(The following is being syndicated from The Captain’s Blog).
Ever since (and even before) the ink dried on his contract extension, there has been a lot of talk about “moving” , whether it be down in the batting order or to one of the corner positions on the field. So, not surprisingly, Joe Girardi’s recent decision to tinker with his batting order during spring training generated a bit of a buzz.
Before last night’s exhibition game against Tampa, found himself leading off, while Jeter batted second. Judging by some of the reaction, you’d have thought this constituted a revolutionary change. Even if the move was made on Opening Day, instead of during the exhibition schedule, it still wouldn’t have been a big deal. After all, over the course of his career, Jeter’s position in the lineup has regularly changed to fit the team’s roster at the time.
Most Common Yankees’ Leadoff Hitters, 1996-2010
| Year | Leader | Second | Third |
| 1996 | Wade Boggs (79) | Derek Jeter (40) | Tim Raines (38) |
| 1997 | Derek Jeter (102) | Tim Raines (52) | Scott Pose (6) |
| 1998 | Chuck Knoblauch (150) | Homer Bush (9) | Derek Jeter (3) |
| 1999 | Chuck Knoblauch (148) | Scott Brosius (4) | Chad Curtis (4) |
| 2000 | Chuck Knoblauch (101) | Derek Jeter (21) | Ricky Ledee (13) |
| 2001 | Chuck Knoblauch (125) | Derek Jeter (26) | Alfonso Soriano (7) |
| 2002 | Alfonso Soriano (150) | Derek Jeter (10) | Enrique Wilson (1) |
| 2003 | Alfonso Soriano (141) | Derek Jeter (20) | Enrique Wilson (1) |
| 2004 | Derek Jeter (62) | Bernie Williams (47) | Kenny Lofton (41) |
| 2005 | Derek Jeter (154) | Tony Womack (8) | |
| 2006 | Johnny Damon (144) | Melky Cabrera (17) | Bernie Williams (1) |
| 2007 | Johnny Damon (123) | Melky Cabrera (32) | Bobby Abreu (5) |
| 2008 | Johnny Damon (131) | Brett Gardner (12) | Melky Cabrera (9) |
| 2009 | Derek Jeter (147) | Brett Gardner (11) | Johnny Damon (4) |
| 2010 | Derek Jeter (137) | Brett Gardner (25) |
Source: Baseball-reference.com
In 1996, Jeter gradually made his way from the bottom of the lineup to the top before establishing himself as the primary leadoff hitter during the World Series. Then, despite starting 1997 by hitting .373/.471/.542 mostly from the leadoff slot, the reigning rookie of the year was dropped all the way to seventh when Tim Raines was activated from the disabled list. Following a prolonged slump at the bottom of the order, Jeter eventually resurfaced back at the top. In 1998, the acquisition of led to Jeter’s installation as the permanent number two hitter, where he remained for most of the next six seasons. When was traded after the 2003 season, Jeter was again enlisted to be the leadoff hitter, but that assignment corresponded with one of the worst slumps of his career. Bernie Williams filled in the first spot for a stretch, but once he regained his swing, Jeter returned to the top and continued leading off for the next two seasons. In 2007 and 2008, Jeter and swapped slots in the order, and then in 2009, switched once again. So should anyone be surprised that Jeter, who batted leadoff for most of 2010, once again finds himself with an undetermined position in the order?
The brief history less above could just as easily have been accomplished by displaying Jeter’s career stats from the leadoff and number two positions in the batting order. Although the Yankees’ shortstop has been moved back and forth numerous times during his career, the remarkable thing is it seems to have had no impact on his performance. In statistically significant samples, Jeter has posted nearly identical batting lines in his two most prominent batting order positions. In other words, Jeter’s willingness to adjust has been matched only by his ability to adapt.
Derek Jeter’s Career Lineup Splits
| G | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| Batting 1st | 732 | 3481 | 568 | 83 | 337 | 90 | 0.313 | 0.385 | 0.454 | 0.839 |
| Batting 2nd | 1270 | 5869 | 939 | 133 | 656 | 195 | 0.314 | 0.384 | 0.456 | 0.840 |
| Batting 3rd | 128 | 573 | 86 | 9 | 66 | 21 | 0.339 | 0.411 | 0.457 | 0.868 |
| Batting 4th | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.200 |
| Batting 5th | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Batting 6th | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Batting 7th | 45 | 193 | 25 | 2 | 20 | 6 | 0.251 | 0.333 | 0.345 | 0.678 |
| Batting 8th | 26 | 83 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 0.311 | 0.386 | 0.500 | 0.886 |
| Batting 9th | 91 | 343 | 60 | 6 | 44 | 10 | 0.326 | 0.375 | 0.435 | 0.811 |
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Regardless of whether Girardi bats him first or second, it probably won’t matter to Jeter, so it really shouldn’t matter to anyone else. Not only are the differences in the statistical projections negligible, but there is nothing about the change that would imply a demotion. Having said that, a word of caution seems to be in order. Although there’s no arguing against Gardner’s potential to be a very good leadoff hitter, he hasn’t exactly established himself in the major leagues. Oddly, the same people who are touting Gardner’s .383 OBP in 2010, seem to be forgetting or, even worse, dismissing Jeter’s career mark of .385.
It’s hard to shake off concern about Jeter’s relatively poor 2010 season, but that doesn’t mean we should write him off just yet. As an aging shortstop, Jeter faces many historic obstacles, but his career has been defined by extraordinary performances. Hall of Fame-caliber players reach their plateau by exceeding what’s expected and overcoming challenges that seem insurmountable. It remains to be seen whether Jeter will rebound in 2011, but it would be foolish to begin with the assumption that he will not.
Jeter’s track record demands that Girardi begin the season with his shortstop batting in an integral part of the lineup…not because he owes homage to a legend, but because legends have a unique ability to perform. Sadly, it seems as if many Yankees’ fans have turned Jeter’s great career against him…opting to focus on one bad season instead of a prolific career. Hopefully, Girardi isn’t as rash in his judgment.
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“Sadly, it seems as if many Yankees’ fans have turned Jeter’s great career against him opting to focus on one bad season instead of a prolific career.”
While I agree Jeter has earned the right to to start the year leading off that doesn’t buy him a very long leash before he is reeled in and has to drop in the order, at a certain point you have to look at that “one bad season” and if it continues realize it’s likely that 2009 was the outlier of the new normal and he was able to have one final great season because “legends have a unique ability to perform”.
As you can see if you take out 2009 Jeter is showing classic signs of a steady decline in age, when you consider that most all time great players end up having one final great season it becomes more likely that that is all Jeter had in 2009.
2007- .322/.388/.452, .369 wOBA, 12 HRs
2008- .300/.363/.408, .343 wOBA, 11 HRs
2010- .270/.340/.370, .320 wOBA, 10 HRs
2009- .334/.406/.465, .390 wOBA 18 HRs
It’s likely that had Jeter put up his 2009 numbers in 2007 and then steadily decline from the until now, instead of having one good season in between, that he wouldn’t have even gotten the contract he did and many more people would consider Derek done.
I assume a slight bounce back for Jeter over last seasons numbers for no other reason than hope it happens but honestly I am not expecting much more than .280/.350/.390 – .290/.360/.400, I don’t think he will get all the way back to his 2008 numbers however and while that is an upgrade it isn’t enough to keep him leading off all year if Gardner repeats last year and I don’t ever see him coming close to 2010 again.
Ultimately I think the lineup will be better off with Jeter hitting 6-8 in the order and Gardner, Swisher and Granderson making up the top 2 spots depending on who the starting pitcher is and who has the hot bat.
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RL Reply:
March 18th, 2011 at 3:49 pm
Well stated, with statistics to back up your opinion. Can’t argue with those, as much as I’d like to. I, too, hope for a return of a top-performing Jeter, but your numbers for 2011 are probably more likely than my hope for a .298/.375/.410 or better line. And even that doesn’t match up with his career norm. It’s highly unlikely for a 37 year old Jeter to meet those standards.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
March 18th, 2011 at 3:58 pm
There is nothing wrong with hope, and trust me I will be doing all the praying to the baseball gods I can that Jeter proves me wrong, but a lot of people just assume that Jeter had one bad year and will just turn it on because of who he is and in the post-steroid era that just doesn’t happen anymore.
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RL Reply:
March 18th, 2011 at 5:23 pm
“and in the post-steroid era ”
Wait, you’re saying …. Nevermind. :-)
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T.O. Chris Reply:
March 18th, 2011 at 5:38 pm
No for the record I don’t believe Jeter ever took steroids, my point as I am sure you got was simply that people have looked at 35-38 as being very productive seasons in a players career in more recent times and we have found out why in even more recent times than that and we can’t expect numbers we might once have at this age.
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William J. Reply:
March 18th, 2011 at 4:22 pm
Will Jeter rebound to 2009 levels? Probably not, but he was outstanding that season.
Here’s another number: Gardner’s wOBA was .358. Will he repeat that again? If not, even a slightly improved Jeter would be more productive.
If Jeter really is in a deep decline, the Yankees can adjust, but I don’t get the rush to send him to the scrap heap. I hope Gardner really is a .383 OBP player,but at some point pitchers will learn to challenge him more.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
March 18th, 2011 at 5:45 pm
I’m not sold on Gardner yet either which is why I agree with the premise of letting him start the year in the place he is accustomed to hitting, and if we are looking at the whole lineup Jeter leading off is better for Granderson to occasionally hit 2nd because with Gardner, Granderson and Teixeira all back to back to back it’s too easy to bring in a LHP and neutralize the top 3 of the lineup. The idea of him dropping in the lineup however shouldn’t be as offensive as it is being portrayed, at some point you have to do what is best for the team and if that is dropping to 7th in the order come July then Jeter should stick to the words he has always preached and allow them to drop him without protest.
I think we should take the name off the player when making this decision because if Gardner had put up those 4 years Jeter has I really don’t think this post would exist, everyone would just assume he wasn’t leading off and was dropping in the order, no one would be giving him the benefit of a comeback to his 2009 numbers.
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William J. Reply:
March 18th, 2011 at 6:56 pm
Dropping Jeter isn’t an offensive notion. It’s just not the right time. I guess I just don’t understand why so many people seem ready to assume Jeter’s days as a good offensive player are in the past.
If it’s May 15 and Jeter is still hitting poorly and showing no signs of adapting to his adjustments, then it might be time to make a lineup change. Until then, I think a Hall of Famer deserves the benefit of the doubt, especially when the alternatives being suggested aren’t clearly better options.Finally, if Gardner had Jeter’s track record, he’d also deserve the same level of patience.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
March 18th, 2011 at 7:01 pm
That’s my point exactly we only give him more leeway than we would any other player because his name is Jeter, but age doesn’t stop applying because he is Jeter so at a certain point we may be forced to realize he is old and losing a step. I agree this isn’t the time to make the change but I also can’t blame people for being quick with the leash on Jeter when they would be as quick with anyone not named Jeter, a name shouldn’t save you from answering for reality.
Dontrelle Willis was my favorite pitcher in baseball and still is one of my favorite people in the sport but I wouldn’t give him a chance in a rotation because of that so I won’t give Jeter anymore time at leadoff than I would anyone else struggling. I will give anyone time to produce but they don’t have forever and your name doesn’t buy you more time to me.
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William J. Reply:
March 18th, 2011 at 7:10 pm
I don’t think you give him more leeway because his name is Jeter…you give him leeway because of how good he has been for so long. That’s why his leash should be longer. It’s not a matter of honoring his past, but having a reasonable hope that he can regain his prior form.
You completely lost me with the Willis reference. I am not sure how you compare a player with such a limited track record of success to one who is a first ballot Hall of Famer.
The bottom line is Jeter should start the year atop the lineup…not as a favor, but because I still think he gives the team the best chance to score the most runs.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
March 18th, 2011 at 7:18 pm
yet you give him the benefit of the doubt based on nothing more than his past, outside of 2009 Jeter has shown nothing but pure decline in almost every area being realistic means he won’t be bouncing back to numbers that he has once posted.
That’s the point I’m making exactly just because he is a Hall of Famer because of what he once did doesn’t mean he is that Hall of Famer anymore, Dontrelle Willis was once a Cy Young contender with 22 wins in a season but he isn’t that anymore and it’s silly to think otherwise.
28-34 year old Jeter isn’t walking threw that door anytime soon, only an older 38 year old Jeter is and that Jeter has had 1 season with a higher than 3.7 WAR over the last 4 years, in contrast he only had 1 season with a WAR lower than 3.7 in his entire career before that (2.6 WAR in his rookie season).
William J. Reply:
March 18th, 2011 at 7:26 pm
Let’s make a deal: if you can throw out 2009, I get to throw out 2010? I don’t see the point in being selective.Before 2009, Jeter was supposed to be in decline and we were hearing about how no team with a 35 year old SS had won a WS. Unfortunately, Jeter and the team didn’t cooperate with that narrative.
You can’t simply divorce a Hall of Famer from his past. Players of Jeter’s caliber are not typical specimens. They are outliers by their very essence. It is foolish to compare them to players like Dontrell Willis.
As for WAR, we are just talking about offense, so that’s kind of irrelevant. In 2010, Jeter’s BABIP plummeted, so if has a little more luck and improves a little thanks to KLong’s adjustments, then he could easily be a .370 OBP player. I’ll gladly take that as my leadoff man.
I’d make a bet right now he never sees .370 as an OBP again, he may have a .370 slugging percentage this season but I can’t see him getting on base at that clip.
Even if you do take out both 2009 and 2010 you still don’t actually have a leadoff man with a .370 OBP, you end up with a player coming off of a.300/.363/.408, .343 wOBA, 11 HRs season which would be more than acceptable but still not a very Derek Jeter like year with a 3.7 WAR. So even if Gardner dropped to a .360 OBP himself his speed breaks the tie between the two and Derek should still be dropped in the order.
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William J. Reply:
March 18th, 2011 at 7:48 pm
I’d take that bet…although I would ammend it to say he’ll have the equivalent of a .370 OBP in 2011′s offensive environment (if the trend continues, a .370 could be even better than what we have become accustomed).
Now, iff both Jeter and Gardner wind up having .360 OBP, I still don’t make the switch (assuming you can’t stack them at 1-2) because then the benefit of Gardner’s speed does not merit disrupting the team. In that case, the decision would be about who Jeter is instead of what he has done.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
March 18th, 2011 at 8:05 pm
If both are hitting .360 Gardner’s speed definitely merits him leading off, his speed not only plays much better on the base paths it also would allow him to score much easier from first and second on balls hit by the meat of the order and therefore is less likely to end rallies standing on 3rd. Jeter also doesn’t have the kind of power that would make up his lacking the speed of Gardner, neither one would make a great leadoff man at that point but then again no one on the team would.
BTW Juan Pierre stole 68 bases last season with an OBP of .341, speed still kills and if neither one is getting on base that well or hitting for power then the one who could steal 60 bases gets the spot.
I don’t expect the year of the pitcher to carry over to this season by the way but we’ll see.
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2009 is considered Jeter’s outlying season, moreso than 2010. I would suggest his true talent level is between that, but much closer to one than the other. It then is no longer ‘one bad season’ when you consider he’s been in steady decline from 2006 onward. Some combination of near average defense and ~.340 wOBA would be a nice 3 win season.
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