(photo c/o The AP)
Though they do get to face , who they teed off on in his first start of the season, and whose return to the American League has, to put it delicately, not gone so well.
In any event, the Yankees (16-9, 1st in the AL East) are at Detroit (12-16, 3rd in the AL Central) — losers of six straight, including sweeps by both the Mariners and division-rival Indians — for a four-game series for the second straight May, and in a rather bizarre scheduling quirk, won’t see the Tigers again for the rest of the season. This has to be one of the earliest instances ever of a team completing all of its games with a given opponent.
As you may (begrudgingly) recall, the Yankees got their butts handed to them last May in Detroit, as poor Mike — who attended all four games – can attest to. That ignominious series featured the Yankees not only getting shut out for the first time all season, but getting shutout twice in those four games. The 2011 edition has already been shutout twice.
This year’s Detroit team doesn’t feel quite as scary to me as those of recent vintage — probably because no one is hitting outside of , a resurgent and Yankee-killing and — and their record is really right around where you’d expect it to be for a team that has mostly struggled to score. — who every analyst in the free world expected would experience a pretty significant regression after his insane 2010 BABIP – has had a particularly rough go of it so far, “hitting” a paltry .194/.269/.269. Even ‘s been better than that (though not by much).
Tonight’s game has the suddenly ace-like (2.77 ERA/2.79 FIP/2.91 xFIP) going against (3.64 ERA/3.72 FIP/3.31 xFIP). This should be a fascinating game to watch, as the resurgent Colon has been dispatching hitters like its 2005, while Verlander continues to be one of the best pitchers in the game. The Yankees have shown an ability to get to Verlander in the past, and though Verlander’s been unlucky as far as home runs go (1.29 HR/9) he’s been extremely lucky on balls in play (.226 BABIP against .293 career) and I’d expect the Yankee bats to tag him for a few runs. I don’t really know what to say about Colon other than that I hope he can somehow continue what he’s been doing, but, like teammate Freddy Garcia, he also seems like a prime candidate for a stumble.
Tuesday’s contest is rather lopsided, as (2.25 ERA/2.73 FIP/3.19 xFIP) is slated to face Brad Penny (6.11 ERA/4.90 FIP). Penny’s been bad in spite of a low BABIP, isn’t expected to pitch much better (4.82 xFIP) and it appears the only reason he hasn’t been worse is his high GB%. Simply put, the Yankees have no business losing this game.
The third game has Freddy Garcia (2.00 ERA/4.26 FIP/3.92 xFIP) going against (3.82 ERA), who has been good though appears to have been the beneficiary of a significant helping of luck (4.94 FIP). While his .317 BABIP could be considered unlucky, his strand rate of 87.1% is ridiculous and completely unsustainable. Soon enough some of those runners will be coming around to score, though this doesn’t mean Scherzer isn’t still very good. Though rotationmate has out-fWARed Scherzer thus far, Scherzer’s still probably Detroit’s second-best pitcher.
And speaking of the groundballer Porcello (4.25 ERA/3.55 FIP/3.34 xFIP), he gets the call for the Tigers in the finale against (3.93 ERA/4.21 FIP/3.84 xFIP). It was a tale of two Porcellos against the Yankees last year, as he infuriatingly threw 7 shutout innings against them in May, but was torched for six runs over five innings back in August. After two rough starts to begin the season he seems to be back on track, and his strike-throwing tendencies (only 2.12 BB/9) have also materialized in the K/9 portion of his ledger, as he’s striking out nearly two batters per inning more than last season.
Here are the two teams’ offense and pitching numbers, with AL ranks in parentheses:
While the talent on the roster likely says otherwise, thus far the Tigers have played like a true middle-of-the-road team, with an underpowering offense and a pitching staff with peripherals superior to its actual performance. I’m not so sure we’ve seen the real Detroit Tigers so far, although perhaps they are a below-.500 team.
In any event, the Yankees have quite clearly played better baseball than the Tigers have, and though Comerica has been the third-most unfriendly hitting environment in the American League thus far — and though I am also loath to call any team winning three out of four in any series, and a split is still probably the most likely outcome — the Yankees really should be able to take three of four from this lesser version of the Tigers. As long as they don’t give Cabrera anything to hit, there really isn’t anyone else in the lineup that can hurt you right now.
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24 straight starts with over 100 pitches, the Tigers, and Leyland more specifically just don’t care if they blow out Verlander’s arm. He’s a great pitcher but as I said yesterday I would be very hesitant to trade Banuelos and Montero for someone with so much abuse. I’ve personally watched a start where he threw 130 pitches, and he is allowed to throw until he can’t anymore. You have to feel that throwing that hard, with that kind of work load will catch up to him sooner or later.
Granderson is really locked in right now seeing the ball, if he can continue to put good ABs together, and most importantly take walks like that, he could have the All-Star season in the mold people have been expected for some time.
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Steve S. Reply:
May 2nd, 2011 at 7:29 pm
If you ever look at the list of pitchers with the most abuse points, you’ll find they’re typically among the best in baseball. Reason being they’re aces of their staffs, and therefore log the most innings.
I’m not overly concerned about the mileage on his arm, because he throws a free and easy 99. Very simple and clean delivery, virtually no history of arm trouble. I’d drive Montero and Banuelos to the airport if that’s all it took to land one of the top 3-4 pitchers in baseball.
BTW-Joba and Hughes
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T.O. Chris Reply:
May 2nd, 2011 at 7:38 pm
I forgot the best pitchers in baseball never get hurt… Obviously the better you are the more you get used but Verlander has literally had almost no care taken with his arm since Leyland took over and I don’t expect him to make it into his mid 30′s without major injury concerns/problems.
It would take quite a bit more than just Montero and Banuelos and I expect you know that, I also expect you know that’s not what I meant.
Tigers wouldn’t even want Montero as they already have a C/DH and Miguel Cabrera filling every spot he could have.
If you would trade Montero, Banuelos, Betances, Hughes, Nova for Verlander than we disagree on his long term production and health which is fine.
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Steve S. Reply:
May 2nd, 2011 at 8:06 pm
Whoops! Never finished my Joba/Hughes point. They weren’t abused, and we all know what happened next. Its not just about how many innings you log, its red flags in your delivery, age, injury history, etc. Case by case basis, and so far there’s no reason to worry about Verlander.
BTW-Remember how we had those same concerns about abuse with CC? Yanks felt so confident they gave him the biggest contract in history for a pitcher.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
May 2nd, 2011 at 8:17 pm
The only time I felt CC got really abused was down the stretch when he was traded to the Brewers, I actually think the Indians do a decent job with their pitchers. That was half a season, The Tigers have had Verlander for years, and Leyland isn’t exactly someone who looks like he cares about the future.
Joba was abused in a totally different way, instead of throwing too many innings he wasn’t allowed to throw enough in the minor leagues, got conditioned to being in the pen, and was then thrown straight into a major league rotation without ever even throwing a 6 IP game in Scranton. I credit that directly to his arm injury.
Hughes I still maintain is suffering from the effects of jumping innings last year, when they went well over the “comfortable” innings jump for a pitcher that young. It’s not “abuse” but it is in my opinion directly derived from how he was used.
I understand your position but I respectfully disagree.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
May 2nd, 2011 at 8:29 pm
Oh and if you want to talk Sabathia I think because of his weight and innings load he could very well be a huge injury risk once he reaches his early to mid 30′s. In fact I wrote a guest piece on just that here.
I don’t think Sabathia has had the pitches per inning load Verlander has over the last few years, but in his own way he does have injury red flags and I wouldn’t re-sign him if he opted out because of it.
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Steve S. Reply:
May 2nd, 2011 at 8:41 pm
Chris, I think you’re being impractical.Just about all pitchers, even elite pitchers have some red flags. Josh Johnson had TJ. Cliff Lee had back trouble last year. Dan Haren sits at 88-92 and throws too many strikes. CC is fat, had knee surgery and Verlander has logged a ton of innings. I’d kill to have a rotation of those 5 guys. You could literally take our entire top 10 prospects and I wouldn’t bat an eye.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
May 2nd, 2011 at 8:48 pm
Having Tommy John surgery when you are in your early 20′s isn’t the same as leading the league in pitches per plate appearance and pitches per inning.
Throwing 89-92 and throwing too many strikes? Are you serious? That isn’t an injury red flag.
So let me get this straight you would trade our top 10 prospects for a total package of Verlander, Sabathia, Josh Johnson, Dan Haren and Cliff Lee? Really went out on a limb didn’t you… So would everyone in the word.
You are being a little ridiculous don’t you think? I wouldn’t trade my future for 1 pitcher who I think has been used and abused for years, and fully believe his arm will ear out before he is 35. It’s my opinion, you disagree, we’ll eventually see who is right.
Sabathia is an excellent pitcher and I would love for him to finish his contract with us, but having him opt out and sign a 6-7 year deal ups the injury risk by 10 fold and I don’t want to do that while also upping his money, when no one else could match the offer anyway. Obviously you disagree and once again we will see who is right.
Everything else is a little silly.
My man Jorge! (And did Austin Jackson just not feel like running on that?)
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T.O. Chris Reply:
May 2nd, 2011 at 7:28 pm
It did look like he slowed up some once he realized he wasn’t going to catch it, but it could be a number of things besides being lazy. Austin’s never had that as a nock against him so I don’t think it’s what it looked like.
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Professor Longnose Reply:
May 2nd, 2011 at 8:24 pm
I didn’t mean to question Jackson’s motivation; ioot was just a joke. Possible he didn’t see it fully, or he thought it was going to hit the wall and he wanted to be ready to play a carom. You’re right, it could have been a number of things. But it bounced on the track, and it didn’t look like Jackson was running all out.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
May 2nd, 2011 at 8:27 pm
I was actually agreeing with you because he did look like he completely let off the gas once he didn’t think he could get it. I was simply speculating on why he might have done that, and gave my opinion that it wasn’t him loafing.
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Look at Derek Jeter. ‘Barely beats out a grounder then gets caught stealing by a mile. At least he attempted to steal a base. Zero SB, 2 CS so far this year. Is this is alloted monthly SB attempt? Pathetic and embarassing.
He is the worst position player on the team cuz every other guy can do something he can’t do and most can do what he does better than him.
Martin hits for power, steals bases, and plays Gold Glove caliber defense.
Teixiera and Cano hit for power and play Gold Glove defense.
A-Rod hits for power.
Gardner steals bases, gets on base, and plays Gold Glove defense (Jeter’s 2010 Gold Glove is a joke.)
Granderson hits for power and plays Gold Glove caliber defense.
Swisher hits for power and gets on base.
I say release Jeter after 2012 or make him a $17M bench player in 2013 which would make him decide to retire Gil Meche-style after 2012 if he has a subpar 2011-12. Eat the remaining $25M ($17M for 2013 + $8M player option for 2014.) You wanted one final payday (although you ridiculously think you’re playing baseball until you’re 45 cuz you see Omar Vizquel doing that, right?), you will have to be a part-timer.
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Colon needs to get those fastballs down some, when he’s missing he’s missing up. That’s not as much of a concern with his 94/95 4 seam, but that 2 seam really needs to be as far down in the zone as possible. Haven’t seen it much in his last two starts, he looks good but it’s something to keep an eye on as we get deeper into the game.
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I still can’t get enough of this Bin Laden coverage. It’s straight out of an episode of ’24′. I also have no idea how they figured out that was him inside. I get that they could take heat map images, get an approximate height/weight. But how they knew that was him and not just some Joe Blow drug dealer still isn’t public knowledge, and probably won’t be for many years.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
May 2nd, 2011 at 8:18 pm
I honestly could care less, people are making it out to be some huge deal when in all honesty nothing changes from this but Obama’s approval rating. I don’t want to get into a political discussion so I will leave it here but I just want to get as far away from that news as possible.
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That’s the best contact Alex’s has made since he went into his slump, if he can string a couple of ABs like that together he should get them to start falling again.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
May 2nd, 2011 at 9:25 pm
Alex looks like he is a little late getting that front foot to the floor, wouldn’t surprise me to see him work with Long to shorten that leg kick like he did a few years ago when he had the same problem.
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BTW-I’m loving Bob Lorenz as the lead announcer. I haven’t found myself being annoyed and/or doing a facepalm all night.
Hopefully Kay will lose his voice or something, and the Yanks will forget he ever existed.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
May 2nd, 2011 at 8:50 pm
Really? I have been bored out of my gored with the monotone brothers, I’m begging for Al, or Kay, or Kenny to liven this booth up.
Haha we are just on opposite ends today Steve, which is fairly rare.
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Professor Longnose Reply:
May 2nd, 2011 at 8:58 pm
Bring back Bill White and Phil Rizzuto.
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
May 2nd, 2011 at 10:31 pm
i second
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Two hits for my man Jorge!
If he’s actually coming around, that’s very good news.
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Posada and Gardner on base back to back! Whoo-hoooooo!
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All I’m saying is that 21 pitches per inning in a close, high stress 6 IP is a cause for concern when it’s a regular occurrence.
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The Tigers have really nasty stuff at the back end of their pen!
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what is it with this team and guys getting thrown out trying to steal? We’ve given away 3 outs and 3 baserunners running the bases tonight, including 2 with the heart of the order coming up.
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Professor Longnose Reply:
May 2nd, 2011 at 10:11 pm
And they all came in innings where they probably cost runs.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
May 2nd, 2011 at 10:19 pm
I can’t fault that steal in the least though. It was the right idea to send Granderson, and Grandy stole the base his momentum just ended up taking him off the base. It’s unfortunate but I don’t find fault with anyone.
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