwing 80 pitches and being taken out after 4 2/3 I’d agree, but either way he would be throwing 98 pitches without being able to complete 5. Though he would’ve gone 5 without the error.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 11:01 am
Banuelos threw 98 pitches in 4 2/3… the 5 was a typo on my end, sorry.
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What if the sox are on the verge of acquiring him? Does that change how much you would be willing to give up for him? I still don’t give up a Romine, but I am more willing to overpay a bit under that circumstance
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 10:56 am
I think you make a mistake when you start basing value on what another team is doing. You have to scout players and trust your evaluation. If you think player X is only worth so much, he shouldn’t become worth more because another team wants him. That’s when you tend to overpay and regret it.
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Steve S. Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 11:01 am
The Sox need bullpen help more than we do, but they don’t have the chips to get someone like Adams. And no, I don’t base my decisions on what the Sox will do. That doesn’t change anything as far as I’m concerned, and leads to making bad moves for the wrong reasons.
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Paul Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 12:22 pm
I agree in general, but when it comes to late season moves I think you have to consider paying extra value – both to help yourself and to hurt the team you are comPeting with for the division and will likely have to get through in the playoffs. Both should be factored in when calculating a Players trade value IMO
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 4th, 2011 at 9:40 pm
Only a players value should be factored into players trade value. Everything is irrelevent in the grand scheme.
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