Games in the middle of July are never important with respect to the standings or the playoffs. A five game losing or winning streak around this time of year can prove critical come September, but a single game in a 162 game season with about 75 games to go is never such a big deal. With that in mind, let’s get right down to what did on the mound last night, because that was the most important part of last night’s game in Cleveland.
Hughes, in short, was erratic. His final line of five innings, six hits, two runs, two walks and two strike outs was respectable, short of the length, but how he got there didn’t inspire much confidence. He was awful in the first, allowing his first three base runners to reach and was lucky that only two runs scored. He was efficient over the next three innings, before struggling again in the fifth.
Hughes was also, in many ways, a different pitcher than we’ve seen in the past. His fastball velocity was around 92-93 mph, but it was straight. He was also missing his spots in the zone. Either by design to change his approach, or in response to his struggles with his fastball, Hughes threw more curveballs and changeups than he did last season, to mixed effect. When he couldn’t locate those pitches, he struggled to put batters away with two strikes, something that drove just about everybody nuts in the second half of last season. When he was working efficiently he got a lot of ground ball and fly ball outs, which was something he couldn’t do consistently last season.
In total Hughes showed enough to earn himself another start or two, but no conclusions can be drawn from this performance. On the one hand it can be argued that he was solid in the middle innings of his first come back performance and has room to build. On the other hand, was the only batter in the five through nine spots in the Cleveland lineup with an OBP above .310. Just about any pitcher should be able to get those guys out. Hughes may not have been as successful against a good offensive team, such as the Red Sox or the Tigers.
The important thing to remember, apart from the fact that it is only July and the Yankees are still in first place (albeit by only half a game), is that the Yankees don’t urgently need Hughes to become a viable starter again. It is great if he regains his form, but certainly demonstrated his abilities. If Hughes struggles Nova is in AAA working as a starter to remain stretched out. The Yankees can call him up again, or package him as part of a trade for another starter if Hughes can’t get the job done. That may not be a palatable option, but it remains a viable one.
On to , who embarrassed the Yankees. Masterson has a side arm, sling shot delivery, and primarily throws a hard sinker. He was putting that pitch where he wanted. The gun in Cleveland had him routinely hitting 96 mph on his sinker. No one is hitting that pitch and the Yankees made sure they looked bad not doing it. Masterson lasted through eight shutout innings while allowing just five base runners and striking out six. Cleveland was up 3-0 when he left the game.
The Yankees made it interesting, however, scoring three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning on a string of hits, the highlight of which was a double. Unfortunately, had turned to none other than earlier in the game. In response Mitre made sure that 3-0 hole became a 5-0 hole, making the ninth inning rally nothing more than an interesting side story.
At this point it warrants asking what crime Mitre is capable of framing Girardi or Brian Cashman for? Murder? Treason against the Federal Government? Owning a copy of Fever Pitch? The largest frustration here is that the Yankees have a bevvy of capable arms in AAA that at the very worst would give the team the same disadvantages Mitre provides, and on the plus side could demonstrate their ability in the big leagues and raise their value. and Ivan Nova come to mind immediately (I understand that Nova is being kept in a starter’s role for a reason, but still). If the team has a role on it for Mitre, it beseeches the question (nevermind begs, I’m using a stronger word here) why not one of the team’s prospects? Rant over.
The Yankees come back home tomorrow and look to right the ship in the friendly confines of the Bronx now that they’ve lost three of their last four. The Rays will not make it easy on them. The Yankees get to run the gamut of , and as part of a four game home stand. All three of those guys can pitch. Shields is having a monster season, and last year the Yankees couldn’t have hit Price with a paddle and radar. Fortunately, tomorrow’s game favors the Yankees. toes the rubber for Tampa, while the Yankees counter with . This game, along with Hellickson’s start, augur the best for the Yankees.
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“Begs the question” was supposed to mean “avoids the question.” It’s been misused so long it’s meaning is changing, but it’s unreliable. I think “Beseeches the question” is much better.
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Tom Swift Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 11:28 am
More accurately, it should be used to mean something like “assumes your conclusion.” It’s one of those phrases that never should be used because it will be either be used incorrectly or misunderstood by the hearer or reader.
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I didn’t get to see much of Hughes’ start last night so I won’t touch on that much, but I do disagree that Hughes throwing a 92-93 MPH straight fastball is something different than we have seen. Hughes’ fastball from last year did average 92 MPH, and one of the biggest knocks on Phil before he went to the pen was that his fastball was straight as a string. He’s always been a power pitcher, without true power pitcher stuff.
As far as Masterson goes he has now come up big in two big starts for him, one vs us, and one vs his old team the Red Sox. He still struggles against lefties, but he has really turned things around as a starter.
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Mike Jaggers-Radolf Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 9:23 am
My understanding was that Hughes’ fastball is his best pitch because of its late movement in the zone. I had always taken it as a given that when he is on his fastball has a natural cutting motion, which makes it a tough pitch to hit at 93 mph. I didn’t see that last night.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 9:44 am
Before he went into the bullpen I remember constant criticism of Hughes’ fastball being too straight. I have vivid memory of it being called “straight as a string”. Now maybe this was because of the several years of injuries he went through, or maybe going to the pen added movement, and when he went back to the rotation his arm was rested from not throwing starter innings and kept the movement. But pre-bullpen his fastball was very straight. The whole reason for adding the cutter to his repetoire was to add a fastball with movement.
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And by the way, I think you’re wrong about games not meaning much. I think teams that approach games as being more important win more games. That’s aside from making bad decisions about playing guys with injuries, of course, or not resting guys properly. I won’t say it’s a whole lot of games, and it’s surely not the Yankees’ strongest weapon, but it is a weapon. Bill James cited Leo Durocher’s main value as a manager being that his teams came to beat you NOW, and had intensity, and he cited Durocher as a great manager.
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smurfy Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 9:03 am
good thinking, Professor
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Mike Jaggers-Radolf Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 9:25 am
Every game is important and teams should play to win every game they can. However, any individual game in July is not as important as an individual game in September. Throwing Hughes on the mound was the equivalent of saying “we’re prepared to lose this game” because there was a legitimate risk Hughes would put the Yankees in a big hole as he did earlier in the season. If he did, it wouldn’t be that big a deal at all. That was my point. I certainly do not advocate for the Yankees taking it easy moving forward.
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Professor Longnose Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 11:38 am
I don’t think you were saying that the Yankees could take it easy, and certainly they had to start Hughes last night for future considerations, even if he wasn’t the best chance to win yesterday.
That said, I don’t think the Yankees should say (or feel) anything like “we’re prepared to lose this game.” I prefer, “We may have to do more to win this game than usual.” This is a difficult area to discuss. because there’s no way to prove how attitude affects games. But I get the feel that Girardi leans too much to the “it’s OK to lose this game” side.
As I recall, this emphasis on winning series is pretty recent–from the Torre era. I don’t remember it before then. You didn’t worry about winning series; you worried about winning games. Maybe it’s just because I was brought up on that kind of baseball, but I prefer it.
I disagree that a game in September is worth more than a game in July. Clearly they’re both worth exactly the same amount in the standings. There’s less time to recover from losses in September. But having to come back from, say, 4 games behind in September rather than 3 is just as important, as far as how things play out in September, as winning a game when you’re 4 games back in September.
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Mike was spot on regarding the straightness of Hughes fastball. I also mentioned my fear of Mitre coming in the game yesterday afternoon considering Hughes would be on a limit. I propose a Mitre rule stating he cannot come in the game unless the yanks are up/down six runs. A 3 run game is obviously still a winnable game for the yankees, as shown last night.
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The team clearly doesn’t want to use prospects as mopup men (th treatment of Noesi is odd, though). There is value to a guy who soaks up those innings and can be counted on to be replacement level every season. Go look at his numbers as a Yankee, not that bad. Instead of cycling through a zillion guys in that role, many who give you sub-replacement performance, you know what you’ll get.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 9:15 am
It seemed like for a while that he was going to take over Robertson’s old role of 7th inning man, right up until the very bad outing he had a week ago or so and then things changed. I’m not sure at this point what you can call Noesi’s role. I would like to see him used a lot like Aceves. A guy who can give you multiple innings, but someone you aren’t afraid to let setup in the 7th or 8th in a close game.
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Mike Jaggers-Radolf Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 9:27 am
But down 3-0 it wasn’t a mop up situation. The Yankees may not have scored three runs in the top of the ninth if the Indians had gone to Perez from the start, but the game wasn’t lost yet. Mitre’s lousy performance put it out of hand. Why not turn the ball over to a more valuable option?
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 9:30 am
Like? Who do they have in the bullpen right now who is so clearly better than Mitre that you can’t go to Sergio with a win expectancy of 2%? You aren’t going to DRob in those spots or he’d pitch every game.
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Mike Jaggers-Radolf Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 9:48 am
I would counter Noesi, who unless I missed something is still on the team but not getting used much.
I just don’t see eye-to-eye with the Yankee brass on this one. I’ll concede that down 3-0 in the 8th is still a mop up situation, even if the game is close, but that doesn’t make it substantially easier to get big league hitters out.
Is there no value to giving a prospect who doesn’t have a lot of value to the team, but may be a useful trade chip, a chance to show off his skills in that situation?
Mitre’s only value to the Yankees is that he is a cheap mop up guy. Why not then give Noesi more opportunities to pitch at the big league level, or Warren or Phelps? Even if it is just for a limited stretch, a successful appearance or two would raise their value.
In all probability, given the make up of the current Yankee roster, none of those guys will make the team as a starter as anything other than a stop-loss. Which means eventually they will be traded. My argument is that letting them pitch in those situations increases their profile and perhaps their value.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 9:54 am
Phelps is on the DL with a shoulder injury, and I read an interview the other day in which it was said Warren still has more to work on in order to be a starter. I doubt they want to interupt that development to make him a mop up guy, especially when he isn’t an overpowering pitcher in the first place. Also the Yankees 40 man is really tight, so I doubt their adding anyone they can’t take off for one or two apperances, or for a role someone else can do as well.
I do agree I would’ve rather seen Noesi in that spot.
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Mike Jaggers-Radolf Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 10:04 am
Those are fair points. I forgot about the roster and injury issues.
I’m keeping these kinds of thoughts to our comments section because they are not developed enough for a post, but in general this season I’m becoming frustrated with my impression that the Yankees don’t use their farm system as much as they could.
It may be a case of thinking like a fan, but I wouldn’t mind seeing more of these opportunities got to the rookies in the future.
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JohnnyC Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 11:21 am
Mike, if you do a piece on that issue, look into the 40 man roster situation — the main excuse used every time this issue is brought up. Is it a legitimate concern or is it a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy that “restricts” their options?
I thought Hughes’ start was pretty disappointing. Sure, if we put it into context against what he did earlier in the year it was a lot better, and the outputs (5 IP, 2 ER) were good enough, but the process was pretty murky. As I noted on Twitter last night, Phil put way too many men on base (1.60 WHIP), and lucked out of it pretty nicely (4.54 FIP/6.17 xFIP).
Also, not that anyone needed numbers to see that Phil was missing his spots, but his four-seamer sucked last night. While he got his velocity almost back to where it was last season (avg 91.5mph last night compared to 92.5mph in 2010) he wasn’t fooling anyone (zero swinging strikes), was back to his usual “can’t put anyone away with two strikes” antics, and couldn’t locate it for anything, as it was missing 2 inches of H-break and 3 inches of V-break from last season.
Now obviously one start doesn’t tell us anything, and I’m hopeful that he’s better than this, but he still has a lot of work ahead of him.
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Mike Jaggers-Radolf Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 9:28 am
All of which makes me wonder why the team is so down on Nova and so high on Hughes. Nova has never had Hughes’ upside potential, but so far he hasn’t shown the downside potential either. I’m curious to see how much slack the team gives Phil.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 9:50 am
Hughes is Cashman’s baby so to speak. We all know Cashman’s number 1 personal goal is to sign/draft a pitcher and develop him in house into an ace. He put a lot of those chips on Hughes, and he is going to give him every opportunity to turn into that. Just like when they finally make it to the show Betances and Banuelos will already have a leg up on any competition they may face.
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Soup Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 10:29 am
It sucks that his number 1 personal goal is to develop a pitcher, it should be to field the best team possible.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 8th, 2011 at 6:37 am
That’s his number 1 overall goal… the personal goals come after that, but everyone has them. Derek Jeter’s number 1 goal should be winning world series rings, but getting 3000 hits went on his personal goal list at one point too.
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Soup Reply:
July 8th, 2011 at 9:58 am
His personal goal is interfering with his overall goal; team would be better if it weren’t for his unwillingness to part with prospects for top of the rotation talent.
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Also, when did Justin Masterson start throwing 95mph? Fangraphs has his average FB velocity at 92.5mph on the season; if he consistently threw that sinker at 95mph he’d probably morph into one of the best pitchers in baseball.
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Mike Jaggers-Radolf Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 9:49 am
Last night, apparently.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 9:58 am
Its likely that gun was juiced. I mean Sabathia averages 93 but he was close to 97 all night long in his start.
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Soup Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 10:13 am
That doesn’t bode well for Hughes, if the gun was juiced.
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The velocity is encouraging but he didn’t miss a single bat with his fastball or cutter and that’s not going to cut it as a ML starter. An ERA just North of 5 would be OK for a back of the rotation starter IF he was giving us innings but he can’t do that if he can’t put anyone away.
Another problem is, even if he does well for the rest of this season, you can’t really count on him for a full season next year. I would’ve rather gotten a little more insight into what we could expect from Nova, since right now next year projects to be CC and 4 question marks and, even thought that’s worked out so far this season, I don’t want to roll the dice on that formula again.
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Mike Jaggers-Radolf Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 10:40 am
CC is possibly a free agent next year.
If Colon and Garcia hold up through the playoffs – a big if – I could see the Yankees offering each a one year deal.
If the Yankees have that many openings in the rotation, I would once again expect Nova to get the call at the start of the year.
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Soup Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 11:07 am
It’s a pretty damning evidence towards Cashman’s inability to build a staff if they need CC more now than they did when they signed him.
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Mike Jaggers-Radolf Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 11:53 am
I disagree. Pitching is hard to come by and often expensive. The Yankee win now mentality, which is justified, makes it hard for the Yankees to develop their own pitchers the way other teams do. Furthermore, more and more teams are locking up their young pitchers, restricting options on the trade and free agency markets. As a result, the Yankees find it tough to fill immediate rotation slots. If the team were willing to tank for two years, it may be able to fill three slots with Nova, Betances and Banuelos, but it can’t.
Cashman made one questionable deal in A.J. (to whom I am still greatful for game 2 of the 2009 WS) and got unlucky when Pettitte retired. CC was a brilliant move, and Colon and Garcia were smart bets that paid off. Given the limited options I’m satisified with how the staff situation has shaken out.
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Soup Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 12:07 pm
The proof is in the results and we’ve had a mediocre staff for over 5 years since Cashman took over. Yes, teams are locking up their young pitchers early and that’s precisely why he should be willing to give up what’s necessary to acquire top talent when it’s available, especially if, as you say, their “win now mentality” makes it hard for the Yankees to develop their own pitchers, which has certainly been evidenced with their missteps the last few years.
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MJ Recanati Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 12:29 pm
“[W]e’ve had a mediocre staff for over 5 years since Cashman took over.”
I assume you mean since Cashman was given “full control” after the 2005 season.
NY Yankee pitchers ERA+ (starters & reliever) since 2006:
2006: 103
2007: 101
2008: 104
2009: 108
2010: 106
2011: 118
I fully accept that ERA+ isn’t the best way to go about this excercise but it also looks to me like the team’s pitching is getting better and part of that has to do with more young pitchers being integrated into the mix (both in the bullpen and the rotation).
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Soup Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 12:39 pm
Try the starters, it’s pretty mediocre
I agree that they don’t need Hughes to be a serviceable starter because Nova can replace him in the rotation if necessary, and achieve that. But, I think they do need Hughes to step up and be a top of the rotation starter, because otherwise you are dependent on Burnett to be a key playoff starter. Alas, I have little confidence Hughes can be that guy. Regardless of his velocity, I seem to remember he had a terrific plus curve that could put hitters away consistently. Seems like a distant memory…
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Calling Hughes “ok” last night is being extremely generous. While 5 innings and 2 runs sounds solid, it was only luck that kept it from getting worse.
I thought Hughes looked horrible. Perhaps not 89 mph 13+ ERA horrible, but he still looked utterly hittable out there. At best, he looked like second half of 2010 Hughes, and that’s not a guy worth having in the rotation. It was just one start, but very discouraging.
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I’ve given up on Hughes. I just don’t see him as any better than a 5th starter. Basically, his stuff isn’t there anymore and he just can’t seem to put batters away after getting two strikes on them. Time to trade him and move on.
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Tom Swift Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 11:30 am
His fastball looked awfully straight. He has to get more movement on that pitch to be successful.
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My the talk about Hughes has changed drasticially from the past few weeks when ALL OF YOU were defending Hughes replacing Nova to the death.
Hughes WAS lucky he didn’t draw the Red Sox or Tigers because either would’ve had him for dinner sometime after 7pm and shit him out by 11pm.
Bottom line is he did not pitch as good as Nova has pitched lately and most of the year thus is a downgrade from Nova so far, deal with it.
Replacing Nova with Hughes was/is a stupid move. Even though I think the Yankees would’ve still lost last night against Masterson had they started Nova because Masteron was lights out, the loss would not have been nearly as negative with Nova starting as it would’ve been with Hughes. One could argue if Hughes went a so-so five, Nova would’ve went an at worst so-so six and at best a decent seven, and if the latter we would not have seen the monstrosity known as Sergio Mitre who needs to be cut now. There HAS to be someone on the farm better than Mitre. Why not call Brian Gordon back up? I’d feel better about him mopping up after a starter gets knocked out early than Mitre.
The Yankees are doing it all wrong with Hughes. For one, if they HAVE to start him, they should’ve done so after the All-Star Break because he’s still off for a dozen days/almost two weeks until 7/19 since the front four starters would’ve started the first four games after the ASB in Toronto 7/14-17.
I would’ve done this instead of start Hughes last night / the Yankees should do this with Hughes after the All-Star Break:
Burnett/Sabathia/Colon/Garcia @ Toronto 7/14-17
Nova/Burnett/Sabathia/Colon @ Tampa Bay 7/18-21
HUGHES/Garcia/Nova vs. Oakland 7/22-24
Sabathia/Burnett/Colon vs. Seattle 7/25-27 (Hughes on standby for 7/27)
Garcia/Sabathia/Nova vs. Baltimore 7/29-31
Burnett/Colon/Garcia/HUGHES @ Chi-Sox 8/1-4
Sabathia/Burnett/Colon/Garcia @ Boston 8/5-8
HUGHES 8/9 vs. the Angels
Sabathia pitches on normal rest save 7/30 with the day off 7/28. He also pitches in five of the first seven series after the ASG,
The Yankees could give Hughes two innings 7/27 (Colon’s start) if they have a big enough lead. Ideally they’re up by 4 or more runs after seven and Hughes finishes the game. Even better would be if the Yankees beat up Seattle something like 7-1 after 5, they take out Colon to rest him and Hughes finishes the game for the save.
What is horrible about the recent losses is one loss was due to a backup SS making an error and setting up the winning run (Pena vs.the Mets) and a guy the Yankees traded for cash in the offseason (spring training?) they brought back (Mitre last night.) These two are the worst players on the roster. They cannot afford to lose games due to the incompetence of basically their #24 and #25 players (Mitre being #24, Pena #25.)
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Soup Reply:
July 7th, 2011 at 12:11 pm
Yeah, I’m not sure why they needed to rush him back so quickly. Shades of Wang’s early return, though the consequence probably won’t be as great.
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[...] more here: Phil Hughes was at best ok, Justin Masterson … – The Yankee Analysts AKPC_IDS += "25085,"; AKPC_IDS += [...]
[...] I recently noted that Phil Hughes was having similar issues getting his fastball to rise to its previous levels against Cleveland, and based on Phil’s injury history, if pitchers aren’t fully trusting their legs, they aren’t able to generate the vertical break required on their fastballs to be effective, which is clearly a major problem. [...]