Jorge Posada is hitting .145/.243/.435 this season. According to Joe P. over at Fangraphs, he’s swinging at more bad pitches, making contact less, and continuing downward trends from past years. Almost all of his offensive contribution has come from his 6 home runs. He has just 3 singles other than those, plus 7 walks against a sky-high 19 strikeouts. He is not simply suffering from bad luck – the inputs are bad.
Sure, he has played less than a month of baseball, and has earned just 70 plate appearances. For many players (Say, Nick Swisher), it would be logical to wait out their down streak before even thinking about replacing them. Players can be relied on in the long term to for the most part play to the back of their baseball cards. However, under no circumstances should Jorge Posada be given the benefit of the doubt. This is exactly the type of performance that we should expect to see from a 39 year-old catcher in the twilight of his career. Jorge Posada could right himself, but the weight of probability says that he probably will not. The Yankees should force him to prove that he can still play. If not, they should replace him.
Jesus Montero (once his voice returns to normal pitch, following a ball to the cup this week) is the best possible replacement player that the Yankees could hope for in the case that they need a new designated hitter. He is a 21 year-old super-prospect who brings pretty much nothing to the table except an ability to hit the crap out of the ball while plausibly playing catcher. Before the minor injury, Montero was hitting .407/.400/.525 for Scranton. One could point out that he’s just hitting a lot of singles, while not taking walks or putting the ball out of the ball park. That’s a valid criticism, but its not like Montero has not hit at the Triple-A level before. He played the entire season there in 2010, and was one of the level’s best hitters – completely dominating the league during the second half. The more likely explanation is that Montero’s line is both the product of a small sample size and a player too good for his level being able to hit singles at will. His K rate has stayed at career norms.
If Jesus Montero is called up, he will receive very little playing time at catcher. Russell Martin has resurrected his status as one of the game’s best two-way catchers. Normally, I think that it might be wise long-term planning to keep Montero at Triple-A to work on his defense if he were not going to get playing time in the major leagues. The (good) problem of Martin’s return to form is that there is absolutely no foreseeable time horizon where Montero would be able to get regular playing time in New York. Martin is not a free agent until after the 2012 season. Montero is not going to stay in Triple-A that long. He would serve as the Yankees back-up catcher and designated hitter. Martin, Girardi, and the rest of the Yankee coaching staff would work on his catching skills on the side, while he (hopefully) mashes opposition pitchers as a designated hitter.
Jorge Posada, for the time being, would become a bench player. Jesus Montero would take Gustavo Molina’s roster spot. Perhaps over time, Posada could play his way back into some DH at bats. However, I do believe that this would be a waste of a roster spot. If a better option emerges (Say, Jorge Vazquez, Brandon Laird, or someone else), the Yankees should consider ending his career. It won’t be the way we wanted a Yankee great to go, but the 2011 Yankees deserve the best possible roster in order to compete in baseball’s toughest division.
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short sighted and reactionary. it’s not even may.
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I’d say it is still too early to make this move. While I agree that this change should and will happen soon, you have to give a player with the history of Jorge Posada more time to prove he’s done than you probably should. Just out of respect for his accomplishments and his career in the Bronx.
However, if by mid to late May he is still a three outcome guy hitting in the low .200s, then this move is more than justified. Montero’s injury (hopefully not too serious), gives Jorge a week or two more to work out of his slump. No rush just yet.
In terms of how Montero and Posada can co-exist, you worry about that problem when you come to it. I’m not in favor of forcing Posada to retire mid-season, but there is a way to begin to phase him out as you give Montero more at bats.
Again, we generally agree that Montero is the current and future answer to the DH position, especially with Martin seemingly locking down the catcher spot. But, I think we should be more cautious in terms of when the Yankees completely hand over the reins. One of the final members of the “Core Four” deserves that at least.
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EJ Fagan Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 2:16 pm
I grew up with Jorge Posada. I definitely respect his history, just like I did with Bernie Williams. The Yankees kept Bernie around for way too long. They respected his career, and it hurt the team. I don’t think this is proper. What if the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox are separated by one game at the end of the season? Its not at all implausible to see keeping Jorge Posada around as the tipping point which causes the Yankees to miss the playoffs.
I also think that Ken Griffey Jr’s early retirement is pretty solid precedent that teams can do this to a player, no matter how legendary their history is.
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jay destro Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 2:30 pm
EJ this isn’t about legends… this is about how much money you have dedicated to Jorge Posada and the fact that he’s just slumping. They have played 19 games. That’s 19 out of 162, Posada isn’t a rookie with options you can bump somewhere else, not to mention he has a certain amount of capital built up that allows him to work through his troubles if they aren’t injury related. To say, “OK Jorge, you’re out!” in the first month of the season is to basically admit that your organization is broken.
This makes sense if Jorge was injured and incapable of DHing, but that’s not the case, he’s simply getting off to a rough start. By making some sort of blanket statement that this is the inevitable and you have to bench Posada is simply a reactionary statement made by someone who isn’t looking big picture.
Sorry EJ, this is different than Junior, this is just what it is. Jorge isn’t going to hang em’ up because Montero is hitting well. He’s going to work through it because he’s too proud to walk away, as a Yankee fan for many years you should be quite aware of this attribute.
While your argument solely based on CURRENT numbers is sound, your recommendation falls on deaf ears due to the career long numbers Jorge has put up. Just be patient, Montero will have his time here or elsewhere.
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EJ Fagan Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 3:05 pm
First off, I think we can make some qualitative statements about Jorge Posada’s 2011 performance. He’s looked slow. He’s had trouble catching up to fastballs. He’s been swinging early in the count. He’s had trouble with off speed pitches. These judgments may be subjective, but they are important given the small sample size.
I don’t think that this is at all about a broken organization. Conversely, I think a broken organization is one that lets failing players fail for too long. Its not like the Yankees are going to call up Kevin Thompson to replace Posada. Jesus Montero is quite literally the best replacement player available in all of baseball. He’s got over a year of Triple-A experience, is hitting the crap out of the ball, and fulfills Posada’s role.
I’d agree with you if the Yankees didn’t possess qualified alternatives. They do. Posada may recover, but how much? What are the odds that he’d be better than whatever Jesus Montero would produce in the same spot, given those qualitative observations?
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jay destro Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 3:39 pm
EJ,
Montero isn’t even reasonable option at the moment due to the fact that he’s out for a few games. By the time he gets his timing back and ready to hit, Jorge could be hitting. 19 games out of 162. Give him at least 1/4 of the season before taking him behind the shed and shooting him dude.
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EJ Fagan Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 3:47 pm
Montero’s injury delays this, no doubt. Who knows how long he’s out for. And sure, Jorge Posada could introduce new information in that time to change my opinion. But assuming nothing changes between the two (say, Montero returns and his timing looks good for 1 or 2 games and Posada continues current trends), then I would be fine with the move.
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jay destro Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 3:57 pm
I don’t see it happening unless there is an injury. It’s just not Cashman’s M.O. to give up on his veterans so quickly. Not to mention what it would do to the clubhouse. We all heard Jorge grumble about not catching during the winter, the specter of NO playing time is pretty scary. Let’s not bury old man Jorge just yet. He’s shown pop but his approach is shakey. He’s getting in his first time as the regular DH, so there’s got to be some margin for adjustment. To cut bait at this point would be the equivalent of “selling low” and not prudent.
A roster crunch might be an issue. I severely doubt that they would just cut ties with Jorge mid-season, especially since this is the last year of his deal. Cut his playing time? Yes, but not the player outright.
If only Montero played LF instead of just C/DH, his call up would be a no brainer. But if he’s coming up and Cervelli is coming off the DL, you have 3 catchers and a PH/DH in Posada. That is not really optimal roster flexibility, and then who does Montero replace? Not Chavez or Jones, and they can’t have nobody to back up SS so Nunez is safe. It would need to be Gardner, Posada or a pitcher, but the team seems very reluctant to dip below 12 pitchers (and should be, considering the ?s that are 3-5 in the rotation). Then if you demote Gardner, you are relying on Jones vs. RHs and LHs, plus making Eduardo Nunez your 4th OFer (yikes).
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EJ Fagan Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 2:17 pm
I probably should have said this explicitly: Cervelli winds up in the minor leagues. Montero backs up Martin, even while DHing. Basically, how the Tigers are handling V-Mart.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 9:03 pm
The only problem I have with that is Martin’s injury history. We all hoe he is healthy for the next two years but honestly he could get injured at any second, having no one off the bench would cause you to lose your DH for any game Martin has to leave.
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not a chance this happens…unless you trade Cervelli. Otherwise you leave him at AAA where he continue to catch on a regular basis. If they bring anyone up to be a pure DH, my money is on Jorge Vasquez
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BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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The team will want to give Posada more time for his batting to straighten up. And, by keeping Montero off the ML roster until some magic date (is it in June?), the Yanks can retain team control of him for an extra year. However, once that magic date passes, I could see the team bringing Montero up as their regular DH.
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EJ Fagan Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 2:19 pm
The Yankees have already passed the point where they retain Montero for another year (its like two weeks). May 20th or so is the date in which they would avoid him going to an extra year of arbitration (Super-2 status). But that’s really just a matter of a few million dollars when all is said and done. The Yankees could very well sign him to a long term deal before he goes to arbitration.
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This is a move for July. Not April 25. Bizarre.
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Why doesn’t Jorge Posada deserve the benefit of the doubt? He isn’t just any 39-year old. He is a borderline hall of famer who had an OPS+ of 116 last year, despite battling several injuries, including a concussion.
Furthermore, is the idea of fan loyalty dead and buried? It seems like so much of the Yankees’ fan base is ready to shovel dirt on Jeter and Posada. I realize that winning is paramount, but isn’t there also room for giving past heros a “benefit”? I’d like to think so.
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EJ Fagan Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 2:56 pm
Here’s my problem with the loyalty argument: How much loyalty do you give them? Choosing your second-best option over your best option because of loyalty, in terms of probability, means you lose potential wins. Is loyalty worth a potential loss of 2 wins? 1 win? 10 wins? Is it worth a playoff appearance?
I think the Yankees should try to maximize the number of games they win every single season. When you start making decisions based off loyalty, you end up with a shortstop signed a 17 million dollars through 40 years old who would be lucky to hit an OPS+ of 85 through the life of a contract.
We can honor our great players in other ways. That’s why we retire Jerseys, have Jorge Posada day, etc.
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William J. Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 3:26 pm
You give them as much loyalty as it takes to determine that they can no longer to do the job. I don’t think 80 plate appearances come close to that parameter.
As to your second question, yes, I would rather lose a playoff appearance than cast aside a legend. Considering the hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue that the Yankees take in, and the thousands of dollars that I contribute to it, I have no problem with $17 million going to Derek Jeter. I realize that I am more sentimental than most, but I guess I don’t the point in rushing to judgment, especially when it seems as if it’s being done with so much derision.
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Meowy Wowy Reply:
April 27th, 2011 at 4:34 pm
Not smart at all.
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Professor Longnose Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 8:00 pm
OK, so how many more at bats do you give Jeter before you cut him and eat the contract?
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T.O. Chris Reply:
April 26th, 2011 at 9:07 pm
Based on what I saw and believed last year I would never have re-signed Jeter in the first place, and I believe EJ and me agree on that.
Trying to compare those 2 situations is different since Posada is in the last year of a 4 year deal and Jeter is in the first.
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What is too early?
Jorge Posada’s 84 OPS+ has netted us -1.0 RAR this season, making him the 3rd worst DH in the AL (to Guerrero and Jack Cust). If Montero were to hit, say, a modest .280/.341/.453, Buster Posey’s current line, 7.9 RAR, he would already be worth almost 1 more win than Jorge Posada.
That’s less than 1 month. What would waiting for July cost us?
Jorge Posada is old. Old players at some point get bad. The numbers show that he’s not just getting unlucky: he’s just not playing well. At some point, the Yankees have to realize this. Or, they leave him there for most of the season, sacrificing wins while hoping that he defies the odds and plays despite his age. 39 year-old former catchers who are producing horribly at the plate do not deserve the benefit of the doubt.
That’s a terrible move. I’m a Devils fan. We learned very well this season that waiting to make a change could mean the difference between the playoffs and going home early.
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Let Montero continue to catch in the minors and work on his defense and game calling. If you could make a case to replace Posada at DH with anyone, it would be with Chavez who has earned more AB’s.
However, I think it’s wrong to assume that Posada has fallen off a cliff though just based on his age. He was productive offensively last year even with being banged up from catching. It’s only 19 games and I wonder how much not catching is messing with him mentally. I might give him a start or two behind the plate on Martin’s rest days and see if that would help clear his head and improve his approach at the plate.
I agree that they can’t wait until July if he doesn’t improve but its way too early to make that kind of move.
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Dude, u cant cut Jorge over a bad april. C’mon he’s still figuring out DHing. And you can’t have a bench player who can’t play in the field or pinch run. That’s a huge waste of a roster spot. DHing in the bigs will only hurt Jesus’s stock. Just let him mash in AAA and he will either get better at catching and be your catcher of the future or he’ll be a trade chip.
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This seems like a case of someone losing sight of the fact that the Yankees play and make personnel decisions in the real world and not on a piece of paper, I’m sorry. It’s a tired cliche and I’m loathe to use it since it’s so often used in the wrong context, but I think it applies here.
For one thing, to decide on April 26 that Posada is done is overly-reactionary.
More importantly, if the Yankees were to bench (not for one or two games, but permanently make him a bench player) or even, as you suggested, cut ties with Jorge Posada, they’d run an incredibly high risk of infuriating some pretty important people in that clubhouse. That risk is so high that I’d peg it at about a 99% probability. And I’m certainly not one to worry too much about these guys’ feelings, but this would be like dropping a bomb in that clubhouse.
Again… The Yankees are not making these moves on a piece of paper, these are real people we’re dealing with here. Nobody’s proposing the Yankees play Posada every day all season long, out of some sense of loyalty, if the guy never rises above the Mendoza Line.
There is no way that making Posada a bench player today, or cutting ties with him (!!!), is the right move. Not on April 26.
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I think Montero makes sense because even if Posada improves, he’s not likely to give the Yankees what Montero almost certainly will. We can keep Jorge on the roster and use him a couple times a week-especially when Martin gets a day off and Jesus is behind the plate.
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The game isn’t played on a stat sheet. Their r real personalities involved and chemistry n clubhouse issues to look into. If he’s still hitting 180 in June than I can see Jesus up. But show a little patience.
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I always love the team chemistry argument, “wait until July or August because it will hurt the team” stuff. Players are never going to be good with other players they came up with being benched or cut, It won’t be less bad in June or July than May. If Jorge doesn’t turn things around mid May I fully agree with Montero being the guy, I would give him another month but that’s it.
I also still don’t see the problem with Montero being the yankees DH longterm, it always comes back to let him improve his D or he gains trade status. Why? You can’t have value in a David Ortiz light DH? Boston might say otherwise.
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
April 27th, 2011 at 4:18 am
i agree…but then we must deal with gardner and swisher ..we wait for jorge and jeter to come around because who they are to the yanks..but those other two must be dealt with now.swish looks just as bad as jorge..gardner is nothing more than a bench player.. late defense and pinch runner .he has the single worst swing from a left handed bat i have ever seen.. tonight’s HR almost made me fall off the couch..had to be a mistake..a great one but not his swing.if he could pull the ball like that he would be a .300 hitter..and i don’t mean for power.
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i am truly shocked at the reaction here. its the no brainer move. lets face it monteros best position is the vmart pos. dh/c/1b. he is ready and posada is clearly done. eyes and stats show this aint bad luck. jlhe looks finished. i give him to may 15. thats out of respect only. there is simply zero chance of getting more production oylut of posada than montero. logic says that our eyes say that EVERY projection system said that. jorge got his respect in a four year contract that took a catcher to 40 for gods sake. eventually everyone is replaced
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I’ll go with EJ on this, Posada is toast! Darn, last year we could see his bat slowing down…he was once, the best fastball hitter on the team…age catches up to everyone, Jeter included. Posada has never been even avg, as a DH, and it is showing this year also!
I have a feeling we will learn, it was the “Brothers Grim” that gave Jeter that contract, not Cashman. Cashman would have gone one year with options…maybe two years!
The one to cut for Monty is easy…Jones. That way we have Cheves(SP?) and Monty, a lefty and righty.
The reason older players (up to a point) get the benefit of the doubt, is because they have shown they can do the job. But once one reaches the old age point…not so much. Younger players like Granderson (last year) and Brett this year are given a chance to get it together. They are to valuable to give up on, changing your whole style of hitting is hard, very hard work. Brett is trying to change almost every thing about his hitting. Last year, Granderson had to change a couple of things and it took him about six/eight weeks.
Those that think of Brett being a 4th OF or bench player…may try seeing how many games he has saved this year alone with his glove work alone. Last year the same thing was said of Brett but, a funny thing happened…he ended up with the 2nd best avg., on the team.
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The Yankees aren’t going to end Jorge Posada’s career midseason. If he can’t hit a lick he’ll go on the DL with some kind of phantom strain and then get a rehab assignment to get ABs to try and hit minor league pitching. If he still can’t hit by the Fall he’ll keep his spot on the 40 man roster. Then he won’t be on the playoff roster and that’s that. Ending his career midseason after 17 years with the same franchise? Baseball is a cold business but it’s not that cold.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
April 28th, 2011 at 4:12 am
Ken Griffey Jr says that you can indeed have a career ended mid season, and Griffey is way better than Posada and probably means more to Seattle than Posada does to New York since he is the least important member of the core four.
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I think Posada deserves at least another two or three weeks to see if he can get out of the slump. On the other hand he could be costing us wins now and I would like to see Chavez in his spot.
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I believe that Jorge Posada still has it in him. Look at Big Papi two years ago. He didn’t start hitting until July and started hitting bombs. Posada will work hard because he doesn’t want to be replaced, especially that easily.
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