The news that superstar Rockies pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez is available has sent Yankee fans far and wide abuzz, dreaming up packages to entice the Rockies to part with him. We all know what’s in it for the Yanks, so lets look at a prospective deal from the Rockies point of view. At the end of the day, Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd has to like a package enough to pull the trigger on a deal. It has to fill the needs of the Rockies, or he’ll either ship him elsewhere or simply choose to stand pat. In this piece I’ll examine the Rockies 25 man roster needs, organizational depth and Colorado’s top prospects who could be on the way to fill those needs of the MLB club. The point is to ascertain what the Rockies will be looking for. Remember, O’Dowd is looking to make a pivotal franchise deal, akin to the deal the Rangers made in trading Mark Teixeira in 08. Do the Yanks have what it takes? Are the two clubs a match?
25 man roster needs-I doubt the Rockies are looking for an MLB-ready Catcher with Chris Ianetta as their starter. He doesn’t hit for average, but hits for enough power and walks enough to give him a solid .347 wOBA, good for 4th in all of baseball at his position. Ianetta is signed through 2012 with a 5 mil club option for 2013. A much more pressing need would be to upgrade at 2B and CF, where the Rockies are fielding weak hitting defensive specialists at both positions. The Rockies could also use a future 3B with journeyman Ty Wiggington signed for this year and next. Wiggy can play anywhere, so if you find a long term answer at 3B a player like him won’t stand in the way of making a deal.
On the pitching side of the ledger, the Rockies can use all the help they can get. They’re 11th in the National League with a 4.08 ERA and in the same division as the San Francisco Giants (#3 in NL). If they deal Ubaldo, they’ll be looking for a high end prospect starter in return that can eventually hold down a spot in the rotation, preferably as soon as possible. They’re desperate for starters, that’s why they reached all the way down to AA for Juan Nicasio earlier this year. Jorge Delarosa just had Tommy John surgery 6 weeks ago, so he’s out until at least the middle of next year, probably longer. In the bullpen the Rockies have a sub par group, pitching to a 4.00 ERA that ranks 10th out of the 16 teams in the National League. If I’m O’Dowd, I want pitching, pitching and some more pitching. I don’t make this deal without 2-3 pitchers coming back, at least one of them high end and the rest MLB ready.
Top Prospects-Here’s the preseason list of the top 10 Rockies prospects according to Baseball America:
| 1. | Tyler Matzek, lhp |
| 2. | Wilin Rosario, c |
| 3. | Nolan Arenado, 3b |
| 4. | Christian Friedrich, lhp |
| 5. | Peter Tago, rhp |
| 6. | Kyle Parker, of |
| 7. | Rex Brothers, lhp |
| 8. | Juan Nicasio, rhp |
| 9. | Chad Bettis, rhp |
| 10. | Hector Gomez, ss |
As you can see, the 2nd best prospect in the Rockies system is a Catcher named Wilin Rosario. What’s worse news for Yankee fans is he’s described by BA as “rare catcher with an impact bat” and the athleticism to stick at the position, although he needs to improve on his strike zone discipline a bit. He threw out 44% of base runners in 2010. He’s not quite the hitter Montero is but far better defensively. He had a big year with the bat in 2010, but he’s currently in AA and has struggled a bit offensively this year coming back from a major knee injury. If you’re going to sell the Rockies on Montero it’s going to be as a temporary part time Catcher and/or eventual 1B replacement for the 37 year old Todd Helton, whose contract expires this year (club option for 2012). That’s not impossible, its not even a bad idea, but it does lower Montero’s value. Most scouts think Montero belongs at 1B anyway, but Dowd may not go for it. Replacing a legend like Helton is hard enough, doing it with a guy who’s never played the position may be asking too much.
As for the rest of that list Matzek, Arenado, Tago, Parker and Bettis are all a long way off in A-ball. Friedrich has pitched well but proved to be a bit too hittable in AA. Gomez has struggled mightily with the bat in AA this year. He’s raw but scouts love his tools. Yankee fans will remember facing Nicasio during interleague. He’s held his own in the bigs thus far in 2011, which is impressive considering he was called up straight from the AA Texas League. Nicasio looks like the only guy on that preseason list who will help the MLB club this year. The rest of them are either too far away or just not ready.
Summary-One could understand why O’Dowd would consider a deal. He’s 8.5 games out in the West and 10 out for the Wild Card. Not a single Rockies prospect made the BP Top 50 midseason list, so his system could use replenishment. I have to assume he’s looking to compete next year, so you’ll need to be sending MLB-ready talent their way. The Yanks are a decent fit, not perfect, but you can build a package around Montero (as a future 1B) and a few pitchers. Or you could offer a package of mostly MLB ready pitchers, where at least one (or both) of the Killer Bs will be going along with Nova, Warren/Noesi and a solid positional player such as Laird or Adams. That may still not be enough, but it is in line with package Dan Haren garnered a few years back. The residual value you’ll have to make up on that very cheap contract means you’ll be backing up the truck to your farm system, and maybe more. This is the type of deal that may even require you to peel someone off your MLB roster, and there are out there O’Dowd may really like. It won’t be cheap, but its a win-now move and that’s what the Yanks are all about. But if it gets to the point where Cashman is taking anyone but Noesi off the MLB roster, my guess is he’ll pass.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
I think something like Montero, one of Banuelos/Betances, Nova, Joseph, and Laird probably gets it done. Those last two guys can be switched out for prospects of a similar talent level, but I think the top 3 are probable.
[Reply]
Larry Koestler Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 9:41 am
That sounds right regarding what’ll it take. The bigger question — do you make this move if those are the players it would require?
[Reply]
Moshe Mandel Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 10:04 am
Probably. If they wanted Banuelos, Id be a bit more hesitant, and I think Montero might make the deal look bad down the road, but I probably make the deal.
[Reply]
Matt Imbrogno Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 10:31 am
Yeah, I think I would, too. I’d try to do everything I could to get them to take Betances, though. Maybe do Montero, Betances, Nova, Warren, Laird or something.
[Reply]
Steve S. Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 10:53 am
Yeah, that’s becoming the consensus on Jimenez, now I just wonder if someone else can trump that and/or if O’Dowd really likes Montero. I keep having flashbacks to last year’s Cliff Lee deal, where Jack Z passed on Montero for Smoak. Jack Z made his bones in player development, so he knows what he’s talking about. Doesn’t mean he’s right, but Montero was ranked ahead of Smoak by BA as they climbed the ladder. Teams make their own evaluations. Throw in the fact that Montero’s stock has dropped substantially this year.
[Reply]
I don’t trade Manny Banuelos or Delin Betances. Banuelos is a rare lefty with solid number #1 or 2 stuff. He may be ready next year. Delin Betances has best stuff in farm and was compared based on his size and strength to King Felix. Will he ever be that? probably not but I don’t trade either one. I would strongly consider trading Jesus, Nova, Noesi, and maybe cojo or Adams. If that’s not enough, let them go somewhere else.
Problem with most Yankee fans is that they are so quick to want, want, want, without looking at big picture. Looking at Jimenez stats over last few years you see a top five starter. But looking at his potential for arm injury with the funky delivery, past minor arm issues, looking at his decrease in velocity, looking at the fact that he is a pitcher in national league is more than enough for me to be skeptical. I trade one of killer B’s with Montero and others for Kershaw. Not for Jimenez, too many questions.
Lastly, why would the rockies want to trade a stud like Jimenez when he is still young, they can build around him, and his contract is reasonable? Word is that there is concern about shoulder problems and attitude. Keep him. I’ll back up truck for Clayton not for him.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 1:07 pm
I have never heard one thing about shoulder issues involving Jimenez ever. They would be willing to trade him because with the way his contract is they can maximize the return value now. They won’t be able to sign him longterm with the extensions of Tulow, and Cargo, and Chacin has really developed over the last year into a top flight pitcher.
If all it takes is Montero and one of Banuelos and Betances, you have to jump on it.
His velocity may be down for the year, but it has slowly been climbing and recently has settled back into the 95+ range. He started out the year with a hip injury, and wasn’t able to build up his velocity early on. I think way too much has been made about the velocity personally.
[Reply]
I think we all have a Montero+ pitching package in mind, but if some team can come up with a top flight 2B or CF who is MLB ready and can hit, I think O’Dowd would find that way too good to pass up.
If the Rangers do a package of Jurickson Profar and Martin Perez, that blows away anything the Yanks can offer. Are they in on Jimenez? Will they go that far? I have no idea. Rosenthal has the Reds and Tigers as the main competitors for his services. A Tiger package of Turner and Castellanos would be very close to the Yankee offer.
[Reply]
So nobody noticed I misspelled “Jimenez” huh?
[Reply]
Matt Imbrogno Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 11:22 am
I only come here for the pictures.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 1:08 pm
Nobodies perfect Steve… At least not you ;) haha. I kid.
[Reply]
I’d trade Edith Ann for Jose Jimenez.
[Reply]
I want to start this by making it clear I love the potential of Banuelos, and Betances a ton. But I think we all have to be carefull with overhyping them both. It seems almost everyone I have encountered talking about these 2 has both of them all but guaranteed to be no worse than a high end 3 starter, and likely 1-2′s. However I think it’s important that we don’t forget they both have very real weaknesses. Neither has pitched above double A yet, and both have serious control problems. I still like Manny more than Betances, but his lack of control has to at least be considered. I’ve seen way too many people simply write it off as no big deal, because of his age, and because he’s a lefty. Just because they were impressive in spring training, let’s not forget they are both prospects, and prospects tend to be highly overrated by their own fan base.
Ubaldo is a known commodity, and his struggles this year have been wildy overstated. His numbers since June first have been incredible, and he has been one of the best road pitchers in baseball this season. If Montero, Betances/Banuelos, Nova, and Warren/Phelps/Noesi/Laird/Phelps gets it done, I don’t see how you can possibly say no.
[Reply]
Steve in PDX Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 2:09 pm
Wait what? Montero, a B and Nova +1 other? No way, too much. If they get Montero + a B there is no reason to stick Nova in as well. The highest I would go is Montero, Nova and 2 of Warren/Noesi/Laird (I don’t know why they would be interested in Phelps)
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 3:05 pm
If Nova is your hang up, then I don’t understand. His upside is very limited, and he will never even be half of what Ubaldo is right now.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 3:15 pm
Montero, Nova, and one of those doesn’t even get the conversation going.
Ubaldo Jimenez is an ace, who is 27, and under contract through 2013 with a player option for 2014. There is a fair amount of undervaluing going on here. You are talking about him like he is Francisco Liriano or something.
Nova is at best a number 4 contact pitcher (maybe a 3 in the NL). Should be in the deal he is a major league ready arm in the package, not as one of the top 2 pieces.
Warren/Noes/Phelps are pretty interchangeable, as nothing much more than near major league ready cost controlled arms. None of the above have huge upside in the rotation, and I don’t think Noesi is much more than a bullpen arm.
[Reply]
Peter Gammons says the Rockies are looking for “two prime prospects, along with one or two big league players, including a starting pitcher”.
[Reply]
Steve S. Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 4:26 pm
As well they should be. What their asking price is and what the final cost will be may be two very different things, but your Montero/B/Nova proposal sounds about right to me. Folks have to remember Montero’s stock is down, and he’s NOT a Catcher in this deal.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 4:32 pm
I think being a first baseman hurts him worse than his play this year. However I am not sure anyone we have ever discussed a trade with has considered him a catcher. He has proven his ability to hit, and I don’t think anyone is changing their minds much on his down the road potential in that department.
I would love to keep Banuelos, but if we can pry loose Ubaldo for Montero, Banuelos, Nova, and Warren/Phelps/Noesi/Laird/Adams I don’t see how Cashman can justify not doing it.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 4:47 pm
Let me ask you a question I asked Matt. If Ian Stewart is coming with Jimenez in the deal, how does that change what you are willing to give?
[Reply]
Steve S. Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 5:08 pm
It won’t be Stewart, it will be Wiggy. It was already reported that the Yanks have asked about him. If anything, Wiggy’s a spare part that could make the deal work a bit better from the Rockies side.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 5:10 pm
I just saw that haha. as I said below I would rather have Stewart in the longterm, but Wigginton is probably a better bet to cover Alex than Nunez, and certainly better than Pena. Though not when Nunez plays like he did today.
[Reply]
Take it for what it’s worth, but Jon Heyman is saying that Ty Wigginton’s name has come up in talks between the Rockies and Yankees for Ubaldo.
I would probably rather have Ian Stewart for the longterm, but a deal involving Jimenez and Wigginton would certainly make the Yankees a strong team for the stretch run.
[Reply]
SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman
rockies name price for ubaldo: montero, banuelos, betances & nova. nyy will do montero plus other pitchers (not those guys)
Sometimes I think Heyman reads message boards and makes shit like this up. If this is accurate, the two sides aren’t that far apart. They split the difference on one of the B’s, and the Yanks try to sub out Nova with Noesi/Phelps/Warren. Either way, the deal happens.
Let me amend that. The deal happens as long as Hank keeps his fat mouth shut.
[Reply]
[...] SI.com’s Jon Heyman says the Rockies and Yankees match up well in an article on SI.com. But of course, our readers knew that already. [...]
Wow,
First of all with the numbers Nova put up this yr in the american league, he would be at worst a number three starter in national league. Has anyone who loves Ubaldo really looked at his numbers this season in the national league? Now takes those numbers and add a run to his era in the american league. Is he now worth Montero, Banuelos, Betances and Nova? If anything he is worth Montero, Nova, and two other high end prospects not named Delin and Betances and Manny Banuelos.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 7:37 pm
Let’s stop with the add 1 run to his ERA, he is only a NL pitcher stuff.
Since June first Ubaldo has been a beast. 53.2 IP, 7.92 H/9, 8.28 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, with a 2.50 ERA. Which includes a 7 inning, 2 ER game against the Yankees, in Yankee stadium.
He’s also the best road pitcher in all of baseball.
55.1 IP, 42 Ks, 30 H, 20 BB, 1 HR, .158 BAA. on the road this season.
Ubaldo’s Lefty/Righty splits this season.
Vs lefties .251/.321/.432
Vs righties .235/.318/.346
Go watch Ubaldo start, and stop trying to act like Montero and Nova get the job done.
Also Nova would be at worst a number 3? Seriously? The man misses next to no bats, and he allows an incredible amount of base runners. Even in the NL Nova is at best a number 3 pitcher, and much more likely a number 4.
[Reply]
Montero, Noesi, Adams, Nova and Laird for Jiminez sounds fair to me as a Rockies fan.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 10:55 pm
You are a very, very generous Rockies fan! I think most of us would give you more.
[Reply]
Steve S. Reply:
July 18th, 2011 at 6:30 am
Smart fans tend to overbid, not wanting to look like their dopey brethren who look to rob the other side on every deal. But the final deals regularly come in lower than the initial asking prices and the online consensus.
A final deal that matches the one above wouldn’t surprise me one bit, especially since we’ve learned that there’s only 2 more years of team control. There’s a high end 1B prospect (Montero) 2 MLB ready pitchers (Nova/Noesi) and a 2B AND 3B solution. That potentially solves all their needs except CF and the bullpen, and we could throw in Whelan without blinking. I suspect the Rox will LOVE Nova and his ground ball tendencies.
[Reply]
Matt Imbrogno Reply:
July 18th, 2011 at 7:25 am
Sold.
[Reply]