(Photo c/o Getty Images)
The Yanks and O’s meet for the third time this season, though the teams have only been able to play four of the six games they were previously scheduled for, with the Yankees taking all four contests. Unfortunately there’s rain in the forecast once again, and it’s possible tonight’s game will be rained out by the time this post is published. However, we’ll go and preview the two teams anyway as they embark on a brief two- (or one-) game set.
You already know the story with the Yankees — 9-13 since they last played Baltimore, and scuffling in seemingly every which way possible before finally picking up a much-needed win last night. The Orioles are 11-9 over that same time period, though they are currently in last place in the American League East.
On the offensive side of things, the O’s have outdone the Yankees over the last 14 days, with a .329 team wOBA to the Yankees’ .323. Pitching has been a significantly different story, as the O’s starters have thrown to a 3.86 ERA/3.77 FIP/3.71 xFIP over the last two weeks, while Yankee starters have an ugly 4.58 ERA/5.44 FIP/4.29 xFIP line during that time. It’s been a slightly rosier picture for the Yankees on the relief end, with the bullpen putting up a 3.05 ERA/3.73 FIP/3.78 xFIP over the last 14 days, and the O’s relievers a 4.30 ERA/4.17 FIP/4.15 xFIP line.
In tonight’s game, the Yankees get their first-ever look at O’s wunderkind , who’s off to a sterling start in his rookie campaign, throwing up a 2.42 ERA/3.73 FIP/3.80 xFIP over 52 innings. Britton appears to be a disciple of the don’t-strike-anyone-out-but-get-a-million-ground-balls school of pitching (though Porcello has notably upped his K/9 this season), with a meager 5 K/9, but a superb 54% GB%. Though Britton’s been very good, he also appears to have been the beneficiary of a healthy dose of luck, with one of the larger negative deltas between his ERA and FIP in the league (-1.31, 7th-worst in the AL) to go with a miniscule .219 BABIP and insanely high 82.3% strand rate. Of course, given that groundballers anecdotally seem to post lower BABIPs and higher LOB%s due to the nature of limiting outs made in the air, it’s probably not fair to ascribe all of Britton’s success to luck — I’d love to see someone come out with a study showing that groundball pitchers have some degree of control over the BABIP and LOB% — but he’s still likely due for something of a correction.
Though it seems unlikely that Britton will continue to be a 2.42 ERA pitcher going forward, especially with such a low K/9 and as the league begins to make adjustments, unfortunately for the Yankees they’ve never seen him before. Considering that no-name guys the Yankees haven’t previously seen are one of the team’s death knells, I shudder to think how the Yankee offense will roll over and die against a highly touted lefty in Britton. If there’s any chink in Britton’s armor, it’s that he appears to have had slightly more trouble with lefties than righties, but of course there’s a far smaller sample of lefties in this particular data pool.
The Yankees will counter Britton with (3.66 ERA/4.36 FIP/3.23 xFIP), who was decent enough in his last outing against the Red Sox, and still has the best K/9 and BB/9 rates on the staff. Even if the Yankee offense does its usual scuffling-against-a-rookie thing, Colon should at least be able to keep it close against a not-terribly-impressive Oriole offense.
In Thursday night’s game, (3.47 ERA/3.06 FIP/3.49 xFIP) will look to get back on track after three middling (for him) starts. Sabathia hasn’t recorded a positive WPA score in a start since April 28 against the White Sox, and the Yankees really need a strong outing from their ace as they look to get back on the winning track. The O’s counter with (3.98 ERA/4.64 FIP/4.08 xFIP), who has actually been the least valuable member of the rotation by fWAR (0.3), but who seems to be capable of spinning a gem just as much as he might implode. The Yankees never seem to have a tremendous amount of trouble with Guthrie — who, though he isn’t walking anyone (1.56 BB/9) is also giving up a ton of home runs (1.56 HR/9, 4th-worst in the AL) — and the Yankees really need to take this game with their ace on the hill.
Here’s who’s hot coming into this series (per wOBA over the last two weeks):
Yankees
– .456
Orioles
– .427
– .422
– .387
– .379
– .371
Cold
Yankees
– .267
– .282
– .293
– .304
– .310
– .315
– .317
Orioles
– .193
– .243
– .270
Well, those are some scary numbers. More than half the Baltimore lineup has been raking, while seven of the Yankees’ nine regulars have hit below a .320 wOBA over the last 14 days. Not that you needed me to tell you the offense has been bad, but man has it been ugly when you take a closer look at it.
The smart money is on a split, but it’ll still be disappointing if the Yankees can’t sweep this mini two-game set, even with the specter of a Rookie-They’ve-Never-Seen-Before™ looming.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
Back to back games now Granderson has smoked a ball to first with nothing to show for it.
[Reply]
Wow!
[Reply]
It sorta looked like Rodriguez wasn’t thinking double out of the box.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 8:44 pm
He’s been complaining about problems with his hip, from the surgery side, so he may just look sluggish. I agree though, he didn’t look like he was in the gear you need to be in to turn for second.
[Reply]
All hail Bartolo Colon!
A fabulous game. Hope they don’t blow it.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 8:46 pm
If he keeps his velocity, and more importantly pitching well, he’s going to have everyone looking for stem cell surgery/injection.
[Reply]
Professor Longnose Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 8:54 pm
Yeah, he really looks good. It’s not luck.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:04 pm
Who’s saying it’s luck?
He’s been pitching with plus velocity and decent to plus control since he’s signed, can’t find luck in that, it’s just good pitching.
The only things that could derail Bartolo is if he loses his velocity, or he gets wild with that 2 seam. He thrives on called strike 3, and for that matter always has. He throws a lot of fastballs and needs to control it. His biggest problem when he left MLB was his velocity was dipping, and his control was regressing. But he looks like he is back in him prime almost.
[Reply]
Professor Longnose Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:23 pm
No one. I’m just reveling in it. Garcia is probably having some luck; I don’t think he can keep it up. But Colon is actually pitching very well.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:25 pm
Ah, I thought Lupica or someone may be up to old tricks haha. I hate that guy!
[Reply]
Professor Longnose Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:27 pm
Yeah, he’s the pits. Or was, last time I read anything he wrote, which was probably 20 years ago.
I don’t care how screwed you think you got at the plate, as a catcher you need to shut up. You don’t want your barking to end up shrinking your pitchers strike zone.
Bartolo is pitching like he has a pizza in the oven, and the home plate umps throwing down for some.
[Reply]
Not even close for Cervelli… really rushed that throw!
[Reply]
Cervelli was pumped on that K that ended the 8th. Colon got him off the hook for throwing the ball in CF.
[Reply]
my opinion , colon gets go finish this gem.. better or worse ,no way take him out
[Reply]
Matt Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:28 pm
I’m with you he deserves to finish the game
[Reply]
Professor Longnose Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:31 pm
Yeah, I’d probably let him finish.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:33 pm
If we had a 3-0 lead it’d be the right call to go with Colon, but 1-0 the game is on the line with every pitch and no pitcher does that better than Rivera. Plus you would want Mariano warmed up just in case Colon ran into trouble, and if you are going to have the safety net warmed up you might as well start the inning with him.
[Reply]
Professor Longnose Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:35 pm
It rubs me the wrong way to take out a guy who’s pitching so well.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:39 pm
That’s not what people say when AJ Burnett has one bad inning after cruising through 6 or 7. In fact they blame Girardi for “leaving him in too long” no matter how many pitches he had thrown, or how well he pitched.
The only starter we have I would leave in that situation would be Sabathia, other than that I go with Mo and never second guess the decision.
[Reply]
bornwithpinstripes Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:43 pm
aj melts fast..can not compare what colon did tonight to aj and his history to fall apart..come chris this is easy ..just say girardi blew it again..he was also right bringing mo last night right..concede once in a while
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:50 pm
He wasn’t wrong, just because you constantly live in hindsight doesn’t make you, or it right.
Bartolo Colon is more unproven than AJ Burnett at this point, you act like Bartolo is an ace. He pitched well tonight sure, but you are saying that the Orioles couldn’t do to Colon (the 4th time through the lineup) what they did to Mariano. Colon is clearly not better than Mariano.
Anyone who second guesses bringing in Mariano in the 9th in a 1 run game can’t be pleased by any decision a manager makes.
I didn’t say he was right or wrong bringing in Mariano last night but it wasn’t this huge disaster you want it to be. Mariano had already warmed up, that means he had already thrown plenty of pitches at full speed. So in essence he already pitched that night, putting him was just a formality at that point.
So many people want live in this world where pitches thrown in the bullpen simply don’t count. There is a reason teams don’t like to warm up their closer and then not pitch him.
Professor Longnose Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:57 pm
Colon didn’t have a bad inning. 8 innings, three hits, 1 walk, 7 Ks.
Burnett is known for suddenly blowing up. When he does, I would think it’s a good idea to get him out of there before he blows a lead.
The bigger question this gets at is “How good is a good day?” When you’re making a decision to send a guy out to the mound for the next inning, what’s the most important information, what he’s done that day, or what he’s done that year, or what he’s done the last 5 years.
I don’t have an answer, but I suspect that what he’s doing that day is given less importance in baseball generally than it should be. I wish Bill James would do a study, but I don’t know of one.
In this particular case, Rivera blows about 10% of his saves, pretty regularly year in and year out. Figure that’s a little lower for one-run save opportunities. So say you’ve got an 80% to 85% chance of Rivera getting the save. What are the odds of Colon finishing off the shutout? I have no idea. And no one else does, either. I bet if you counted the 9th innings of guys who threw 8 shutout innings, they’d be very good, but it’s a biased sample, because they usually don’t let anyone except aces go 9.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 10:09 pm
I say in that particular situation you have to go with the pitcher who you are the most comfortable with overall, and to me there is no way that can be Colon over Mariano. So for me I go Rivera, but even if you wanted to send out Colon for the 9th I can’t see second guessing Rivera just because he blew the lead.
If he’s sending out Joba or Robertson you second guess away, but Mariano is the greatest of all time at just this type of thing. As I said, I live and die with Mo over Colon.
bornwithpinstripes Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 10:46 pm
chris not hindsight.. i said it after he finished the eighth..before the yanks got up in the ninth.. you were wrong the other night and you and girardi are wrong again tonight like so many other nights chris..it is ok we all can be wrong at times..we lost and you still sat is right and it was right leaving aj in last year vs that tubby catcher
Professor Longnose Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 10:18 pm
That’s just a feeling you have–you’re impressed, emotionally, with Rivera’s career. I happen to be impressed, emotionally, with 8 shutout innings. Neither of those feelings proves much of anything.
To me, it’s frustrating that baseball has simply ceased to wonder whether the formula it is using is a winning strategy or not.I wish more people were more opened minded about it.
(And I didn’t second guess Rivera because he blew the save. I thought Colon should have been allowed to start the 9th, and I said so at the time.)
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 10:27 pm
I’m actually not using emotions, I’m going with facts, and those facts say that Rivera has an ERA of 1.42, an FIP of 1.71, and an xFIP of 2.87 this year. He hasn’t lost some big step, and he is far from being washed up as a closer. In fact he is striking out more than last season and walking less.
When it comes to one inning saves Mariano is the greatest of all time, bar none, so I am going to let him do his job.
I never said that you said you were second guessing putting Mariano in, but at least one person clearly is. I was simply adding that even if you wanted Colon in that situation it would be silly to second guess Mariano Rivera.
bornwithpinstripes Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 10:47 pm
yes you did along with matt
Professor Longnose Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 10:52 pm
Again, those numbers are consistent with blowing a one-run save 20% or so of the time, and we don’t know if Colon would have had a better chance.
[Reply]
Just what does Cervelli bring to the table? He’s not a plus defender and he can’t hit.
How much worse defensively must Montero be that his bat can’t make up the difference?
[Reply]
Professor Longnose Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:37 pm
Last year what he brought to the table was that he wasn’t Posada.
[Reply]
bornwithpinstripes Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:47 pm
your right, any body is an upgrade..but we have a bat down on the farm
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:42 pm
It’s really not about Montero being worse, it’s about Montero getting everyday at bats, and playing behind the plate every game.
If you called up Jesus he would at max get DH duty against lefties and 1 day catching a week, that’s simply not enough playing time.
People want to act like Montero has nothing left to learn in Scranton, but the truth is he is only 21 years old and is having career worsts in walks, K’s, SLG, wOBA, and ISO power.
[Reply]
bornwithpinstripes Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:45 pm
old pep.. how does anyone not see it that way.. he brings zero..when you can carry him ok..but when almost everyone is slumping.. boy.. but that is just our opinions
[Reply]
I’m taking Colon out here if it’s me. He did a great job but he isn’t use to going to and over the 100 pitch mark this season, he didn’t pitch last year, and we have the best closer in baseball history for situations just like this.
No reason to have Mariano up and throwing in case Colon gets in a jam, just let him feel great about 8 instead of questioning the 9th.
[Reply]
Matt Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:28 pm
and your correct looks like Mo is coming in
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:31 pm
No offense to Colon but I’d much rather live and die with Mariano.
[Reply]
“Yeah, he’s the pits. Or was, last time I read anything he wrote, which was probably 20 years ago.”
Daryl Strawberry has a pretty funny incident he writes about with Lupica in his autobiography. Needless to say, players hate him pretty badly as well.
[Reply]
Professor Longnose Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:32 pm
Funny, I just happen to be reading that book. The one he wrote with Art Rust, right? I’m only a few chapters in.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:38 pm
No the newer one “Straw” written with John Straubaugh.
[Reply]
Hindsight is 20-20, but Colon was at 87 pitches. Just sayin’.
Now we run into the ‘not enough good BP arms’ situation.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:44 pm
Can’t second guess that move. He went to Mariano Rivera, I imagine there will be many TV managers on this one but Mariano was the right call.
[Reply]
bornwithpinstripes Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:50 pm
we called it ahead not after..old pep.. the guy threw 97mph..
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:51 pm
You actually called Mariano blowing that save? Too bad you didn’t actually type it, must have been real confident in that one.
[Reply]
oldpep Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 9:56 pm
I think the call was leaving Colon out there.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 10:04 pm
The call would be leaving Colon out there, but “we called it” very much sounds like he is rolling the the blown save with leaving Colon out there.
[Reply]
bornwithpinstripes Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 10:50 pm
i did not say chris he was going to blow the save..i said he should finish his gem 87 pitches, how many does he have to have 60 pitches to go 9 ??97mph..in the eighth..
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 10:51 pm
I don’t equate velocity to success directly, it helps but it doesn’t mean much in the long run.
[Reply]
I disagree. It has nothing to do with being a ‘TV manager’ (nice pejorative there-subtle). It has to do with Colon being dominant and at only 87 pitches.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 10:02 pm
If you think TV manager is belittling then you care way too much about what people say on the internet, they have a TV show called arm chair QB for a reason. It’s part of American vernacular.
So we automatically treat Bartolo Colon like CC Sabathia now? I understand people love what he is doing this year, but I don’t agree that he is suddenly this unquestioned starter.
87 pitches wouldn’t be anything to Sabathia but Colon has pitched over that amount 4 times this year, which in turn means he has done it 4 times since 2009.
89 pitches in Toronto
99 pitches against the White Sox
97 pitches in Detorit
103 against Boston in 6 innings
He would clearly go over 90 pitches trying to get the out, and if he had 1 base runner allowed they would have had no choice but to go to Mariano. In that situation, with a 1 run lead you simply go to Mariano anyway. It didn’t work this time but I can’t see questioning the formula used for 15 years now of going to Mariano.
If that’s the way you see it fine, but I won’t agree with that one.
[Reply]
If I called up Montero, he’d either be catching or DHing. He’d be playing a lot more than 2-3 times a week.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 10:06 pm
I can’t imagine they would take away Posada’s job now, if that was the road they were planning on going down then they should have just cut Jorge. I agree if I was going to call up Montero that would be my plan as well, but I can’t see them just sitting Posada for Montero now.
If he was pissed about batting 9th what would he do if he was taken out of the lineup for good.
[Reply]
[...] more from the original source: Game Thread and Series Preview | Yankees vs. Orioles III: I can't … AKPC_IDS += "17825,"; AKPC_IDS += [...]
I would also never “just say girardi blew it again” directly because he went to Mariano Rivera, in the 9th, with a 1-0 lead. I honestly couldn’t even say it with a straight face.
[Reply]
Professor Longnose Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 10:23 pm
I agree. There’s the possibility that he lowered somewhat the chance of winning, but it’s only a possibility–we don’t know if he lowered or raised it.
The argument over the 90th inning has obscured the reason the Yankees haven’t won this game–they aren’t hitting.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 10:30 pm
God please don’t let this game reach a 90th inning!!!!! haha
You hit it on the head professor, Colon shouldn’t have to pitch a CG shutout in order to get a win. He wasn’t brought in with the idea he would ever have to pitch a CG, let alone do it to win 1-0.
[Reply]
They got out of it. Holy bloody hell!
[Reply]
“To me, it’s frustrating that baseball has simply ceased to wonder whether the formula it is using is a winning strategy or not.I wish more people were more opened minded about it.”
Being open minded about how you use your bullpen is fine with me, and I’m not saying that no matter who my closer is I’m bringing them in for that situation. But when I have Mariano Rivera, still pitching like Mariano Rivera in my bullpen I can’t justify not bringing him in.
Now if I have Kevin Gregg as my closer I definitely leave in Colon, but Rivera is a different breed. I have gotten to the point with Mariano that when he blows a save I just tip my cap.
[Reply]
I can’t take this anymore. I’m going to go to bed and put the radio on. With luck, I’ll fall asleep before they blow it.
…Oh, jeez, Granderson opened the 13th with a single. I’ll watch another batter.
[Reply]
“chris not hindsight.. i said it after he finished the eighth..before the yanks got up in the ninth.. you were wrong the other night and you and girardi are wrong again tonight like so many other nights chris..it is ok we all can be wrong at times..we lost and you still sat is right and it was right leaving aj in last year vs that tubby catcher”
You do realize you can make the right move and it still not workout right? Just because Mariano blows a save doesn’t mean it wasn’t the right move to go to Mariano.
I guess you live in the world where making the right move always works out, but in reality even the best laid plans go wrong.
The biggest flaw in your whole thought process is that you guaranteed Colon shutting down the top of the order, the 4th time through the lineup. If anything they would be more prepared for what Colon was going to do than they were for Mo.
In fact if I could re-do it I still would send in Mariano, because he is the better pitcher and much more trust worthy with the 9th than Colon.
I have no idea what you are talking about with “tubby catcher”…
[Reply]
A single for Teixeira! Woo-hooooo!
[Reply]
Looked low to me.
God why can’t they just change the rule to throwing 1 pitch for the IBB, you just make signal, throw once outside and they walk to first. How hard would that be?
[Reply]
Professor Longnose Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 11:05 pm
That would have ruined the 1972 World Series.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 11:06 pm
Except they were already at a 3-2 count and never actually threw a pitch out to walk him, so I don’t see how that couldn’t still happen.
[Reply]
Get the run in, Dickerson!
[Reply]
That’s it. Good night, folks.
[Reply]
Noesi has shown a lot of poise, I don’t know if I’d want him being a starter for my team but I’ll take him out of the pen anytime.
[Reply]
Robot umps now.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
May 18th, 2011 at 11:45 pm
Who the hell closes? Noesi has already thrown 55 pitches in 3 innings. Who’s left in the pen?
[Reply]
ROBINSON CANO!!!!!!!!!!
[Reply]
finally!
[Reply]
bornwithpinstripes Reply:
May 19th, 2011 at 12:08 am
hugh win.. sox, rays win.. we need to fix the bench
[Reply]