Sanchez and Liriano
Last year at the All-Star break I did a three-part series taking a look at the Yankees’ perceived areas of weakness and how the team might go about fixing each of them. This year I’ve condensed the “Areas of Need” series into two posts, as I’m not sure the team’s needs are as pressing as they were last season. Sure, everyone could use a top-flight starter, another bat or bullpen help, but this year’s squad has performed a good deal better than I think many of us had expected prior to the season, and if there are upgrades to be had, they will most likely only be at the fringes. However, that won’t stop the Yankees from being linked to anyone and everyone.
Yesterday we looked at hitters.
Need #2: A starter
We’ve already explored the possible trade market for and , and while something could happen with one of those hurlers — apparently the Yankees have been watching Wandy pretty closely of late — I haven’t heard anything more definitive regarding who the Yankees would be willing to give up. The Yanks are also apparently somewhat interested in , who has followed last year’s surprisingly strong year with a clunker. Pass.
Another name recently bandied about in these parts is , but I don’t seen any incentive for the Marlins to trade their best starter who’s also in the midst of a career year. I could see Florida moving Sanchez if he were a pending free agent, but being under team control through 2012 would almost certainly make this deal too cost-prohibitive, especially when factoring in the NL-pitcher-moving-to-the-American-League component.
And of course, ‘s name has come up regularly since this past winter, but the enigmatic lefty’s confusing 2011 campaign doesn’t exactly scream reliable-number-two to me at the moment. I’d be interested in Liriano if the price were right, but somehow I don’t see the Yanks and Twins matching up in a deal.
A quick scan of the upcoming free agent list doesn’t exactly yield many promising rentals among non-contenders except perhaps the trio of Chicago pitchers we’ve also analyzed previously, , and . For some reason Humber isn’t appearing on Cot’s list of upcoming free agents, but as best I can tell he signed with the ChiSox as a free agent for one year and they don’t appear to have control of him past 2011. Jackson’s the best of that lot, although I can’t say I feel that strongly about obtaining a pitcher who may well be A.J. Burnett 2.0. I wouldn’t mind rolling the dice with Humber — who’s currently sporting four above-average pitches, including the third-most valuable curveball in the AL — even if this does turn out to be nothing but a fluke year for the righty.
Of the remaining sub-.500 teams:
- Scott Baker‘s having a nice year for the Twins but is signed to a very team-friendly deal through 2013;
- Onetime Yankee draftee is having a very strong campaign for the Mariners but is under team control through 2015;
- I can’t see trading any of his crop of young and cheap arms except for perhaps pending free agent , but dealing with Beane is always a dicey proposition;
- I have zero interest in the Nationals’ , whose underwhelming peripherals scream “I will get eaten alive in the AL East;”
- The Cubbies’ rotation, non- division, scares the crap out of me; and,
- The only Rockie starter I’d be interested in is , and even with a slightly disappointing season and despite what MLBTR may be reporting I doubt he’s going anywhere, given that the club has options on the flamethrower through 2014 and they recently locked their offensive core up for eight million years. Additionally, the Yankees would have to gut their system to get him, and while Ubaldo is good, he’s not King Felix good.
Unfortunately, the combination of many teams still being relatively competitive along with the fact that teams are going to be demanding top trade chips in order to part with anything of value would seem to back up Brian Cashman’s assertion that he doesn’t expect to be able to find top pitching via a trade.
Need #3: A reliever
We’ve heard the Yankees recently linked to the Nationals’ , the Padres’ and Mike Adams, among others. While the team should certainly kick tires where needed, I’m not sure how great the need for relief is — or whether any of the external options represent upgrades over potential in-house reinforcements from AAA — given how strong the Yankee ‘pen has been (2nd-best ERA, 4th-best FIP in the AL) despite losing three players in , and expected to play major roles.
The Mets keep offering Francisco Rodriguez but everything I’ve read says the Yankees have no interest; though if ‘s triceps injury is indeed more significant than they’re letting on then they may have no choice but to import K-Rod. It also sounds like Soriano may be closer to returning than initially expected.
I suppose one could argue that Cashman’s luck in the reliever scrap heap is due to run out, and that just because the ‘pen outperformed expectations in the first half doesn’t necessarily mean it will continue to do so going forward (in fact, the unit’s xFIP is 3.91), but this is the first season in a long time I don’t feel overwhelmingly concerned about the relief corps. However, if it doesn’t look like Soriano will make it back within a reasonable timeframe, I’d imagine Cash will set out to acquire someone a la the deal last season.
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I’ve always had an irrational love of Brandon McCarthey since he came up with the White Sox…loved the changeup, thought he was a star in the making. Of course, going from pitching in Oakland to the AL East is pretty much the same as coming from the NL
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No love for Gavin Floyd of the Chi-Sox?
He is 28 and has pitched 6 or more innings and finished his final inning 14 out of 17 GS, 5 or more IP 15 out of 17. He was 2/3 IP shy of 5 IP one start.
4.59 ERA but 1.263 WHIP (111 H 30 BB), 80 SO, and 8 2/3 IP shy of 7 IP/GS (110 1/3 IP in 17 GS, 111 1/3 IP total cuz he pitched an inning in relief between starts for a loss 5/28.)
He’s had two hard-luck losses, two win-worthy no decisions, and only one gift win.
Getting him would give the Yankees a Sabathia/Burnett/Floyd/Hughes/Nova rotation to start off 2012.
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Larry Koestler Reply:
July 12th, 2011 at 10:43 am
I’m a big Floyd fan and would love it if the Yanks were able to acquire him, but I don’t see how a trade would work. Floyd has one more year left on his team-friendly contract and a team option, and so his trade value would make dealing for him pretty cost-prohibitive.
There’s also the little matter of the AL Central being wide open for the taking, unless the Tigers sack up and finally run away with it. If the ChiSox are still within 5 games by the deadline, I’m pretty sure Kenny Williams and Co. will try to go for it instead of punting their season.
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Duh, Innings! Reply:
July 12th, 2011 at 1:07 pm
I would trade Betances or Banuelos plus one for Floyd because recent history – to me the past 25 years – shows the Yankees have yet to be burnt by trading starting pitching prospects for starters. Also you have to give up something to get something.
Janzen for Cone. Milton for Knoblauch. Lilly for Weaver (Weaver did help the Yankees get to the 2003 World Series albeit in a small way and I don’t buy that Lilly would’ve amounted to anything as a Yankee, he didn’t have the mental makeup to be a Yankee.) Halsey for Randy Johnson. Yarnall for Neagle.
Drabek et.al. for Rhoden, Guante, and Clements doesn’t count because Drabek started out in the Chi-Sox farm system thus was not a homegrown Yankee. And say Drabek was homegrown. I doubt he would’ve been as good as or better than 1987-88 Rhoden or made much of a difference with the hapless 1989-91 Yankees. Would the 1992-93 Yankees with prime Drabek have beaten out the Blue Jays for the division? Who knows?
Leiter for Barfield was not a bad trade because it took Al Leiter a decade to get his act together.
The only Yankee farm system starting pitcher to give the Yankees back to back full seasons after Pettitte was Chien Mien Wang 2006-2007. Wang gave the Yankees basically three full seasons in four with his half seasons sandwiching his full ones. The Yankees never traded Pettitte or Wang. Pettitte left the Yankees then came back and Wang was let go. Who says the Yankees couldn’t re-sign Wang to a minor-league contract one day?
The Yankees have not missed Ted Lilly and I doubt they’ll miss Ian Kennedy. Chamberlain who pitched only one full season as a starter for the Yankees in 2009 will most likely never be a starter for the Yankees again. Hughes might be the next Yankee to pitch back to back full seasons and has a chance to do that 2012-13. If he gives the Yankees a full season next year, he’d be the only Yankee starting pitching prospect after Pettitte and besides Wang to give the Yankees two full seasons as a starter.
Pettitte was the only farm system starting pitcher who made a difference on the 1995-2003 teams.
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Larry Koestler Reply:
July 12th, 2011 at 1:12 pm
Actually, dealing Lilly was arguably one of Cashman’s worst moves of the last 10 years.
I’m not saying that means they should never trade prospects, but if you read that link you’ll see that the Yankee pitching staffs — particularly the ’04-’07 rotations — probably would’ve been better off with Lilly than without.
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Duh, Innings! Reply:
July 12th, 2011 at 1:30 pm
Lilly was an awful headcase for the Yankees and I doubt he would’ve helped the Yankees get to the 2003 World Series and/or the 2004 ALCS, or taken the Yankees further in the 2005-2007 postseason. The dude has been a good and sometimes great starter for the Cubs and Dodgers. Of course he’d thrive with them when there’s no pressure to win with them. Cubs fans turn out in droves regardless of how the team plays every year and Dodgers fans leave in the sixth or seventh inning to beat the traffic. He didn’t have the mental makeup to be a Yankee, the 2003 Yankees were going for it like they always go for it, they took a gamble, and it paid off in the short-term (AL pennant.) Granted Weaver was not a reason for that pennant at all of course but he did win 7 games and didn’t hurt the regular season Yankees, luckily. Lilly probably gives up that walkoff extra-innings homerun Weaver served up. The two were interchangeable as far as I’m concerned. Two peas in a pod who sucked with the Yankees but did well with the Dodgers. Weaver had decent seasons with the Dodgers 2004-2005.
Start Lilly in place of Vasquez or Brown in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS and he crumbles like those two crumbled. Weaver would’ve crumbled, too.
Jeff Weaver helped the St.Louis Cardinals win a World Series. Lucky to be released by the Angels then picked up by the Cardinals yes, but hey, did anyone think the 83-win Cards could win it all? I didn’t and I bet you didn’t. St.Louis saw Weaver as someone who could help them, signed him, and he helped them big time. You could seriously argue Burnett was lucky to sign with the Yankees cuz I doubt he’d have been signed had Mussina coming off a 20-win season decided to stick around for at least 2009. And I think 2009 Mussina would’ve been as good as 2009 Burnett if not better if you go by Moose’s 2008 and overall Yankees career.
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Duh, Innings! Reply:
July 12th, 2011 at 1:36 pm
By “helped them big time”, I mean Weaver won at least one game in every 2006 postseason series. 1-1, 2.77 ERA in the 2006 World Series.
I mean to say Lilly was a serviceable starter for the Blue Jays, not the Dodgers although he was good for them last year, he sucks with them this year. The Yankees haven’t missed Lilly. Lilly for Weaver was inconsequential as both sucked for the Yankees.
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Danks. Im a huge Danks fan, and I think they’ve soured on him a bit in Chicago.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 12th, 2011 at 10:59 pm
I love Danks as well but I can’t see them trading him without Montero and either Netances or Banuelos being involved. If that’s the case I’d rather up the offer and go after an Ubaldo type, with more upside.
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Larry, in additions to the possibilites you mentioned what about Erik Bedard? He’s a lefty and if he’s healthy I think would be a welcome addition.
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Larry Koestler Reply:
July 12th, 2011 at 11:50 am
I actually hadn’t thought about Bedard at all and didn’t even realize he was back in action. Turns out he’s having a pretty nice year for Seattle — I’d be interested in adding him if the price were right, but it’d have to be a pretty great price given Bedard’s injury history as well as the fact that Cash is probably loath to work something out with Jack Z. after last year’s Montero-Lee fiasco.
I’d add that that it could be useful that he also has AL East experience, but having not been in the ALE since 2007 I don’t know how relevant that would be.
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UYF1950 Reply:
July 12th, 2011 at 12:14 pm
I’m sure you’re right about the bad taste it left in Cashman’s mouth. But, you do what you have to do for the good of the team and the team does need another lefty starter. If Bedard is healthy and at a reasonable cost. Being a lefty and pitching in Yankee Stadium is never a bad thing. Just my opinion.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 12th, 2011 at 10:08 pm
Why would the Mariners trade Bedard when they are in it? Right now the strength of that team is the fact they can throw 4 solid starters at you, trading Bedard would be counterproductive. If anything they will be looking to add to the offense and try and make the playoffs.
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I like Buehrle. No question that he is not a big strikeout guy, but he is a big stage player who could thrive in New York, plus he is left handed. I would feel very comfortable with him starting a playoff game.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 12th, 2011 at 11:02 pm
Mark is a good pitcher, but he means a lot to Chicago fans. Because of that I think they would be looking for Montero, or Banuelos in a package in return, and that kind of rental isn’t worth either of those two. I wouldn’t even want to part with Betances for that kind of half a year pitcher. I also wouldn’t want to turn around and sign him to any kind of longterm deal at his age. He’s really nothing more than a number 3 pitcher at this point in his career anyway.
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I’d focus on a reliever that can consistently get lefties out. Logan, unless he pulls a 2010 without working things out in the minors, just isn’t doing it this season. I just don’t see a deal happening for a worthwhile starter.
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Rosenthal thinks the Rockies could be temped to move Jimenez. Cashman should at least take a look there. Sure his fastball is down some, but his other peripherals are still good.
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David, Jr. Reply:
July 12th, 2011 at 1:49 pm
This is the guy that we would really want, as he is a #1 starter type of pitcher who would also help in the future, but it would take a huge offer. Think something like Hughes, Montero, and their B choice as a starter, plus more.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 12th, 2011 at 10:12 pm
I’ve brought this up here before, but I’d trade Montero, Banuelos, Betances, and Nova right now for Ubaldo. If they wanted Hughes over Banuelos or Betances I’d probably do that too. His fastball is showing that’s it’s coming back, and having him and CC at the top of our rotation for the next 6-7 years is more than worth the prospect risk.
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James Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 8:50 pm
I wouldn’t give that much up. Montero, Nova and another high-level prospect, yes.
But Montero, Nova and two out of Hughes, Banuelos and Betances? No. IMO, that is too high a price unless we’re talking Felix Hernandez (who is obviously not available).
I think Banuelos and Betances should be close to untouchable. They represent two of the best pitching prospects to come thru the Yankee Farm System in quite some time… I could see either one or both of them as top level (#1 or #2) ML starters within 3-5 years.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 16th, 2011 at 8:57 pm
If you think you are getting Ubaldo Jimenez for Ivan Nova as one of the main pieces, or one of the two main pieces you might as well not even make the call. Ubaldo is a 27 year old ace, who is under contract through 2014, and is making less than 3 million dollars this year.
Betances and Banuelos are incredibly wild, both walking close to 5 per 9 in double A. They could end up being number 2′s in the MLB one day, but I doubt both of them if either reach that point. They both have talent, but both have been overhyped, and have major obstacles in their development.
I would take away Nova from the equation looking back on it. But I see no way they would trade him for anything less than Montero, Banuelos, and Betances.
No one is “untouchable”. Let’s not forget at one time Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy were all untouchable. Things change, and prospects don’t pan out like you want. I think it’s actually likely that either Banuelos or Betances one end up in the pen before it’s all through.
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