Ownership could not have made circumstances more obvious, that last year’s signing was a panic move. Cashman admitted that the Steinbrenners and Randy Levine overruled him at Soriano’s very own press conference, and Hank later stated,
“People are missing the point; we didn’t get Lee but we got the second-best reliever next to our guy.”
This all happened after Levine met with Soriano’s infamous agent Scott Boras, and as if the panic-driven stars aligned in mid-January again, with Scott Boras to discuss Wednesday night. While the right-hander is regarded as the best remaining starting pitcher, he doesn’t fit into their plans to cut payroll. Yet the falling price of Jackson makes it seem more and more likely that he will be the Yankees latest panic signing.
I won’t deny the team needs pitching, and neither will Cashman, but the organization is full of depth on its last stretch of maturing. Scranton’s rotation is chock-full of starting pitchers that could, given the opportunity, help the major league club. Unfortunately, the Yankees aren’t known for their patience with starting pitcher prospects. It appears that ownership would rather spend money on the best possible pitcher left, than to take a chance on the five guys in AAA. Spending money to fix problems is not uncommonly associated with the Steinbrenner name, and perhaps it’s become instinct for the brothers, and though the method might be nonsensical, there remains plenty to like about .
Courtesy of AP Photo/Charles Cherney
For one, Jackson is young and full of potential. Since 2007, Jackson has spent time with five different clubs, during this time he grew less reliant on his mid-90’s fastball, and increased usage of his slider. He also moved on from the command issues that haunted his early years, posting a 3.0 BB/9 from 2009 to 2011. The results subsequently lowered his FIP every single year; Jackson hasn’t been able to combine all his success into one season though. In 2008 and 2009 he lowered his BB/9 but dealt with a low GB%/FB%. (0.98/0.92 respectively) In 2010, Jackson fixed his GB%/FB% (1.55) and maintained his BB/9 (3.35), but dealt with a low LOB%. (69.6%) In 2011, he kept his GB%/FB% stable (1.40), but faced a high 24.9 LD% and a .330 BABIP. Still, as a 28 year old, the trends appear optimistic about his ability to progress as a pitcher.
I have some trepidation about Jackson’s inconsistencies, but his 2011 and 2010 3.8 fWAR are impressive for a young starter. Other than Sabathia, no Yankee pitcher has posted a 3.8 fWAR or higher over the last 3 years. Even if Jackson doesn’t continue with these improving trends, his consistent wins above replacement indicate that he’d be the team’s number two starter. This sets a Jackson signing far apart from the Soriano signing, in that, he fills a need on the team. Assuming the rumors are true, and Jackson’s five year contract demands have diminished, the Yankees might finally find themselves a quality contract for a projectable starter. Of course, giving the minor leaguers a chance and looking forward to next year’s pitching market is the smartest long term decision for the team, yet I don’t expect the Steinbrenners to stray from their need to spend. Some things don’t change, but even if the Yankees make the panic move of signing Jackson, I look forward to an ownership mistake finally working out.
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I don’t think a potential Jackson signing would mean anything for the younger arms in the organization.
For starters, injuries always happen. You can never have enough starting pitching and Noesi, Warren, Phelps (or one of the two B’s) would be the next ones up to pitch a spot-start or take over for a guy on the DL (or, in the case of Phil Hughes, woeful underperformance).
Second, we don’t even know the terms of a potential Jackson signing. Yes, the Steinbrenners and Trost/Newman tend to get diarrhea of the checkbook. Yes, Scott Boras may be able to run intellectual laps around the higher-ups in the Yankee front office. Perhaps Jackson DOES get the ill-advised four- or five-year deal he seeks. But if the Yankees sign him to a two year deal? I can think of worse things than giving Phil Hughes all of 2012 to prove himself and then non-tender him after the season, thus opening up a spot for a premium free agent (or one of the more promising young arms).
Finally, as much as we value all the depth in the minor league system, the fact remains that we’re talking about no more than two high-upside young arms (the two B’s), with the rest of the guys slotting somewhere between #3 ceilings and bullpen arms. There’s certainly no shame in that — cost-controlled arms in the back end of the rotation have value (just as Ivan Nova) — but blocking one or two of them with someone that is predictably better (even marginally so if all goes well) is nevertheless an opportunity to trade depth for a mid-season acquisition. Was the Berkman trade not such a trade?
And, yes, I downgraded Hughes not once, but twice in my reply.
He’s a bullpen arm masquerading as a starter. We’ve got plenty of bullpen arms right now. If he can’t hack it as a starter this year, sad as it might be, it’ll be time for him to go. The Yanks can fill his role with plenty of other guys for much less money.
I’d love to see Edwin Jackson in pinstripes as long as the price isn’t astronomical. I’m not sure I trust him to pitch like a second starter, though he clearly has that kind of ability, but I think the consistency issues are overblown. He’s made 31+ starts in each of the past five seasons and he’s been the 20th most valuable pitcher in baseball by fWAR over the past three seasons (that ties him with Josh Beckett and puts him ahead of Mark Buehrle, James Shields, Ricky Nolasco, Roy Oswalt, Yovani Gallardo, and John Danks).
Mike,
Unless the Yankees end up signing Jackson to some unexpected four-year deal for far too much money, I don’t see how you can interpret Hal meeting with Boras as a panic move at all. Boras himself is the one who requested the meeting; Hal simply acquiesced.
Based on everything we’ve heard from the Yankees this winter regarding budgets and a reluctance to go multiple years on anyone but an elite talent, I don’t see them signing Jackson unless they somehow managed to work Boras down to a one-year pillow deal.
If the Yanks give him two years, I’ll be ok with it. This way their plan for 2014 luxury tax issues will still be OK.
I would prefer not to sign Jackson, citing your LD% and BABIP rises as an expression of his hittability, along with the Cardinal’s recent lack of faith. Would rather use Colon’s (presuming his shoulder is sound) vital combo in a limited load. Colon would be more amenable to working long relief until injury or lack of performance elsewhere arises.
That flexibility also improves the introduction of the AAA prospects in limited runs, rather than just shoving them out to swim, or sink.