Open Thread: Ubaldo-mania in full effect

By Steve S. On July 17, 2011 · 87 Comments · In Open Threads

If you were waiting for the Ubaldo Jimenez trade talks to heat up, today was your day. Here’s a recap of today’s reports:

says the Rockies are “looking for two prime prospects, along with one or two big-league ready players, including a starting pitcher.”
SI.com’s Jon Heyman says the Rockies and Yankees match up well in an article on SI.com. But of course, our readers knew that already.
Heyman about Rockies 3B Ty Wigginton-”wigginton’s name came up in yankees-rox talk. could be good a-rod insurance”. The Rockies would probably like to move former 1st rounder Ian Stewart to 3B.
Buster Olney reports that with Jimenez’s inexpensive contract through 2013, there would be high production at a low cost for any team acquiring the right-hander, with team control and very little financial risk.
Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd told Troy Renck of the Denver Post that the Rockies would have to be “absolutely overwhelmed” to move Jimenez. Renck goes on to say “The Rockies aren’t shopping Jimenez. General manager Dan O’Dowd told me directly that he has no mandate to move money, that he’s not looking to sell.”
Jon Heyman had of the day, the first reported trade proposal-”rockies name price for ubaldo: montero, banuelos, betances & nova. nyy will do montero plus other pitchers (not those guys)”

Use this thread to kick around trade proposals, explain to your fellow commenters why their proposal makes no sense but yours is fabulous, or whatever else you want.

87 Responses to Open Thread: Ubaldo-mania in full effect

T.O. Chris says:

July 17, 2011 at 7:18 pm

I would love to get our hands on Ian Stewart. I would certainly be willing to up the ante in order to get Jimenez, and Ubaldo in one deal. Stewart could start at 3rd for Alex until he returns, and then possibly take over right field next year (if Swisher’s option is declined). Or he could DH if they do pick up Nick’s option.

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T.O. Chris says:

July 17, 2011 at 7:20 pm

Seems like you are late on the Banuelos start. It’s 6:18 here (7:18 New York time), and the Trenton game is already over.

Banuelos went 5.0 innings, allowed 5 hits, gave up 3 earned runs, walked an incredibly bad 5, and struck out 6. His complete and utter lack of control is really starting to scare me.

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Steve S. Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 7:23 pm

Hmmmm that’s weird. The link said “7:05 start” on it. I’ll correct that.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 7:40 pm

Too bad too, I was looking forward to watching him pitch. Though I guess it’s for the best, I’d rather not watch him walk 5 through 5.

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Billy15 says:

July 17, 2011 at 7:35 pm

Wow,
First of all with the numbers Nova put up this yr in the american league, he would be at worst a number three starter in national league. Has anyone who loves Ubaldo really looked at his numbers this season in the national league? Now takes those numbers and add a run to his era in the american league. Is he now worth Montero, Banuelos, Betances and Nova? If anything he is worth Montero, Nova, and two other high end prospects not named Delin and Betances and Manny Banuelos.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 7:41 pm

Let’s stop with the add 1 run to his ERA, he is only a NL pitcher stuff.

Since June first Ubaldo has been a beast. 53.2 IP, 7.92 H/9, 8.28 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, with a 2.50 ERA. Which includes a 7 inning, 2 ER game against the Yankees, in Yankee stadium.

He’s also the best road pitcher in all of baseball.
55.1 IP, 42 Ks, 30 H, 20 BB, 1 HR, .158 BAA. on the road this season.

Ubaldo’s Lefty/Righty splits this season.

Vs lefties .251/.321/.432
Vs righties .235/.318/.346

Go watch Ubaldo start, go by what you see. Let’s stop trying to act like Montero and Nova get the job done, Ubaldo is simply worth more than that. The man throws as hard 99 MPH in the 9th inning of games.

Also Nova would be at worst a number 3? Seriously? The man misses next to no bats, and he allows an incredible amount of base runners. Even in the NL Nova is at best a number 3 pitcher, and much more likely a number 4.

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Steve S. Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 7:45 pm

Check out Ubaldo’s Home/Road splits. If anything, he’d be BETTER getting away from Coors Field.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 8:05 pm

Home/Road splits for these last 3 years.

2011-
5.89 ERA, 55.0 IP, 42 K, 71 H, 23 BB, 7 HR, .314 BAA
2.50 ERA, 53.2 IP, 57 K, 30 H, 20 BB, 1 HR, .158 BAA

2010-
3.19 ERA, 101.2 IP, 96 Ks, 88 H, 38 BB, 4 HRs, .237 BAA
2.63 ERA, 120.0 IP, 118 Ks, 76 H, 54 BB, 6 HRs, .184 BAA

2009-
3.34 ERA, 102.1 IP, 86 K, 88 H, 40 BB, 7 HRs, .234 BAA
3.58 ERA, 115.2 IP, 112 K, 95 H, 45 BB, 6 HRs, .225 BAA

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Steve S. Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 8:22 pm

This year is likely a product of the slow start and a small skewed sample, but the rest of it is pretty pronounced. He should be able to repeat his overall #s in the AL.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 8:24 pm

In regards to the slow start, this is what Ubaldo had to say about his velocity this year.

“I didn’t pitch well early because of my thumb and groin (hip flexor) injury. I didn’t build up my arm strength in spring, so I didn’t have my velocity or breaking ball. That’s why I struggled. Right now, I feel like I can dominate again.”

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Mark D. says:

July 17, 2011 at 7:46 pm

The Rockies are starting high obviously because they are going to have to lower their demand and wanted a ridiculous starting point hoping to maximize value for Jimenez. I would be willing to trade Betances more willingly than Banuelos, Warren, Nova, and Brett Marshall. In this trade they would immediate talent Nova and Warren, and Banuelos is about a year away, and Brett Marshall barring injuries is on pace to reach the majors in two. It is going to be tough to trade two of their top prospects for Jimenez, but I think he’ll do great with Larry Rothschild as the pitching coach away from Colorado’s ballpark. His home/road splits are glaring this year.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 7:54 pm

I’m sorry, I don’t quite understand. Are you saying you don’t want to trade Warren, Nova, and Brett Marshall. or those are the guys you want to trade? It’s probably me just not reading it correctly.

Thanks in advance for the clarification.

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Mark D. Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 8:16 pm

willing to trade those guys

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 8:18 pm

So that would be a package of Betances, Warren, Nova, and Brett Marshall, with no Montero? Or you would be willing to put those guys in with Montero and Betances?

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Mark D. Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 8:41 pm

The problem I see is giving up Montero and Betances is alot if you include Warren, Nova, and Marshall. The Rockies might have to add something to balance this trade out I believe like adding Ty Wiggington. The thing is that I would then would want to keep Brett Marshall because I feel he could be a better version of Trevor Cahill adding more strikeouts with an impressive groundball rate. He for me would be a deal breaker for the Yankees. His scouting reports on his repertoire are good, and can be a top prospect for the Yankees when this year is all said and done.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 8:47 pm

I believe Cashman will be asking for Ty, or Ian Stewart in any deal.

There is no way this deal gets done without Montero, and Betances or Banuelos. After that it’s simply who you would or wouldn’t add.

If I had to venture a guess, if this happens it ends up being a 4 for 2 player deal.

I like Nova as a league average starter, but he is nothing really special, and to me he has to be in the deal as one of our only major league ready arms. Because of that I would be willing to do Montero, Banuelos/Betances, Nova, and Warren/Phelps/Noesi/Marshall for Ubaldo and Wigginton/Stewart.

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Mark D. Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 8:55 pm

I feel Marshall is more valuable to the Yankees than Phelps/Noesi/Warren, since Marshall has a much higher ceiling than those guys. A six player deal between the two teams I can see as very likely to happen. If the Yankees have to give up both Betances/Banuelos and Montero, with Nova, than I can’t see them adding Marshall to the deal. It is more likely they make the package with Montero, Betances or Banuelos, Nova and a pitching prospect that has 4th/5th starter potential. This could a big trade for the Yankees, something that hasn’t occurred during the season in a little while.
T.O. Chris says:

July 17, 2011 at 7:52 pm

Anyone trying to act like Ubaldo isn’t at the least an above average number 2 starter is fooling themselves.

3.47 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 3.59 xFIP, 5.7 WAR, 8.17 K/9, 3.51 BB/9, 0.54 HR/9, 52.5 GB%
2.88 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, 6.3 WAR, 8.69 K/9, 3.74 BB/9, 0.41 HR/9, 48.8 GB%
4.08 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 3.59 xFIP, 2.4 WAR, 8.08 K/9, 3.51 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9, 46.5 GB%

Even with his velocity down to start the season he still has an FIP in line with his last 2 seasons, and the exact xFIP as last year. Add into the fact that he pitches in an environment even more hitter friendly than Yankee stadium, and it makes what he has done even more impressive.

The fact that he limits home runs, and gets such good ground ball percentages for someone with his kind of swing and miss stuff only adds to his value.

Not to mention he is only 27 years old, not even his physical prime yet, and he is only going to get better from here.

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Professor Longnose says:

July 17, 2011 at 7:59 pm

Red Sox vs Rays on ESPN. I know it helps the Yankees make the playoffs if the Rays lose, but I can’t bring myself to root for the Red Sox.

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Joe says:

July 17, 2011 at 8:00 pm

I would rather have either Sanchez or Nolasco from FLA than Jimenez, I dont want to give up all of that just to find out he cant make it in the AL EAST!

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 8:06 pm

So you would rather have two other pitchers with less stuff, who pitch in the NL. One of which who has a major shoulder injury (surgery) history? How does that make sense? Have they already proven they can make it in the AL East? Sanchez alone is way less proven than Jimenez in the NL (596 innings to 838 innings), and has had 2 surgeries already. One shoulder, and one elbow.

I have a feeling most of you have never watched Jimenez pitch, or at the very least haven’t seen more than one or two games.

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Steve S. says:

July 17, 2011 at 8:11 pm

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/search?q=Ubaldo+Jimenez

Good tidbit I just picked up. The 2014 option can be voided by Jimienez if he’s traded. So he’s controlled for TWO years after 2011, not three. That lowers his trade value some.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 8:13 pm

Isn’t it a club option for 2013, and a player option for 2014?

EDIT: That means it is 2 club options, and the second club option can be voided. I always heard it was 1 club, and 1 player.

Nice catch.

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T.O. Chris says:

July 17, 2011 at 8:20 pm

I heard today that Clay Buchholz’s back is feeling no better, and even though he has had a shot he still has no timetable for return. With Lackey performing badly, and Buchholz out for an indefinite period of time, the Sox are hurting for starting pitching as well.

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Steve S. Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 8:24 pm

Their farm system sucks, they don’t have the prospect currency to bid for Jinenez. They’re shopping at K-Mart, we’re shopping at Tiffany’s.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 8:39 pm

I never insinuated they were going for Jimenez. Or at least didn’t mean too. I simply meant they are also on the market for pitching, and if we can acquire Ubaldo we have a good chance to pass them up.

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Billy15 says:

July 17, 2011 at 8:26 pm

well based on having control for the two years, that changes allot. And yes Chris I’ve seen him pitch quite a few times in fact. Actually look at his numbers broken down last year and this year. Last year his era was 5.00 in first two months, than he pitched lights out from july to august, than he pitched avg at best down stretch. A bit inconsistent. This year his era is over 4. I know your gonna say he’s pitched lights out over last five starts but he has been inconsistent. I know Chris you love the fact that he only let up two runs in Yankee stadium. I can name you a few dozen pitchers the yankees faced for the first time that shut them out. If you don’t buy the national league takes away a run from your era just look at the numerous upon numerous examples of pitchers pitching better in the national league. I mean for pete’s sake Ian kennedy is a virtual star and Karsten’s in the ace on pittsburgh staff. The league’s are different, it’s a fact. Ubaldo also has a jerky delivery and there has been speculation, even on mld network that there is concern of future arm issues based on that delivery. So noooo, I’m not willing to trade more than Montero, Nova (who I think is a young kid with a live arm that will pitch really well after seasoning more in the NL) warren, Noesi. that’s who I give up and if it’s not enough than so be it. I refuse to risk trading three top studs for a guy with a jery motion who has been said to have attitude problems as well.

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Steve S. Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 8:31 pm

You get a top flight 27 year old pitcher for 12 mil over the next 2 1/3 years. He make the Yanks the odds-on favorite to get to the WS this year, and if he blows out his arm tomorrow it’s only 12 mil.

You can’t tell me you want the Yanks to go through growing pains with rookies (who could also blow out their arm tomorrow) rather than take a sure thing and win now. That’s not how the Yanks operate.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 8:40 pm

I also really don’t see him having anymore likelihood of arm injury than anyone else who throws a ball 100 times a game, every 5 days. He has never really had any kind of arm problems to speak of that would raise a red flag.

Anyone saying he has a good chance of injury is really just throwing out guesses, and that could be done with any pitcher in baseball.

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Steve S. Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 10:20 pm

Exactly, well said.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 8:37 pm

Yes you can boil my entire love for Jimenez down to him pitching 7 good innings against the Yankees. That’s sort of short sighted don’t you think? I would never make my opinions based on one start, good or bad.

I do buy that the NL lowers your ERA, but Jimenez isn’t just another NL pitcher. He pitches in the most hitter friendly park in baseball, something no other NL pitcher has to do deal with.

Trying to compare Jimenez, a guy who averages 95-96 MPH on his fastball to Ian Kennedy and Jeff Karstens (two guys who average 90 MPH) is a little ridiculous don’t you think?

MLB network said it, it must be gospel. I’m not trying to insult you, but that network is pretty awful. I’m not taking it to the bank because Mitch Williams, Harold Reynolds, Greg Amsinger, or whoever on that network said it.

How can you call them top studs, they have never played major league ball? In fact in Banuelos’ and Betances’ case they have never pitched above double A, and have struggled not to walk 5 batters per 9 innings doing so.

Ubaldo is an ace now, for all we know both of them could end up as relievers, they both have several stumbling blocks that could make that reality. It’s find to love our prospects, but let’s not act like they both don’t have huge question marks.

Nova has proven himself to be a solid major league pitcher, but he isn’t suddenly going to become anything more than a sinker baller, who doesn’t miss many bats. He has value for what he is, but I am afraid many Yankee fans are overrating his potential.

I really don’t get the “jerky” motion stuff. Sure he drops his arm dowm, then pauses before his delivery. But it’s not something I would describe as herky jerky really. It’s just something that can cause his delivery to be somewhat hard to repeat the same way every time.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 9:00 pm

As far as his inconsistency goes last year, I think this is somewhat overblown. If you look at his ability to hold down batters he really only had two off months.

April- 34.1 IP, .186 BAA
May- 46.1 IP, .160 BAA
June- 32.2 IP, .264 BAA
July- 28.1 IP, .210 BAA
August- 35.0 IP, .240 BAA
September- 37.1 IP, .223 BAA

In the entire year he only had an opposing batting average above .220 twice. In a 6 month season, I would say that is pretty dominant.

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T.O. Chris says:

July 17, 2011 at 8:43 pm

Reading anything baseball related out Colorado these days, and it sounds like beat writers are writing specifically to beg O’Dowd not to trade him. haha.

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Duh, Innings! says:

July 17, 2011 at 9:10 pm

Montero, Betances, Banuelos, and Nova for Jimenez? Fuck that!!!

I’m rooting for Boston to win tonight so the Yanks can be in position to be the 5.5, 7.5 or 9.5 games up on TB after Thursday.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 9:29 pm

It’s just gamesmanship. Any negotiation should always start out above what you are willing to accept.

I can’t do it. I hate Boston, and I would rather play for the division.

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Duh, Innings! Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 9:40 pm

Sometimes it’s gamesmanship, sometimes it’s not e.g. Arizona wanting Soriano AND Johnson and I think even more for Randy Johnson. I hope it’s gamesmanship.

I’m rooting for Boston to win tonight because if they do the Yankees are 5.5. games ahead of Tampa Bay going into TB tomorrow night. My thinking is build as big a wildcard lead as you can while going for the division in case you don’t win the division. You have to play for both, the division more than the wildcard. Let Boston help us before they get zinged hahaha.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 9:53 pm

It could simply be the case of them not wanting to trade him, and making outrages demands, yes.

I understand the logic, but I still can’t do it. I follow Boomer’s logic. Play for the division at all cost, until the division is lost completely. If you constantly shoot for the division, the wild card should always be there.

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Duh, Innings! Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 10:01 pm

The Yanks can and should shoot for both. Playoffs, bottom line.

Sabathia is drawing Verlander, Tomlin, The Good Weaver, Ugando/Wilson, or Price/Shields in Game 1 of the ALDS, if you think the Chi-Sox, As, and Twins won’t win the wildcard (I don’t think any of them will.)

I will say I don’t want the Yanks to win the wildcard cuz if they do they begin every postseason series on the road.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 10:17 pm

It’s not as likely, but there is always a chance the Yanks get into a real dog fight with the Rays for the Wild Card. In which case Sabathia may have to be burned getting into the playoffs. That would leave Burnett or Hughes starting game, and Sabathia in game 2.

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Duh, Innings! Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 11:06 pm

Dude division or wildcard who gives a fuck? Wildcard teams have won plenty of World Series in recent times.

Fuck burning Sabathia. Go for what enables him to start Games 1 and 5 in the ALDS. The only way he should be burned is a one-game playoff to make the postseason, that’s it, and that’s debatable because Burnett is making $16.5M to be the #2 and the Yanks have a better chance to win it all with him starting Game 163 and CC starting Games 1 and 5 in the ALDS, 3 and 7 in the ALCS, and 3 and 7 in the WS than any other arrangement with CC. Someone besides CC will have to step up in October. Anyone who cries “CC should’ve started Game 163!!!” oh shut up. And you wanted Burnett starting Games 1 and 5 of the ALDS or Burnett Game 1 and CC just Game 5?

The Yanks could win the division and still play on the road all postseason if they draw say Detroit and Texas and both have better regular season records.

Realistically, I think the Yankees would have HFA for at least the ALDS or the ALCS if they won the division which is why I want them to win it, but winning the division title is overrated. It’s meaningless if the Yanks draw Boston in the ALCS because Boston has shown they can win at Yankee Stadium in the postseason, see Games 6 and 7 of the 2004 ALCS and 2011. Do you honestly see Texas, L.A., Cleveland, or Detroit knocking Boston out of the first round? I don’t. And do you see Sabathia vs. Beckett in Games 3 and 7 being easier for the Yankees to win if Game 7 was in NY? I don’t. Beckett closed out the 2003 WS there against Pettitte.

It’s also meaningless in this year’s WS cuz it begins in the NL park which means no DH for up to 4 games and definitely no DH for Game 7.

Duh, Innings! Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 9:54 pm

Correction: Arizona wanting Soriano and Johnson for Schilling before trading him to Boston for Fossum and a bag of balls.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 10:01 pm

I never understood that trade, or their logic behind it.

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Duh, Innings! Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 10:16 pm

I call it “trade collusion”.

Like at least two teams collude to not pay a player what he wants, these two fuckers (D-bax and Sox) colluded to keep Schilling from going to the Yankees and stick it to the Yankees. What better way to do both than Arizona trading Schilling to Boston for shit?

Joe Garagiola Jr. hated the Yankees, specifically George, because George fired his father from the Yankees tv booth. Add to that George got David Wells to sign with the Yankees after Wells had a handshake deal with Garagiola Jr. to sign with Arizona before the 2002 season, and there you have why Garagiola Jr. took a shit package for Schilling from Boston but wanted the sun, the moon, and the stars from the Yankees for Schilling.

One could make a strong case for teams sticking it to the Yankees by making the Red Sox stronger.

Montreal is fleeced in the Wetteland trade, so they trade Pedro to Boston who uses a former Yankees prospect (Tony Armas Jr.) as a piece to get him. Armas Jr. to BOSTON for Mike Stanley, oof. That could very well be the worst trade of the 1996 on era. Utterly stupid, to trade with Boston.

Florida beats the Yankees in the 2003 World Series, so they stick it to the Yankees some more by trading Beckett to Boston.

San Diego has their ass handed to them by the Yankees in the 1998 World Series, so they trade their star player Adrian Gonzalez to Boston.

I’m having fun here with the last three teams, but I firmly believe some shady shit went down with the Schilling trade in lieu of what Arizona wanted for him from the Yankees. It is odd that every team the Yankees have stuck it to in some way since the mid-1990s deals a very good or great player to Boston.

I bet Atlanta trades Juergens to Boston for Bucholz, Ellsbury, and shit at some point hahaha – ????

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 10:21 pm

I wouldn’t go as far to use the word collusion, but I don’t doubt teams have some wariness when trading with the Yankees because of the history of winning. You don’t win 27 titles without stepping on some toes. At the time the Red Sox hadn’t won like they have now, so teams could’ve been more willing to deal with the Sox. We also did get beat by the Diamondbacks in the world series not long before.

Duh, Innings! Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 10:37 pm

So why ask for the Yankees farm system jewels (or at least the farm system jewel in Soriano and a highly touted f.s. product in Johnson) for Schilling but take shit from Boston? That trade was total stick it to the Yankees bullshit.

What would the D-backs care if Schilling went to Boston? They already beat the Yankees in the 2001 World Series with Schilling’s help. I wonder if that fucker had a list of teams he didn’t want to go and the Yanks were on the list, I bet they were, and if so that could’ve been part of the reason if not the main reason why he didn’t go to the Yanks.
Duh, Innings! says:

July 17, 2011 at 9:51 pm

Assuming the Yanks and Red Sox make the playoffs, who do the Yankees draw in the first round if the Yankees are the division winner? The wildcard?

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Simon Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 10:04 pm

I would believe the Yankees would play the Central Division winner in the ALDS, although I could be wrong.

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T.O. Chris says:

July 17, 2011 at 10:06 pm

I read Andrew Marchand say that Hughes performing well could making trade for Ubaldo not necessary. I don’t think trades should be mae that way. Either they like him, and want him, or they don’t. How Hughes does in a few starts shouldn’t have a bearing on the value they place on Jimenez.

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Professor Longnose says:

July 17, 2011 at 10:16 pm

One heck of a pitching duel going on between Beckett and Niemann in Tampa. 0-0, three hits for both teams combined going into the 8th.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 10:19 pm

Beckett would bust off his best start in weeks as soon as I trade him.

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T.O. Chris says:

July 17, 2011 at 10:26 pm

This is as good a thread as any for this subject. I would be interested to know what peoples thought’s are on Banuelos and Betances’s futures.

This whole Jimenez thing has really helped me see just how valued these two guys are by our fans. It seems like everyone I run into on the subject has both of them pegged as top of the rotation starters, and while I agree that they have that upside I don’t think that is the most likely outcome. I believe it is just as likely that they both end up in the pen, as they both end up as top end starters.

I think the most likely outcome however is that one makes it in the rotation in some way, and one ends up moved to the bullpen for one reason or another. I’m not sure which is more likely to which at this point, because I’ve always been more partial to Banuelos. Though his lack of control has surprised me this year. I still lean more towards Manny, but I don’t think it’s as far a lean as it once was.

Given the state of current events going on, it seems like a good time for this discussion. Thoughts?

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Scout Reply:
July 18th, 2011 at 9:25 am

Fans of a team almost always overvalue its prospects, a tendency to which the organization itself is sometimes prone. Few Yankee fans have seen Betances or Banuelos pitch, except for the occasional glimpse in the spring or in an all-star gain. We read the glowing reports from the outside observers like Keith Law, but that still gives us a very limited data base on which to form a judgment. This overvaluing of assets has become even more pronounced today when the Internet gives us so much more information, much of it of dubious quality.

All this is by way of approaching your question. I freely admit I don’t know what to make of these two prospects. It is highly unlikely both will succeed as front-line pitchers, and I would be surprised if either one turned out as good as Jiminez.

One other factor to weigh is the “opportunity cost” of dealing three of the organization’s top five prospects in one deal. If you do that, you have fewer assets available down the road to meet other needs that might arise.

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Professor Longnose says:

July 17, 2011 at 10:32 pm

A pop up hit the catwalk at the Trop and broke a lightbulb. There’s glass on the field.

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Mark D. says:

July 17, 2011 at 10:35 pm

To get Jimenez, the Yankees are going to have to give up Betances or Banuelos, and Montero. They would have to add Nova as well with a 4th/5th starter ceiling. Jimenez’s contact is very cheap and he is currently 27. He is entering his prime and the Yankees would have those years for cheap. If he continues to pitch the way he has recently, it would be a trade that would benefit both teams, Yankees short term and the Rockies long term. Jimenez is a special talent and can help contribute this year and the next few. He has frontline stuff, and with the way the pitching market is looking, this could be the best way to bolster our pitching staff for the coming years. If Jimenez was acquired, then you have him being a reliable No. 2 pitcher for the Yankees behind Sabathia. If Phil Hughes return is legit and A.J. Burnett finds some consistency, then you would have to look at the Yankees as the favorites to win it all.

This trade isn’t just for this year either. With Jimenez being 27, he could be a cost effective ace for the Yankees behind CC. Although the price is high for Jimenez, it is well worth the risk with his pitching repertoire. This is a very difficult choice for the Yankees, but they will have to consider any option that would help bolster their pitching staff.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 10:39 pm

You have to assume the Yankees will re-sign Sabathia to another 6-7 year deal once he opts out at the end of the season. If this is the case, and you trade for Jimenez you end up with one of the 2 or 3 best 1-2 punches in baseball for the next 4-7 years. Depending on how Sabathia holds up. To me this is reason enough alone to do the deal.

For the next two years alone the Yankees would go into each season knowing they had Sabathia, Jimenez, Burnett, and Hughes locked up as the 1-4 in their rotation.

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Mark D. Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 10:40 pm

Resigning CC was implied in the comments above obviously.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 10:42 pm

I understood. Just stating the obvious, while agreeing.

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T.O. Chris says:

July 17, 2011 at 10:48 pm

That’s the kyle Farnsworth I knew in New York.

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billyball15 says:

July 17, 2011 at 10:50 pm

My assessment of Manny banuelos is he becomes a top end lefty starter somewhere between a Jimmy key and Johann santanna. He’s a lefty. You don’t trade leftyd. Watching dellin betances pitch a few games in spring training and you see this Kidd has overpowering stuff with a real good curve and ok change. I see big time stuff. I don’t trade either pitcher. Even though I can’t wait to see Jesus montero hit in majors and hear he is compared to Miguel Cabrera with bat I trade him based on not having a position and he can be replaced. But his bat alone will make him an all star one day and Yankee fans upset we traded him.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 10:59 pm

The Miguel Cabrera comparison is really not that close. That is over hyping by the Yankees fan base, and the media. He’s much closer to a Carlos Lee type of bat. Miguel is probably the best right handed bat in baseball, I don’t see Montero as that.

The thing with Betances is that his control is always going to be a problem. At his frame size, repeating his delivery will never be an easy task. I can comfortably trade him knowing that while he has tremendous upside, I don’t see him ever fully realizing it.

I agree with you on Banuelos, he is the type of arm I would try and hang onto at all costs. But if we keep Betances, and we get Jimenez I would trade Banuelos since I don’t see him ever becoming as good as Ubaldo.

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T.O. Chris says:

July 17, 2011 at 11:06 pm

Lee’s best seasons…

.305/.366/.525, .379 wOBA, 31 HRs, 8.2 % BB rate, 13.1 % K rate.
.300/.355/.540, .379 wOBA, 37 HRs, 8.3 % BB rate, 9.4 % K rate.
.303/.354/.528, .370 wOBA, 32 HRs, 7.6 % BB rate, 9.0 % K rate.
.314/.368/.569, .396 wOBA, 28 HRs, 7.7 % BB rate, 10.2 % K rate.

If Montero puts up 4 seasons like that I would be very happy.

Montero has always been called a .300, and 30 guy, which is what Lee has been. comparing him to Miguel Cabrera I think is quite far fetched. Cabrera is a step up from these numbers.

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T.O. Chris says:

July 17, 2011 at 11:09 pm

“Dude division or wildcard who gives a fuck? Wildcard teams have won plenty of World Series in recent times.

Fuck burning Sabathia. Go for what enables him to start Games 1 and 5 in the ALDS. The only way he should be burned is a one-game playoff to make the postseason, that’s it, and that’s debatable because Burnett is making $16.5M to be the #2 and the Yanks have a better chance to win it all with him starting Game 163 and CC starting Games 1 and 5 in the ALDS, 3 and 7 in the ALCS, and 3 and 7 in the WS. Someone besides CC will have to step up in October. Anyone who cries “CC should’ve started Game 163!!!” oh shut up. And you wanted Burnett starting Games 1 and 5 of the ALDS or Burnett Game 1 and CC just Game 5?

The Yanks could win the division and still play on the road all postseason if they draw say Detroit and Texas and both have better regular season records.

Realistically, I think the Yankees would have HFA for at least the ALDS or the ALCS if they won the division which is why I want them to win it, but winning the division title is overrated. It’s meaningless if the Yanks draw Boston in the ALCS because Boston has shown they can win at Yankee Stadium in the postseason, see Games 6 and 7 of the 2004 ALCS and 2011. Do you honestly see Texas, L.A., Cleveland, or Detroit knocking Boston out of the first round? I don’t. And do you see Sabathia vs. Beckett in Games 3 and 7 being easier for the Yankees to win if Game 7 was in NY? I don’t. Beckett closed out the 2003 WS there against a younger, better Pettitte.

It’s also meaningless in this year’s WS cuz it begins in the NL park which means no DH for up to 4 games and definitely no DH for Game 7.”
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You missed the point. I meant we could be in a scenario where the Red Sox win the division and we end up in a dog fight for the Wild Card with the Rays. In other words if we don’t burn CC we don’t make the playoffs. I said it isn’t likely, but it isn’t out of the question.

Could we tone down the cursing some please? It doesn’t make the point any clearer, and I am very positive kids come on this site. I don’t have a problem with it persnally, but you never know who you might offend. Not trying to start anything, just asking politely.

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Duh, Innings! Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 11:45 pm

Um, you missed my point which prevents a “dogfight with the Rays” you’re too dense or caught up in having to be right every post to see which is this threefold:

1 The more distance the Yankees put between themselves and the Rays, the less likely a “dogfight with the Rays” for the wildcard will ensue. If Boston wins tonight and the Yankees sweep TB, the Yanks are 9.5 games up on TB with only 65 games left for the Yankees to play. The Yankees are postseason-bound i.e. I cannot see them blowing a 9.5 game lead with 65 LTP. Next task is winning the division. They could overtake the division with this sweep of TB if Boston plays poorly enough.

2 The Yankees can still go for the division as they build their wildcard lead. The bigger the wildcard lead, the less pressure you have to make the postseason, the better you play for the division.

3. MAKE THE POSTSEASON.

You are imagining too much re: CC. Chill.

Straight up, if it came down to Yanks vs. Rays in Game 163 and either CC or AJ could start, I chose AJ because I’d rather have CC for two starts a postseason series if necessary than maybe no starts. If you start CC in Game 163, you lose him for Games 1 and 2 in the ALDS. If you start him in Game 2, you lose him for Game 5 on normal rest as Games 3-5 are played in only four days, so short rest for Game 5 thus an injury-risk. If you start him in Game 3 or 4, you lose him for Game 5. So, AJ gets the ball in Game 163, gives the Yankees six serviceable innings like he is capable of, then Robertson/Soriano/Rivera 7th/8th/9th. Btw CC could start Game 163 vs. Price or Shields, it could be 0-0 in the bottom of the 9th at TB if TB wins the season series and either CC or Mo could serve up a walkoff, season-killing solo shot, and it would be 10X more brutal a loss than any AJ-started loss could be.

Don’t tell me how to post on here and I could care less who I offend if anyone. If YankeeAnalysts.com don’t like how I post they can either delete the curses or ban me. I doubt some kid will see fuck, fucker, etc. and not know what it is and if he/she doesn’t know what it is, I doubt he/she will ask Mom or Dad what the words mean from my posts, c’mon. I know, I’m the only one on here who curses, so what? There’s ALOT worse elsewhere.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 11:59 pm

I didn’t tell you to do anything, I asked. You refused, and I really can’t understand your hostile response.

You have no people skills at all, you resort to belittling at the slightest hint of anything you don’t agree with.

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Matt Warden Reply:
July 18th, 2011 at 7:58 am

Actually Duh,Innings!, I would very much appreciate you toning it down a bit as well. Everyone is entitled to an opinion and there is no need for hositility.

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Simon says:

July 17, 2011 at 11:32 pm

Farnsworth actually didnt pitch that bad tonight for the Rays…..wish I could have said that 5-6 years ago.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 11:34 pm

He has been frustratingly good this year. An ERA under 2, and 18 saves. I guess pitching in front of 5 people in the Trop doesn’t affect him like Yankee stadium did.

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Simon Reply:
July 17th, 2011 at 11:38 pm

The only thing I liked about Farnsworth was hoping he would start a fight with someone, dude is a damn tank! I remember seeing somewhere where he got into a brawl and absolutely mauled this guy on the field, i’ve been searching for the video ever since. When I say mauled, I mean this guy took some serious damage!

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T.O. Chris says:

July 17, 2011 at 11:35 pm

Wow. What a catch!

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Eric Schultz says:

July 17, 2011 at 11:44 pm

Hell of a game. Hopefully it goes 20 and they burn all their pitchers.

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billyball15 says:

July 18, 2011 at 12:04 am

Funny thing. Delin and king Felix are both big pictures in same mold. King Felix also had control issues at one point in his development. You don’t give up an arm like betances with montero with two more prospects for ubaldo Jimenez. Just listening to mark feinsand and he agrees 100%.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 18th, 2011 at 12:15 am

Felix Hernandez is 6’3, Dellin is 6’8. This makes his mechanics much more easily repeatable. Felix never walked more than 3.9 batters per 9 in any level of the minor leagues, and was 17 at the time he did so. Making it to the majors at 19. Dellin is currently walking 4.8 batters per 9 and is 23 in double A.

Ubaldo Jimenez is in my opinion better than Betances’ upside, and at the very best his completed upside all the way to the fullest. I honestly don’t think Dellin is comparable to Felix Hernandez at all.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 18th, 2011 at 12:27 am

I think I should clarify that I see Betances in the AJ Burnett mold. With his ultimate potential being somewhere between Burnett and Beckett, but I don’t see him ever reaching the tip top of his potential in that mold. Instead settling somewhere in the middle of his potential, held back by his career lack of control. That’s just how I envision him developing.

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Reggie C. Reply:
July 18th, 2011 at 12:34 am

For someone walking 4.8 batters per 9 at AA, Betances has shown and executed his arsenal to a tee. Double A hitters (who dont walk) haven’t hit Betances. I’d love to see Betances get the promotion to Scranton. He’s 23 which though isn’t old for AA, makes me want the org to push him slightly harder than what is going on.

It just sucks that Betances doesnt yet have 100 innings at this level. He only threw 85 last year. At least he’s healthy and pitching rather well. I just hope the Scranton promotion is in the works.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 18th, 2011 at 12:54 am

I’m sure they are worried about promoting him too soon, and possibly hampering some of the positive work they’ve done. I have no way to know what they are thinking, but imagine they would like him to show better control before a promotion. As you said double A batters don’t work counts well, and he still walks close to 5 per 9. That could turn ugly at Scranton. But I agree with you, I really want to see how he reacts to batters with better bat control, and strkezone awareness. Triple A should give a much better idea of where he is in his development.

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Reggie C. says:

July 18, 2011 at 12:24 am

The price is steep but if the Rox are game, then negotiating it “down” to Montero, Betances, Nova, and Warren lies in the realm of possibility.

My package offers two big league ready players in Montero and Nova. Betances offers some intriguing projection as a potential 2/3 starter, and if he gets those walks down, we’re talking about a 2-guy AT LEAST. Warren offers some SP depth and he’s a contender to make the SP rotation next season.

This is a quality package. Banuelos stays in the farm to hone his craft another season. Given his age, I would say the Rox would want him included, but given Ubaldo Jimenez’s own set of “issues” (correctable as it may be), including Banuelos just screams OVERKILL.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 18th, 2011 at 12:30 am

That’s the interesting dichotomy with Betances. His potential is high, but he strikes me as the type of guy who will always be fighting his control problems, partly because of his size. He is a very interesting prospect because I think his final product could be anything from a closer, all the way up to an ace, and everything in between. That’s what makes his evaluation by the Yankees so important.

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billyball15 says:

July 18, 2011 at 12:44 am

Betances has overpowering stuff. Maybe you are right in that he will be more like AJ Burnett. But his ceiling is so high that he is worth risk and to say he will never be Jimenez is in my opinion over hyping Jimenez. Jimenez just as mark feinsand stated is not the guy you back up the truck and give up two of your top three prospects for. You do that for king Felix Clayton kershaw Josh Johnson when healthy. I just don’t put Jimenez in that class. Neither does colorodo if they are considering trading him.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 18th, 2011 at 1:02 am

Betances is a big righty with control problems who sits in the 93 MPH range, and can dial it up to 96-97. Jimenez is a bug righy with less control problems who when right averages 95-96 and dials it up to 99. I think it’s safe to say Jimenez is a level above Betances. Betances is a good prospect, but at the very best Dellin is Ubaldo one day, and I don’t think he is that. So in that instance I can part with him.

Nobody should be untouchable, especially not prospects in double A. I believe in Ubaldo Jimenez, and in my opinion you are highly underrating Ubaldo. You talk about him like he is a number 3-2 pitcher, but he is clearly an ace who is only 27. He has the stuff comparable to a Justin Verlander, and with a little more time could become something along those lines.

Kershaw, and Felix are not being traded in the next 2 years+, and I have moved on from Johnson after yet another shoulder injury. Any pitcher with shoulder injuries this severe in back to back years should be avoided in my opinion. Jimenez may not be in that group, but he is right below it.

I just feel we have a tendency to over value our own prospects, especially Yankee fans because they come along so rarely.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 18th, 2011 at 1:29 am

I just realized who Mark Feinsand is. I don’t care for him much, so if he disagrees with trading for Jimenez it doesn’t make me re-consider one bit.

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Rafa says:

July 18, 2011 at 4:29 am

Ubaldo Jimenez is a highly overrated pitcher. He walks WAY too many hitters (always 3.5+/9IP). His best stat is the low HR/9, but it’s because of his unsustainably low HR/FB rate. He simply will not maintain a 7% HR/FB rate. And when he starts giving up more homers, those high walk rates are going to destroy him.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 18th, 2011 at 11:47 am

Why would he not be able to maintain his current home run rates when he pitches in the most home run friendly park in baseball? This isn’t some extremely small sample size, and he isn’t a fly ball pitcher getting lucky. He has always been a pitcher who K’s a ton of batters, and gets great ground ball rates. He should consistently stay where he is career wise for home runs.

He’s also only 27, and because of that his walk rates should either stay the same or decrease. He hasn’t yet reach the full extent of his potential, this isn’t some 32 year old finished project.

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Dismortologist says:

July 18, 2011 at 9:53 am

On trading Banuelos… Let’s see, we’ve got 4 or 5 very young lower level piching prospects with supposed high ceilings that are being hyped as potential big leaguers: Morton, Rutszki, Encinas, DeLuca, Marshall among others… these guys are encountering all kinds of problems as they develop & move through the system… They are young so that’s expected, right?

Banuelos is a AA pitcher who KNOWS how to pich, has 3 plus or above average pitches AND he is approximately the SAME AGE as these guys. They can have Betances, Montero and Nova plus whatever, I’m keeping Banuelos.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 18th, 2011 at 11:51 am

He may know how to pitch, but he also has very little idea where the ball is going, and is walking more batters than Betances with less electric stuff. In 84 innings he has a 4.82 BB/9 ratio, and a 3.64 ERA/3.90 FIP. He has tremendous upside, but lets not act as if he is anywhere near a finished product, or that he isn’t struggling in his own right.

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Dismortologist Reply:
July 18th, 2011 at 12:49 pm

Finished product? He’s 1 month older than Bryan Mitchell and 4 days younger than Evan DeLuca… Come on man, he’s so advanced at that age. He’s as far from a finished product as they are. He hasn’t begun to physically mature and mentally he has a lot to learn too.

Yes he’s struggling but he’s @ AA and doing better than ok.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 18th, 2011 at 1:29 pm

I don’t think you read what I wrote…

“but lets not act as if he is anywhere near a finished product”.

I am saying we can’t start to act like he is some finished product who we at all costs can’t trade. He should be highly valued, but I have seen most Yankee fans acting as if he is a guarantee to be at bare minimum a number 3 starter. He could just as easily end up in the pen, as be an ace. If the deal is right I would trade him for Jimenez. To act as if he is untouchable is crazy.

I’m not so sure he hasn’t begun to physically mature. I stopped growing at around 17-18, and still today stand at the 5’11 I was then. He isn’t going to shoot up into the 6 foots, and that is a concern. He has tremendous upside, and we can’t lose sight of that. But he also has a lot to overcome, and we can’t lose sight of that either.

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T.O. Chris says:

July 18, 2011 at 11:49 am

Heyman is reporting that the Rockies don’t want Montero to be the center piece for this trade. They do want Montero, but they want him as the second piece. Which would suggest they value Banuelos as the main key to getting Jimenez.

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