This mailbag question comes courtesy of longtime reader Frank:
This morning I read that Epstein has made it known that the Sox will be “active” at the deadline. I think the Yanks will block any trade that involves a pitcher, especially a reliever, and I don’t see Epstein getting anything more than a 4 or 5 starter. What does worry me is SS. Although the Mets would obviously love to keep Reyes, it seems the logical move is the traditional trade deadline dump and get as many prospects as possible. I view the Sox as the best landing spot for him. He’d be a great leadoff man in that lineup and a huge upgrade over Scutaro. Just wondering your thoughts.
Although this is a Yankee blog, it is always interesting to get into the mind of the opposition. At present, there is a lot of conflicting information about what the Red Sox will be up to up to at the deadline. Peter Gammons recently reported that the Sox had no room to add payroll, while recent comments by Theo Epstein suggest that the Red Sox will be aggressive. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. The Red Sox will certainly be active in an attempt to improve their team in areas where there are weaknesses, but I don’t necessarily see them wanting to spend the money/trade chips to bring in a marquee piece. As Frank mentioned, their biggest needs are probably at shortstop and pitcher. I agree that they may look for a back-end starter with Buchholz and Lackey on the DL, and Tim Wakefield and Andrew Miller occupying rotation spots.
As for shortstops, the best one in the major leagues, in the form of Jose Reyes, could be on the trade market, and would fit nicely in the Boston lineup (or really any lineup). But would the Red Sox pull the trigger on him? I just don’t see it. There are a number of reasons:
The first reason is that I imagine the Mets would have to demand a high price in prospects to justify trading their star and franchise player, and the Boston farm system is significantly weakened following the Adrian Gonzalez trade. The Mets would likely need some advanced prospects, and Boston’s system doesn’t offer much beyond smooth-fielding shortstop Jose Iglesias (with a AAA OPS around .500) and hardthrowing righty Anthony Ranaudo (putting up solid numbers in high-A). The Mets will almost certainly receive a higher offer for Reyes if the Red Sox are unwilling to give up Ranaudo or Iglesias (though I’m not sure how much value he has with his offensive struggles), and Boston might very well be outbid even if they do offer one of those guys.
The Gonzalez trade probably has implications for Boston’s finances as well. They traditionally like to stay just below the luxury tax threshold, and Gonzalez’s new contract is going to put them right around the limit. I don’t see Boston being able to blow Reyes away with the Carl Crawford money he likely wants to sign an extension, and I also don’t see them giving up good prospects for a rental if Reyes won’t sign an extension. I could see Reyes being interested in playing for a contender like Boston, but given the likely price of acquiring Reyes, I don’t see Boston biting.
It will be very interesting to see where Reyes ends up, but ultimately, I’m not sure he gets dealt. I don’t know that the Mets will get a good enough deal to warrant trading their superstar and franchise icon, and with potential new ownership coming in, I could see them making a big run to resign Reyes in the offseason.
To get back to the Yankees briefly, it will be very interesting to see how they approach the trade deadline. The surprising acceptability of Freddy Garcia and Ivan Nova, the awesomeness of Bartolo Colon, and hopefully, a rejuvenated Phil Hughes could very well keep the Yankees from needing to add a starting pitcher at the deadline. I’m sure they will keep their ears open if a frontline starter is made available (or even a #2-3 type), but there’s likely not going to be a good value out there. There will likely be some minor deals for bullpen help (a lefty if Boone Logan continues to struggle) and bench players, but as Brian Cashman has said, the Yankees’ trade deadline acquisitions will be the hopefully healthy returns of Hughes, Colon, and Soriano.
Thanks for the question Frank. If anyone else has questions that they would like to ask for a future mailbag, feel free to email us using the “contact us” button above (or email us at TheYankeeAnalysts at gmail dot com).
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Nunez just got his sixth consecutive hit. He must stay in the lineup if/when Jeter comes back Monday. Nunez can be the DH.
Let’s have fun:
Nova, Hughes, Betances, Banuelos, and Noesi to Detroit for Justin Verlander. Do the Tigers make that trade?
The Yankees rotation for the rest of 2011 would be Sabathia/Verlander/Burnett/Colon/Garcia.
Their ALDS rotation could be Sabathia/Burnett/Verlander/Colon with Garcia as insurance.
They cross the bridge called 2012 when they get to it. They could re-sign Colon and fill out the #5 job with a re-signed Garcia, some other veteran, or a kid on the farm.
The Yankees would have two of the three AL aces in Sabathia and Verlander (the only other ace being Felix Hernandez.)
The Tigers rest of the 2011 rotation would be Scherzer/Porcello/Penny/Hughes/Nova.
I don’t think the Tigers would make that trade.
First off Detroit would never ever ever make that trade.
Second off for 2012 you realize that Sabathia is going to opt out right and pretty much cripple any big signing.
Third off to say that Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Jared Weaver, James Shields, Dan Haren, Ricky Romero and David Price are not aces just makes you sound like even more of a moron than you actually are.
Ignore him.
I don’t see how Sabathia opting out would cripple a big signing really. He would be making right around the same amount of money per year, a little more in the long run perhaps, but it would mostly be just adding 2 or 3 years. So in that regard if they were planning on signing someone anyway they still could. Also there are no real big names on the free agency market, besides CJ Wilson, and I don’t think Wilson will get CC or Lee money. He’ll bank, but I think he falls just short of that kind of contract.
While Beckett’s pitching like this he’s for sure an ace, but I’m not sure if he can keep it up next year. Lester is for sure an ace, and one of the best 3 or 4 lefties in baseball. Ditto for Price. Romero is getting there, and this is probably the breakout year for an ace career. Jared Weaver is in that conversation. But Haren and Shields aren’t aces by my defenition. I know the term is subjective, but I don’t see either as the put you on their back work horses of Halladay, Sabathia, Etc… Shields is a very good pitcher, and one any rotation would welcome with open arms, same for Haren. But they aren’t elite, top of a generation pitchers in my opinion.
Don’t get me wrong Haren and Shields are having amazing seasons, but I think it takes several years of 200+ innings at the top of the league in performance to be an “ace”. It also helps if you have great postseasons like Beckett, or CC in 2009.
Speaking of the Tigers why isn’t anyone saying that team is a possible destination for Jose Reyes? They could use the production from Reyes at that position, are in contention for first place in the AL Central, and have the prospects to make a trade led by Jacob Turner. Don’t sleep on this time making a splash at the deadline, and Reyes is a player that could have an immediate impact for the team, and can help them reach the postseason and make some noise while in October.
Could the Tigers give Reyes a bigger contract than Crawford’s Reyes’ new agent Scott Boras will want? No way Reyes is making the same as or less than Crawford. I see Boras asking for minimum 8 years and $160M, or basically Manny Ramirez’s biggest contract.
If they can’t I doubt they’ll trade their top prospects for a rental player.
Btw all you out there my Verlander trade idea is for fun, so lighten up if you think I’m serious. I’d be shocked if the Tigers traded Verlander this year or next. Like Felix Hernandez, the dude’s going nowhere for awhile.
I read yesterday that Manny Banuelos stuff has “lost a tick” this season, and that he has “diminished” since Spring Training. Anyone else hear about this? If his stuff falls back down to what it was, his ceiling lowers dramatically.
I have not heard that.
I read it at Baseball America.
“Joseph (Pittsburgh, PA): No Manuel Banuelos? Heard his stuff wasn’t great, but the results are still there and he still the same guy.
J.J. Cooper: It was a very solid start so he wasn’t far off the list, but it was hard to make it with only five innings pitched. And yes, the stuff for Banuelos has diminished a tick.”
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2011/2612032.html
Not heard that, but with a K per inning he must still have the ability to miss bats. He has experienced control problems, but he’s still young, so that’s not a big concern yet. I am interested in what others have heard. Anyone seen him pitch this year?
With his changeup he should be able to miss bats in double A, the problem comes along as he goes above that level. If he is back into the low 90′s and below, his major league ceiling isn’t that of a top of the rotation starter.
If Boston gets anybody from the Mets, its more likely to be Carlos Beltran.
[...] they’re talking, of course, about the …Red Sox? Well, yes. The topic du jour is whether or not the Red Sox can and should trade for Jose Reyes. It’s an interesting idea. The Sox could, in theory, add Reyes defensively as there are no [...]