Reader John Wood writes:
“It would be fun to see what is an acceptable slash line for positions and batting orders. For example, for 1B, is .275/.340/400 considered good? For a leadoff hitter, what about .290/.380/.395? Where do our boys fit?
Thanks for the question, John. I’m going to answer it semi-scientifically. What I’m going to do here is look at the 2010 average triple slash for each position while comparing that to a projected (CAIRO) slash line for each of the Yankees’ starting nine. I’ll do the same tomorrow, though I’ll replace position with lineup spot. Before I start, though, Moshe wanted me to pass along this “disclaimer” of sorts about projections:
Projections assume performance by players will tend to regress towards the mean, such that there will be a smaller spread between good and bad performances. Therefore, some players at the top end may be sold short, while those at the bottom end may see a statistical bump.
So, please, keep that in mind as you read this article.
Let’s start with the backstop.
2010 Average AL Catcher: .245/.312/.374/.686
2011 CAIRO: .263/.362/.380/.742
If Martin reaches that projection, or even comes close to it, I’ll be ecstatic. That’s a pretty high projection that looks even better when we see how the average AL catcher performed in 2010. That low slash line is to be expected, though, from what’s primarily a defensive position.
2010 Average AL First Baseman: .259/.345/.443/.788
2011 CAIRO: .276/.377/.515/.892
No surprises here: first basemen are good hitters (that .788 OPS as a group was the second highest OPS among AL position players) and is poised for a rebound-season. Even Tex’s down year (.846 OPS) was better than the average first baseman, so that shows how good a hitter can be.
2010 Average AL Second Baseman: .264/.328/.391/.719
2011 CAIRO: .306/.355/.511/.866
That line for the average second baseman is actually a little higher than I expected it to be, but it’s nothing crazy. Cano, even if he has a worse year than that projection, is a near lock to beat what the average second baseman puts up.
2010 Average AL Third Baseman: .261/.315/.414/.729
2011 CAIRO: .281/.372/.526/.898
Another corner player, the average AL 3B is our second best hitter so far, but again, we see a Yankee player projected to beat it comfortably. Like his mate across the diamond, A-Rod beat out the average guy at his position, even in a down year.
2010 Average AL Shortstop: .258/.312/.357/.669
2011 CAIRO: .290/.360/.406/.766
The AL SS in 2010 was the worst hitter in the league which, again is at least vaguely predictable. I would’ve thought the catcher would be worse, but it was a down year with the bat for shortstops in 2010. CAIRO sees a modest rebound from , and I can definitely get on board with that line. As we’ve noted previously, ‘s career worst year still had a pretty sizable OPS advantage on the average SS. That’s what still makes him valuable at that position–at least at the plate.
2010 Average AL Left Fielder: .273/.338/.430/.786
2011 CAIRO: .270/.358/.372/.730
Ah, our first “loser”, so to speak. Gardner had a breakout year in 2010 and CAIRO doesn’t see him repeating it, projecting him to lose 32 points of OPS. We see here what we should expect to see when comparing Gardner to other left fielders: he’s got better on base skills than the average bear, but his power pales in comparison to the competition. This doesn’t tell the whole story, obviously, because we’re not taking defense into consideration here. Gardner plays CF quality defense which helps bump his value quite a bit. He’s the opposite of Jeter here: he hits below his position’s average player, but he’ll field circles around that guy.
2010 Average AL Center Fielder: .262/.322/.403/.725
2011 CAIRO: .252/.335/.462/.817
Curtis’s biggest advantage over the average center fielder is his great power (.210 IsoP to .141). He also features better on-base skills (.083 IsoD to .060). That line is pretty close to what Curtis did last year and I’d be happy with it, though I might want to sacrifice a few points of slugging for a few points of on-base percentage. Bottom line: Curtis is likely to be better than average at his position.
2010 Average AL Right Fielder: .276/.350/.441/.791
2011 CAIRO: .260/.354/.470/.824
It may’ve been a down year for offense in 2010, but American League right fielders did not get that memo. They hit greatly as a group and will likely continue to do so. Swisher (.870) beat the average RF and projects to do the same in 2011, but we’ve got to remember: the average right fielder is a damn good hitter.
2010 Average AL Designated Hitter: .252/.332/.425/.758
2011 CAIRO: .267/.358/.458/.826
That’s a typical Posada line, no? Okay average, good on base skills and good power. What’s not typical is to whom he’s being compared. We’re used to Posada blowing away the competition at his position since he’s been such a great hitting catcher for so long. He’s a good enough hitter that he’ll probably outhit the average DH, but we must note that this gap is likely to close with Jorge moving to DH.
I keep parroting this line about the down year at the plate in 2011 so it’s worth noting a few things. Obviously, let’s keep in mind what Moshe said leading off this post. Second, it’s at least a little likely that offense rebounds a bit and the average line for each position could be higher than what it was in 2010. Even if that happens, I think the Yankees are in good shape. is the only guy who projects to be below average at his position with the bat, but like I said, he’ll make up for it in other ways. If anything, this should remind us that if there’s one thing NOT to worry about for 2011 regarding the Yankees, it’s the offense.
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Damn, the Yankees can hit. Even with Gardner, OPS undervalues OBP and doesn’t include steals, so Gardner might still be better than average offensively for his position. Every single Yankees position player is projected to have an above average OBP for his position. That’s pretty cool.
Yep, steals plus OBP get Gardner’s offense to just about average for a LF, which is not really apparent in OPS.
thanks guys, this is pretty exciting to see where the yankee players compare. I had thought even with the runs scored in 2010 we needed more, however as long as they repeat these types of numbers the offense looks to be a wowser. Just need tthe innings from starting pitching then let the pen take over. Looking good to me>
1st post here since I followed Yankeeist over yesterday. I am a lifelong Texas Ranger fan but found Yankeeist during the playoffs last year.
Yes, the Yankees should have a very good offense if they hit their projections. That is to be expected when they have amassed the kind of talent that NY has. With as much money as the Yankees can throw at their players, each should be SIGNIFICANTLY above average. And they are projected to be.
One word of warning though: old players are especially prone to injuries. And if someone like Posada or Jeter is injured for a long period, will the replacement be able to outperform the average by such a margin?
Another sobering thought is that age almost always robs a player of his defense (whether it is range or throwing ability) and you should expect this group to be below average at most positions, too. Teixeira and Gardner are obviously the exceptions. But Jeter is going to be even less useful at SS than he has been in the past.
And that defense won’t help the pitching. CC should be a superstar as usual and Hughes has talent. AJ might bounce back to be a solid #3. But if Rivera ever starts showing signs of aging, the Yankees will need a lot of that projected offense to try to keep up with Boston and Tampa.
I am not here to trash talk anyone. You don’t have to whip out the 27 trophies to put me in my place and I am fully aware that the Yankees are still a team that is good enough to get to the Series, if things break their way.
I am just saying that on paper this team isn’t clearly better than their opponents the way that those late 90s teams were.
Thanks for the blog. Keep up the good work. I plan on being here regularly.
I think you raise fair points, particularly with regard to age. There is absolutely some downside potential to this offense. As for defense, I have to disagree. They are above average at all 3 outfield spots, likely above average at catcher and first base, and likely average or thereabouts at 2nd. There are only two spots, SS and 3B, where they really have a chance to be terrible. But your overall point is valid: this team is not as stacked as it has been in the past, particularly in the rotation.
Thanks for stopping by, we welcome fans of other teams with open arms.
Age is a concern but I really think you pick poor choices in your examples… If for instances Posada were to go down his immediate replacement in probably Montero and while none of us can say for sure what he would do I think it’s fair to say he will be replacement level or better and i’d wager on better. Mariano is now backed up by Soriano and yes if he suddenly fell apart it would be bad it would be no where near as bad as if it had happened in recent years since we would technically have the best closer in the AL stepping into his place and if your asking for a replacement for someone like Mo it doesn’t get much better than Sori.
Jeter would be an interesting case to study if he got injured, he didn’t do well on D last year at and while his bat remained good for a SS it wasn’t Jeter like if we expect this trend to continue (I do, with maybe a slight rebound in the bat for a year or two) then his injury could open up for a much better defensive short stop to take his place. Now I am no saying the team is better off without Jeter and any replacement would struggle mightly with the bat but if you have to replace him you probably do get a decent size upgrade in defense, how big would determine how much you lose with the bat but I don’t think it would be something we couldn’t overcome.
The major injury concerns to me (if these players go down so do we) but be Teixiera, Rodriguez and Sabathia because I don’t think we can replace the power (even Alex’s declining power) at the corners. We already saw what happened when Cody Ransom and Pena had to take over for Alex and it wasn’t pretty, with Tex you lose both his prolific bat and his stellar defense and while Swisher is an adequate replacement you then lose an above average in RF and make him a simply average or closer to average first base bat with less D than Tex. Sabathia is obvious.
So I agre with what you are saying I just think the injuries we can’t overcome are simply different people.
Dean,
Great to see you at the new site! It’s always a treat to have you chime in as a thoughtful fan from one of our AL rivals.
You raise several interesting points, and I think a good number of Yankee fans are indeed losing sight of the fact that the team still projects to be very good. But you’re right; this is the first year in some time that they won’t enter the season as prohibitive favorites. I for one am looking forward to people sleeping on the Yankees for once and hopefully they end up surprising a few people.
Also, you may (or may not) have noticed I did a preview of the Orioles on Tuesday. I was planning on limiting my “other team” previews to the AL East, since I know those teams better than everyone else, but given your loyal patronage I may have to do a Rangers preview for ya.
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