Playing the ‘What if’ game with Cliff Lee

Brian Cashman was recently interviewed by Larry Stone of the Seattle Times about what went down in the ill-fated Cliff Lee negotiations. Given how things have played out since, we now have some context to put those trade talks into. But as Brian lays out, we are are still left with many unanswered questions. He begins:

“It is what it is,” Cashman said Tuesday. “You don’t have a deal until you officially have a deal. Our guy, Adams, didn’t pass the medicals. They went back to the original stuff I had been saying no to all along.”

Brian is referring to Yankee AA 2B prospect David Adams, who suffered what was at the time described as a “high ankle sprain” on May 23 sliding into second base in a game at Portland’s Hadlock Field. He was on the DL at the time of the Cliff Lee trade talks, which broke down After attempting to rehab the injury over the next few months, on July 29th VP of player development Mark Newman reported that the ankle was broken, not sprained. Adams had suffered a setback in his rehab and his season was likely over.

So how close did Cliff Lee come to becoming a Yankee?

“Oh, I had him,” Cashman replied. “The medicals didn’t work out, so they (the Mariners) jumped off, and Texas jumped in.”

The proposed deal would have been Jesus Montero, David Adams, and a 3rd prospect that was never confirmed, but was likely a 2nd tier pitching prospect. According to Joel Sherman, below the level of someone like David Phelps or Hector Noesi. Cashman was asked if he has any regrets, and said he didn’t:

(sarcasm alert)

“Especially since he went to Philadelphia,” he said. “Now I’m like, I got one of the premier hitting talents here, and I didn’t have a two-month rental.”

The question immediately follows would the Yanks have made the World Series with Cliff Lee in the fold? Its difficult to say, but lets walk through it. We’ll assume Cliff Lee is the game 2 starter, with Pettitte and Hughes going in 3 and 4. For Texas, I’ll go with a 3 man rotation of CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter and just shift their performances into the adjoining game where possible. It’s not very scientific, but will give us a rough idea whether or not things would have played out differently.

Game 1-The starter would have been Sabathia whether they acquired Lee or not. Yanks won 6-5 on some late inning heroics despite a poor showing  (4IP 5 ER) by CC.

Game 2-Lee would have pitched Game 2 since the Yanks had their pitching lined up for the ALCS. The Yanks lost game two of the ALCS 7-2 on a poor outing from Phil Hughes. Given that the Yanks scored just 2 runs off Colby Lewis that game, it tough to say who would have won or lost.

Game 3-Pitching for the Rangers, Lee beat the Yanks in game three of the ALCS 8-0 facing Andy Pettitte in what turned out to be the final game of his career. Andy gave up just 2 runs in the 1st inning, though the Yankee bullpen exploded late and the score wound up 8-0. The likely opponent would have been Tommy Hunter, who gave up 3 ER in just 3.1 IP in game 4 and was relieved by Derek Holland who gave up just 1 hit in 3 scoreless innings. Andy pitched 7 innings, so the Yanks would have needed just 2 outs in the 8th to get to Mo. Another game that’s difficult to estimate who would have won or lost. The Yankee bullpen may have been utilized differently, but given their complete lack of effectiveness it may not have made much difference. Further as you’ll see in Games 6 and 7, it’s very possible Holland doesn’t pitch out of the bullpen and gets a start somewhere in the series, possibly as soon as game 4.

Game 4-With Lee was in the fold, Burnett certainly would have been skipped after the awful season he had. AJ was bombed for 5 ER in 6 IP in a 10-3 loss in Game 4. Though Phil Hughes would have been the likely Game 4 starter, and Phil was bad for most of the 2nd half. That’s a wash.  Most likely opponent would have been CJ Wilson on 3 days rest, who pitched well in Game 1 (7 IP 3 ER) though poorly in game 5 (5 IP 6 ER). A slugfest that’s tough to figure who would have won or lost.

Game 5-No change here on the Yankee side. CC would have pitched, and he gave up just 2 ER in 6 IP, though he struggled the entire game giving up 11 hits. Colby Lewis would have been his likely opponent, who pitched a gem (8 IP 1 ER) in Game 6.

Game 6-Cliff Lee vs Tommy Hunter is the estimated match up, though its possible Ron Washington would have gone with Derek Holland after their respective first outings.

Game 7-If game 7 was needed, Andy Pettitte would have pitched, and his likely opponent would have been whoever was bumped in Game 6. CJ Wilson would have been on 2 days rest, so he’s out.

Clearly, the Yanks would have had a better chance to win the series, but its far from guaranteed they would have advanced. It certainly would have been a closer series, and if it went 7 games I have to think they would have advanced given the game 6 and 7 match ups. But its safe to say the entire Texas rotation would have been different, and the game by game match ups would have played out very differently.

And would Cliff Lee have re-signed with the Yanks? Given how the Rangers seemed to have no edge in the free agent negotiations, its difficult to argue the Yanks would have been in a different position. Lee seemed to have his heart set on returning to the Phillies, so much so that he signed a below market deal to return there, leaving as much as 40 mil on the table. But would Cliff have loved playing here so much he would have signed?

“Maybe,” replied Cashman. “Or maybe he would have hated it. Who knows? It goes both ways. He went there (Texas) to help them win a World Series, but he lost two games in the World Series to the Giants. You just don’t know how this stuff plays out.”

Amen.