Splitting Hairs: A(nother) Granular Look at the Yankees’ Slump

(The following is being syndicated from The Captain’s Blog).

The longer the Yankees’ offensive malaise continues, the more it becomes confusing. Over a three-week period that has seen the team’s per game production plummet by almost two runs, no one explanation has been evident. Nonetheless, there must be something that stands out as a reasonable cause for the batting slump that most of the team is currently enduring.

After scanning the Yankees’ season splits in 2011, one number jumps out more than any other. In 30 plate appearances with a 3-0 count, the Yankees haven’t recorded a single hit. Of course, that statistics is misleading because the team has walked in 90% of those instances, or just a shade below the league average. So, when compared to the league’s performance on 3-0 (.366/.955/.761), it appears as if the Yankees have only missed out one or two hits. What’s more, the Yankees won all three games when those 3-0 outs occurred, so this split has played no role in the larger trend.

Yankees sOPS+ in Three-Ball Counts

Split	PA	AB	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	sOPS+
3-0 Count	30	3	0	0.000	0.900	0.000	-6
3-1 Count	87	44	3	0.386	0.686	0.682	99
Full Count	243	156	8	0.199	0.477	0.385	130
After 3-0	79	31	4	0.258	0.709	0.710	142
After 3-1	166	95	7	0.253	0.570	0.526	111
Three Balls	360	203	11	0.236	0.563	0.443	114

Note: sOPS+ is a measurement that compares the Yankees performance in a particular split to the league average.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Even after an awful weekend in which the Yankees struggled mightily on three ball counts, the team’s related OPS splits are at least on par with the rest of the league. So, although the inability to do damage on 3-1 did hurt the Yankees over the past weekend, it has not been a systemic problem.

With yet another theory dismissed, one more observation bears closer examination. A lot has been made of the Yankees’ scoring too many runs via the long ball, which is an inherently silly argument. However, is it possible that the team is trying too hard to go deep? Although this tendency is difficult to identify in the numbers, one manifestation might be a decline in off-field production at the expense of pulling the ball. In other words, instead of letting the homeruns come naturally, the Yankees may be forcing the issue.

wOBA Relative to Hit Placement, 2002-2011

Source: fangraphs.com

The Bronx Bombers have been very successful at pulling the ball so far this season, but the team’s hitters have fallen behind the league when it comes to going up the middle and using the opposite field. Over the first 38 games, the Yankees rank near the bottom of the majors with a wOBA of .255 on balls hit the other way and in the middle of the pack with a wOBA of .336 on balls hit to center. In terms of sOPS+, the team ranks below average in both categories.

sOPS+ Splits Based on Hit Placement

Split	PA	AB	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	sOPS+
Pulled-RHB	124	123	12	0.463	0.463	0.870	142
Up Mdle-RHB	248	244	7	0.250	0.246	0.365	76
Opp Fld-RHB	86	82	2	0.268	0.256	0.390	85
Pulled-LHB	181	176	29	0.409	0.407	0.972	153
Up Mdle-LHB	276	275	10	0.280	0.280	0.462	106
Opp Fld-LHB	100	97	0	0.247	0.240	0.351	62

Note: sOPS+ is a measurement that compares the Yankees performance in a particular split to the league average.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

So, if the Yankees have become too one dimension, who, in particular, is to blame. Unfortunately, the answer is the entire team. While ever regular but Derek Jeter is off the charts when it comes to pulling the ball, only Brett Gardner has a wOBA above .320 on balls to the opposite field. A handful of batters have also had success going up the middle, but for the most part, damage on offense has usually come from getting the bat head out early.

Yankees’ Offensive Breakdown, by Hit Location

	Pull		Center AB		Opposite
Player	AB	wOBA	AB	wOBA	AB	wOBA
Alex Rodriguez	43	0.452	29	0.335	26	0.32
Andruw Jones	12	0.608	9	0.298	5	0.179
Brett Gardner	27	0.394	30	0.348	29	0.353
Curtis Granderson	53	0.676	32	0.447	18	0.229
Derek Jeter	35	0.278	56	0.299	41	0.273
Eduardo Nunez	9	0.384	5	0.358	4	0.224
Eric Chavez	12	0.149	10	0.521	8	0.432
Francisco Cervelli	6	0.213	3	0.704	2	0.448
Gustavo Molina	2	0.640	4	0.000	0	NA
Jorge Posada	35	0.441	28	0.249	16	0.112
Mark Teixeira	58	0.527	27	0.329	21	0.265
Nick Swisher	40	0.349	23	0.289	35	0.242
Robinson Cano	50	0.573	36	0.401	32	0.198
Russell Martin	38	0.591	28	0.279	20	0.173

Source: fangraph.com

Is the root cause of the current struggles an inability to use all fields?  It’s worth noting that over the last 10 years, wOBA on balls hit to the opposite field does have a meaningful positive correlation to runs scored, while the same metric for the other two splits does not. Of course, correlation doesn’t always imply causation, but if the Yankees are going to continue to perform so poorly on balls served the other way, they’ll have no choice but to either pull the ball even more or compensate by being even more productive when they do.