The 2011 MLB draft is just about a week away. As I usually try to, I’ve resisted writing about the draft so far. Other bloggers on the minor league baseball beat have tried to do some guessing and profiling of potential draftees, but I find that these profiles, mock drafts, and other previews tend to miss the mark once we move past the 1st round. Even in the 1st round, the only Yankee pick that we’ve heard predicted accurately in advance was Andrew Brackman in 2007, but that was pretty easy to see coming. At 51st overall, it gets even more difficult. I’ll put my hard work in looking at the Yankee draft class later on.
However, I do think that we can make some educated guesses about the Yankee draft strategy in 2011. Traditionally, the Yankees sign a 1st-round pick to slot-or-a-little-more dollars, then spread their money out among a half dozen or more 500k+ signing bonuses, one or two seven-figure above-slot bonuses, and a total draft budget of around $6-8 million dollars. In 2010, they went even farther to their own strategy: signing Cito Culver to a below-slot signing bonus in the first round, then spreading huge dollars out among a dozen others. It was one of the more impressive displays of aggressive drafting in the later rounds that we’ve seen from any MLB team in recent years. Here is a table of the 2010 draft:
I think we’re in for an even more aggressive draft from the Yankees, for three distinct reasons:
First, CBA negotiations threaten a hard-slotting system. The Yankees, and other big-spending teams, are well aware that the majority of MLB teams want to hold draft choices to defined draft bonuses, preventing the big-spenders from gaining a competitive advantage. They also are well aware that the MLBPA, which represents current, not future, players, is likely to favor it as a CBA negotiating chip with owners. This may be the last time that the Yankees have to bring in a massive haul of talented, young would-be college stars to their farm system. Second, the Yankees lack a 1st-round pick (they pick first at 51st, in the compensation round). Whatever budget the Steinbrenners have given Brian Cashman and Damon Oppenheimer can be stretched much broader without a $2 million-plus 1st round signing bonus to spend. Finally, the Yankees have been relatively reserved in the International Free Agent market in recent years, passing on most high-priced, hyped free agents (Notably rare exceptions: Jesus Montero, Kelvin De Leon, Gary Sanchez) in favor of spreading their picks around and spending on the amateur draft. They seem understandably skeptical of IFA prices.
Now, there are serious diminishing returns to some aspects of expansive above-slot spending. Every once in awhile, you get a chance to draft someone like Dellin Betances, Austin Jackson, or Mason Williams: guys who are high-round talent with strong college commitments to be bought out. More often, you get guys who look more like the 2010 draft class: promising and talented, but flawed enough to scare teams off. These guys wouldn’t be thinking about college if they were drafted in the first few rounds, but aren’t good enough to merit that kind of draft pick. The true assessed talent level of guys like Taylor Morton or Gabe Encinas or even David Robertson is more like 3rd-6th round level, but more money is required to get them to commit to college than your average middle round pick. That’s what the Yankee draft budget will probably buy them: an extra 2nd-or-supplemental round talent for a few million dollars, and a whole bunch of extra middle round picks with upside.
A final thought: two factors should affect Yankee draft strategy beyond what I mentioned above. First, other large-budget draft rooms are going to be following the exact same strategy, competing for high-dollar above-slot signings before the party potentially ends. This will make it harder for the Yankees to find players. At the same time, the 2011 draft is considered one of the strongest drafts in recent memory. A lot of players who are 1st round talent will not be drafted in the first 30 picks. This should push a few guys with high bonus demands downward, giving the Yankees an opportunity to swoop in and grab players who look more like Mason Williams than Ben Gamel. If that kind of player falls to the Yankees at 51st overall, they might pull trigger early, instead of waiting a few rounds.
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Agreed EJ, it will be an interesting draft to follow. I imagine there will be some good talent available at 51 due to the depth of this year’s draft class, hopefully some first round talents who want top 5/10 money (and may get it in an ordinary year), but are pushed down by some of the other guys in the class.
As for getting the picks right, I believe I mocked Slade Heathcott to the Yankees in 2009 (I’ll have to go back to the archives to check on that), but your overall point is well taken. I don’t think anyone saw the Culver pick coming last year.
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George Reply:
May 31st, 2011 at 1:19 pm
I believe that you did pick Slade. And the Culver pick was a surprise
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EJ Fagan Reply:
May 31st, 2011 at 2:14 pm
I forgot that you picked Heathcott. I know there was some buzz that the Yankees liked him at the draft last year. Nice job there.
Good luck on the 51st overall lottery though :)
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Eric Schultz Reply:
May 31st, 2011 at 3:32 pm
A blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while I suppose. But yeah, I have no idea about 51.
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Bravo EJ! I enjoyed reading this piece because its dead-on with last years draft, that may mirror this years, minus a first round pick…When the Yankees drafted Williams, Segedin, Burawa, Encinas, Rutckyi, DePaula (I cannot wait to see those three pitch) and Nuding, I was looking forward to following these kids develop over time. Pending on position and injury history in this years draft, who do you think the Yankees would select at 51?
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EJ Fagan Reply:
May 31st, 2011 at 2:17 pm
I’m going to defer to Sean and Eric on 51st overall. I follow college baseball a little bit, but I don’t educate myself enough beyond the 1st round to make any kind of guess. I do, however, think the Yankees might try to strike gold by selecting someone who might be considered a #20-#30 overall selection, but wants $2-3 million dollars, so he drops. Who is that person? I have no clue. But this is the kind of super-deep draft that someone of that caliber can slip through all the way down to our draft pick. In thinner drafts, that guy gets Rick Porcello’d by someone in the 1st round. Alternatives allow teams to go for the cheaper option.
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Jerry Reply:
May 31st, 2011 at 10:02 pm
Burawa needs to get his game together. Kid’s so promising but his performance is taking a downturn. Hope whatever he lost he gets it back.
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I believe Nuding was a college kid…
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EJ Fagan Reply:
May 31st, 2011 at 3:58 pm
Yeah, that’s a mistake. I put this table together last November. Weatherford is a JC.
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EJ, with the benefit of a year’s experience, who was the best value pick by the Yankees in the 2010 draft?
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EJ Fagan Reply:
May 31st, 2011 at 3:59 pm
Its hard to tell. I love what I hear about Mason Williams though.
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[...] here to see the original: Looking Ahead To The Amateur Draft | New York Yankees blog … AKPC_IDS += "19616,"; AKPC_IDS += [...]
Want a mid to late round steal?He has hit 4 bombs in final six playoff games….Plays in North division of Nwaacc’s conference..Is 6’2″ 205 and on scout day ran a 6.37 sixty….His arm in inny outy was amazing..clocked at 97-plus with no tail…In 145 ab’s power numbers…9 doubles 3 triples 5 bombs with 21 sleal attempts..and caught stealing once.Batted 323 on the year…and led off last part of year.He is 23 years old…was out of game for 2- season’s…due to tommy john…Played center and right field for Everett Tojans
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