Let’s keep the Mania going and punch into one of my favorite tools in all of the baseball internet land: the the Trade Value Calculator from Beyond the Boxscore.
When we punch Ubaldo into there–using his current fWAR and splitting his salary in half for simplicity’s sake–while incorporating the rest of his (incredible) contract, Ubaldo ends up with a trade value of $57.5M. So, what equals $57.5M from the Yankees in terms of prospects? Let’s run over to John Sickles farm system ratings where we can dig up the “worth” of each style of prospect:
Top 10 hitting prospects $32.5M
Top 11-25 hitters $22.3
Top 26-50 hitters $20.8
Top 51-75 hitters $12.6
Top 76-100 hitters $11.1
Top 10 pitching prospects $13.5
Top 11-25 pitchers $14.2
Top 26-50 pitchers $14.2
Top 51-75 pitchers $10.8
Top 76-100 pitchers $8.7
Grade B pitchers (as graded by Sickels) $6.5
Grade B hitters $4.9
Grade C pitchers 22 or younger $1.9
Grade C pitchers 23 or older $1.3
Grade C hitters 22 or younger $0.62
Grade C hitters 23 or older $0.45
We know the Yankees have a top ten hitting prospect in Jesus Montero, so that makes up $32.5M of the 57.5M theoretically needed to acquire Jimenez. That leaves us with $25M to make up. We could start with an 11-25 hitter, but the Yankees don’t have that, so we’ll move on to the pitchers. Let’s use the BA Midseason top 50 as our guide here. It lists Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances at 13 and 26 respectively. Each guy brings $14.2M of trade value, for a total of $28.4M. That gives us an excess of $3.4M. Theoretically, that alone should be enough to land Jimenez, but we know that’s not what’s going to happen. The Rockies will want more players and the Yankees won’t want to give up three of their best prospects in one deal, even if it was a deal for Jimenez. Let’s take one of them out of the deal and see what we can build. Since they’re both labeled as having the same value, we’ll forget about the name for now. Leaving Montero in and taking one of Manellin Betanous gives us $46.7M, so we need to make up $10.8M to get the value all squared away.
We’ll fill in the blanks with the grades given here.
Throwing in a Grade-B pitching prospect–, perhaps–adds $6.5M, so we’re down to $4.3 to make up. If the Yankees want to throw another hitter into the deal, they could use Brandon Laird and his C+ ranking which, combined with his age, 23, gives him a pretty low value of $0.45M. Now we still need to make up $3.85M of value. Someone else would have to be added to make up the value, but it may push the level a bit too high on the Yankees side.
Instead of doing Laird + someone else they could add another B-level pitcher–Adam Warren, perhaps–to make up the value. That would give another $6.5M and would push the Yankees’ total to $59.7M. It’s a bit over what we said Jimenez would be worth, but I’m willing to live with it.
So what could our proposal be? I think it could be one of these two:
Ubaldo Jimenez for: Jesus Montero, ONE of Manny Banuelos OR Dellin Betances, Hector Noesi, Brandon Laird, and one non Adam Warren or pitcher.
OR
Ubaldo Jimenez for Jesus Montero, ONE of Manny Banuelos OR Dellin Betances, Hector Noesi, and Adam Warren.
You could replace Warren with Ivan Nova in the second deal, but I don’t think the Yankees would do that (even if we’d prefer they did).
Remember, this is all essentially theoretical. Still, I think this type of exercise is fun. And, when I look at these two proposals, they’re not that far off from what the Rockies are reportedly asking for which is, of course, a very high starting point.
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I’d be happy if the Rockies accepted:
Jesus Montero, Dellin Betances, Hector Noesi, and Adam Warren for Ubaldo
It gives them a power bat, a high ceiling pitching prospect, a ML ready starter in Noesi (should be a solid 4/5 type at a minimum) and another solid prospect in Warren. We all know that prospects don’t usually pan out. As much as I’d love to see these guys get a shot with the Yankees, the team has a need for a starting pitcher and Jimenez appears to be the best available via trade this season or free agency after the season.
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YankeesJunkie Reply:
July 19th, 2011 at 1:37 pm
First off, I really enjoyed the article breaking down the trade using the trade calculator which is a pretty neat tool.
On your trade proposal I agree with the first two, but I would replace Nova with Noesi since IMO Noesi is the better of the two and could fill the #5 role next year. Nova probably sits at a higher value than Noesi at this point in time because he shown he can pitch in the majors so the Yanks probably end up giving a lesser prospect than Warren which could be a multitude of players.
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The trade calculator aside, how does Jimenez’ favorable contract status factor into the equation? I would think in the Rockies’ eyes, that has significant value as well.
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What value are you placing on Nova? I think a lot of people are undervaluing the worth that he provides. He’s not really a prospect anymore so I’m not sure the calculator works for him. He’s a young pitcher with 5+ years of control that has held his own in the AL East???? Although his numbers don’t light up the FIP chart, I suspect Nova is worth tons of value to a real GM.
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Did you remove the final year of Ubaldo’s contract from his value calculations?
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Matt Imbrogno Reply:
July 19th, 2011 at 2:51 pm
Yah, I took out the 2014 option since he can void it if traded.
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Anyone think the Yanks would go with a Sabathia/Hughes/Jimenez/Burnett ALDS rotation then a Sabathia/Hughes/Jimenez rotation for the ALCS and WS if Burnett sucks badly enough down the stretch? I tried to deny it, but I gotta admit it now: Burnett in the postseason scares me after what I saw last night. He can’t pitch like that in the postseason cuz I doubt the opposing team will bring in someone as unnerving as Farnsworth and a kid making his major league debut for a postseason game.
Hopefully Burnett can get his act together so the Yanks don’t have to even think about a three-man rotation after the ALDS.
Here are his remaining starts assuming he pitches every five games and barring rainouts:
7/23 vs. Oakland
7/29 vs. Baltimore
8/3 @ Chi-Sox
8/9 vs. LAA (he escapes having to start at Fenway)
8/14 vs. Tampa Bay
8/19 @ Minnesota
8/24 vs. Oakland
8/29 @ Baltimore (he escapes having to face Boston again)
9/4 vs. Toronto
9/10 @ LAA
9/16 @ Toronto
9/21 vs. Tampa Bay (he escapes having to face Boston yet again)
Final start @ Tampa Bay
He doesn’t face Boston thus Boston can’t get at-bats against him under this schedule. If the Angels and Tampa Bay don’t make the postseason, he faces no postseason teams and they can’t get at-bats against him to use for the postseason either. Note I don’t see Toronto, Chicago, Minnesota, or Oakland making the postseason which is why I say if the Angels and Rays make it.
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Duh, Innings! Reply:
July 19th, 2011 at 3:28 pm
Correction: If the Rays and Angels DON’T make it.
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Btw the Yanks taking three out of four against Tampa Bay would be huge cuz say Boston takes two of their next three. TB would be nine games behind Boston and I think officially out of a realistic chase for the division title as I don’t see Boston blowing a nine game lead over TB with less than 2.5 months of baseball to play. The Yanks would still be 1.5 games behind Boston. TB would also be 7.5 games behind the Yanks for the wildcard and on the precipice of being out of the postseason hunt altogether because the Yanks’ light ten-game homestand to end July (3 vs. Oakland, 3 vs. Seattle, 4 vs. Baltimore 7/22-31) could easily put them 8 to 10 games ahead of TB through July depending on how TB does. I’m gonna check TB’s schedule for the rest of July.
Oh my lord. On second thought hahaha. Tampa Bay has 3 vs. the Royals, 4 vs. the As, and 3 vs. the Mariners. Welp! Maybe TB’s goose wouldn’t be cooked yet. Then again maybe it would be cuz all those games are on the road. Eleven-game roadtrip, damn. The Yankees longest roadtrip from hereonin is only 9 games in the middle of September.
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[...] and see what he’s theoretically worth in a trade both now (like I did with Ubaldo Jimenez here; read that post for the relevant background info on the trade value calculator and the prospect [...]