Entering 2011, the Yankees farm system is in pretty good shape. With a lot of the consensus top 10 picks in the AA- AAA range, many Yankee fans have high expectations. While I think that optimism is certainly well founded, I also think we should keep things in perspective. Prospects fail. That isn’t a controversial statement or an overly negative platitude recited by baseball fans, it’s just a fact. Over at Royals Review, Scott McKinney put together a fantastic study looking at 14 years of Baseball America’s top prospect lists to determine the relative success and failure rate of prospects. The conclusions are a real splash of cold water:
- About 70% of Baseball America top 100 prospects fail.
- Position player prospects succeed much more often than pitching prospects.
- About 60% of position players ranked in Baseball America’s top 20 succeed in the majors.
- About 40% of pitchers ranked in the top 20 succeed in the majors.
- About 30% of position players ranked 21-100 succeed in the majors (with the success rate declining over that ranking range from about 36% to about 25%)
- About 20% of pitchers ranked 21-100 succeed in the majors (with the success rate declining over that ranking range from about 22% to about 15%)
- Prospect success rates have not improved much over time and there is little data to support the contention that prospects are more likely to succeed now than they have in the past.
It should be said that these numbers are not predictive and they’re based on only 14 years of data off just one top 100 list per year.
It’s particularly stark how often pitching prospects fail. 77% of the pitchers in Baseball America’s top 100 list from 1990-2003 have failed to turn into average players.
Applying this dose of reality to the Yankees system I think is a healthy reminder of how difficult and long the journey can be for a prospect to reach his ceiling. Am I saying the Yankees are doomed to prospect irrelevancy? Absolutely not. Take Jesus Montero for example.
Since 2009 or so, I have not heard one serious report indicating a big, debilitating flaw in Jesus Montero’s swing. Sure he has a little bit of swing and miss and could take a few more walks, but in terms of his actual swing, I don’t think I’ve heard a hugely negative report about him. All of his question marks have come surrounding his defensive ability. His ceiling right now is an all-star level bat in the middle of the order. What are the odds of him AT LEAST becoming an average player though? They must be pretty decent.
Aside from Montero though there are a lot more questions. Can Brackman and Betances stay healthy? Betances and Banuelos both threw less than 90 innings in 2010- can they pitch effectively with an 200 inning workload? Will their stuff translate to the major league level? There are a million things that could derail Gary Sanchez, Cito Culver and Slade Heathcott before they even sniff AAA. Can Austin Romine’s approach translate into major league success?
For all the success the Yankees had prospect wise in 2010, there are still many more obstacles to overcome before these guys are productive major league players.
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Fantastic post. One thing that struck me about the study was the gap between top 20 prospects and those below them, even 21-30. After you get past that first wave of prospects, the chances of success are a lot worse.
Also, the gap between pitchers and hitters is illuminating. Take Montero and Banuelos, and let’s use John Manuel’s list. he has Montero 3 and Banuelos 20. That seems to suggest it reasonable gap, but this study shows that hitting prospects in the Montero range succeed 62.7% of the time while pitchers rated where Manny is make it 37.3% of the time. That is a monumental gulf. I wouldn’t trade Jesus, but I’d give up Manny in the right deal for someone who has already “made it.”
It’s taken a while for me to come to terms with one of the B’s being traded (especially ManBan), this article kinda locks it up for me. While I’d love to see Manny succeed with the Yankees, if he’s able to bring back a proven MLB peice that the Yankees need, I can now side with moving one of the top prospects to get that piece. Thanks for helping me see th light!
It just dependson the pitcher coming back in return, if you want to trade Banuelos for a Jake Westbrook type or another simply servicable just because Banuelos might not make it I can’t agree but if your bringing back a Josh Johnson type of course he couldn’t get in the way.
The interesting one is Liriano, I am still not into the idea of giving up Manny for Liriano because I feel there are serious questions about Liriano’s health and his use of the slider (will it re-injure him, what happens if he has stop throwing it as much or the pitch regresses) and because of that I just don’t think Francisco is “proven” so much in the face that he has had 2 good seasons in 5.
Any ace you trade Banuelos if you have to, most number 2′s are worth the trade as long as they are young and are under team control, however any 1 year rentals or number 3 and back guys (number 3′s in the AL East) then it’s not so cut and dry.
We must not over value prospects but one shouldn’t fall into the trap of “most prospects fail, let’s trade them all for vets so we get return” like we did in the past.
Agreed. Need to find a balance.
And for the first time in a long time I think the front office can do that, Cashman seems like he is in a place where he doesn’t care what people think he is going to do what he thinks is best for the team unless overruled.
I trust Cashman not to trade for just anyone and not to panic and over pay for a piece that might not be a difference maker.
Yeah I think I would too. This can all be a little bit of a reminder about trade value also I think. Everyone can get sentimental and attached to certain guys, but when it comes to trades I think we should be a little more open minded about it. Certainly with guys around “peak value” if you will- would it be best to “sell high” on a Brackman or Betances? I’m not sure. I think injury risk is a real concern and staying healthy is something some guys have and others do not.
In general though that study did remind me we should be more open to dealing prospects in the right situations. You can really forget about that when you fall deep in prospect love with these dudes.
That’s right, I love dudes.
Brackman is at his peak and a sell high on him wouldn’t be a bad idea but with Betances I feel he has a lot more room to grow than Andrew and hasn’t yet reached his peak, Betances is below Banuelos and Montero on the list of course by wouldn’t just ship him off for the sake of getting a middle of the road piece it just doesn’t make sense.
Great post. Quick question, though:
What does “succeed” mean?
Is that equivalent to achieving league average success? and for how long does one need to play at a level that qualifies as succeeding?
From the original post:
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/543733/Top_prospect_legend.png
Click that, it gives you the breakdown, and the post itself explains methodology/limitations.
Great piece and good ammo to use, BUT I’d caution that this study only touches on the dawning of the internet era and the explosion of readily available information and video, and the expanded use of advanced metrics. I’m not about to say that this will change the results, just that I would not be surprised if it did. Maybe in another five years we can see what 2004-2011 has given us.
New York Yankees: Jesus Montero/Pick a “B”
This would be a no-brainer if Montero were actually a catcher, but despite significant improvement over the years, he’s advanced only from completely unacceptable to merely awful. His bat is absolutely big league-ready and provides middle-of-the-order potential, but despite saying all the right things publicly, the Yankees said everything they needed to about their confidence in Montero behind the plate with their $4 million check for the services of what’s left of Russell Martin.
As for the much-ballyhooed B’s of Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, and Andrew Brackman, it should really be a duo, as Brackman fits conveniently only thanks to the letter his last name begins with. There has been some talk about both Banuelos and Betances having their timetables accelerated because of the weaknesses that are the back of New York’s big-league rotation, but despite tremendous upside, both remain unproven. Although both took big steps forward in 2010, neither topped 90 innings, and each has gone over triple digits in innings just once during his brief career. Therefore, 2012 is a more realistic expectation for the pair, and although both arms and Montero have All-Star potential, the latter most likely will be a first baseman or designated hitter by the time he reaches that level.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12953
BP’s Goldstien with some harsh words for Montero. But he makes a solid point. We all know the bat is ready, so why get Martin unless you have no faith in his glove? Actions speak louder than words, and it’s generally accepted he has nothing left to prove with the bat. If he was ‘acceptable’ defensively, he’d be our opening day catcher.
I disagree. You have to look at the two units as discrete things: his offense is ready, but his defense is largely not. Just because they do not see him as good enough defensively right now doesnt mean that they feel he will never be good enough. Martin gives them the opportunity to break Jesus in slowly behind the plate. I’ve heard enough lately from Piliere and Manuel that suggests Montero can be adequate (read: not terrible) in the majors that I can believe that the Yankees see Jesus as a catcher.
Not to mention having an incumbent catcher allowed the Giants move with Posey as they pleased and although he didn’t start out the year as the catcher for them he was ROY and a huge part of their WS run.
If you have a catcher who has some defensive flaws and his game calling isn’t the best wouldn’t you want a fall back well? Martin wouldn’t have signed being promised anything but a starting role but if he falters mid season he can make no excuses for Montero replacing him and if he flourishes then we have a valueable trade chip under team control both this year and next, Martin was simply a smart investment from every angle and it his signing was for this reason more than Montero never being ready. When something good comes up you don’t pass simply because you MAY have the answer somewhere in a still unproven commodity, no matter how much you believe in him… or don’t.
Even if Montero were ready to be a catcher at the big league level I think he would still be better off not starting everyday from the begining of the season with as much anticipation as fans have for him and all he will be required to do as a catcher especialy in New York, having Martin and Posada to share ABs with (at C and DH respectively) at some point during the season is a good thing, he doesn’t have to be shoved into a swim or sink situation from the begining and the pitchers don’t have to worry about a rookie calling a game for them when they are still early in the season and not fully into the flow of the year.
The difference between Posey and Montero is everyone thought Buster had the physical tools to catch, it was just a matter of learning the trade. Scouts that are down on Montero are doubtful because of who he is physically. That’s an enormous difference. That’s also why its hard to know whether or not he’ll ever take those final few steps defensively, as Mo seems to assume he can/will. He led the league in passed balls last year, and that’s dealing with minor league pitchers with subpar stuff. His catch and throw skills are too slow with his release. As maddening as Posada could be at times with his stubbornness and infielder’s instincts (which are bad as a catcher) he was at least a good catch and throw guy when healthy.
Passed balls bother me more than anything from a catcher. First, they’re often scored wild pitches on pitches that any decent defensive catcher should block, so I double the actual number in my head. Next, passed balls often come at times when a pitcher is struggling with his control, which from a pitcher’s perspective takes a bad situation and makes it worse. Now he doesn’t only have to overcome his own mechanical issues, but his catcher’s defensive deficiencies as well. Finally, all runners on base move into scoring position, again often at a time when the pitcher is already struggling. A catcher is there to enhance his pitcher’s performance, not make things worse when they go bad.
“That’s also why its hard to know whether or not he’ll ever take those final few steps defensively, as Mo seems to assume he can/will.”
I have no idea whether he can or will. I just have no problem believing that the team thinks he can/will.
A reason not to get too upset over the Soriano signing, no?
[...] Sean offered some commentary about the success rate of prospects: Entering 2011, the Yankees farm system is in pretty good [...]