Pardon the vague literary reference (bonus points if you can guess the book; hint: I’m currently grading a metric ton of papers about it).
Though he will turn only 25 in June, it feels like has been a Yankee forever. Drafted in 2004, he made his Major League debut in 2007 and his Major League career has essentially been a roller coaster since. Let’s start, as most stories do, at the beginning.
I don’t remember it when the Yankees drafted . At all. It was June 2004, so I was just wrapping up my junior year of high school. I cared about the Yankees, but knew nothing about the minor league system, except for what I read in the MiL section of the programs I bought when I went to games in the Bronx. But during my senior year of high school and freshman/sophomore years of college, I dug more into the Internet and started to hear the “echoing footsteps” (hint again!) of this guy named “Hughes” (and some dudes named “Kennedy” and “Chamberlain” shortly thereafter).
Suddenly, I just knew this guy was the next big thing for the Yankees. I knew this wasProxy-Connection: keep-alive
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he guy who was going to head up the rotation for my formative Yankee fan years. Looking at the numbers from 2005 and 2006 I was in awe at what Hughes did to the South Atlantic League, the Florida State League, and the Eastern League. We were all sucked up in this dominance. Finally, the Yankees were going to have another homegrown pitcher in the rotation in the near future.
2007 saw Hughes make his Major League debut, get injured during a no hitter attempt, and pitch in a game that was/is part of history. All told, 2007 saw Hughes toss 72.2 league average innings (4.46 ERA, 102 ERA+) with a respectable (4.35 FIP), and good (1.280 WHIP, 7.2 K/9) and passing (3.6 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9) peripherals. We were pumped. We were elated. There was nothing left for Hughes to do in the minors and in 2008, he would start his ascent (ascension?) to starting pitching stardom.
The 2007-2008 offseason saw Hughes as a piece of trade bait and there was a constant threat, until the Mets fixed the problem, that Hughes would be traded as part of a package to the Minnesota Twins for . Brian Cashman and Company showed incredible faith and patience in Hughes (and the foresight to go after for just money the next offseason) and refused to deal him for the game’s best pitcher at the time. We were all high on Hughes.
Then, 2008 happened. Hughes was ineffective and injured and pitched only eight games during the season. Five of his first six starts (all April) were terrible; start number one was the exception. Phil also made two September starts that were solid at the least. For the first time in his career, we saw Hughes fail. The luster wore just a little bit; the halo of St. Phil dimmed slightly. We–finally–tempered our expectations for Hughes.
In 2009, we saw Phil rejoin the Yankee rotation after starting the year in the minors. We were disappointed when he had to join the bullpen upon Chien Ming Wang’s return to the team after was hit by a line drive, but we were happy with the results Hughes turned in while he was handing the ball to in the late innings.
After he won the fifth starter’s job in the during Spring Training 2010, he came out of the gate blasting. From , Hughes pitched nearly 70 innings of 2.71 ERA ball and held opponents to an OPS under .600. From , he pitched to a 5.51 ERA and opponents OPS’d nearly .800 off of him. We were annoyed with the inconsistency, but it was normal. He was an early 20′s pitcher in his first full season as a starter in the sport’s toughest division. There were improvements to be made—the development of a changeup, better mixing of pitches–but we were confident that he could make them.
Now, after two starts in 2011, some are starting to seriously doubt Hughes and wonder what’s wrong with him and how much longer the Yankees will be able to keep running him out there every five days before they take him out. We, as Yankee fans, tend to be a very “gut reaction” group. I’ve tried to get better at that and if you’re reading this, chances are you are, too. TYA is pretty dedicated to acting logical and rational in our analysis of the Yankees rather than visceral. With this situation, though, it’s hard not to have a somewhat emotional reaction. For better or worse, we’ve all worshiped at the altar of for a while now. Hell, we anointed him “the Phranchise.” In our defense, though, he gave us good reason. So when we see him struggle, it forces us to ask questions not only about him, but about ourselves. Did we buy in too early? Did we buy in too hard? After our love-affair with this pitcher, we can’t help but just react when he does badly. Couple that with the fact that we expect constant results from the Yankees on the field and you’ve got a volatile mixture: a pitcher performing below what we expect AND it’s hurting the team. It sucks. We all want a quick fix, and any team’s fanbase would.
Certainly, I can see the logic behind the emotional reaction that has led to the (somewhat vocal) calls for Hughes to be removed from the rotation. He’s got no velocity, he’s got no location, and he’s not fooling anyone; he’s had only three swings-and-misses in his two starts this year (glove slap to Craig Calcaterra for that one). Still, I think it would be more logical for us to wait at least two more starts on Hughes. Why? Well, even with two starts that were just awful, it’s still just two starts. For all we know, he could crush it in his next five starts and make us forget about the first two. I’m also keeping my faith in Hughes’ talent. That may be dangerous, but I think it’s worth the risk.
We’ve seemingly been everywhere we could with Hughes in the last seven calender years. We’ve ridden high on his prospect status and we’ve drooled over his potential. We’ve sweetened and soured on his actual results…and his potential again. The question is, where are we going with Hughes? I haven’t the slightest clue.
If I said right now that I wasn’t even a little low on Hughes, I’d be lying to you and I’d prefer not to do that. I think there are considerable issues that still need to be addressed (again, the extra pitches he needs, the mixing of those pitches, the putting away of hitters, now the velocity) and I know I’m not alone in that sentiment. My faith in Phil’s talent, though, outweighs those concerns for the time being. As it always is with baseball, though, that balance could be tipped very easily over the course of the 2011 season.
We are at a crossroads with and a path is most definitely diverging in a pinstriped wood. The road to this point hasn’t been without its rocks, cracks, potholes, and detours and the road ahead will have the same problems; of that, I am most definitely sure. The question remains, though, will it be the road many have taken, upon which the majority has fallen? Or will it be the road less traveled? Either way, we’re in for a hell of a ride on the back of number 65.
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Great post. I’m fairly calm about Hughes right now. If he gets into May looking like this, I’ll start to panic a bit.
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What I am most concerned at this point is not the disastrous starts as much as the loss in velocity. According to Fangraphs his fastball velocity has dropped from 92.6 to 89.3 mph. There is obviously a problem whether that is mechanical, arm strength, or injury there is something wrong. Hughes deserves at least two more starts to show improvement on his pitches. If Hughes shows no improvement the Yankees will have no choice but to send him to AAA or the DL.
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Excellent post and I think the quick summation of Hughes’ career is especially good because I think Phil really does have to show if he can live up to our lofty expectations. As someone who has followed Hughes’ career since he was drafted it was hard not to expect the world of Phil as he dominated the minors and while showing glimpses of dominance there are some serious questions about where his career will ultimately lead to and what can we realistically expect from him going forward. Of course, he is still very young and in truth I think his big increase of innings has to play an important part of his struggles thus far, but given his pedigree and the expectations of Yankee fandom you have to wonder if maybe we were all a little overly optimistic about his ceiling.
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taking a guess at the book- The Tempest?
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“A Tale of Two Cities” by Charles Dickens?
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If the Yankees send Hughes back to AAA or put him on the DL, his trade value would plummet, so they can’t AAA or DL him.
The Yankees should do this:
Trade Hughes to Minnesota for Liriano straight up. Minnesota would make the trade.
Trade midlevel prospects to the Dodgers for Derek Lowe.
Minnesota and the Dodgers would clear a ton of salary very few teams besides the Yankees would take on much less could take on.
Send Nova back to AAA for further development.
Sabathia/Lowe/Liriano/Burnett/Garcia
The front four are the 2011 A.L.D.S. rotation and front four for the 2012 Yankees rotation where Nova, Betances, Banuelos, Brackman, and whoever else battle for the fifth starter job in spring training. Lowe and Liriano would be in their walk year thus auditioning for new contracts next year.
If Garcia pitches so badly he has to be taken out of the rotation and possibly released because no way is he accepting a minor-league assignment, I’d bring back Nova for one more try and if he’s good, the 2012 rotation is set where basically the fifth starter job is his to lose i.e. I tell him he’s the fifth starter in spring training and if he’s good enough to be that there, he’ll be the fifth starter for the 2012 Yankees. If that isn’t motivation to make it work for him, he’s the next one to go next year.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
April 11th, 2011 at 12:55 pm
The Twins would not make that trade, and Lowe is on the Braves, not the Dodgers.
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Duh, Innings! Reply:
April 11th, 2011 at 3:45 pm
You work for the Twins? How do you know? Hughes is already a MLB pitcher unlike Betances, Banuelos, and Brackman. Keep dreaming if you think the Yankees are giving up any two of of those or one of those and Nova for Liriano moreoever the Twins would taken unproven talent not ready for MLB yet for a proven starter. If the Twins won’t take Hughes, the Yankees could tell them well that’s all we’re giving up and easily get Lowe that day then try for someone else out there like Gavin Floyd. And time Cashman texts Pettitte with a little more than what’s up?
The Twins have / want to shed Liriano’s salary. Name me a team who could take it on AND give them a nice bounty then tell me the package whoever would give up for him. Until then your pronouncement without “Why?” is meaningless. Hughes just won 18 games last year, makes very little, will continue to make very little (or least that relative to Liriano), is under control contract-wise, and is 25. His cost allows the Twins to sign another starter or big bat.
‘Don’t care what team Lowe pitches for, there have been reports he’s available to anyone willing to take on his remaining salary including a whopping $15M for next year. The Yankees would be a prime suitor and they wouldn’t have to give up any top prospects to get him.
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Moshe Mandel Reply:
April 11th, 2011 at 4:17 pm
Why? Because he is better than Hughes and only has one more year of service time, so it doesn’t save the Twins nearly enough.
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You are the weiner.
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henry frisch Reply:
April 11th, 2011 at 1:08 pm
A High wind in Jamaica by Richard Hughes
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[...] The Track of the Hughes Storm | New York Yankees blog, Yankees … AKPC_IDS += "13399,"; AKPC_IDS += [...]
I will not hold 2008 against Phil because he was injured………..He suffered two severe injuries in two years, back to back; I’m sure that’s hurt him. That said, they weren’t arm injuries. What I know is this: except for a few starts last year where teams had not scouted him, Phil hasn’t shown any real flashes of the kid that was talked about like some super stud. All I’ve heard about was that he had great command and great stuff. Well, where are either of these? His stuff is ok, but lots of pitchers have better stuff. His command is ok, nothing special.
The reason I am down on him is because I feel that Phil has not committed in any way to his breaking pitches, that he loves his FB and cutter too much. He used to have a very good curve, though he himself described it as hot and cold. Now? I knew after ST last year that he’d given up on it. I mean, he called his change his 3rd best pitch. The curve is absolutely vital to Phil – he has a much better chance of having a very good curve and a decent change than a very good change and very good curve. Point is, he’s got a reliever’s mentality. He makes mistakes at the wrong time and gives up an inordinate # of HRs, even to very weak hitters. He’s not a bad pitcher by any means, but I feel that he’s at the very best a middle of the rotation pitcher. That’s on him, not the Yankees. I feel that in general a player’s development into what he eventually becomes is on HIM, not the organization. Perhaps Phil was overhyped – it happens. Perhaps he’s more stubborn than people thought. Perhaps he matured early. I do think he’s way too big on top. He used to have this great pitcher’s build, like a young Clemens. Now he looks like the old Clemens, at the end of his career.
I said before the season that I don’t think Phil will be here by the time he becomes a FA.
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