(photo c/o EPA/Jason Szenes)
I want to preface this post by saying that I’m not a fan of the Hit-by-Pitch. Sure, I’m happy to get a free baserunner if a Yankee gets plunked, but I despise the idea that a team needs to retaliate just because one of their own was hit. Why on earth would you giftwrap the opponent a free baserunner? Especially when playing a team like the Red Sox, where that runner has a better-than-league-average likelihood of coming around to score? But I digress.
Reader Geoffrey recently e-mailed us asking if we could quantify the number of hit-by-pitches that the Yankees have inflicted upon Boston and vice versa over the last 15 years. The numbers highlighted in yellow below indicate seasons where the Red Sox or Yankees were responsible for the highest number of HBPs in the American League against the other. Granted, they play each other so frequently that it’s not terribly surprising that one would lead the league in HBPs against the other in a given year, but I figured the additional layer of data might be somewhat useful.
(Data c/o Baseball-Reference)
I thought we might see a significant spike in Yankee HBPs by Boston in 1998, given that that was the first year Pedro Martinez wore a Boston uniform, but in fact that season represented a 15-year low. However, the HBP total began to trend upwards, and reached absurd proportions in 2004, when the Sox hit the Yankees 18 times, and the Yankees returned the favor 15 times of their own — both of which were the high numbers for these two teams on the above chart.
Anyway, for those looking to pour gasoline on an unnecessary fire, the Red Sox have indeed hit the Yankees with a pitch considerably more often than the Yankees have done to the Sox during the last 15 years — in fact, Boston has hit nearly 40 more Yankees in that timeframe than the Yankees have hit Red Sox.
However, I look at those numbers and see all of the extra opportunities the Red Sox have given the Yankees to score over the years, rather than suffer indignation because Boston is hitting the Bombers’ players and the Yankees are supposedly doing nothing about it. Let the Red Sox keep giving the Yankees additional baserunners; at the end of the day it’s all about who scored more runs, not who the bigger hard-ass was.
Oh, and for fun, here’s the above table in line graph form:
As you can see, the Yankees have only hit the Red Sox with more pitches than Boston has hit the Yankees with in two out of the last 15 seasons — 1998 and 2009. While it may be tempting to look at those years and somehow try to equate hitting Boston with pitches with winning championships, I would advise against that — this is clearly a random statistical fluctuation.
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All hail Larry, King of the Stats! I agree with you completely about not getting worked up over HBP’s, since they provide extra offensive opportunities (unless they injure somebody, in which case I get very worked up). Probably a more interesting stat would be of the number of games lost to injury as a result of an HBP (which could easily be skewed by one really bad injury), number and length of suspensions, and chief offenders/main targets of HBP’s.
That said, it is very funny that 1998 and 2009 are the only 2 seasons when the Yankees have out-hit (in this sense) the Sox, and both seasons were World Series wins. I’m sure some absurd narrative about fire and passion could be woven from that correlation, but I’ll hold off.
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I’m the first to admit that I get overly worked up about HBPs, especially at the hand of Fraud Sawx pitching. But I also appreciate the extra free opportunities given to the Yankees to score runs as a result and it was a huge bummer that they couldn’t fully capitalize on the situation last night in the 1st inning.
That being said, I want to see Ellsbury drilled on the first pitch of the night tonight. You have to think there was some grumbling amongst the guys in the locker room after the game last night about the HBPs, the bat flip, etc., so for team morale purposes I think it’s a good thing. You want to know that your teammates have your back.
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Professor Longnose Reply:
June 8th, 2011 at 6:17 pm
Not Ellsbury on the first pitch. Gonzalez, if it gets to two out, no one on.
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The Captain Reply:
June 8th, 2011 at 11:30 pm
You want to rethink that after the game Ellsbury had tonight? When the hell did that guy become a good baseball player???
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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 9th, 2011 at 6:22 pm
2 years ago when he stole 70.
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Larry—thanks for the information but I believe you are a little off base arguing the value of an extra base runner. You discount the advantage of putting a valuable player out of the game (case in point Tex last night) but more importantly the intangible of getting into the next batter’s head. Unless the other team realizes they will suffer the same faith for the their “wildness” advantage Boston. The bumps and bruises from getting hit linger and have a negative effect down the road. Ask a guy named Goose for the proper response. Jerry Needham
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Larry Koestler Reply:
June 9th, 2011 at 1:50 pm
My pleasure, Jerry. And we’ll just to agree to disagree. As a statistician, I see zero value in giving the opposition a free baserunner. I can’t analyze what “getting in a batter’s head” means and whether something like that even exists, so from my point of view hitting batters has no positive outcome whatsoever.
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I also think you need to look at injuries. I remember Jeter and was it Soriano? both getting hit on the hands in the same game, or same series. I can’t recall the Yankees ever putting a Sox player out of a game with A HBP. Could be just faulty recall. Are there HBP injury stats anywhere?
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Larry, hate to be cliche here. Its not about being a bigger hard ass, hell it’s not even about having a harder ass (which is admittedly important).
The fact is it’s about self regulation and injury prevention. If tex has a broken knee cap what then?
Pitchers have to know that if they can’t control the inside half they risk injuring an opponent.
And if they injure an opponent they risk injury to their teammates.
Im not down with being a hardass. But if a patten develops where u are hit with impunity u must respond.
Gonzalez should be drilled in the knee. Sorry but thems the rules and everyone knows them.
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Larry Koestler Reply:
June 9th, 2011 at 1:54 pm
Hey Bp,
I know you’re a former player, and so I completely understand where you’re coming from with regards to the regulation stuff.
That being said, for me, given the difficulty of proving whether an HBP was intentional or not, I will always find it ill-advised to give the opponent a free baserunner.
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[...] How frequently the Yankees and Red Sox have hit each other by pitches since 1997: Larry Koestler of The Yankee Analysts analyzes the Sox and Yanks’ beaning tendencies in recent years. [...]
thanks for digging the numbers larry. one thing i found interesting with these HBP stats between the two ballclubs is that wakefield has committed the most plunks on the sox side. this is a variable that cannot be overlooked. he’s hit 9 yanks since 2003. not sure his HBP’s carry the same weight or show intentional malice. he may be the normalizing factor in this “you guy’s always throw at us” debate.
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Diana Reply:
June 9th, 2011 at 10:28 pm
Could that have anything to do with the fact that Wakefield is a knuckle ball pitcher? I’ve seen him tame and great, wild and great, tame and lousy, and wild and lousier. Control over a knuckle ball seems to be an issue at times across the board.
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