The difference in A.J.

By Matt Imbrogno On June 19, 2011 · 5 Comments · In PitchFX

2011 has been an up and down season for . There have been, though, more ups than downs to this point, especially compared to last year. Yesterday was Burnett’s 15th start of the year and he’s been pretty solid thus far. He’s got a 4.05 ERA, a 4.34 FIP, and a 3.82 xFIP. To this point last year, 15 starts, Burnett had a 4.83 ERA and a horrifically ugly 5.79 FIP. So far, he’s allowed more than four runs just three times, as opposed to five times through 15 starts last year. 2011 has been an improvement over 2010, no doubt. But A.J.’s last two starts have been even better.

In his last two starts, Burnett has struck out 16 batters in 12.3 innings while walking just four and allowing three runs on nine hits. Over his previous four starts, Burnett had struck out 18. What’s Burnett been doing to get such great results? Let’s begin with A.J’s first fourteen starts.

Here, we see A.J. went fastball heavy, using some variation thereof on 63% of his pitches (including sinkers, probably mislabeled two seamers). Over the last two games, though, he’s seemingly reversed course a bit. We’ve heard subjectively that Burnett has had his curveball working and he’s had a better feel for that, and Pitch F/X backs that up. He’s upped his curveball usage to 34.7% . That’s just part of it, though. A.J. has severely increased the swing-and-miss percentage on his curveball. For the first thirteen games, Burnett got whiffs on 17.5% of his curves. In the games against Cleveland and the Cubs, opponents have swung and missed against just over a quarter of the deuces Burnett’s tossed (25.3% to be exact). And while his changeup usage has stayed about the same, 7.7% for 4/1-6/8; 7.4% for 6/9-6/18, the swing and miss percentage on that pitch has jumped from 12.1% to 18.8%.

His overall swing-and-miss rate has been better, too, according to his . In his first 13 starts, Burnett threw 1,314 pitches and got swinging strikes on 9% of his pitches. In the last two, he’s thrown 216 pitches with 19% of them have resulted in batters missing. To highlight this contrast, let’s go with the raw numbers. His last two games have garnered 27 swings and misses; the previous four netted 35.

Whatever A.J. has been doing with his curveball and changeup to induce those extra swings-and-misses over the last two starts has clearly been working. With Burnett, though, you never know if he’s going to keep it up for an extended period of time. He can sparkle at any time, and he can fizzle at any time. Hopefully, we’re at the start of something big.

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5 Responses to The difference in A.J.

  1. Duh, Innings! says:
    June 19, 2011 at 3:16 pm

    8-2 Red Sox in the 4th. ‘Way not to show up today, Milwaukee. The Yankees will have win tonight to remain a game and a half behind Boston. They have to win regardless of the Red Sox but it is annoying to see a team drop two of three including have their so-called ace Marcum who’s faced Boston before shit the bed Friday night.

    As for A.J., he should have at least two if not three more wins because the Yankees have pissed away three solid starts by him.

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  2. Kevin Ocala, Fl says:
    June 19, 2011 at 3:57 pm

    Matt, let’s wait to see if Burnett can keep the pitch count down and go deeper into games. It “seems” that when he strikes a lot of players out early he’s gassed by the sixth. Growing up (and already well “grown”)in Miami, I always wondered if Burnett wouldn’t have played up better as a closer. I know his “value” wouldn’t have been as high but he’s really a “high-octane” sort of personality. Who knows, maybe he’ll go the route of “Eck” one of these years….

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    T.O. Chris Reply:
    June 20th, 2011 at 10:12 pm

    When a guy is as effective a starter as AJ has been over his career he would never be better off as a closer.

    I’ve never understood this whole “closer mentality” everyone is so in love with. Everyone who was on the Joba to the pen side of the argument used that, yet the greatest closer of all time seems to be the most low key closer in baseball history.

    I think once he can’t start anymore he’ll retire. He’ll be a starter for his entire Yankee career for sure, but I assume he’ll stay in the rotation if he continues pitching after that.

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  3. Karen W. says:
    June 20, 2011 at 4:10 pm

    What AJ is supposedly doing differently this year is putting things behind him (error behind made behind him, threw a pitch the catcher called but he didn’t have faith in throwing, etc.) and not second guessing himself as much – instead of letting things eat away at him and make him lose focus on the present hitter/situation.

    But to me it really just comes down to the faith he has in Martin to block any pitch he throws in the dirt. I don’t think its any coincidence that he had a decent year throwing to Molina in ’09 and is having a decent year with Martin in ’11

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    T.O. Chris Reply:
    June 20th, 2011 at 10:15 pm

    Let’s not overlook his work with Larry Rothschild. in spring training he spent a lot of time with Larry working on making his delivery more compact and not flying open as much. His mental approach has been much better, and his belief in Martin has to help, but the mechanical work he did is what is allowing the rest to play a role. If he wasn’t as mechanically sound the confidence wouldn’t be there, and he is yanking less curves because of it.

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