Your 2011 Opening Day rotation
As we all know, the biggest story of the 2010-2011 offseason was the state of the Yankee rotation, and how the team could possibly make it through an entire season in the aftermath of the Cliff Lee rebuff and Andy Pettitte retirement.
Tryouts were held for the 4th and 5th slots in the rotation during Spring Training, and it was finally announced that won the fourth slot while Freddy Garcia would be the fifth starter. made a strong case for fifth starter — and the team may have erred in not placing Colon in the rotation at the outset — but whether you agree with the reasoning or not, Garcia’s more recent track record of pitching at the Major League level won out, and Colon will start the year in the bullpen.
Ultimately, however, the man selected to begin the year as the Yankees’ fifth starter is pretty irrelevant — if Garcia totally bombs, Colon will likely slide into the rotation; if Colon then bombs, the Yankees would probably give a shot while they continue to get their AAA arms innings in the minors; and if Millwood bombs, we’d likely start seeing a parade of Hector Noesi, David Phelps, Andrew Brackman et. al. summoned to the Bronx.
I’ve compiled the following table featuring the Yankees’ Opening Day rotations going back to 2003. Bear in mind that this is simply how the rotation shook out at the very beginning of each season; obviously there was quite a bit of turnover in many of these years — in particular, in 2004, only made one start, but it was the first fifth start of the season so that’s why I’ve included him. De Paula was followed by one start, and somehow the schedule shook out so that the Yankees only needed to call on a fifth starter twice until made his debut on May 1.
| 2003 | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP |
| 8.08 | 2.47 | 3.91 | 3.60 | |
| 7.78 | 2.16 | 4.02 | 3.35 | |
| 8.18 | 1.68 | 3.40 | 3.09 | |
| 4.30 | 0.87 | 4.21 | 3.97 | |
| 5.06 | 2.62 | 5.73 | 3.97 | |
| 2004 | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP |
| 7.21 | 2.19 | 4.59 | 3.95 | |
| Kevin Brown | 5.66 | 2.39 | 4.09 | 4.03 |
| 6.82 | 2.73 | 4.91 | 4.78 | |
| Jose Contreras | 7.71 | 3.95 | 5.64 | 5.83 |
| 1.42 | 1.42 | 7.11 | 7.31 | |
| 2005 | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP |
| Randy Johnson | 8.42 | 1.87 | 3.79 | 3.78 |
| 5.04 | 1.62 | 4.77 | 4.89 | |
| 7.11 | 2.35 | 4.41 | 4.01 | |
| 4.81 | 4.52 | 6.08 | 5.38 | |
| Kevin Brown | 6.14 | 2.33 | 6.50 | 3.61 |
| 2006 | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP |
| Randy Johnson | 7.55 | 2.63 | 5.00 | 4.27 |
| 7.84 | 1.60 | 3.51 | 3.46 | |
| 3.15 | 2.15 | 3.64 | 3.91 | |
| 4.85 | 5.19 | 6.58 | 6.03 | |
| 5.35 | 3.63 | 4.42 | 4.28 | |
| 2007 | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP |
| 3.18 | 1.59 | 4.76 | 4.21 | |
| 5.91 | 2.83 | 4.09 | 3.86 | |
| 5.46 | 2.12 | 5.16 | 4.04 | |
| 6.90 | 4.84 | 6.90 | 6.70 | |
| 4.01 | 2.92 | 4.01 | 5.67 | |
| 2008 | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP |
| 5.12 | 3.32 | 4.07 | 3.74 | |
| 6.74 | 1.39 | 3.37 | 3.32 | |
| 6.09 | 3.97 | 6.62 | 4.34 | |
| 5.89 | 5.89 | 8.35 | 5.64 | |
| 6.97 | 2.43 | 4.54 | 3.71 | |
| 2009 | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP |
| 7.71 | 2.62 | 3.37 | 3.39 | |
| 6.21 | 4.07 | 9.64 | 5.38 | |
| 8.48 | 4.22 | 4.04 | 4.33 | |
| 6.84 | 3.51 | 4.16 | 4.15 | |
| 7.60 | 4.38 | 4.78 | 4.84 | |
| 2010 | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP |
| 7.46 | 2.80 | 3.18 | 3.54 | |
| 6.99 | 3.76 | 5.26 | 4.83 | |
| 7.05 | 2.86 | 3.28 | 3.85 | |
| 6.92 | 3.72 | 5.32 | 5.56 | |
| 7.45 | 2.96 | 4.19 | 4.25 | |
| 2011 Projected | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP |
| 7.65 | 2.51 | 3.36 | 3.50 | |
| 7.81 | 3.67 | 4.50 | 4.28 | |
| 7.99 | 2.97 | 3.85 | 3.96 | |
| 6.16 | 4.03 | 4.78 | 4.44 | |
| Freddy Garcia | 5.77 | 2.74 | 4.61 | 4.61 |
Again, while several of these names were jettisoned at various points throughout the season, I think this helps put things in perspective to a certain extent. Still upset about Sabathia-Burnett-Hughes-Nova-Garcia? Well in 2007 the Yankees kicked the season off with a rotation of Pavano-Pettitte-Mussina-Igawa-Rasner. And if you really want to feel better about the 2011 rotation, sear your eyes with the Opening Day rotations of the 2004-2006 squads.
For additional comparison, below is a chart taking the straight, unweighted averages of the above fivesomes’ seasonal numbers and comparing them against each other. Yes, I know the numbers are skewed somewhat due to the fact that each of the pitchers in each rotation threw a different amount of innings (and in some cases vastly so), but the actual combined staff numbers likely aren’t all that far off from these rough estimates:
Unsurprisingly, the 2003, and 2009-2011 staffs all rank near the top of the K/9 pile. The 2003 staff was beastly, and their numbers would be even prettier if not for Jeff Weaver weighing them down.
The 2007 opening fivesome doesn’t come out of this quick-and-dirty comparison all that well, and the 2008 staff isn’t much better, though that grouping’s FIP actually somehow averaged out to second-best.
Interestingly, the unweighted average of the 2011 staff’s ERA projections (4.22) is the lowest out of all nine groups charted here, beating out the 2003 staff by 0.03 of a run. The 2011 staff’s unweighted average FIP projection comes in third, behind 2003 and 2008.
Anyway, the moral of the story here is, it’s probably best not to get too caught up in who the Yankees start the season out with in the back end of their rotation. However, if you do want to get caught up in it, the Yankees have clearly trotted out worse fivesomes to start their season within the last nine years.
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All I want to know is how the frak did the 2004 team win 101 games.
[Reply]
Moshe Mandel Reply:
March 30th, 2011 at 9:26 am
Amazing, isn’t it? The fact that they were up 3-0 on Boston is just as amazing as the fact that the Red Sox came back.
[Reply]
Matt Warden Reply:
March 30th, 2011 at 10:00 am
Nice article, Lar. What’s equally incredible is the drop off between 2003-2004. Yikes!
[Reply]
“Tryouts were held for the 4th and 5th slots in the rotation during Spring Training, and it was finally announced that Ivan Nova won the fourth slot while Freddy Garcia would be the fifth starter. Bartolo Colon made a strong case for fifth starter — and the team may have erred in not placing Colon in the rotation at the outset — but whether you agree with the reasoning or not, Garcia’s more recent track record of pitching at the Major League level won out, and Colon will start the year in the bullpen.”
One point re the Colon/Garcia stuff… I think we’re losing sight of where each of the “competitors” for rotation slots started in the competition and what the goals were for each of them. Yes, Garcia, Nova and Colon all were “competing” for rotation slots, but that doesn’t mean they started on even footing or were ever really competing for the same thing. This is obviously just my hunch, but based on what we saw, heard, and know about each of the three pitchers, it appears to me that with Garcia the Yanks were going to put him in the rotation to start the season if he was healthy and did not exhibit a significant performance downgrade (Spring Training stats not being the most important thing they were looking for, there), and with Nova the Yanks were going to give him a rotation slot if he was healthy and appeared to continue his development. With Colon, however, I think the Yanks weren’t looking at giving him a rotation slot if he was healthy and looked ok in Spring Training, I think the attainable goal the Yanks set for Colon was simply making the roster and earning a shot as a 6th or 7th starter option – in case one of Nova/Garcia were either not healthy or had some unforeseen performance disaster. And, in that sense, it’s not like the Yanks told Colon “go compete for a spot” and then disregarded his apparent “victory” in that competition. He did what he needed to do to simply get back into MLB, at this point, and maybe he’ll get a shot in the rotation at some point during the season. That’s what he won for himself.
I just point this out because I don’t think we’re always keeping the context in mind when we discuss the Garcia/Colon “competition,” and I think a lot of people are mischaracterizing the nature of the competition in the first place. I’ve seen people saying “it was a competition, and Colon looks the best today between him and Garcia, so he should be in the rotation,” and then people respond by saying “by that logic Javier Vazquez should be playing first base over Tex” or something of the sort, and I think both sides of that argument are looking at the world in terms that are entirely too strict. There’s a pretty significant gray area here.
One more quick point… It’s entirely possible the Yanks just don’t think Garcia would be (a) effective or (b) content with a bullpen role to start the season, so they want to see what they have in him before they cut bait and see what Colon can do in the rotation.
(Also, just to clarify, I’m clearly not disagreeing with anything Larry wrote here, just commenting on this issue in general.)
[Reply]
Moshe Mandel Reply:
March 30th, 2011 at 9:40 am
I agree with everything here. It’s not like the Yankees watched spring training and said Garcia > Colon. They never were on equal footing, and rightfully so. Now, I would have liked to get what they could from Colon while he is hot, but the team seems to actually believe he can stay healthy and contribute out of the pen.
[Reply]
Larry Koestler Reply:
March 30th, 2011 at 9:53 am
Very well put, Joe. And that’s also why I wound up not really harping about my preference for Colon over Garcia in the rotation, given that there were clearly other factors at play aside from spring performance.
[Reply]
Reply:
March 30th, 2011 at 9:45 am
Oops… Obviously I meant Jorge Vazquez, not Javier. Fucking Javy.
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fantastic job larry, ive been telling people this for a while now. the yankees haven’t had a quality rotation 1-5 in a long time but because they run out an elite offense yearly and sometimes an above average bullpen “like this year” there almost always guaranteed to win 90 games. 2004 especially shows how good this offense is each year. in fact i pray for the day where the yankees have a quality starter at each rotation spot. “maybe the killer b’s will provise some answer to that.”
[Reply]
bullpen update: looks like ayala chosen instead of garrison. interesting choice
[Reply]
Larry Koestler Reply:
March 30th, 2011 at 10:04 am
Interesting. I imagine this was due to the fact that Garrison not only has no MLB experience but also had a fairly rough spring (10.1 innings of 5.23 ERA ball), while Ayala has some MLB experience and was pretty excellent in the spring (11.1 innings, one earned run).
[Reply]
i actually like ayala. hes had a pretty solid if unspectacular career.
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