As we near closer to the July 31st trade deadline, I’m sure many of you have been wondering what has happened to the ranking of some of the various Yankee top farmhands. While true talent level doesn’t change, how that talent level is perceived can have a big impact on how other GMs view a package, choosing to go with it or look elsewhere. Prospects are like stocks whose valuation can go up and down, particularly as they climb the organizational ladder. Baseball America did a quick review last week, touting the fine season Austin Romine has had thus far. Jairo Heredia also received some love in the piece, getting tabbed as the Yankee prospect who has made the “Biggest leap forward”. Yankee Farm Director Mark Newman had this to say on Romine:
“He has hit very well and played well defensively,” farm director Mark Newman said of the 2007 second-rounder. “He has become really strong defensively. He manages a game well. At the plate his walk-to-strikeout ratio (19-to-30) is up 30 percent from last year, and he is swinging at better pitches.”
The BP Top 50 mid season list by Kevin Goldstien came out this morning, here’s how the Yankee farmhands stacked up, with preseason rankings added:
7. Jesus Montero (Pre-season #3)
He has not yet put up big numbers this year; there is clearly a frustration factor as he has nowhere to go in New York. At some point, the Yankees just have to trade him and accept the fact that he’ll rake elsewhere.
14. Manny Banuelos (Pre-season #27)
Command has slipped a bit, but he remains a lefty with two excellent pitches in his fastball and changeup. Has looked better as the season has worn on and could be poised for a big second half.
24. Dellin Betances (Pre-season #32)
Dominant stuff to be sure, but whispers about him possibly being better off as a late-inning reliever are becoming more common these days.
39. Gary Sanchez (Pre-season #29)
Seemingly in the process of being written off because he hasn’t dominated, Sanchez has shown impressive power for an 18-year-old while making sufficient strides behind the plate for scouts to project him as an adequate defender.
To no surprise, Montero’s stock has dropped substantially. What makes that ranking worse is that most of the top 10 from the preseason list (Trout, Brown, Chapman, Moustakas, Hellickson) have been promoted, so if Montero was producing as expected he should be right behind Bryce Harper. The same could be said of Sanchez, who had all sorts of trouble adjusting in his first promotion through the system. Banuelos and Betances held their own, and one could argue that Betances deserves to be put ahead of Manny Banny due to their respective 2011 campaigns. Betances has been almost unhittable in AA, allowing just 42 hits in 237 at-bats (.177), and just 10 extra-base hits in his 13 outings this year. But Manny’s younger, healthier, left handed and has always been considered to be the safer bet.
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I am sick of these scouts accounts for what the Yanks should do with Montero. It is pretty obvious he will be the DH/back up catcher next year, once Posada is gone. He absolutely has a position there for 5 years, before Teix is gone. Half catching and Half DHing. That allows the Yankees to rotate the DH when he is catching and rest others. It is the perfect situation.
Even if he could catch well, look at Mauer. Big catchers break down, why drag his bat down catching 130+ games a year.
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Steve S. Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 9:40 am
What’s more valuable, a backup Catcher/DH who you’re always trying find ABs for, or a top of the rotation starter? Throw in the fact that Alex, Derek and Tex need days off here and there, so they’ll be increasingly taking some of those ABs at DH as we go forward.
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Justivr Beaver Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 11:53 am
Since there are currently no top of the rotation starters on the market, your hypothetical holds no water. I addressed in my post how Montero would get at bats. Catching around 80 games a year and dhing the rest, which leaves ample dh time for everyone else.
Additionally, when a position player is projected to have the bat he has, regardless of his current down season, you find a way to get him in the lineup and without posada that is not difficult in the slightest.
Moreover, Josh Johnson, Felix, Kershaw and whoever else are not available, nor should they be.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 4:38 pm
The Yankees could have Jimenez right now if they part with Montero, Banuelos, and Betances. So yes there is a top of the rotation starter available, it’s just a steep price. One I think should be paid.
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Steve S. Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 7:44 pm
Montero plus both Banuelos and Betances sounds like an asking price to me. 1 of the three Yankee catchers (their pick) and one of the Killer Bs plus some filler sounds like a fair deal to me. His contract is so favorable, you have to part with at least two of your top prospects, plus two other useful pieces to make it work for both sides.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 8:54 pm
I don’t see anyway you get Ubaldo for anything less than Montero, Banuelos, and Betances. It’s an overpay, but they won’t trade him unless whatever team gets him does overpay.
It’s not about what’s fair. I really can’t see them doing it for a catcher, a B, and filler. They aren’t shopping, they are only listening in case they get blown away.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 9:07 pm
I think it’s likely, if not for sure that the 3 of them would out career WAR Ubaldo. But how could you pass up having a 1-2 punch of Sabathia and Ubaldo for the next 4-7 years? It would give us an immediate leg up on almost any competition in the AL this season, and give us one of the 2-3 best 1-2 punches in baseball for the foreseeable future.
I think we do match up well with them too, because they “value Montero” but only as a first baseman. Plus they would want pitching in return as well.
Maybe they would be willing to do Montero, Banuelos, Nova, and Noesi/Warren/phelps. But I don’t see it.
Steve S. Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 10:23 pm
They really don’t need a catcher. Ianetta is very productive and their #2 prospect is a Catcher with “an impact bat” in Wilin Rosario who’s better than Montero defensively.
Helton is getting old and is only signed through this year (2013 club option) so you’ll have to sell Montero as a 1B to O’Dowd. That’s OK, most scouts think he’s a 1B anyway. But the Yanks have lots of MLB ready pitching to give up. Nova, Noesi, Warren, plus the Killer Bs. I think the Rockies need pitching, and a package of a B plus those other guys could work. They need some depth at starter, plus an eventual replacement. I know Nova/Noesi/Warren aren’t high end, but they’re MLB ready and those guys have significant value.
UYF1950 Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 12:07 pm
Steve, I agree with your reply to Justice Beaver above. It would seem to me that either Montero or Romine at sometime in the near future will be traded. The question then becomes. Who provides the Yankees the greatest value either via a trade or by being promoted to the big league club? If Montero can get the Yankees a “top notch” starter by them trading him, I say go for it. I’m not sure there is that much of a fall off from Montero to Romine, if it was Romine that the Yankees decided to keep in the organization. Clearly they don’t need both guys and that’s not even taking into account Sanchez at 18 years old progressing through the Yankees system in the next 2 or 3 years. Keeping Montero just to be a back up catcher and part time DH completely underestimates his value to the club. I recall someone from the YesNetwork commenting during spring training that prospects are like currency to the Yankees. Well in my opinion it’s time to spend some of the currency. Especially when the Yankees do need a solid #2 in the rotation.
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I’ve seen Jesus play a few times in the year (im in nc so its been when scranton have played the Durham bulls) and he looked like a catcher, he was a little stiff sometimes but for the most part looked comfortable at the position, and he seems to call a good game and has a strong accurate arm. In one game there were two stolen bases but it seemed to me that there was more inability of the pitcher to control the run game than it was the Catchers fault.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 4:40 pm
He has a strong arm, but he has a very slow throwing motion because of his size. Montero has been run on more than any catcher in triple A both this year, and last. He has also because of that allowed more stolen bases than any other catcher. He is cumbersome behind the plate, and while he could be a warm body behind the plate he is going to cost his team runs doing so.
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Where have you heard anything about Betances being better off as a late inning reliever? I haven’t seen where thats been talked about at all. I know that having better command and improving his change-up are his keys to being a starter.
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Steve S. Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 3:01 pm
That’s been speculated on for years. Some baseball people think he’ll never be consistent enough with his mechanics to be a starter. I will say this, he will need to improve upon his current BB/9 to crack the Yankee rotation.
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Mike Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 4:24 pm
I agree with that. Its just he was gonna be a reliever then I think he would be in our bullpen right now. He has the kind of fastball-curveball combo to dominate in relief. But they should continue to develop him as a starter until proven other wise.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 4:26 pm
You always put someone in the rotation if you have hope they can get to that point. The fall back is always the bullpen for failed starters. You wouldn’t take away his chance to work his way into a rotation spot, even if you think he eventually ends up as a closer or reliever of some kind.
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Steve S. Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 7:53 pm
It goes without saying that starters are worth more than relievers, but these decisions get based on where the organization thinks a player will be effective. Again, the BB/9 he’s putting up this year won’t work in the bigs, especially the AL East. MLB hitters will wait him out and sit on his fastball.
From what I’ve seen of Betances, I think he gets ridiculously wild at times. But I have liked his ability to self correct on the fly, which is huge. Also, being wild can sometimes work to your advantage. Francisco Liriano has often been called “effectively wild” as was early Randy Johnson. If your stuff is that unhittable, you can get away with it. As a famous Yankee broadcaster likes to say “You can walk guys, you can give up hits, but you can’t do both.”
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I agree with that. Its just he was gonna be a reliever then I think he would be in our bullpen right now. He has the kind of fastball-curveball combo to dominate in relief. But they should continue to develop him as a starter until proven otherwise.
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“They really don’t need a catcher. Ianetta is very productive and their #2 prospect is a Catcher with “an impact bat” in Wilin Rosario who’s better than Montero defensively.
Helton is getting old and is only signed through this year (2013 club option) so you’ll have to sell Montero as a 1B to O’Dowd. That’s OK, most scouts think he’s a 1B anyway. But the Yanks have lots of MLB ready pitching to give up. Nova, Noesi, Warren, plus the Killer Bs. I think the Rockies need pitching, and a package of a B plus those other guys could work. They need some depth at starter, plus an eventual replacement. I know Nova/Noesi/Warren aren’t high end, but they’re MLB ready and those guys have significant value.”
There is no way to know what is true, but everything you read says they like Montero, and value him as a “first baseman of the future” type. Plus his bat would play up in that park, with that sort of environment.
I understand the value guys like Noesi/Nova/Warren/Phelps provide, but those type of guys strike me as someone you get back for a Liriano type. Not a legit proven ace, who has Justin Verlander like stuff when he is on his game. I have a higher opinion of Jimenez than a lot around here I guess, but I have been a huge fan of his for years, and wanted the Yankees to try for him 2 or 3 years ago before his 19 win season last year ever happened.
I understand not wanting to part with both Betances and Banuelos, and trust me I love Banuelos. But I have, and have always had, this feeling that one of them isn’t going to mature into a top end starter. I think the likely candidate is Betances for that. But if you win2-3 World Series with Ubaldo, and look back in a few years and Betances is a closer, Banuelos is a 2-3 starter, and Montero is raking I think you can justify it as a win-win.
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