I wouldn't want to see that in the batter's box. Would you?
Setting aside what it says about me and my priorities, I will never forget where I was during certain key moments in Yankees’ hot stove history. I was at work not working when I logged onto ESPN and discovered the Yankees had traded for . I was in an airport waiting to fly to London when I found out the team had signed . I was sitting at my desk in my room when I discovered the Yankees had signed . I was sitting in a bar with my buddy Omar, around 11pm on Friday night, when I saw the news ticker report that the Yankees had signed . A moment later my jaw hit the floor when I saw the Yankees had also traded Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda. That is one more moment I’ll never forget.
Reaction to the deal has been quick and plentiful. I’ll add my $0.02 on what happened at the end of this post. But amid all the reaction to the trade I don’t believe anyone here at TYA has actually looked more closely at Pineda’s numbers. Allow me to fill that void with the table below.
The numbers above come from Fangraphs. They show what Pineda did for the entire season in 2011, as well as what he did on a monthly basis. Given that he played in a very friendly pitcher’s park, I want to add that his ERA- was 95 and his FIP- was 88. In short, this guy is an excellent young pitcher. The Yankees are lucky to have him. Yes, his ERA did drift up in the second half of the season, but his peripherals stayed right where they needed to be. His FIP and xFIP remained strong, and he struck batters out at a pace comparable to without issuing too many free passes. He gave up too many homers, but he’s young and will get better.
How solid a first season was this for Pineda? In ‘s rookie season he pitched 180.1 innings, with an ERA of 4.39 and a FIP of 4.22 while striking out 8.53 per nine innings and walking 4.74. Pineda’s freshman year was better. It is important to note that CC was younger his first season in the pros than Pineda was. However, if you look at CC’s 2003 season, when he was 22 years old, his line was actually similar to Pineda’s. CC tossed 197.2 innings posting a 3.60 ERA and a 3.95 FIP. However, CC struck out just 6.42 per nine innings while walking 3.01. That is similar to what Pineda did his rookie year, except with worse peripherals.
This is meant to say that can turn into CC Sabathia. I’ll write that again: Michael Pineda can turn into CC Sabathia. The numbers bear this out, as does his impressive 6’7″, 260lbs frame. If Pineda continues to develop at a normal pace for a pitcher he can become one of the best in the game. And now he’s a Yankee.
Critics of the deal will correctly point out that Jesus Montero could very well develop into . They are correct, but that’s why it’s a trade. The Yankees traded a potential Miguel Cabrera for a potential CC Sabathia. Some folks would make that trade, others wouldn’t. This is a high risk high reward deal for both teams and the Yankees got the more established of the two players.
On a final note, while I sympathize with Yankee fans who are upset that the team traded its best hitting prospect since , this is the right move for the team. This is the Yankee move, the win-now move. It may be true that in a few years time the Yankees will need the kind of middle of the order bat that Montero projects to be, but it is equally true that they don’t need it right now. What is more is that in a few years the Yankees will have many holes in their lineup, many more than Jesus Montero alone could fill. Given the ages of Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, the Yankees have a window to win another championship that is slowly closing, at least with the current roster. However, while that window is open the Yankees continue to have one of baseball’s best offenses. So long as they have that kind of offensive fire power the Yankees will remain contenders. Now, they also have one of the deepest rotations in all of baseball. The combination makes them favorites to go far into the playoffs for the next two seasons, farther than they figured to go on Thursday night. Keeping Jesus Montero would mean the Yankees were planning for the next five seasons. Trading him is how they can potentially win it all in the next two seasons. That’s how the Yankees play baseball.
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Awesome stuff. I’ve been saying this since the trade was announced: let’s assume Pineda and Montero BOTH reach their full potential. I would much rather have Pineda over Montero because excellent starting pitching is just so damn hard to come by.
Amen to everything above.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/30937/michael-pineda
I’d like to add that much of Pineda’s poor 2nd half was a 3 game stretch sandwiched around the All-Star break where he gave up 19 Runs in 15.2 IP. If that was an anomaly for some reason (league adjusted to him, working on change, etc) and you can throw it out, his ERA drops to 3.01 for the season.
Excellent post. Couldn’t have said it better myself — so I won’t try.
This post is one of the best I have read so far on the trade. It sums up exactly how I feel about this move.
Considering the fact that Pineda is 22 years old and still somewhat raw, I don’t agree at all that this is a win-now move.
It’s a win now move because Pineda, right now, is better than Burnett, Hughes, Garcia and Nova – the guys he’s pushing further down the rotation or out of it altogether. Yes, he’s not a finished product and will need to develop his change up or a splitter going forward. But right now he has two really good pitches that he commands well and has shown he can get major-league hitters out with.
I did not view this trade very favorably when it first came out. But the more I looked into it and the more I read about it, the more I like it. I’m an older fan (62) who only recently (last season) started trying to understand the value of analytics regarding performance. And that is certainly the reason why I’ve changed my view of this trade. Stumbling onto this site last year has been a great help. Thanks to all the writers and commentors.
Agreed that AJ needs to go. Hughes will never be a successful starter due to the fact that he short-arms or pushes the ball on delivery…the reason his velocity has waned over the years. It’s also why he has limited movement on the fastball. He’s at best a short reliever…let him go too before everyone knows he can’t pitch more than an inning at a time. I think it’s very possible that Garcia starts in the five spot with a rookie pitcher coming up before mid-season to share that spot.
Thank you to everyone for taking the time to read the post and share your comments. I greatly appreciate it.
I would be stunned if Phil Hughes is not the Yankees’ 5th starter. CC, Pineda, and Kuroda all have jobs, and Nova has certainly earned his spot. A.J. is, well, A.J. and Freddy Garcia is an insurance policy. If Hughes proves himself, then the Yankees have a lot of young arms coming on strong. If not, we know he can work out of the bullpen and the team has many additional options as well.
Finally, Cashman has proved that he is Cash-money. This was yet another one of his stealth moves. Pitchers and Catchers have yet to report. I said I’d admit that I was wrong if the Yankees made big moves. I was wrong. They made big moves. I don’t think they’re done.
My only concern is the Yankees basically handing Burnett a spot in the rotation because of his salary. Burnett would be the most expensive longman…
I could see the Yankees saying it’s really a competition once Spring Training begins but I believe they’ll ultimately hand the rotation spot to Burnett.
I, of course, hope to be proven incorrect.
Barry Zito would still be the most expensive long man by a country mile.
Very good take on things! The CC Sabathia comparison is one I’ve been using for people against this deal. Looking at both pitchers when they were called up the similarities are striking. Both having very large 6’7 frames, being 2 pitch pitchers, with whipe out sliders, and plus velocity. The main differences being that CC is left handed and Pineda seems to know how to generate more swings and misses with his stuff by having better control.
For what it’s worth Pineda compares much more favorably with Sabathia than Montero ever did with Cabrera or Edgar Martinez.
I found a very good article on Pineda’s pitch repertoire over at DRays Bay. I think it compliments this piece very well. They used pitch graphs to try and prove that Pineda does indeed vary his fastball and is more than just a “2 pitch pitcher”. Very well written and informative.
http://www.draysbay.com/2012/1/14/2706951/scouting-michael-pineda-new-york-yankees
Great stuff at that link. I have to confess that I did not see Pineda pitch last year but after reading that article I’m looking forward to seeing him in action in pinstripes.
I saw him pitch at least 10 times last year with the MLB package and that piece made me even more excited to watch him.
I can’t wait to look back on all the Yankee fan hysteria and laugh when Pineda is blowing guys away. He’ll struggle at times like all young pitchers but I have tons of confidence in this move.