A lot of discussion has been had lately over the Yankees bullpen. Most of the conversation focuses around the Yankees having to use it so often because of the inability of the starting pitching to go deep into games. Often the bullpen is discussed in a negative light. They give up too many runs. They’re over hyped. They’re under performing. I think that’s not really accurate though and taking a look at the numbers, it’s been a pretty good unit so far.
First off, there’s no denying the Yankees have used their bullpen a lot. It’s hard to tell by looking at the numbers because the Yankees have played the fewest amount of games in baseball so far, so I sorted the data by relief innings pitched per games played:
Let’s look at the bad news first. The Yankees right now lead baseball in “Meltdowns”, which is a WPA context stat determining if the relief pitcher made his team more likely to lose or not. If a reliever makes a team 6% more likely to win, they get a shutdown. If he makes them 6% more likely to lose, he receives a meltdown. The Yankees have 12, tied for the lead with the Cardinals and Royals.
The Yankees also have the second lowest HR/FB ratio in baseball as a relief staff, clocking in at 3.7%. That’s obviously an unsustainable rate. xFIP which normalizes for HR/FB luck pegs the bullpen with a 4.02 xFIP which is middle of the pack.
Onto the better signs.
These are the top 15 bullpens sorted by WAR. As you can see, the Yankees stack up extremely well. The troubling notes here would be the extremely low GB% and the HR/FB ratio which will likely regress. In addition to that, the Yankees have the 8th lowest inherited runners scored % in baseball, just 23%.
Look at the teams sorted by -FIP, which is FIP park and league normalized scaled to 100 (100 is average, lower is better).
The Yankees have the best mark in baseball. Additionally, their BABIP is a regular .303 whereas the Giants and Rockies both might be experiencing some BABIP luck at the moment. The reason their xFIP- is 100 (which is exactly average) is because of the HR/FB number- remember that xFIP thinks that’s unsustainable.
So they’ve been better than advertised to this point, that much is clear. Obviously this isn’t predicting performance going forward- this is just a record of what’s already happened. However I think the bullpen should get a bit more recognition for how well they’ve pitched.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
Good stuff, Sean, helps to put things in perspective. The bullpen’s clearly a strength, although it is somewhat troublesome that they lead MLB in meltdowns despite giving up so few home runs, which, as you note, is due for regression.
That being said, the unit’s high LD% rate (3rd worst in the AL) should also correct itself, so hopefully that helps smooth things out a bit.
[Reply]
Can you go a little deeper into what the numbers mean for us? If the Yankees are doing well in -FIP, it means that they are striking out guys, walking guys, and giving up fly balls at good rates. In addition, since their BABIP is average, they aren’t giving up a whole lot of lucky hits.
And yet, they lead the majors in meltdowns–their pitching isn’t helping them win in a lot of cases.
It is because of the number of innings they’ve pitched, that is, being in the game so often before one team gets to build up a big win probability? Or does it have something to do with the Yankees’ run distribution? Or something else?
[Reply]
Sean P Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 9:52 pm
I think they have a lot of Meltdowns (notice they also have a lot of shutdowns tho) because they’ve been used a lot. Moving the WPA by 6% isn’t enormously difficult in either direction.
[Reply]
Professor Longnose Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 10:34 pm
I don’t think so. Their ratio of SDs to MDs is less than 2 to 1, which is middle of the pack. Their bullpen is pitching well, but they are getting comparatively poor results, and it’s not due to luck.
[Reply]
No lefty is a huge deal esp vs Bos n minny 2 likely playoff teams.
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 9:18 pm
Because Boone Logan struggling early on, and looking good in his last outing, means he doesn’t exist?
[Reply]
Here’s an explanation of what goes into FIP- http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/fip/
[Reply]
Girardi The Moron strikes again!
Let’s give up an out down 3-2 in the bottom of the ninth after Jeter leads off with a hit cuz you know, Teixiera or A-Rod will drive in Jeter from 2B, and let’s face it, Granderson won’t get a hit or on base.
I swear if the 2011 Yankees, who are really 7-8, a sub-.500 piece of shit outside of games against the Orioles instead of 12-8, miss the postseason, I want Girardi and Cashman fired upon elimination.
Don’t run me any “This game doesn’t matter” jive. Every game matters and this one will come back to haunt them even more than last night’s game cuz this game was blown by the inexplicable decisions by a lamebrain manager, what Girardi is. Even if the Yankees make the postseason but lose the division by a game thus homefield advantage throughout the A.L. postseason and possibly the entire postseason if whoever on whatever N.L. team hits a homerun off of whoever on whatever A.L. team (or some shit) in the All-Star Game, I will look no further to this game, another horribly managed game by a manager who more and more looks like he was just along for the ride and a beneficiary of Sabathia, Burnett, Teixiera, and Swisher in 2009.
First off, what is he doing taking Nova out after only 92 pitches when Nova hadn’t pitched in 11 days? Stop babying him. One baserunner and oooh take him out, take him out. Always reading his stupid charts instead of going for what he sees cuz he can’t see. Cool Robertson finished the seventh inning but maybe Nova could’ve with as little as one pitch (double-play) and Robertson, not Soriano, could’ve pitched the eighth. Too bad if Soriano doesn’t like it. Robertson has done way more than Soriano has as a Yankee like helping the Yankees win it all in 2009 at a bargain price which he still is.
Oh no, Roe Botardi has to stick with his formula of Soriano in the eighth.
Second, when Jeter leads off your last licks with a single, you don’t give the opposition a fucking out moreover play for the tie, which is what that fucking ridiculous bunt play was an attempt to do. Talk about stupid and weakminded managing. It’s as if he didn’t think the Yankees 2/3/4 hitters could score two runs.
So disgusted with not only Girardi but with this team who lets down when they get great pitching. What else? They can’t draw a good or better guy EVERY time their starter is throwing a gem. Gavin Floyd is a good pitcher but he’s not Roy Halladay or even Mark Buerhle. Lest anyone think I’m ignoring a measly two runs in as many games and ZERO runs without a homerun.
[Reply]
Carl Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 11:26 pm
[sigh] You have got to be kidding me. Such a pathetic rant this is. Where’s your logic?
[Reply]
T.O. Chris Reply:
April 27th, 2011 at 12:34 am
Just don’t feed the troll…. makes life simpler hahaha.
[Reply]