At long last, the 2011 MLB draft is finally here, and with it, an opportunity for the Yankees to further strengthen their farm system and acquire future Bronx Bombers. TV coverage begins at 6 PM Eastern on MLB Network with a preview, with the first round beginning at 7 PM. In addition to the first round, the sandwich round (in which the Yankees have their first pick of the draft at #51) will also be shown. Rounds 2-30 will take place on Tuesday beginning at noon, with a live stream on mlb.com. Rounds 31-50 will take place on Wednesday beginning at noon again, also with a live stream.
Additionally, The Yankee Analysts will have significant coverage of the draft over the next three days to look forward to, in the form of a live chat/liveblog (haven’t decided yet) during draft day, and analysis of the Yankee draft picks. I’d like to start off our coverage with a little wish list for who I think the Yankees should draft at #51, with their only pick on the first day. This list is a ranking of guys who I believe will have a chance of being available at #51, so this rules out slam dunk first-rounders such as Bubba Starling, Trevor Bauer, Anthony Rendon, Dylan Bundy, or Trevor Bauer’s rotation-mate (whose name seems to have slipped my mind) who will definitely be snapped up in the top 10. On my wish list are a few guys who on talent alone should not be available at #51, but due to large bonus demands, strong college commitments, or injury may be available, as well as a few guys who I would feel pretty comfortable projecting to be available at #51 if the possible fallers don’t make it to the Yankees’ pick.
Before I post the big board, I want to make a few disclaimers. I am no expert, and have no access to insider information, so my picks are made based on info from around the blogosphere (including Sean’s excellent posts on this site) as well as rumors from various draft experts on Twitter. Therefore, it is highly likely that my big board will be foolishly optimistic, and my predicted pick (which will come later today) will likely not come to fruition. This is primarily for fun, but feel free to critique, discuss, or even mock my picks in the comment section, as I’m definitely looking for feedback/other viewpoints from folks who very well may have more extensive draft knowledge. The last time I did one of these big boards (in 2009) I predicted Slade Heathcott as the Yankees’ first pick (lucky guess, or believing Keith Law over some of the other prognosticators), though Tanner Scheppers, who was higher on my board, was available when the Yankees picked. So here goes nothing. I’ll have some thoughts/explanations at the bottom.
Eric’s 2011 MLB Draft Big Board (for the #51 pick)
1. Josh Bell (HS OF)
2. Blake Swihart (HS C)
3. Brandon Nimmo (HS OF)
4. Dillon Howard (HS RHP)
5. Tyler Beede (HS RHP)
6. Matt Purke (TCU LHP)
7. Derek Fisher (HS OF)
8. Dillon Maples (HS RHP)
9. Granden Goetzman (HS OF)
10. Williams Jerez (HS OF)
11. Brandon Martin (HS SS)
As you can see, it’s a very high school heavy board, and I think with good reason. I see better value in the high school class at this point, and don’t really see many high ceiling college players being available at #51. I’m primarily focusing on toolsy outfielders on the hitting side (with the exception of Swihart and Martin) and power arms on the pitching side. I see my board breaking down into several tiers: Bell and Swihart make up the first tier, Nimmo and Howard the second, Beede and Purke the 3rd, and Maples, Fisher, Goetzman, Jerez, and Martin representing the 4th tier.
Bell is definitely my top choice who has a chance to fall (some mocks have him falling out of the first round altogether), and I would be ecstatic if he were to be available at #51, as he’s a legitimate top-15 talent, the type of high school power bat that usually doesn’t fall to the Yankees. He would be a tough and costly signing, but in my mind, well worth it, given his talent and his ability to fill an organizational need. As a catcher, Swihart doesn’t really fill an organizational vacancy, but I view him as a better version of JR Murphy: a switch-hitting catcher with the athleticism to play 3rd base or outfield, and this versatility could make him a valuable prospect even in an organization as stocked with catchers as the Yankees. Nimmo is another toolsy outfielder with a big price tag (believed to be $3 million) who like Slade Heathcott has recovered well from a knee injury to impress scouts.
Purke at #6 on my list is probably the first guy who I’m pretty confident will be available at #51, and I would be willing to take him there unless he said flat-out that he was not willing to sign at any price, or his shoulder injury is serious. Given the Yankees’ lack of a first-round pick, if the first 5 guys on my board aren’t available (and no other first-round talents are), I think taking Purke at #51 is defensible, albeit risky. If the Yankees pass on Purke, he could very well wind up dropping several rounds, and it’s possible he could be had later in the draft. However, if the Yankees decide that Purke is worth taking a chance on (and paying a big bonus), I would have no problem with the Yankees getting him at #51.
After Purke, it’s bunch of high schoolers who are on the raw side, but have high upsides (except for Martin, who I view as a Cito Culver type of pick with potentially better offense, but worse defense). Maples intrigues me as a hard-throwing high schooler who can spin a decent curveball, while Fisher, Goetzman, and Jerez have athleticism and power potential that the Yankees could definitely use in their system.
Without a first-rounder, I was really trying to emphasize ceiling with my selections, and an extremely risky draft board is the result. There are definitely some decent college players who will be available at #51, but I wasn’t confident enough in the ceilings of any of them to warrant including them on this board. I’ll have my prediction in the afternoon before the draft is underway. As mentioned previously, thoughts, critiques, and other such commentary are welcome and encouraged.
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If its me, pitchers have to be the main focus. They just can’t rely on free agency and trades in anymore todays market to build their roation.
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Eric Schultz Reply:
June 6th, 2011 at 10:38 am
This is true, you can never have too much pitching in the organization. However, in the draft, you really can’t draft for need, and the best strategy is just to take the best talents available, even if they are at a position of organizational strength. If a pitcher is the best guy left, they should take him, but if it’s a position player, so be it.
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I would love Bell to be available, but I think the Red Sox snatch him up and throw big money at him.
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Eric Schultz Reply:
June 6th, 2011 at 11:10 am
That is definitely a possible outcome, given the fact that the Sox have 4 picks before the Yankees have one (and the Rays and Blue Jays have eleventy-billion). However, I think the fact that the Red Sox have multiple early picks may prevent them from throwing out huge bonuses to all their early picks. There will have to be some safe signs around slot if they don’t want to explode their draft budget and have room for guys in later rounds. For example, I don’t think Boston will shell out for more than 1 of Bell, Swihart, and Nimmo. Maybe it’s hopeful optimism, but if you look at Boston’s history with first-round picks, the only big overslot guy I can remember is Casey Kelly in 2008 (and Ranaudo last year in the sandwich round).
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Sean P. Reply:
June 6th, 2011 at 11:25 am
Yeah, I think he’s the top guy in that group though and from what I’ve read, Boston and Tampa will have the same strategy- take one safe, reasonable pick and then spend and shoot for absolute upside. I think Bell will go to one of those teams
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Almost every mock I’ve seen has Purke going way before pick 51, regardless of any arm concerns. And I’d just completely and utterly surprised if he falls out of the first round.
My guess is that if the arm scares people, Boston will take him, just like they took Ranaundo (sp?) last year. And if that happens, I will cry and yell at Soriano and Levine.
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Eric Schultz Reply:
June 6th, 2011 at 11:12 am
Really? I haven’t seen that many mocks (and most of them are just the 1st round), but none of the mocks I’ve seen have Purke being taken in the 1st. He certainly could be popped in the sandwich round before the Yankees pick, but I see a reasonable chance that he’s available at #51.
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