(The following is being syndicated from An A-Blog for A-Rod)
For once, it looked like the Yankees were in a position to prove the old adage of “you can never have too much pitching” wrong. It was late in Spring Training and they had no less than 10 guys who could make a legitimate claim to being worthy of a spot in their 2012 starting rotation. Some were younger, some were old, some threw harder than others, and some were just plain better than others, but this season certainly appeared as though it was going to be one, the first one in a while, where the struggles and question marks in the rotation were not going to dominate the headlines in the local press. 4 weeks into the season and all of that depth and talent has been wiped away, replaced by the same concerns over guys not pitching up to the level they were expected to and the same questions surrounding the depth of the group moving forward. The Yankee rotation has a 5.89/4.65/3.74 slash line right now, the ERA ranking 2nd to last in Major League Baseball and the FIP ranking 26th, and have only 6 games where they’ve pitched 7 innings or more combined. It wasn’t supposed to be like this.
, outside of a few misplaced fastballs up in the zone in his first 2 starts, has been the CC Sabathia we’ve seen over the past 3 seasons, and a look at his peripherals makes one very confident that he could become even better than his usual self as the weather continues to warm up. But beyond him and his spot at the top, the rest of the rotation is once again a sea of unknowns.
was supposed to be the Anakin Skywalker of this rotation, the pitcher who would bring balance to it. His plus command and track record of consistency made him an ideal candidate to take over Andy’s former role of veteran stopper, but he’s had 2 really ugly outings in his first 5 and the ugly ones have been bad enough to be a cause for concern moving forward on days when he doesn’t have his command and is pitching at The Stadium. was supposed to be a right-handed Sabathia 2.0, a young, big, power pitcher with a live arm who could be molded into an ace-caliber pitcher. He ended up being a pudgy guy with low-90s heat and a bum shoulder and now he’s out of commish until 2013.
was supposed to have his big comeback tour this year. He got himself back into shape, flashed some of the velocity on his fastball and life on his curveball that made him a top prospect in Spring Training, and earned himself the #3 spot in the rotation. To date, that’s probably been the crowning achievement of his 2012 season, as it’s been back to business as usual for Phil the Starter- no ability to put guys away with 2 strikes or innings away with 2 outs, a flat out refusal to throw more of his secondary pitches, and no real improvement on his fastball-curveball command or sequencing. He’s had just a month’s worth of starts and already the talks have shifted from “how good can Phil be this year?” to “should Phil even be in the rotation this year?”
was supposed to prove that his finish to 2011 was no fluke. With improved fastball velocity and continued development of his offspeed offerings, Nova was going to continue to elevate his ceiling and become a secret weapon for the Yankees, providing #2-#3-type production from the #4 spot in the rotation. Instead, he’s allowed 56 unintentional baserunners in 30.2 IP, and his problems up in the zone have him looking more like the back-end starter he was projected to be. , without any expectations, has pretty much proven that his 2011 WAS a fluke, and has been so bad in 4 starts (12.51/5.54/3.99 in 13.2 IP) that he’s already been banished to late-game mop-up duty in the bullpen.
Even the guys in the Minors, the extreme desperation depth options, have been spitting the bit. continues to be consistently good at only one thing, walking the yard. Manny Banuelos started off the season walking the yard, hit the DL with back problems, and lost more much-needed time to develop and work up his innings count. And Adam Warren‘s body has apparently been taken over by the lost soul of because he’s getting shellacked by opposing hitters and giving up more walks than he ever has.
Within the unflattering overall statistical portrait, there are some signs of hope. The rotation’s 8.12 K/9 is 3rd best in baseball, their 2.64 BB/9 is just outside the top 10, their BABIP against is an unsustainably high .338 and aided by some poor defense. This crew could rattle off a week’s worth of solid starts, have a few more balls find gloves in the field, and have a few less balls go over the fence, and be looking much better. But that doesn’t change the fact that things have gone unexpectedly bad very quickly, and even the help that’s on the way wasn’t supposed to be coming. was supposed to be showing up at camp, shaking a few hands, offering a few tips, maybe coming back to throw out the first pitch of a Yanks-Sawx series, and clicking down the days until his #46 was retired out to Monument Park. Instead, he’s maybe a week or so away from becoming the team’s de factor #3 starter.
The great philosopher John Sterling often reminds us that you just can’t predict baseball, and those words of wisdom ring most true when talking about the developments in the rotation this season. The season is still very young, and there’s plenty of time to fix things, but this was supposed to be a year where there weren’t as many things to fix. It just wasn’t supposed to be like this.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
THE GREAT BAMBINO.
YOU MEAN THAT’S THE SAME GUY?!
That ball is worth… well, more than your whole life.
George signed this? I take it back…you’re dead where you stand.
I always thought it was silly to expect anything out of Phil Hughes. He wasn’t fat in the second half of 2010 when things fell apart, so I thought it was an overly simple answer for the 2011 disaster
Phil Hughes can still be an Ace but it is time to trade Cano
Once Pineda went down with the shoulder injury the rotation went from potentially elite to more of a mixed bag. While I think Kuroda was a good addition, I was hoping he’d be the 4th best starter rather than the 2nd best. We should have expected a few bad starters while he adjusts to the AL. I still believe in Nova but we should expect some growing pains as the league adjusts to him and he tries to transition from being a “pitch to contact” guy to also having strikeout stuff. I don’t think Hughes has a lot of upside but his last start was much better and something to build on. None of us really expected Freddy Garcia to repeat his 2011 season but I think he could still provide some decent back of the rotation starts at some point in the season. It’s easy to forget that he historically has been a slow starter and last year was the exception. It’s still early. Pettitte will be ready soon and I think things are considerably better than you are painting them.
I think Nova needs to stick with his pitch to contact strategy, he’s never going to be a high K guy over the course of a full season. If he tries to expand hitters zones and be a K guy the wheels could really fall off. Despite a new found slider Ivan Nova is still no more than a number 3 in a rotation.
Guess you missed Banuelos’ fine start last nite. Guess you missed Betances’ long track record of extremely low hits allowed. Guess you chose to focus on Kuroda’s two bad starts. Guess, basically, you chose to focus on the facts that support your premise.
By the way, Yankee starter ERA would look a lot better if Girardi didn’t leave guys in to take seventh inning beatings. With the pen he has, he should pull guys at first sign of trouble, rather than leave them in to create big innings as he did last nite.
I agree with bg9….. Things are nowhere near as bad as depictted here. And this staff will soon look a lot better than it does now.
Betances may have a track record of low H/9 but he also has a longh track record of extremely high BB/9. In fact part of the reason he has held down hits in his career is because he has been giving guys so many free passes, not being able to put the ball within the zone with regularity tends to keep people from swinging. I’d much rather he give up a few more hits if the walks fall, if they don’t he’ll never make it at the major league level.
Got to disagree on Nova, yes the hits are annoying but he’s been striking more men out, walking fewer. His BABIP is insanely high….has he made mistakes yes, but there are also more than a few defensive miscues (Last night was his first truly awful game)
His FIP is 4.77 and his xFIP is 3.83, so he’s not pitching as badly as his 5+ ERA but he’s also not pitching as well as you’re making it seem.
His FIP just 3 days ago was 3.77, what’s your point? Like I said, this was his first truly awful appearance and it has affected his numbers. He doesn’t deserve the era in the 5′s and he’s shown that he can actually be very good, much better than the backend starter you want to pigeon hole him into.