The graphical Bartolo Colon

By Larry Koestler On July 15, 2011 · 6 Comments · In Graphs, Statistical Analysis

(AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Frank Gunn)

As many have noted, something seemed off with ‘s non-performance against the Blue Jays last night. After the game, Colon himself noted that he doesn’t have complete confidence in his leg, and if that is indeed the case it sounds like he could use some additional time to heal from the pulled hamstring suffered on June 11.

It wasn’t difficult to see that Colon was missing his spots last night, but I wanted to take a look and see where exactly he was locating in comparison to his previous outings, and so I’ve created a couple of charts to show what Colon’s average H-break and V-break were for his three primary pitches between the beginning of the season and his injury (3/31/2011 – 6/11/2011), and his three subsequent starts since returning from the DL. (Data from Brooks and Texas Leaguers).

Based on his results from the first few months of the season, Colon’s four-seamer needs nearly 10 inches of rise to be as effective as possible, and he hasn’t gotten it that high since returning. He lost about two inches of rise in his starts against the Mets and Rays, while the pitch became essentially useless against the Blue Jays, with a scant 5 inches of vertical break. Horizontally he’s been pretty consistent on throwing it inside to righties.

He doesn’t throw the slider that often, but based on H-break it looks like it was catching too much of the plate in last night’s game and also dropping more than three inches lower than it had been during Colon’s awesome months.

Like his Four-Seamer, Colon’s Two-Seamer has lost more than half its average vertical break, though he’s been pretty consistent horizontally.

I recently noted that was having similar issues getting his fastball to rise to its previous levels against Cleveland, and between Phil’s injury history and Colon’s hamstring, I think it’s safe to say that if pitchers aren’t fully trusting their legs they aren’t able to generate the vertical break required on their fastballs to be effective, which is clearly a major problem.

Colon’s been a valuable component of the 2011 Yankees, but his results during his last two outings have not put the Yankees in a position to win either game, and if he’s anything less than 100% the Bombers will have to call up. Additionally, if Colon did indeed rush back from injury and is now sidelined for a significant amount of time, it likely makes the need for Brian Cashman to acquire a starting pitcher that much greater.

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6 Responses to The graphical Bartolo Colon

  1. shimig says:
    July 15, 2011 at 1:40 pm

    nova in 2 miL starts: 15 k 1 bb

    [Reply]

  2. Frank says:
    July 15, 2011 at 2:22 pm

    I not surprised at all Colon is hurt. It takes more than 2 weeks to recover from a hamstring injury even if it’s just a “minor strain” as reported by the Yanks. Moreso, for a pitcher. You could tell in his last start he wasn’t right. For him to fully recover, he’ll need at least 1 month off. I know the Yanks are desperate for pitching, but they definitely screwed it up with Colon by rushing him back.

    [Reply]

  3. Duh, Innings! says:
    July 15, 2011 at 2:41 pm

    The Yankees should call up Nova and Romero, move Colon to the bullpen, trade Logan and Mitre ideally to NL teams.

    The Yankees’ minimum goal from hereonin should be gain a game on Tampa Bay this month and next so they’re eight games ahead of Tampa Bay through August and guaranteed at least the wildcard barring an epic collapse in September. I do not see Toronto, Cleveland, Oakland, Minnesota, the Chi-Sox, or the Angels making serious runs at the wildcard.

    Texas does not concern me as a first round opponent because as well as they are playing this year, they do not have Cliff Lee this time around nor do they have a guy on his level as well as Ugando and Wilson have been pitching. If the Yankees contain Hamilton, they will sweep or 4-game Texas. Detroit the team I think will utlimately win the AL Central does not concern me as a first round opponent because Sabathia can go toe to toe with Verlander in Game 1 and if necessary Game 5. The Yankees have smacked up Verlander in the past enough where I think they could do it again. If the Yankees contain Miguel Cabrera, they will most likely sweep or 4-game Detroit.

    Boston as an ALCS opponent doesn’t concern me as Fenway Park favors all offenses, so it’ll come down to who has the better pitching, three games at Fenway or four.

    [Reply]

  4. Lingering Injury, Declining Velocity Make Colon a Second Half Gamble | New York Yankees blog, Yankees blog, A blog about the New York Yankees | The Yankee Analysts says:
    July 15, 2011 at 3:25 pm

    [...] The graphical Bartolo Colon [...]

  5. bornwithpinstripes says:
    July 15, 2011 at 3:25 pm

    must throw this game out unless he is hurt…a super long inning extended by dribblers and an error and a few close pitches not called strikes..he deserves a few more starts to worry about another pitcher..i think hje comes back strong

    [Reply]

  6. bornwithpinstripes says:
    July 15, 2011 at 3:25 pm

    must throw this game out unless he is hurt…a super long inning extended by dribblers and an error and a few close pitches not called strikes..he deserves a few more starts to worry about another pitcher..i think he comes back strong

    [Reply]

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