It’s pretty rare that a top-flight pitcher who is signed to team-friendly contract for multiple years becomes available, as is the case with . The most common comp I’ve seen bandied about by the guys who do this stuff for a living has been the 07 deal. So I wanted to look at the two deals and see how they match up.
First, let’s look the focus of this deal in Haren and see how he matches up with Ubaldo, to see how comparable they are as pitchers.
Ubaldo Jimenez
Year Age Tm Lg IP GS R Rrep Rdef aLI RAR WAR Salary Awards 2006 22 COL NL 7.2 1 4 5 0 .8 1 0.1 2007 23 COL NL 82.0 15 46 48 5 .9 2 0.2 2008 24 COL NL 198.2 34 97 128 -4 1.0 31 3.1 392000 2009 25 COL NL 218.0 33 87 136 -1 1.1 49 5.1 750000 2010 26 COL NL 221.2 33 73 145 1 1.1 72 7.2 1250000 ASCYA-3MVP-23 2011 27 COL NL 110.1 18 57 77 -1 1.0 20 1.9
Dan Haren (up to 07)
Year Age Tm Lg IP GS R Rrep Rdef aLI RAR WAR Salary Awards 2003 22 STL NL 72.2 14 44 40 1 1.0 -4 -0.4 2004 23 STL NL 46.0 5 23 25 2 .8 2 0.1 2005 24 OAK AL 217.0 34 101 131 7 .9 30 2.9 323500 2006 25 OAK AL 223.0 34 109 146 -2 .9 37 3.6 550000 2007 26 OAK AL 222.2 34 91 141 -4 1.0 50 5.2 2250000 AS .
While the 2011 numbers for Ubaldo are incomplete (Fangraphs has Ubaldo at roughly a 5 win pace for 2011) they aren’t needed to show that Ubaldo is a significantly better pitcher than Dan Haren was at the same age. That 2010 season may have been a career year, but even assuming a 5 WAR seasonal average and he’s still ahead of Haren at a similar point of their careers. But 2010 did happen, and Jimenez proved himself to be one of the best pitchers on the planet, while Haren only showed that type of ability after he was traded in his 2 years with Arizona (12.6 WAR). It may even be fair to grade Jimenez on somewhat of a curve, pitching in Colorado and showing a significant career . Suffice to say Ubaldo’s the better pitcher at the time of the deal, so he should fetch more than Haren did.
Next, let’s look at the two players contracts and see how they match up. From Cots:
Dan Haren
- 4 years/$12.65M (2006-09), plus 2010 club option
- signed extension with Oakland 9/05
- acquired by Arizona in trade from Oakland 12/14/07
- $0.2M signing bonus
- 06:$0.5M, 07:$2.2M, 08:$4M, 09:$5.5M, 10:$6.75M club option ($0.25M buyout)
Ubaldo Jimenez
- 4 years/$10M (2009-12), plus 2013-14 club options
- signed extension with Colorado 1/27/09
- 09:$0.75M, 10:$1.25M, 11:$2.8M, 12:$4.2M, 13:$5.75M club option ($1M buyout), 14:$8M club option ($1M buyout)
- 2014 option only if 2013 option is exercised (may void 2014 if traded)
There hasn’t been much salary inflation in baseball over the past few years, so these numbers can be taken at face value. In Haren’s case, he was signed for 3 seasons after the deal. Jimenez is signed for 2 additional seasons, since he is a lock to decline that 8M for 2014 if traded. With Ubaldo you are also getting him for an additional one third of a season, since were talking about a midseason deadline deal and Haren was traded in December of 07. In Haren’s case there was 16.5 M remaining on his contract, with Ubaldo its just under 12M. Fangraphs has Ubaldo’s worth for this year alone projecting to be upwards of 20 mil, and over the past four seasons he’s been averaging about 23 mil per season. So along with the 1/3 of a season of production for this year, Ubaldo figures to give a team a whopping 53 mil worth of value at a cost of less than 12 mil for the remainder of his contract. In terms of prospects you have to come up with the difference, which is 41 mil worth of players. According to Victor Wang’s research, a top 10 hitting prospect is worth more than double that (23.72 WARP) over the 6 years of team control, which breaks down to 19.75M per year. A top 10 pitching prospect is worth approximately half that of a positional player. Since you’re buying 2.33 years of Jimenez, the Rockies would theoretically break even on the deal if they got back just Montero, who despite his down year has maintained his top 10 status in BPs midseason rankings. But of course, each deal is unique and every GM is looking for the other side to overpay as much as possible. Since the Rockies are in no rush to deal Jimenez, bidders will have to sweeten the pot to make a deal too good to pass up.
Finally, let’s look at the players stats and their BA rankings at the time of the Haren deal. Of course we’re all geniuses with the benefit of hindsight, but what did the deal look like at the time it was made? Here’s the 07 Haren deal from BR:
December 14, 2007: Traded by the Oakland Athletics with to the Arizona Diamondbacks for , , , , and .
Brett Anderson and Carlos Gonzalez appear to be the headliners, but at the time of the deal CarGo was the only player ranked in the BA top 100 (#18) and MLB ready. Brett Anderson was a highly thought of 19 year old, but was in his first year of pro ball that struggled in his first promotion to High A. In 07 Chris Carter was putting up nice numbers in A-ball, but showed an alarming strikeout tendency. Before the deal Cunningham was putting up nice numbers in AA, but like Carter was unranked in BA’s top 100. had written all over him in 07, and that forecast was correct. Leading up to the trade Greg Smith was an interesting but Lefty in AAA.
The only sure thing in the 07 Haren deal was Carlos Gonzalez. Not only that, but the D-Backs held on to the vast majority of their most coveted players. They kept (BA #9) Chris Young (BA #12) Miguel Montero (BA#63) (BA #82) and (BA #98). Again, Jimenez is better than Haren and should fetch more. But if the Haren deal is any guide then Montero, a Killer B, plus filler will be something of an overpay. The 07 Haren deal was a classic case of quantity over quality.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
Why not look solely at deals the Yankees made for aces and #2s?
The Yankees were not hurt by trading top prospects for Cone or trading Wells, Bush, and whoever the other guy was (I’m too lazy to look him up haha) for Clemens. If the Yanks traded for Mussina and Sabathia, not signed them, and Pettitte was reacquired via trade not re-signed the Yanks would most certainly not been hurt. Burnett, too, since he was the Jays’ #2 after his career-year 2008 the Yanks signed him for big money on.
Ace or #2 / World Series he helped them win / AL Pennants he helped them win
Cone / 1996-98, 2000 / None (the Yanks won every WS Cone was in with them)
Clemens / 1999-2000/ 2001, 2003
Aces and #2s signed or re-signed:
Mussina / None / 2001, 2003
Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte / 2009 / None (the Yanks won the only WS these three were in with them)
Yankee starting pitcher prospects who were World Series winning starters after being traded from the Yankees in the Steinbrenner on era:
Jose Rijo (1990 Reds)
Al Leiter (1997 Marlins, but it took him about a decade to be a premier starter)
‘Thing is, Rijo was traded to the As for prime Rickey Henderson 12/5/84 almost six years before he won a World Series with the Reds then traded from the As to the Reds 12/5/87, so the As gave up on him, too, and were stung badly by his 1990 World Series MVP performance against them.)
Leiter left the Blue Jays to sign with the Marlins.
So recent history shows the Yanks aren’t stung the worst way (top prospect starters winning a WS with teams the Yanks trade them to) very much if at all.
[Reply]
While Leiter pitched for the 1992-93 World Champion Toronto Blue Jays, he was solely a reliever in 1992 and made only a dozen starts in 1993. He wasn’t on the postseason roster for the 1992 team and he was awful in five relief appearances (no starts) in the 1993 postseason (3.38 ERA in 2 ALCS appearances, 7.71 ERA in 3 WS appearances.)
History shows the 1997 Marlins team he won it all with was a fluke and the classic, true World Series championship purchase and he was one of the mercenaries.
The Yanks traded Rijo for an eventual Hall Of Famer and the As traded Rijo, so I see that the As messing up than the Yanks. The Jays let go of Leiter but was he someone they really rued letting go?
Add Scott McGregor a Yankee farmhand who won it all with a team the Yanks traded him to in the Steinbrenner era (1983 Orioles.) He et.al. including Rick Dempsey was traded from the Yanks to the Orioles for Doyle Alexander et.al. in June 1976, over seven years before he (and Dempsey) won it all with the Orioles.
[Reply]
That ’76 trade for Doyle Alexander paid immediate dividends:
He went 10-5 with a 3.29 ERA, 5 complete games, and 2 shutouts in 19 starts (136 IP so he averaged over 7 IP/GS) for the 1976 Yankees and helped them get to their first World Series since 1964.
Yes, Baltimore won that deal with their ’79 AL pennant and ’83 WS title, but hey, it was 1976 and George wanted to go for it, so he did, and the Alexander trade helped put the Yanks back on the map.
Alexander sure stung the Yankees in ’85.
[Reply]
Considering the yanks don’t really have a highly sought after brett Anderson like player in the farm. Oh. Manny Banuelos is that guy. There is such a drop off in projectability after the killer Bs that the Rox would be nuts to lose Ubaldo and not land a high ceiling pitcher in return. Lets not forget Manny is only 20. He’s got a world of talent in that left arm but a lot could go wrong.
I just don’t see it happening without one of the Bs. Bc of Banuelos’s youth, I wonder if the Rox are ready to scrap demands for Nova to secure Montero and Banuelos.
[Reply]
I’m sure the majority of fans feel let down with Hughes’s struggles , but he’s still only 25. I’m not banking on Hughes to become the next mike mussina or David cone in pinstripes, but I think its fair to expect hughes to become a middle of the order guy. No shame in that.
Faith in Hughes’s future let’s me part with Banuelos.
[Reply]
Wow, check out Doyle Alexander’s September-October 1985 gamelog:
This guy was lights out September-October: FIVE complete games (yet only one shutout and three wins cuz he lost one and had a no-decision.)
Ah, October 5, 1985, a day that will live in infamy. Alexander spun a complete-game 5-hit, one earned run, no walks, no strikeouts 5-1 win over the Yankees, the season killer. How many complete games have been pitched where the starter didn’t walk or strikeout a batter? I’m guessing this complete game was the last one.
He stung the Yankees with his awful 1982-83 for them as well as this game.
[Reply]
Your ubaldo mania has hit a new high. There is one aspect of this thesis post comparing Harebell and Jimenez that is largely flawed. Harebell pitched five seasons in American league and has better career era. I know your gonna say Jimenez pitches on Coors field but its still the national league. Lastly three baseball writers came on WFAN today. All three stated the asking price Is way too high for Yanks and all three wonder why Jimenez is even available let alone whispers of potential shoulder injury and the fact that they do not think he is worth the asking price. I agree on all accounts.
[Reply]
While it is technically true that Anderson wasn’t rated at the time of the trade, using the 2007 prospect list is misleading, in that it ignores the 2007 season.
Really, the analysis should be done with the 2008 list, which would show Anderson as a top 40 prospect.
[Reply]