Yesterday, Fangraphs completed its always interesting and often controversial organizational rankings list. It is not a list of how well these teams will do in the coming season, but rather, an examination of overall organizational strength. This year, the ranking methodology was tweaked slightly, with future talent, present talent, financial resources, and baseball operations ranked on a 0-100 scale by the Fangraphs staff. After being ranked #3 in 2009 and #1 in 2010, the Yankees surprised many by also being ranked #1 in 2011, despite a rough (by their standards) offseason and a spending spree on the part of their main rivals, the Boston Red Sox.
The Yankees were ranked #1 in present talent (a score of 94), which was somewhat of a surprise, as everyone including the Fangraphs staff had picked the Red Sox to win the AL Pennant over the Yankees. I would be very curious to see the cause of this discrepancy; whether it was a few people who happened to rank the Yankees much higher than the Red Sox in present talent, or the realization that despite all the hype Boston has been getting this offseason, the Yankee roster is still pretty damn good.
The Yankees were tied for 3rd in future talent with a score of 90, which likely corresponds to a farm system ranking around 5-6. This is consistent with where the Yankee system has been ranked this offseason by a variety of sources, and with valuable commodities such as Montero, Banuelos, Betances, et al in the system, it is understandable that the Yankee system got some respect.
The Yankees’ #1 ranking in financial resources was completely unsurprising. The Yankees for years have had the highest payroll in the game, with the ability to outbid competitors for marquee free agents as necessary. The revenue stream generated by the YES network and the new stadium will allow the Yankees to maintain their financial advantage for years to come.
I was also surprised to see the Yankee baseball operations ranked 3rd (behind the Rays and the Red Sox). Given the lack of respect that Brian Cashman usually receives for being GM of a team with the largest payroll in the league and the fact that he is not Theo Epstein, it was surprising to see them ranked this highly. This was especially true with the bizzarre situation surrounding the signing of Rafael Soriano (and Randy Levine’s meddling), the non-signing of Cliff Lee, and the presence of Freddy Garcia in the 5th spot in the Yankee rotation. Despite these black eyes, however, the Fangraphs staff do appear to be giving Cashman credit for building a strong roster, maintaining a deep farm system, and dealing with the madness that is New York and the Steinbrenner family.
Do these rankings mean that the Yankees will win the World Series this season? Certainly not. But in an offseason where everyone is picking the Red Sox to win the division (including something like 25/25 ESPN writers, and 9/10 writers on this site), I’ll take this ranking as a sign that the Yankees are moving in the right direction, both today and in the future.
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I was wondering if you guys would considered comparing the starting Yankee lineup to that of the Red Sox. I know most are predicting the Sox to outhit the Yankees but I just don’t see it. As unease as people are about Martin he looks better than Saltalmacchia. Cano is coming off of a career year, Pedroia is coming off an injured year. I can’t see Pedroia outperforming Cano. Despite Jeter’s down year he still looks better than Scutaro. Youkillis was out last year for half the season but even still other than is avg he stats really don’t suggest he is as good as Arod. Gonzalez is better than Tex. Crawford is better than gardner. I like Granderson over Ellsbury especially seeing how Granderson improved at the end of last year. Swisher is better than Drew.
Using the numbers from last year the Yanks really do look like a better lineup. I know they are one year older but even so, I still have a better lineup.
Even in terms of the rotation: Sabathia= Lester, Buchholz > Burnett, Hughes > Beckett, Lackey = Nova (Lackey had a bad year last year but maybe just can’t pitch in the East, Nova’s predictions look about similar to those of Lackey’s except for IP maybe). If Garcia can replicate 2010 and Matsuzaka has a similar year to the past 2, they look evenly matched.
I don’t understand why EVERYONE appears to be picking the Sox over the Yanks. From my point of view, the Yankees lineup is better and pitching looks relatively similar (not taking into account that the Yankees ‘pen is far better than that of the Sox).
Can you guys shed any light on this?
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Eric Schultz Reply:
April 2nd, 2011 at 1:02 am
I’m sure someone could compare the lineups using various projection systems (and likely, several writers on this site already have) which would give you an answer. I agree there’s not a huge difference between the Yankee and Boston lineups, definitely within the margin of randomness created by injuries, slumps, career years, etc. It’s pretty easy to envision scenarios where the Yankee offense is better than Boston’s (resurgence from A-Rod, Teixeira, and Jeter, Cano, Gardner, and Swisher maintain their level of performance or improve on their career years, Russell Martin bounces back, etc.) as well as scenarios where Boston’s offense is better.
As for the rotation, I think you’re selling Boston a little short. I would take Lackey over Nova this year, not necessarily because his ceiling is higher for 2011 (one could argue in Nova’s favor there), but because he is much more of a proven commodity. I don’t believe that Lackey will pitch poorly enough to be worthy of a demotion to the minors, but it is possible that Nova could. As for Dice-K vs. Garcia, I agree that’s a total wild card, because we don’t know what a healthy Dice-K is capable of (there’s a huge range of possibilities), but we can bet that Garcia is going to be mediocre to average at best. As for Hughes v. Beckett, I would probably take Hughes too, but Beckett is certainly capable of out-pitching Phil this year, and has a longer track record of success (I do maintain that he is probably the most overrated pitcher in the league).
As for the bullpens, I think the Soriano addition gives the Yankees a pretty clear edge, though Boston’s pen (today’s game withstanding) should be pretty good as well.
I agree a lot of the Boston love is coming from collective shiny new toy syndrome on the part of the media (lest we forget, they did lose two important pieces in Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez in this offseason) who are reacting to the flashy, Yankee-esque moves made in the offseason. I will readily admit that I did pick Boston over the Yankees in our prediction post, but I will defend my decision as an attempt to jinx the Sox. I believe Boston may be slightly better now (maybe 3-4 games better), and this gap could easily be narrowed with a few injuries, breakout seasons, or underachievement.
[Reply]
Ethan Reply:
April 2nd, 2011 at 1:13 am
I guess that’s fair. Most are predicting them to be within 5 games which is actually pretty close. It will most likely come down to who can stay healthy because both teams are older (Yankee average is around 31.5 and I think Boston is about 30).
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