For reasons that no one has really been able to explain, has continued to look completely lost at the plate now for over a month. Last week I thought I saw some signs that he might be snapping out of it, but after putting up a .200/.259/.360 line this past week (compared with .231/.286/.231 the week before) things don’t seem to be getting any better for Alex.
So what on earth is wrong with the man who tore through the AL for his first 15 games to the tune of a .354/.492/.792 line but has since hit .183/.227/.239 over his last 18 and has essentially felt like an automatic out every time he steps up to the plate? Many have cited the oblique issue that kept him out of the lineup for a few games as a turning point, and the numbers would appear to back that up, but if A-Rod truly is playing through an injury, however minor, and isn’t at 100%, that is a huge problem as he has been almost worthless to the team (Alex has been worth 0.1 fWAR over his last 30 days).
Here is his batted ball data from the last 7 days (c/o Fangraphs):
I’ve highlighted in red the numbers I think are most worth noting. As you can see, his 2011 LD% is considerably off his career mark, as is his HR/FB%. The good news is the low HR/FB% should correct itself, as A-Rod dealt with a very similar situation a year ago and ultimately ended his 2010 season with a 17.1% — not great, and that was still a career-low, but with a career rate higher than 20% it’s highly unlikely that A-Rod’s fly balls continue to only clear the fence at a mere 13% clip.
For a visual look at where A-Rod’s been putting the ball, here’s his spray chart since April 25, courtesy of TexasLeaguers.com:
Those four pop-outs in foul territory are awful, though I suppose if one wanted to one could take it as an encouraging sign that the majority of his outs to the outfield have been hit to the opposite field.
Here are his last three weeks’ worth of plate discipline and pitch-type data:
After showing improved plate discipline numbers the week prior to this one, Alex’s patience and swing seemed to evaporate again, as he increased his Z-Swing% but only made contact with 80.1% of the pitches in the zone he swung at, compared with 93% the week prior, 86.8% on the season and 83.3% for his career. This also contributed to an overall Contact% of 72.1%, compared with 78.8% on the 2011 season and 75.7% on his career. And after cutting his SwStr% down to 6.3% the week before this one, he whiffed on 13.0% of the pitches he saw this past week, compared to 9.0% on the season and 10.5% on his career.
With regards to the pitch types he faced this past week, Alex saw a considerable drop in fastballs compared to the previous week (51.6% compared to 62.2%) and a major increase in sliders (which he saw once every four pitches). He also saw an uptick in cutters. Believe it or not, he’s still the Yankees’ second-best fastball hitter (6.1 runs above average; with leading the team and ranking 3rd in all of baseball at 13.2) but has negative run values against the slider (-1.4, second-worst on the team, behind Granderson), cutter (-1.5, second-worst on the team, once again behind Granderson) and changeup (-2.3, worst on the team). Interesting to see that Granderson has arguably struggled against sliders and cutters even moreso than Alex but has still managed to put together an MVP-caliber campaign thus far.
Given Alex’s troubles with some of these pitches, let’s take a look at where he’s being pitched since April 25:
He’s swung at at least 5 changeups out of the zone, and more alarmingly, nine curveballs. He’s also swung at six out-of-the-zone sliders. I don’t know if occasionally swinging at low stuff is par for the course for Alex over his career, but he appears to be hacking at a fair amount of pitches below the zone that he just can’t get to.
He’s also swung at quite a few heaters on the inner half of the plate and has been seduced by the high fastball eight times. I’d love to see a replay on the four-seamer Alex swung at located at -3 feet horizontal and 3 feet vertical.
I always want my baseball players to be patient and wait for their pitch, but in Alex’s case he may be letting a few too many hittable pitches get by. I count roughly 13 four-seamers in either the middle or outer half of the plate; locations where Alex should generally be able to do quite a bit of damage.
As noted in my first post in this series, Alex continues to be pitched primarily high and inside and low and away.
The other thing I’ve been wondering about A-Rod’s slump is whether he’s been getting himself out. Anecdotally it seems like Alex — along with seemingly all of his teammates — has been getting himself into a fair number of good hitters’ counts and yet still hasn’t been able to come through.
Fortunately we can try to find out whether there’s any truth to that sentiment via Baseball-Reference’s splits page. If Fangraphs ever adds Plate Discipline and Pitch Types by count, RISP and Men On, I’d be able to delve even more granularly into this analysis, but we’ll have to make due with what we’ve got.
The below table takes a look at some of Alex’s key batting splits and also compares them to his OPS in all situations (tOPS+; where better than 100 means the batter did better in a given split than usual and vice versa) and compared to the league OPS for that split (sOPS+, where better than 100 means the batter did better than the league and vice versa).
Once again I’ve highlighted the trouble spots in red. One thing that immediately stands out is that Alex’s struggles against lefthanded pitching, which I delved into over the offseason, have not gone away. It is quite baffling that a hitter of his caliber who has historically destroyed lefthanded pitching (.392 career wOBA) would struggle so mightily with what should be a favorable split for a righthanded batter.
Somewhat unexpectedly, the numbers don’t quite bear out my theory that A-Rod has been struggling to get the job done in hitters’ counts; although what they do show is that Alex has been a near-black hole once the pitcher gets ahead (a paltry 8 sOPS+ in those situations). Oddly, Alex also has been pretty terrible once the count runs full (48 sOPS+; 29 tOPS+), and also after running the count to 3-0 (73 sOPS+; a comical 7 tOPS+). I suppose these struggles with full counts and “After 3-0″ are partially responsible for why it feels like Alex hasn’t been getting it done when he gets ahead.
All told, this paints a pretty disheartening picture. I’m no hitting coach, so I have no idea what the answer is for Alex. His pitch recognition skills still don’t appear to have come back, and he does seem, to a certain extent, to be getting himself out in favorable hitters’ counts.
While this certainly isn’t the first time we’ve seen Alex slump as a Yankee, it’s a bit disconcerting given that he had a similar stretch of futility last season, and it’s not as if he’s getting any younger. I still believe Alex is talented enough to pull out of it, but he’s pretty clearly trying to do too much and must exhibit a greater degree of patience. I can live with making outs if a pitcher has legitimately beaten a given player, but getting yourself out due to an overeagerness to correct oneself and swinging at bad pitches in hitters’ counts is rather infuriating.
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Here’s the most important statistic:
36 years old July 27th and not getting younger or better.
Solution:
Trade him to Seattle for prospects moreover to dump his salary in the offseason and sign Mark DeRosa or some other veteran to play 3B and bat ninth. Or they could go in-house with Nunez.
Let A-Rod break the homerun record in a Mariners uniform. So what if he never wins a World Series ring with them? He got a World Series ring with the Yankees and might get another one if the 2011 Yankees win it all this year. Maybe he wins one with Seattle. 2012-17 is a long time.
His breaking the record would have two asterisks: he cheated 2001-2003 and he will most likely be a full-time DH 2014-17. Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, A-Rod’s former retired teammate Ken Griffey Jr. played most of their careers on the field.
I could see A-Rod agreeing to this trade because he got his ring out of the Yanks and I doubt he’d want to stay where he isn’t wanted.
The Yankees should consider the cash they’d have to kick in to unload his contract a buyout.
[Reply]
Mike Jaggers-Radolf Reply:
May 16th, 2011 at 1:52 pm
Why in the world would Seattle agree to that trade?
Even if ARod were still putting up a .400 wOBA, he is absolutely untradeable, unless the Yankees agree to eat about $20 million of his annual salary, or more. Seattle would have to be crazy to agree to any trade without such a provision, nevermind the fact that the Yankees don’t want to deal with Seattle anymore after the Cliff Lee fiasco.
The Yankees are stuck with ARod, for better or for worse. We can only hope that he remains talented enough a hitter to right the ship fairly soon.
[Reply]
Cris Pengiuci Reply:
May 16th, 2011 at 3:26 pm
No trade clause? Why would ARod go? This proposed trade makes no sense on so many levels.
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
May 16th, 2011 at 5:55 pm
arod has not been the same since his injury..he must be playing hurt..last night he did not get down on that ball..he will hit if he can get rest..tonight is at a park he loves to hit in..if after these two games he is still not hitting, give him a three or four game rest.
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Btw, Ichiro Suzuki’s in his walk year next year, so if he signs elsewhere after 2012, that’s $17M off the books and the team’s main draw gone.
Enter A-Rod, who (I think) would play pressure-free. Again, he got his ring and no one could ever say the Mariners didn’t win it all with him cuz of him. The Mariners could always restructure his contract so he’s paid with interest loooong after he retires a la the Reds did with Griffey Jr. and the Mets did with Bobby Bonilla to a lesser extent. Are the Mets still paying Bonilla? LOL!
Seriously, who the hell is in that Mariners’ lineup besides Ichiro who will stick long-term? What if Ichiro got hurt in his next game, was out for the rest of this season, turned out a 2010 Jeter-like 2012, and was let go, or he decided time to go somewhere where he could win it all?
[Reply]
Cris Pengiuci Reply:
May 16th, 2011 at 3:28 pm
Ichiro is NOT going anywhere. He’s nearly a god in Seattle. Seattle can afford him and won’t let him go either.
[Reply]
bornwithpinstripes Reply:
May 16th, 2011 at 5:56 pm
without a doubt..
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Why does everyone love Mark DeRosa? He is a mediocre baseball player incarnate.
[Reply]
Reply:
May 16th, 2011 at 3:23 pm
I’d be careful attributing the sentiments of Duh, Innings! to “everyone.”
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
May 16th, 2011 at 5:57 pm
he was mediocre, now he is done. never would i have him play third.
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Sexy Alex needs many basic things to relax and succeed such as a good neck massage, lots of quality sex and gourmet cuisine, all made by me:0)…
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I forgot to mention a nice hot bath every night and a warm back massage hmmm… I will also be responsible for doing all that:0)…I so wish…LOL
[Reply]
[...] spent the last month or so analyzing Alex Rodriguez on a week-by-week basis as he suffered through one of his more painful slumps in recent memory. While it’s possible [...]