I guess I should react to the trade now, huh? When I first heard that the Yankees had traded Jesus Montero to the Mariners for , my first reaction was to scream a word that is not appropriate for a family blog such as this one. But, the more I thought about it, I became slightly less annoyed. It’s sad to see Jesus Montero go, especially after the tantalizing display he put on last year in his cup of coffee with the big league team. Even if the Yankees thought Montero had no future at catcher, I thought he would’ve provided value by being a cheap DH who produced like a well above average DH. But, the Yankees decided to go another route. They traded future middle-of-the-order security for future middle-of-the-rotation security. If there is a type of player you’re going to trade Montero for, it’s Michael Pineda. He’s young, extremely talented, and has many years of team control left. I swear (and I’ll break this, so I don’t know why I’m swearing) to never fall in love with a prospect again…Anyway, despite the big gains in the rotation this weekend (yay, !), there is still a hole left to fill for the Yankees.
Montero figured to get the lion’s share of the DH at bats this season and without him, the Yankees don’t have a clear DH. They could rotate the DH to give , , , etc. half days off, but that presents a problem in that it gives inferior players way too many plate appearances. While the Yankees have a strong enough lineup that they could support a DH rotation, that doesn’t mean they should do it. There are some options out there, including possible reunions with or , but the best option out there is most definitely Carlos Pena.
Pena, who was briefly in the Yankee farm system in 2006, has blossomed since leaving. He broke out in 2007, destroying the competition by hitting .282/.411/.627 with a .430 wOBA and 167 wRC+. That year, he smacked 46 homers and had a ridiculous IsoP of .345. 2008 and 2009 weren’t quite as good, but still solid. He turned in back to back .374 wOBA marks (131/130 wRC+ respectively). 2010 was ugly in that Carlos batted just .195. He still, however, turned in a .325 OBP (thanks to a 14.9% walk rate) and a .407 SLG (.211 Iso) leading to an above average (105 wRC+) wOBA of .326. His batting average (.225) didn’t rebound in 2011, but everything else was more than acceptable. He ended with a .357 OBP (16.7% walk rate) and a .462 SLG (.237 Iso), giving him a wOBA of .354 and a wRC+ of 119.
If anything, and this is exactly what the Yankees want and need in their lineup (as does every team), Pena is a guy who’s going to get on base a lot and hit a lot of balls into the stands. The strikeout totals are a bit annoying, but they’re clearly offset by all the walks and the power. Michael Kay, who can’t stop commenting on Pena’s strikeout problems when the Yankees face him, may not approve, but signing Pena would be wise. And if he is brought in to DH, I’d like to see him used strictly against right handed pitching. Why? Because he mauls, destroys, terminates, demolishes, and straight-up-wrecks right handed pitching. Since and including 2007, here are his OBP/SLG/wOBA/wRC+ numbers against righties:
2007: .421/.627/.439/173
2008: .418/.576/.419/162
2009: .369/.567/.389/140
2010: .329/.430/.334/111
2011: .388/.504/.383/140
He may not be in the crazy stratosphere against righties like he was a few years ago, but it’s abundantly clear that Pena can more than handle himself against righties. If he’s signed, there are a few ways the Yankees could approach the lineup. They could do a straight up DH platoon with Pena and , leaving to play LF, even against lefties. They could decide to give Alex Rodriguez DH days against lefties, while inserting Eduardo Nunez at third and Andruw Jones in left, while Pena and Garder hang on the bench. They could bring in another RHB. There are a lot of things they can do.
This all makes a lot of sense, but of course it’s only part of the equation. We may want the Yankees to want Pena, but do they want Pena? (Looks like they have at least some interest) And more importantly, does Pena want the Yankees. There is the possibility that he wants to sign somewhere else to play first base. If those things line up, and it looks like they might, Pena would be a wonderful fit for the Yankees at first.
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Matt, you make a great case for Pena. However, if they can’t get Pena, why not give Jorge Vazquez a shot at it. Sure he wouldn’t play the field much, but then they really don’t need he to.
No way. He’s got a hole in his swing the size of one of those over-sized tennis balls. MLB pitching would eat him up. His best move to make money is probably to go over to Japan.
Good stuff Matt, totally agreed. Pena would be a great fit in this situation. Wilson Betemit (stealing Alex’s idea) would also be an interesting platoon guy as well (.365 wOBA against righties last year)who could also play 3rd base when A-Rod DH’s. This would potentially allow A-Rod to DH more (and stay healthy) without giving a ton of AB’s to Nunez.
Andruw Jones: .400 wOBA/150 wRC+ vs. lefties in 2011
Carlos Pena: .383 wOBA/140 wRC+ vs. righties in 2011
That would make one fine DH.
The Yankees biggest shortfall in 2011 was hitting with RISP and getting guys home from 3rd base w less than 2 outs. Pena can’t choose where and when he’ll hit his tremendous home runs. Many will come when my Yanks are already winning or losing by 5 runs or more, ala Tex. A large portion of Pena’s strikeouts will come with RISP. Getting Pena will not help the Yankees one % point. Actually, he will reduce their already poor team BA .236 (w RISP)…the Yankees need a contact hitter badly. They already have Tex and Swish to swing for a homer on every pitch and bat .235, we don’t need another one.
The Yankees had such troubles w/RISP that they scored the second most runs in baseball. And, I’m pretty sure they were one of the most efficient teams at getting a runner on third and under two outs. In fact, they had a .990 OPS in that category (incl. a .343 average) and were 4th in the AL in sac flies.
Pfft, you dare let facts get in the way of a perfectly biased and untrue argument! What kind of blog is this!?!
It’s easier to replace production at DH than anywhere else. That’s why in the short-term the trade is a winner. Whether it’s a winner in 3 or 5 years, who knows.
I hate the rotating DH idea for the very reasons you specified. I also think that when older players need rest they need a full day off with maybe a PH appearance. Pena’s not a bad choice if he can maintain his production against RHP but the Betemit idea also has merit since he can play 3B (albeit not that well) and A-Rod needs more down time than Tex who is the only guy Pena can fill in for in the field.
It is no coincidence that Pena broke out after leaving the Yankees AAA club in 2006, and that’s Kevin Long who Pena credited with straightening him out. A reunion with Long could provide even better numbers than the last couple of years. If the Yanks do sign Pena, does that preclude them re-signing Chavez?
Worse than giving inferior players AB, a rotating DH ensures that Nunez would play somewhere in the field almost every day.
And I just can’t watch that again
Hi Matt. Yes Nunez threw a lot away last year. But, just a bit of perspective–in Jeter’s first year, he threw so many away that fans were absolutely howling. Ole George S. was squirming in his seat and making nasty comments in the press. He wanted to trade Jeter or send him back to the minors, but others in the orgsnization convinced him not to do it. Cano was also considered a below average defender by many when he first came up. It didn’t take long for both to come around, at all. Evidently, behind the scenes people work with the young guys on release points, arm angles, feet getting set, etc. The fact that Nunez played so much and was not traded tells me that,at least, some people in YankeeCentral feel he has something of value to offer. Understand your frustration, but let’s see what happens this year.
If there was any reason to think he’d hit like Jeter and Cano or if throwing was his only problem, I’d live through the growing pains.
He’s a backup infielder that can’t field, throw, and apparently has no idea what to do when someone bunts with a runner on second.
lol, maybe. But a lot of baseball people seem to like him. Unless he starts losing games, I’m being a little more patient with him.
Signing the Japanese fellow would have helped.
If we go the almost everyday DH route Pena is the best option. Adding someone like Betemit works as well but Pena would make our lineup vs RHP devestating.
Vs RHP
Jeter, Granderson, Cano, Rodriguez, Teixeira, Pena, Swisher, Martin, Gardner.
You could switch Swisher and Pena depending on who’s hot or whatever the reason, either way there are no easy ABs in that lineup. You get a little lefty heavy, but if Granderson continues to hit lefties you would only need to pinch hit Jones for Pena in a late inning situation.
Should we trade AJ for Alfonso Soriano to get another DH? (yankees may have to eat some money given the difference in the remaining values of the contracts).
Soriano has the worst contract in baseball right now and is actually less valuable than Burnett at this point. People need to forget what Soriano was and look at who he is.
The Yankees have a nasty team right now if you look at all the elements. It’s really a luxury that their biggest problem is to find out who can hit DH for us to add to our already great line-up. I mean picture this team…
Starting Rotation:
1. CC Sabathia
2. Michael Pineda
3. Ivan Nova
4. Hiroki Kuroda
5. A.J. Burnett / Freddy Garcia / Phil Hughes
Bullpen:
1. Mariano Rivera
2. David Robertson
3. Rafael Soriano
4. Joba Chamberlain
5. Cory Wade
6. Boone Logan
7. Luis Ayala (If they re-sign him)
Line-Up:
1. Derek Jeter – SS
2. Curtis Granderson – CF
3. Mark Teixeira – 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez – 3B
5. Robinson Cano – 2B
6. Carlos Pena (If they sign him) / Andruw Jones / Prince Fielder (I’m a dreamer) Alfonso Soriano (Wouldn’t mind seeing him back, trade A.J. for him straight up dollar for dollar because both contracts are hideous) – DH
7. Nick Swisher – RF
8. Russell Martin – C
9. Brett Gardner – LF
Bench:
1. Francisco Cervelli – C
2. Eduardo Nunez – UTIL INF
3. Eric Chavez (If they re-sign him) – UTIL INF
That’s a great team right there, 100+ wins. Plus they are one of the only teams that can afford to sign Yoenis Cespedes and stick him in Double-A or Triple-A to make up for the loss in prospects after the Pineda-Montero deal. It’s great to be a Yankee fan, I go to sleep happy every night because I know everything’s gonna be o.k.
I’d put Kuroda 2 or 3 in the rotation and I imagine the Yankees will as well. He’s just more likely to throw 200 innings than either Pineda or Nova and has that veteran experience you need behind CC.
Also I think the Yankees are going to go with the lineup they used at the end of last season and in the playoffs, putting Cano 3 and Teixeira 5.
Why does anyone think the Yankees would trade Burnett’s contract for Soriano’s? Soriano’s contract is more expensive and longer in length. Not mention he has lost whatever little on base skill he once had and is a guarantee to post a sub .300 OBP. I’d rather have 2 AJ
Why would Pena come to the Yankees to be a DH? He is excellent with the glove. That is where a lot of his value comes from. Power patience and defense. Betamit seems to make more sense financially and realistically. Prince is NOT coming here on a one year deal either. The Yankees had to expand payroll to fit in Kuroda at ten million. How much do you think one year of Prince would cost?
Well from Pena’s POV he might want a chance to win. If his options boil down the the Indians or worse versus the Yankees for one year he may see value in the chance to win. I don’t think he’s all that likely to sign, but it does make sense from that standpoint.
To elaberate on Soriano he is owed 54 million over the next 3 years (18 million per year), while Burnett is owed 33 over the next 2 seasons (16.5 million per year). Over the last 3 seasons he has posted a total WAR of 4.4, while Burnett in that same time has posted a 6.4 WAR.
Soriano past 3 seasons:
.241/.303/.423, 0.0 WAR
.258/.322/.496, 3.1 WAR
.244/.289/.469, 1.3 WAR
So Soriano is owed more per year, for an extra year, and hasn’t had the same value as Burnett over the last 3 seasons. Let’s not forget that even with his bad past 2 seasons he still provided 33 starts per year for 3 years straight and won game 2 of the 2009 WS. At the very least if he can throw 200 mediocre innings in the 5 spot he’s still one of the best 5th pitching options around.
I think Pena stays in Chicago unless the Cubs pry open the coiffers for Prince.
No thoughts on Damon? He manufactures runs in all sorts of ways. Can still play the field too.
A Damon/Jones DH-4th outfielder platoon would be very versatile.
The Cubs just traded for Rizzo; they’re not going to sign Fielder.
Also while Damon can physically walk out to the outfield, a little more should be required in order to say he can “play” the field. He’s awful in the outfield by any stretch. If he was willing to take a 2-4 million dollar contract, never ever play the field, hit no higher than 7th or 8th, and sit anytime we want to put Alex or Jones at DH then I’d consider him.