This is a guest post from David P. over at Yankees Source, who can be reached at @yankeesource on Twitter. He is a scout for an international scouting agency that works with a few MLB clubs, including the Yankees. He spends a few months out of the year in Japan and has been following Yu Darvish since he was 16. I asked him for some thoughts on Darvish and how he compares to previous Japanese prospects who have made the leap to MLB, and he kindly obliged with a very informative post.
At this point we are all familiar with the failures of major Japanese pitchers who make the transition to the MLB. That’s one of the biggest fears for baseball fans this year, the thought of signing Japanese phenom Yu Darvish to a multi-million-dollar deal only to have it end up as a failure. There were big signings from Japan that turned into multi-million-dollar busts that remain etched in our minds. is probably the first big name bust if you recall the commercials about his 99MPH fastball and all the other hype before he ever threw a Major League pitch. Then there were others like , the one with the mythical gyroball, and , who were two of the more recent failures that cost millions to both the Red Sox and the Yankees. But is it fair to label each Japanese pitcher an automatic bust?
I’ve been around the NPB for years and the first thing I could tell you is that it isn’t a league that is equal to the MLB in terms of talent. The rosters are pretty thin for the most part and you know that the talent level is weak when the Central League home run leader is former Seattle Mariner with 31 home runs. However, wouldn’t it be much better to evaluate players if you actually viewed the NPB as an AAA+ league? The level of talent in the NPB is closer to AAA than MLB and the few exceptions that play in the NPB who do dominate can then be looked at as legit candidates to be on a Major League roster.
dominated the NPB before coming to the Yankees. He launched 50 home runs in his last year with the Yomiuri Giants while hitting .334 and driving in 107 RBIs. In his first season with the Yankees, Matsui hit just 16 home runs but had 106 RBIs and hit .287. He was a very steady performer with the Yankees for seven years and while he wasn’t the same power hitter that he was in Japan, he still hit 20 or more home runs in four of his seven seasons with the Yankees. Ichiro was another NPB stud who hit .387 with the Orix Blue Wave in his last year in Japan. He wasn’t a power hitter in Japan but again it was pretty clear that he didn’t belong in that league. Ichiro hit .350 in his first season with the Mariners and won the Rookie of the Year award and the MVP award in the same year.
Like any prospect there is also a chance that they just might not pan out. One such example is former New York Met infielder . In 2002 with the Seibu Lions, Matsui hit .332 with 36 home runs and 87 RBIs. The Mets signed him at age 27 and in 2004 he hit a paltry .272 with 7 home runs and 44 RBIs, and in 2005, just .255 with 3 homers in 267 ABs. He was nowhere near his Japanese numbers and the Mets traded him to the Colorado Rockies after two seasons with the team.
Moving on to pitching and looking past the busts in Hideki Irabu and Kei Igawa, other Japanese pitchers have had decent success in the majors. , , , , , and have had good to great success in the MLB. In the past there were many Japanese pitchers who couldn’t adjust, but the newer crop of Japanese pitchers have looked much better. I know we all look at Daisuke Matsuzaka as a bust, mainly because it’s impossible to live up to the 100-million-dollar-plus price tag around his neck, but he also had success early in his Red Sox career. In his last season with the Seibu Lions, Dice-K went 17-5 with a 2.13 ERA. As much as he dominated the NPB, there were definite questions about his durability before coming over. His durability eventually turned his Red Sox career into a failure because his health kept him off the mound after a terrific 2008 season, going 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA with the Red Sox.
Is it fair to compare Yu Darvish to Dice-K? Not at all. Yu Darvish is just 24 years old and has thrown at least 200 innings in four of his last five seasons. Comparatively, Dice-K only had two seasons in Japan where he threw 200 or more innings, once in 2000 and then five years later in 2005 (age 25). Darvish’s consistency in innings also gives you some hope that he is durable enough to adjust to MLB. Dice-K never had a sub-2.00 ERA in the NPB while Darvish has posted five consecutive years of ERAs below 2.00 at a younger age as well. Of course there will be those who say that all these innings is a reason to be wary of his arm and how it will hold up but why aren’t we equally worried about who at 25 has thrown four consecutive seasons of 200 or more innings?
All of the statistical data in the world still cannot project how a pitcher may pitch in the majors. We know that Darvish isn’t going to pitch to sub-2 ERAs in the AL East where pitchers like , , and other aces struggle to keep their ERAs under 3. Expecting something much less than his NPB statistics will at least give you some understanding on how he will translate. Furthermore, there are numerous external factors that can affect Japanese pitchers’ performances once they arrive. Some of these pitchers simply cannot adjust to the secluded lifestyle that they carry once they arrive here. Many of them can’t adjust to the tougher hitters, and the changes in travel, diet, communication, etc., can all turn a stud into a dud. It’s not easy, and as someone who travels a lot I can tell you that it’s ridiculously difficult to adjust.
Darvish could be susceptible to all these things; there were rumors of him being spotted at the red light district in Japan and his issues with his wife have also been well-scrutinized by the Japanese press too, but from what I’ve seen he looks like a very mature individual who is capable of handling New York City. Strictly on an analysis of talent level, Darvish looks every bit as legit as a or a .
It’s also important to note that Darvish isn’t the same pitcher he was in 2008 — back then his fastball was a fringe Major League pitch and his mechanics were raw. He still had the ability to dominate the NPB scene but it was pretty clear that he needed something more if he was to attempt to bring that level of dominance to the Major League Baseball arena. Darvish bulked up, and the added weight improved his fastball from 92-94 to 94-97mph, which is where he sits in 2011. His added bulk this year also suggests that he is preparing for a move to the Majors and that’s why most of us are convinced that Nippon Ham will post him this season. The bulkiness is another reason why I project his durability to be better than others would suggest. If he was a tall, lanky pitcher who threw 94-97mph there would be a lot more uncertainty in his arm holding up than now.
Furthermore, Darvish has a keen knowledge of his mechanics that other 20-25-year-olds would have a tough time understanding. I remember one scout saying “He’s his own pitching coach” during a bullpen in spring training and I can vouch for that. I recall a game two years ago where he lost his arm slot in the first inning and came off the mound visibly frustrated, holding his arm up to suggest that he lost his arm slot. He would come out and shut the opposing team down for the rest of the game and it was clear he made the necessary adjustment. His balance to home plate is impeccable and he repeats his motion extremely well because he knows his entire pitching motion like the back of his hand. Dice-K doesn’t repeat his motion and that’s why you never see him on the mound anymore.
With Darvish you are getting a control/power pitcher who can take you deep into games and save your bullpen. He also brings the fire and desire to win and dominate every game he pitches. He’s already accustomed to celebrity status in Japan and it won’t be any different if he joined the New York Yankees. Whether or not his stuff will translate remains to be seen but he is much better than any talent that has ever come from Japan because of his age and the number of above average pitches he can throw. At age 24, you have to remember to look at Darvish as a very expensive prospect rather than a guy who is guaranteed to be a lockdown ace. That’s where two separate million-dollar questions pop up: do you take a risk on signing a 24-year-old AAA+ level prospect who looks legit? And is it worth spending millions knowing you will have to have a consistently great starter from year one to the last year of his contract to justify the outlay, something that rarely comes to fruition? These are only questions that the guys with the fat wallets, namely Hal and Hank Steinbrenner, can answer.
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I’ll answer for the bros Stein…. YES!
Pretty much in line with what I have been saying. He is beyond what Dice K or any other Japanese pitcher ever has been and cannot be graded the way they were. If he was doing this in our AAA system he would be considered the best pitching prospect in baseball based on results and stuff. He has been doing it consistently for a couple years now. He wont cost a draft pick, only money. Exact kind of risk a high revenue team like the Yankees should jump all over. Its like when a high talent young Mexican pitcher (Roberto Osuna another signing I want to see this offseason) comes along. Why wouldn’t you sign a guy with this much upside?
Outcome 1 – He is what his numbers show. Okay now we have an Ace pitcher who is turning 25 for another 6 years. Terrific.
Outcome 2 – He is a middle of the order pitcher. Well that wouldn’t constitute a bust, and would still be useful.
Outcome 3 – He is a total bust. Well ok, then you bury him in the minors the way you did with Igawa. No sacrificing of a draft pick, no sacrifice of a roster spot.
Agree with your response, Michael P. This seems to confirm what we’ve read about Yu and I hope the Yankees take the gamble. They can afford to take the risk, even if he fails, but it seems he’s about as safe a bet as any prospect can be. The Yankees don’t have the early draft picks to get guys like Strasburg and Moore, so the International Market may be the best way for them to get these high-ceiling guys. Go ahead, Bros. Steinbrenner, take the plunge!
I may be wrong but didn’t Dice K’s contract preclude him from being “sent to the minors” except for rehab assignment. I have to assume that whoever Darvish hires as his agent is going to require the same type of clause.
If that is the case and should he turn out to be a “bust” whatever team signs him he’s on their roster for the “duration”. A roster spot that could be valuable if needed for another player. Just playing “devils advocate”.
Roberto Osuna was signed by the Blue Jays.
BTW, I’m for the Yankees pursuing Darvish if combined the cost (posting fee and contract) is for 5 or 6 years max and $60 to $72M max. More then that and in my opinion the risk out weights the possible reward.
Guess. 60 mil posting. 55 for 5 contract
Why are you assuming Yu’s posting fee will be higher than Dice-K’s was? I think it will be smaller because The Sox and Yankees won’t be going crazy trying to make sure they 1up the other. No other team is going to go as high as 50 million on the posting fee alone either. This total amount should be less than Dice-K’s total.
This passes as a “informed” take? Please.
This guy studies and analyzes baseball for a living and still relies on good ol’ batting average, home runs and RBI to assess hitters? He lost me there.
And Daisuke Matsuzaka had a “terrific” 2008? Yes, he had a 2.90 ERA, but his FIP was 4.03 and xFIP was 4.64. He got lucky with men on base, and on FB/HR ratio. He was not terrific, he was mediocre, and lucky.
Finally, I find this completely implausible: “Strictly on an analysis of talent level, Darvish looks every bit as legit as a Stephen Strasburg or a Matt Moore.”
If he’s every bit as legit as Stephen Strasburg, then he is without a question worth throwing gobs and gobs of money at, especially since Darvish has a clean record as far as health.
I would not be surprised if Darvish ends up being a good major league pitcher, but this “informed take” leaves a lot to be desired.
As for the Strasburg comp, I’ve heard it before, and someone is going to drop 100 million on Darvish, so I’m not sure what you are getting at.
Regarding the informed take, David has seen Darvish many times and gave what I thought was a pretty comprehensive look into his past and his current makeup. That’s why I called it informed. If you want to quibble with that over xFIP, that’s your call, I guess.
Funny, I’ve never once heard a MLB pitching coach refer to xFIP yet don’t doubt for one second they have an “informed” take on their players. Some of the smartest baseball people I know know nothing about advanced metrics, yet consistently wind up in the same place as if they did the analytics. Point being, there are different paths to the same truths. Just because someone doesn’t choose yours doesn’t mean their informed opinion isn’t worthwhile. Frankly, if there was only one path and the results certain then the game would be far less interesting than it is.
If a scout or coach had extensively watched Darvish, to the extent that a pitching coach observes his own pitchers, then fine. That would be an informed, if incomplete take. If that same pitching coach said Pitcher X is pitching well, as evidenced by a strong ERA, even if the pitcher had much higher FIP/xFIP ERAs, then I would say, sorry, he is not all that informed.
I am taking the author at his word here. And it appears he is using stats like RBI, ERA and batting average to make his case for why Darvish has a chance to be successful in the majors.
Is FIP a completely reliable statistic to prove a pitcher’s overall ability? I know FIP has its own flaws and even if I use it I don’t consider it that much because any statistic that can be disputed should not hold a great deal of value as you suggest.
Now if you can prove that FIP is a flawless statistic to prove a pitcher’s actual performance then by all means do so.
Well I used both FIP and xFIP, so I was certainly not relying on one measure.
And no, neither FIP or xFIP are perfect. Who cares? Don’t make the perfect the enemy of the good. The two together give a much more accurate measure of how well a pitcher really performed.
It doesn’t matter that FIP and xFIP aren’t perfect. The point is that they’re much better than ERA, and are also very easy to find.
And what, since wOBA, OPS and wRC+ aren’t perfect either, we might as well use batting average and RBI?
professional scout’s opinions>>>>>>>>>>>>>>than some bitchy know it alls opinion
seriously though get off your high horse, not everyone uses saber stats, most people don’t understand saber stats. That’s besides the point this article is trying to make. The author is trying to point out that NPB players are like prospects, some will be able to translate there skills to the more advanced MLB, others can’t. Dice K had success for whether you think it was luck or not doesn’t matter much compared to the fact that it was tangible success (besides that dreadful walk rate Dice-K was very good by most other measures. Darvish is young enough that if he was in a mlb system, he would be a top prospect ready to make the big league jump. Like the author said, NPB is basically AAAA, Darvish has been putting up great numbers there since he was 18, that is why the author says that he is worth trying to get.
Of course not every one understands and uses sabre stats. These people are uninformed. If they took the time to understand them, they’d probably use them, since they are vastly superior to the old school stats.
Plus, this analysis relies more heavily on stats than it does on scouting. There is only one paragraph that discusses Darvish’s stuff and mechanics. I’d love to read a scout’s take on Darvish. Instead we get a half-baked “analysis” that looks at a handful of Japanese players, which compares their old school stats in Japan to old school stats in MLB.
JP….FIP and xFIP should be scrutinized (taken with a grain of salt) when there is a wide spread in talent level. Simply tossing that info about doesn’t make someone ‘informed’. I don’t know much about the NPB, but from the description in the article, I wouldn’t just assume the BABIP is ~.290 and the weightings on K’s, BB’s and HR’s are in line with the FIP/xFIP model that is applied to MLB.
That said, I think it would be more useful to include K and BB rates, GB rates (and how that compares to others in that league) and a bit more info on his secondary stuff though if this is an ‘informed take’. Simple fastball velocity and ERA is fairly limited.
That may be true, but this article does a poor job of making its point. Instead of emphasizing that Darvish’s mechanics, his stuff, make him different from other Japanese pitchers, he starts out by trying to make Japanese MLB failures–middle relievers, for Pete’s sake–look like successes, and tries to emphasize how well Japanese players have done by using stats few people here rely on. Eventually he gets down to it, but it might have been a lot more effective if he didn’t bother trying to squirm around the performance of Japanese players in general.
@JP I agree with your FIP/xFIP and the luck factor but was it not a successful season? Yes it was. That’s all I was intending as I really did not want to get into the advanced stats for this piece which Larry Koestler already has an article on. And there are others like Hideo Nomo who has dominated at times in the major leagues.
And as for throwing money at Darvish just because he is as talented as Strasburg, which a large portion of the scouting community agree to, doesn’t mean any team should just throw money at him. He definitely has the talent.
I suppose Matsuzaka’s 2008 season was successful in terms of results, even if it was as much luck as skill. But who cares? His 2008 season is being held out as evidence to help predict what will happen with a loosely analogous pitcher in the future.
Unless there’s a reason to expect that Darvish will get similarly lucky, then using Matsuzaka’s 2008 season is pointless.
Darvish ready for major league challenge
email this print this
TOKYO, Oct. 18 (23:32) Kyodo
The Yu Darvish sweepstakes are set to begin.
Nippon Ham Fighters ace Darvish, long said to be Japanese
baseball’s next biggest export to the majors, is ready to make a move
stateside through the posting system this offseason, Kyodo News
learned through several sources on Tuesday.
The 25-year-old Darvish, the highest paid player in Japanese
baseball at an estimated 500 million yen per season, is expected to
officially ask the Fighters to put him up for bidding after the
postseason.
Nippon Ham finished second in the Pacific League during the
regular season and will meet the Seibu Lions in the first stage of
the Climax Series starting Oct. 29 — when Darvish will take the hill
at Sapporo Dome.
The Fighters are likely to grant Darvish his request.
”If he wants to play at a higher level, then that’s his wish,”
Nippon Ham owner Hiroji Okoso said.
”It’s really up to him,” a source at the team said. ”That was
the conclusion they reached after a series of talks.”
The earliest that Darvish, who has spent all seven seasons of
his career with the Fighters, can qualify for overseas free agency is
2014.
This season, the 1.96-meter right-hander is 18-6 in 28 starts
with a miniscule 1.44 ERA — the fifth straight year in which he has
had a sub-2.00 ERA.
A winner of the 2009 World Baseball Classic, Darvish also has
276 strikeouts in 232 innings, both tops in the PL. He has been
linked with several major league teams in the past, among them the
New York Yankees.
Last offseason, the Rakuten Eagles put up Hisashi Iwakuma for
bidding, which was won by the Oakland Athletics. Iwakuma and Oakland,
however, failed to strike a deal, sending the right-hander back to
Rakuten for this season.
Yo dude HE MAKES 500 MILLION? Even the Yankees can’t afford that! That’s like DOUBLE their payroll, man!
So that should mean he is looking for at least 6.5 million from any team looking to sign him. Which means a contract probably starting around 6 years/42 million.
“The 25-year-old Darvish, the highest paid player in Japanese
baseball at an estimated 500 million yen per season”
Yo dude the operative word is YEN
Dollar>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Yen
the yen is much stronger than the dollar right now. his salary now in dollars is around 7 million a year.
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/08/27/yu.darvish/index.html
link to Yu Darvish from CNN from a few years ago.
This kid is no joke, he’s no AJ in terms of not being
satisfied till he reaches his goal of 0.00 ERA.
I hope the Yanks get this guy, it will bring the Yanks
center stage more than it is already.
Jeez Mo why would ever give us an informed opinion that doesn’t use xFIP? What a terrible person and writer you are! Trying to help us understand a pitcher none of us have ever seen pitch, you clearly just don’t know what you are doing!
On a serious take I found the piece very informative. Getting anyone first hand take on the guy is more than I can offer on YU, and it’s something not many who we can talk to have. I was interested in signing him before reading this, and this backups any thoughts I had about the guy.
@Steve S. he makes 500 million Yen. Not american dollars. Big difference
I think someone missed the joke…
Or I missed you joking in response.
well, when you gotta yen,
you just gotta scratch it, don’t you?
man, you figure the piggy bank is endless? $70 mil here, $82.5 there, we gotta spread it far and wide and thin to be World Champions!
I hope the Yankees are not afraid to go out and get this kid.. I had watch some of his videos posted and I just feel inlove with the guy is not joke this kid have pure talent he’s amazing! He’s not Dice K or Igawua .. he is Yu Darvish for God sake!!… I ll be surprise if the Yankees don’t go aggressive on this kid .. just lookin at his videos I can tell this boy is something special … I rather have him on top of CJ Wilson .. CJ will demand no less than 5 years and he is soon to be 31 , his body could star to breakdown at any point that’s a big concern to me don’t make the same mistake like AJ Burnett .
If I am Cashman I will throw the dice on this kid which I think he will be fine on his transition to the big leagues … will it cost 100 M or 120 M ??? I don’t care JUST GET HIM … I can not imagine see him wearing another uniform but the Yankees it will be a heart breaking for me.
If I am the Yankees I have to bid higher than Dice-K was won for so I would venture to guess 60ish million to start and he probably gets 10 – 15/yr backloaded contract for 6 years (~75 million).
why do you “have to big higher than Dice-K was won for”? I don’t get this logic… We now know that Boston overbid by some 15 million with that winning bid, why then would you up it by another 10 million? It seems if anything the winning bid this time will be closer to 45 million than 50+.
If I’m the Yankees I don’t place a bid higher than 45 million, and if I won I wouldn’t sign him to a contract higher than the 6 year 51 million dollar deal Dice-K signed. If someone else outbids me, or if he wants to go back to Japan after we win because of it so be it.
The starting pitcher market is barren and rather than lose him to Boston, Washington or Texas, the ceiling on Darvish is higher than anyone to come out of Japan or higher than anyone in the system (e.g. Banuelos). Considering Darvish throws harder and is already somewhat established (mechanically), I think you have to bid high but I am not a GM so take what I say with a grain of salt.
I honestly can’t see Boston bidding another 50 million on a Japanese pitcher after Daisuke. I think they will bid, but I think that whole experience held back expectations going forward. I just have a really hard time seeing anyone going over the winning bid for Matsuzaka.
Are the Rangers really going to sign CJ Wilson to a 5 year 85 million dollar plus contract, and then bid 50+ million Yu? Washington might be bidding big, and after the whole Jayson Werth thing you can’t predict what they might do so I’ll give you that one. But I’m just not comfortable with that kind of bid.
I would want to hold the grand total below 100 million, and if a 45 million dollar bid isn’t getting it done I think we should pass.
I’m obviously not a GM either, it’s just my personal feel on the subject.
45 million is the posting fee I would throw out there. After that you have exclusive negotiating rights and if you don’t reach a settlement, he is returned to his team and your 45 million to the bidding team. 50 million then a 6 year 55 million dollar contract should get the deal done. But the Rangers and Blue Jays are supposedly heavily in on Darvish. I don’t think they can play with the Yankees on this field. This is one signing that is truly reliant on money, and not a bidding war the Yankees should lose. I don’t expect the Red Sox to be major players in this, how much money do they want tied up in the rotation and on an unsure product? Red Sox should be in on CJ is anyone this offseason.
The hard part is the fact that it’s a blind bid. We seem to be around the same place on what our bids would be. But being blind you don’t know if you won, let alone how much you over/underbid until it’s all said and done. Tricky situation for any owner and GM to be in.
I can see Torono bidding huge but what does “huge” really mean when it comes down to it. Toronto will probably be a lot more competative in 2012 with the additons that Anthopolis has made and his huge cache of talent. I would hate to see Darvish go to a division rival considering how competative the AL East already is, Toronto being a player would be ridiculous. Bidding 60 million compared to 45 when it comes down to it is really chump change considering it does not count against the luxury tax and as was stated earlier, if you can’t get the contract in the area you want, Darvish goes back to Japan and no one gets him. I’d like that scenario better than losing out to Washington or Toronto. Say CJ goes somewhere besides Texas, they will be bidding high for him since their “ace” will have fled (maybe to the NL?, maybe Washington).
In addition, I don’t know how the timelines will shake out but if they can post the highest bid for Darvish, it might put more pressure on CC to stay since the “need” is not as dire as it would before. If not that, negotiations I would think would give the Yankees some more leverage. Again, assuming CC opts out immediately after the WS, it might not matter.
Sabathia has to opt out within 10 days of the end of the WS. I don’t see anyway that the Darvish deals raps up by then, so I don’t see how it could give us any leverage with him.
I think bidding 45 million sets the precedent that you aren’t going over 45-50 million on the contract either. Once you bid 60 million, you then open yourself up to having paid 120+ million for essentially a prospect.
I would like to keep the grand total under 100 million total, otherwise it starts to get a little to rich for me.
From all that we have read and see about the Japanese league (as well as this article), I think there is a bit more reliability than your average AAA phenom. The big signs for me that make it worth it is his low walk total, his build, his ability to hit 97 on the gun and reliably hit 94, the fact that he’s 25 and that he’s hit 200 innings for a good stretch of time. No guarantees but I think this is worth going high on the bid or at least as high as Dice-K.
He’s also thrown more innings than any 25 year would have had they been a minor league phenom. 1000 innings or so before his 25th birthday, that is an incredible amount of stress on a young arm. He has also had no pitch count limit in Japan and has regularly thrown 120+ pitchers per start, reaching 140+ on several occasions over the last few years.
On top of this the biggest concern for me is the fact that he would going into a completely new rotation system. One that would go from having him pitch once every 7th day, to once every 5th day. Something I think that is overlooked by many when evaluating Japanese starters. Pitchers are creatures of habit, and for the span of his pitching life this is all he has known. His body has also gotten use to this kind of recovery time between starts. Throwing him into a every 5 day rotation could have all sorts of unknown side effects. I still believe this is one of the reasons Diasuke had such velocity inconsistency.
It’s an adjustment to go from NPB to MLB no doubt but I think it’s a better sign that he can get to that 200 inning plataeu reliably. Dice-K (as the article stated) only hit the 200 innings 2 times in his NPB career and was not as solid from a physical standpoint. We can debate back and forth all we want, nothing is a sure thing but I think he is worth it based on all the things we know and his statistics thus far in NPB
So I thought CC had 10 days to decide, it turns out he has to opt out within 3 days of the end of the World Series. Doesn’t change things much, but just clearing that up.
Hey any thought that the Yankees could surprise all of us and sign both pitchers? there’s any possibility ??
There is a chance that could happen sure. But I think the only way that happens is if Sabathia opts out and leaves. otherwise you are talking about 300+ million for 3 guys, all starting pitchers.
Money will be saved for Hamels after the 2012 season. Sabathia/Darvish (probable), Wilson/Darvish, but not all three.
I was just reading on another site that Darvish will officially ask to be posted after the post season.
Let the games begin.
I dunno I think I have said just about everything I could possibly say in favor of this guy. Even if he is a bust which is something every single free agent signing is a risk of becoming it doesn’t hurt as bad as a poor FA signing. I mean if they can work in minor league options in for Kei Igawa why not this one?
Definitely intrigued, though as always it’s all about the price.
My submission for his nickname in MLB: Hurling Darvish.
only thing im not looking forward to is everytime he takes the mound hearing that soulja boi song “supaman.” Yuuuuuu crank that soulja boi…god its going to be bad
Why don’t you go and write your own acceptable article, jp, you humongous douche. The author has seen Darvish countless times but just bc he chose to not metric it up for you, you take issue? Also he said that had already been previously done by another author. What a picky asshat
The stage is set, the lights only gets brighter on the day Yu Darvish steps on the mound as a #2 for the Yankees after CC. Flash bulbs are flashing, cameras clicking, and he stares in to home plate and throws a strike to Martin. It’s going to be huge, the stadium will be packed, the world will be watching, Darvish mania will get to a feverish pitch in the Bronx, and the Boogie down will be buzzzing, the Yankees will bring that excitement back and the world will be eagerly awaiting Yu’s next pitch……. The Yanks need Yu….
I love when a kid reads some stuff on the internet (somebody else invented) and feels empowered enough to publicly bash a professional scout over semantics. Very minor point in the article and the fact that he had much lower era at a younger age is the most important sample of those statistics.
Fact is…when we watch baseball the stats we see on the screen is w-l era…for a pitcher… so it is most common way to explain what he is seeing for every fan.
If I were Cashman…I would go 52M posting fee…may the best team win.
sabermetrics are becoming more popular and are a better way to analyze performance. I would not use w-l for any analysis, era is a better snapshot but not good.
where i think the article missed was providing an actual scouting report of Darvish. There is the quick reference to his balance and his ability to repeat his deliver, but i was hoping for more.
Does he stay online? how much effort is in his delivery? how is his arm action? how is arm speed? does he land on a stiff front leg? does he throw across his body? how well does he hide the ball? what are his other pitches? how do they move? how does he command them? in what situations does he like to throw them? Are there any specifics – notes from actual games?
I have no doubt the article is written by an informed source, but the article misses on informing us on Darvish.
btw 92-94 is not a fringe fastball in the big leagues. Lincecum’s avg fb velo was 92.3 last year. Gallardo and Greinke had similar numbers 92.7 and 92.5 (i tried to think of hard throwing righties).
Might as well throw out a large posting fee. Then his rights are ours, but not the player. Just because we win the posting fee doesn’t mean he is a lock to sign with us. We should still negotiate with CC, CJ, and EJax while we talk to Yu. No need to stop kicking the tires on the other guys. Everything pretty much runs off resigning CC though. Without him, CJ becomes the priority, not Darvish.
The comments about no use of FIP and XFIP in Mandel’s write-up are misplaced. This is an article written for a general audience. ERA is a perfectly good, comprehesible way to talk about a pitcher to such an audience, even if it incorporates some extraneous variables. Everyone gets what “five consecutive years of ERAs below 2.00″ means.
exactly.
F*ckin? remarkable issues here. I am very happy to see your article. Thanks a lot and i’m looking ahead to contact you. Will you kindly drop me a e-mail?