A few days ago commenter Stunna asked me to comment on the idea of the Yankees trading for either or , who — given that neither player’s team is playoff-bound as well as the fact that both teams have ownership issues — have probably been two of the most bandied about names attached to the Bombers as potential trade targets.
As you’d expect, both TYA and River Ave. Blues have already explored the idea of Kuroda, and RAB looked at Wandy last winter before the Astros extended him, so be sure to check those pieces out as well.
Wandy Rodriguez
Since his 2008 breakout season (3.54 ERA/3.62 FIP/3.70 xFIP, 8.58 K/9, 2.88 BB/9), Wandy’s been one of the top 20 starters in the National League, with a cumulative fWAR that ranks him 13th in the league between 2008 and 2010. This season he’s only 41st in fWAR, but that’s primarily due to the fact that he missed a couple of weeks with a small elbow issue. The numbers, as usual, are very good: though his K/9 is trending in the wrong direction, it’s still good enough at 7.38, he’s currently boasting the lowest BB/9 of his career (2.42), and his BABIP (.308) and GB% (44.8%) are right in line with his career rates. He’s also currently carrying what would be the lowest ERA of his career (2.88), though his FIP (3.74) is inflated due to an undesirable home run rate (1.04). xFIP sees him as a 3.48 ERA pitcher going forward, which would profile pretty nicely in the #3 slot in the Yankee rotation. Oh, and as a bonus, he’s left-handed.
As far as stuff goes, Wandy’s the type of soft-tossing lefty (avg. fastball 88.9mph) that seems to stifle the Yankees so often, and backs it up with a slow curveball (75.9mph) and changeup. The curve is his bread-and-butter; in 2009 it was the most valuable wCB in the NL, ahead of even ‘s, and it’s been worth 50.6 runs above average during his career.
Of course, the usual caveats apply — by moving to the American League, presumably we’d have to penalize Wandy. According to this 2007 NY times article, pitchers moving from the NL to the AL between 2000-2005 saw their ERAs increase by an average of 0.70; however, the current diminished run environment would certainly make that number lower. Without getting too fancy, let’s say that a pitcher moving from the NL to the AL now would experience an ERA increase of 0.50, which is a number I’ve seen bandied about previously. So if we assume Wandy’s more of a 4.00 ERA pitcher in the AL, the gap between what he and what Burnett will give you has certainly shrunk. There’s also the matter of having Wandy on the books for two more seasons after this (plus 2014 club option) — although he’s only due $25.5 million in guaranteed money — and it may not make sense for the team to carry him through his age 34 season.
Hiroki Kuroda
Kuroda is literally one slot behind Wandy among the top 20 NL pitchers in fWAR from 2008-2010, and is having a very similar season (3.07/3.76/3.49), with a decent K/9 (6.98) backed up by a strong BB/9 and fair GB% (44.7%). Like Wandy, Kuroda’s also been victimized by the home run ball a fair amount, and regressing his home run rate to league average gives us a 3.49 ERA pitcher going forward, a.k.a. exactly what Wandy is expected to do.
Kuroda throws harder than Wandy (91.7mph avg. fastball velocity), and boasts a slider that was a top 10 pitch in the NL last season, curve and splitter.
Kuroda would likely cost less in a trade, given his impending free-agent status, although I’m not sure it would take that much to pry Wandy away from Houston. Rodriguez is good, but he’s definitely a second-tier starter who’s also on the wrong side of 30. Plugging Wandy’s Oliver-projected WARs for the remainder of this season and 2012 and 2013 into the Trade Value Calculator gives us a net value of $14.9 million. Going by Victor Wang’s Prospect Trade Value research, this would be roughly equivalent to a top 10 pitching prospect. Unfortunately for the Astros, the Yankees aren’t going to be trading Manny Banuelos for a 32-year-old starter. Maybe Nova + one of the Yankees’ lesser pitching prospects could get a deal done, but given Nova’s youth, team control, and the possibility that he may still grow into a better pitcher than he currently is may make a potential trade futile.
In working on this post I was hoping to spy another name on a non-contender that might make sense in a deal, but there aren’t many names that scream massive upgrade to me. As many have noted, there’s essentially no chance the Yankees will be able to impart an ace at the trade deadline, and it’s not clear whether any of the #2/#3-type starters that might be available will even represent an upgrade over what the team has in-house.
Of course, there’s also the question of whether the Yankees even need to trade for a starter, given that the rotation will of course be receiving in-house upgrades with the impending returns of both and . However, we all know you can never have too much pitching, and for as great as Bart has been, there are no guarantees that he’ll continue to pitch like a #2 starter. As for Phil, he’s even more of an unknown quantity at this point. Maybe he comes back and reverts to first-two-months-of-2010 form, or maybe he continues to function as a living, breathing punching bag.
That being said, even if both come back and pitch as well as they’re capable of doing, I don’t see any harm in importing a #2/#3-type starter like Wandy or Kuroda for the stretch run, provided that either can be had at a non-prohibitive cost. Let’s put it this way: If Colon comes back and continues to pitch like he’d been pitching, and the playoffs started today, the Yankee postseason rotation would be something like Sabathia/Colon/Burnett/Garcia or Hughes. How much better would you feel about the Yankees’ chances if they are able to slate Wandy or Kuroda in between Sabathia and Colon or Colon and Burnett?
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nice work larry, for some reason i seem to be a big kuroda fan. your right though the market for high quality arms is limited and im real curious to see what cash pulls off. also i was curious if there’s any relief arm u think thats worth targeting? soriano and feliciano will be the key offcourse to that question but 2 guys i like are mike adams and eric o’flaherty.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 10:01 am
I keep seeing Adams brought up but I can’t see him being traded. If they trade Bell they still need someone to close out games for them, and he is under contract next season for under 3 million dollars. If he isn’t too expensive, and he is still under control next season they have no reason to trade him.
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stunna4885 Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 10:05 am
another guy i like is mike wuertz
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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 10:12 am
I’m always wary when it comes to trading with the A’s. They very rarely get cheated on a deal, and often times come up with massive steals. They work pitchers hard and often, and dump them before they breakdown. Not saying I wouldn’t do it, but I’d look else where first.
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Minor point .. I think you mean that the ERAs will increase 0.50, not 0.05 (same with the 0.07 to 0.70).
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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 10:00 am
He also said he has a club option for 2010… Going back in time to pick up the club option wouldn’t be the worst thing haha. It’s early we’ll forgive him.
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Larry Koestler Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 10:03 am
Whoops, sorry fellas. Thanks for the heads-up; errors have been fixed. I must’ve briefly zoned out while writing that section.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 10:04 am
It’s cool Larry, you know we all love the work you and the rest of the guys do here!
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I read the other day that the Astros view Wandy as a top end of the rotation pitcher, and will want that kind of compensation in return. I think they are nuts if they think they are coming anywhere near that kind of compensation, but what do I know.
I don’t feel Wandy will translate well at all to the AL and especially the East, being such a tough division. I also wouldn’t be thrilled about carrying a pitcher like that through 34.
Kuroda is interesting at the right price but I don’t think he would be anything more than a 3 or 4 starter in the playoffs. So if the value lines up with that, there isn’t a whole lot of harm to it.
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The piece highlights the importance of seeing Colon and Hughes pitch again for the Yankees before the trade deadline. Clearly, if either or both can return successfully, the need to overpay for a mid-rotation started declines sharply.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 10:14 am
To some degree yes, but Even if they both come back and do well there is no guarantee with either one. Colon is still always a pull or strain from another Dl stint, and Hughes was awful last year in the playoffs with his velocity. At this point I think you have to operate with the assumption you can’t count on either one, more than one day at a time.
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I still think Francisco Liriano is the best and most interesting trade option available. He has upside that is on line with some of the best in the game, but he has enough question marks to come cheaper than Montero, or Banuelos. He probably wouldn’t cost Betances either in the right package. Since coming off the DL he has pitched much better, and with that behind him should be solid for this year at least. Going forward you will always have to worry about his health, but he is going to be team friendly enough contract wise it shouldn’t matter.
I was discussing this with Steve at one point in one of the game threads I believe and I came up with this offer. Nova, Romine, and Nunez for Liriano. I think it makes sense on several levels, the most obvious being that Mauer is obviously not going to be at catcher for long now, and they have no real SS of the future that I know of. Liriano would certainly slot no lower than 3rd in a playoff rotation, and if he pitched well enough down the stretch could even bump himself up to two. At that point you could potentially be looking at a rotation of Sabathia, Liriano, Burnett, and Colon. You might want to break the lefties up, but either way I think it is the absolute strongest rotation we can come up with for this year.
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Rich Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 11:03 am
Are you crazy. Nova is a kid with great upside who’s a #4 starter already, Ronmine’s hittng close to .300 with good defense and will be our catcher of the future(sorry Jesus) and Nunez is our next shortstop. All this for Liriano who’s had arm problems. Are you kidding—If I’m The Twins I’d do back flips after I made that trade!!
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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 11:14 am
Nova doesn’t have great upside. He has average upside and probably won’t advance all that much past what he is right now. He should get somewhat better but he is never going to be more than a 4/5. I also wouldn’t consider him a number 4 pitcher right now, he is a solid 5, but if the Yankees could upgrade above him and drop Freddy to 5 I guarantee they would.
His best pitch is an average fastball, and none of his pitches are swing and miss plus offerings. He also doesn’t offset that with astronomical ground ball rates like Wang did. None of this isn’t going to suddenly change. Yankees fans are wildly overrating what Nova could be one day.
If Nunez is our Short Stop of the future something will have gone wrong. He is a good young player, but I don’t see him having the skills of anything more than a league average SS. That’s valuable but it isn’t something you can’t find in other places.
Romine is a good young prospect, and he’s having a good season in AA but it’s just that, double A. I actually see JR Murphy or Gary Sanchez as the eventual catcher of the future. His defensive skills are there, but from everything I’ve read and seen he is still raw behind the plate. Far from being an excellent defensive backstop, though he may get to that point. I’m not sure I see him being a .300 hitting catcher at the big league level either. He’s only even done it once in the minor leagues, and that was in 2008 in A ball. He should have a decent bat, good even for catcher, but limited pop.
Nunez and Nova are the prime example of league average, neither will be bad, but neither are special. Romine has the most upside of the 3, but for an arm like Liriano’s I’m willing to take that risk with the depth we have at the position. Romine has eventual trade written all over him in my opinion.
There is risk on both sides of the trade, which is why it makes sense. You can’t get talent without giving up talent, but none of these prospects has the upside of Liriano. I don’t see any of them being a player that blows down doors, and besides Romine I don’t see them having the upside of anything much above league average.
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Rich Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 12:07 pm
I’m glad you’re not the GM
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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 12:11 pm
You could add to the conversation, but I see you have taken the road of insults instead. Thanks.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 12:37 pm
Am I really breaking news that Nova doesn’t have upside much above a good number 4 pitcher on a winning team, or that Nunez has decent tools but will never be the type of hitter that makes him more than league average?
Neither one is a blow away player with talent that suggests they will be top of their position. There is nothing wrong with being league average, it’s not an insult. Many, many players have made long careers of it.
With Nova it’s not my opinion that his best pitch is an average fastball, with a compliment of offspeed pitches that aren’t plus swing and miss offerings. That’s simply what he has. I would love for him to suddenly become more than that, but he has the stuff he has, and that doesn’t change wildly at his age. His control can improve, his pitch selection can improve, but his pitches are pretty much what they will be.
Nunez has a strong arm, nice speed, and good range, but he isn’t elite with the stick. He really doesn’t have to be to become a .260/12 HR/20 SB player, but I can’t see his upside being more than that and I’m far from alone in that belief.
Romine is the risk in the deal. He could really become a very good defensive catcher who hits .280-290 and hits close to 20 HRs a year, but that is his ceiling, not his floor. With the depth we have at that position, with bats projected to be better than his, I think the risk is worth it.
Liriano is a pitcher with ace upside. Yes he does have a history of arm problems in the form of Tommy John surgery, but his shoulder hasn’t been a problem. He’s young, left handed, under contract for multiple years to come, and he is only making 4.3 million dollars. Right now (healthy) he is better than Nova will ever be, I can’t see how anyone can argue that point.
Holding out hope that Nova will suddenly become Wang, or up his strikeout rate dramatically just isn’t realistic, and the fact that some fans (and Andrew Marchand) are trying to compare Nunez to Jose Reyes is laughable.
I am sorry you will never hire me to be your GM, but considering how many people don’t want Cashman to be our GM now, I don’t mind it that much.
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in all honesty if the giants were smart they would trade one of there starters for the bat that they deperately need. whats your opinion on jonathan sanchez?
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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 11:02 am
We don’t match up at all. We can’t deal them Montero since they already have Posey and Brandon Belt, and I wouldn’t deal Banuelos for Sanchez. His stuff is decent but he walks way too many batters, and I have read many Giants fans say he wouldn’t be the a good fit mentally with the Yankees.
I actually think Bumgarner has much higher potential than Sanchez, but I’m not super crazy about either. Also as I said we are a terrible matchup for the Giants.
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beckett is the only sure thing in the sox rotation this year, lester has been inconsistent all year and bucholtz is hurt(back problems never good) after that they have nothing. ill take cc,colon, burnett, nova, hughes and garcia all day long and twice on sundays.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 11:04 am
They have holes in their rotation no doubt, but as it stands the only pitcher on our staff I would take all day over theirs is CC. Lackey is their huge question mark, but even still with Lester, Beckett, and when Buccholz comes back they have the better rotation.
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The Dodgers’ bankruptcy fiasco might increase their incentive to trade Kuroda, which could lower the potential price.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 12:09 pm
I wonder how MLB trying to take over the team might affect things with the Dodgers trade deadline deals? On one the hand if MLB does takeover Selig would have final say on who could be traded, and on the other if this gets caught up in court until past the deadline they may not be able to move anyone. Weird situation all around.
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I wonder if perhaps the Cubs might be willing to part with Mat Garza. He isn’t my favorite pitcher in the world, and he has struggled this year with a 4.11 ERA (though his FIP 2.87 and xFIP 2.89 point to being unlucky). But he has AL East experience/success, and playoff experience/success which means he is someone you have to look at if available. He’s also only 27. The Cubs just traded for him so I don’t know if they would be looking to dump him, but at this point I think they are looking to move anyone they can.
I know he’s been covered by some of the guys already but Edwin Jackson can’t be overlooked. As far as cheap, middle of the rotation arms go, he is my favorite. Being as he is in the AL, and has a history with the AL East.
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I keep seeing the Yankees linked to Heath Bell but I can’t understand why. With the demand for relievers being what it is, and being the best closer on the market he is going to cost a shiny penny, even with only this season left on his contract. It simply makes no sense to trade for the guy, unless you absolutely believe you can recoup the prospects given up with the 2 draft picks we would get once he signs somewhere else.
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Eric Schultz Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 11:54 am
Agreed, I wouldn’t want to give up any significant prospects for Bell (none of Banuelos, Betances, Sanchez, Montero for sure), especially if Soriano can come back healthy and effective.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 12:06 pm
Is there any update on Soriano? I expect him to be fine going into next year, but I’m not sure what kind of health we can expect the rest of this year.
I really don’t see the need to trade for anyone of that nature. Everyone here knows I don’t see Robertson as our future closer but he’s fine as a setup man the rest of this season, and besides his one bad outing Hector Noesi has fit in quite well as a replacement for Robertson’s old role. A trade for a second lefty would help the pen out (since I don’t believe Feliciano or Marte will pitch this year) but going for a legit closer like that just doesn’t seem to fit the need we have. If a cheap right handed reliever was available you look into him obviously, but Bell is far from that.
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Yankees are better served to invest in another bat. While pitching wins titles, with pitchers dominating the game more it’s harder for the Yankees even with being 2nd in the league in runs scored to maintain consistency. They have shown to get shut down by the likes of Doug Davis, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Carrasco, Vin Mazzaro among many other average pitchers. Even the games when the Yankees win a good amount of them are like 4-2 where they don’t exactly tattoo the ball like they should. Unless the Yankees can get a Cliff Lee type pitcher, they are better off staying pat and using their prospects for their pitching staff.
Lets put it this way, lets say the Yankees play the Red Sox in the ALCS. Do you really like the Yankees chances of their hitters out hitting the Red Sox hitters? I know I don’t. I don’t think Mark Teixeira can out hit Adrian Gonzalez. I don’t think Jorge Posada will out hit David Ortiz. I don’t think Derek Jeter will be able to outplay Lowrie hitting only 179 with RISP. The big difference between the Yankees and Red Sox lineups are that the Red Sox are hitters who put mistakes into play for more hits whereas the Yankees lineup are blasters that foul back pitches that should be hammered for more hits. The Yankees are at a disadvantage, because they don’t capitalize enough with solid hitting rather than always blasting.
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I don’t care how bad we’d need a starter, I would not go near either Kuroda or Rodriguez. Kuroda is a fly ball pitcher in L.A. If he pitched in Yankee Stadium that homerun rate would go way up. As for Rodriguez, I have never been a fan of this guy. I think he is one of the more overated middle of the rotation starters in baseball. He doesn’t throw hard at all and would likely melt under the pressure of pitching in New York. He is nothing mre than another Javy Vasquez.
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I would feel more comfortable trading Montero than I would have at the start of the season. The Yankees have enough catching depth that Montero would be easy to replace with say Romine or Sanchez. I also can’t see Montero being more than just a DH. I think the DH slot should be preserved for aging players. Though I would not dare to think about trading manny. Manny is my favorite prospect and he shouldn’t head anywhere for a long time.
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