To IBB or not IBB, that is the question

By On April 7, 2012 · 8 Comments · In Game Strategy

Photo credit-NY Post

In yesterday afternoon’s Yankee-Rays game the managerial move that seemed to cause the most outcry amongst Yankee fans was the decision to intentionally walk the bases loaded in the first inning. Let’s set the stage. CC struggles with his command early by walking leadoff man Desmond Jennings on 3 straight pitches out of the zone after getting ahead 1-2. The next batter Ben Zobrist flies out to CF on the first pitch. Evan Longoria sees two straight pitches out of the zone from CC then lines a single to Left. Jeff Keppinger then comes up and hits into a fielder’s choice to SS where Jeter goes to 1B for the out. That’s when we come to Girardi’s decision, which some defended and many derided. First base is open, no score and 2 outs. If you’re convinced one way or the other on this call, you may want to look a little deeper into the facts at hand at the time of the decision.

There’s 2 outs, men on 2nd and 3B in the first inning of the first game of the year. CC is struggling to throw strikes early, and on the other side of the mound is the always-tough James Shields. In the general statistical sense, putting men on base increases the odds of the opposition scoring. Run expectancy goes from 0.626 with men on 2B and 3B with 2 outs to 0.814 with the bases loaded and 2 outs. However, in terms of platoon splits Sean Rodriguez mashes Lefties (career .346 wOBA) while Carlos Pena struggled mightily against them last year (.594 OPS) though his career numbers are more even (.884 RH/.737 LH) from both sides of the plate. Facing Sabathia, Pena was 4-40 in his career and had struck out 5 times in his last 6 PAs according to Girardi. Rodriguez is facing 7-26 facing Sabathia (.945 OPS) for his career. That weighed heavily in Joe’s decision.

(Here’s Joe explaining his thought process on YES Postgame Plus)

In terms of on the field execution, you’re putting your starter’s back against the wall. With the bases loaded and nowhere to put Pena, you’re forcing CC to throw fastballs to a dead red hitter if he gets behind in the count. But Pena has all sorts of trouble with breaking balls, especially from a lefty, and forcing a pitcher to throw breaking balls that is struggling with his command is a time honored way of getting a pitcher back on track. As a former Catcher, I’m sure Girardi considered that, as well as having faith in Sabathia to get a batter he has owned over the course of his career. What happened yesterday was probably the least likely of all outcomes. Pena hit just 4 HRs facing lefty starters last year in 199 PAs, which translates to a 1 in 30 probability. So if you thought what happened in that AB was all too predictable, the numbers don’t back you up.

So was Girardi right or wrong? As is often the case, there’s no clear easy answer. What we do know is that it didn’t work out in favor of the Yankees in yesterday’s game. We also know that if it did work the way it had in the other 9 out of 10 times that CC has faced Pena, there would have been no need for this article.

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8 Responses to To IBB or not IBB, that is the question

  1. Larry Koestler says:
    April 7, 2012 at 9:51 am

    I have, I think, made it abundantly clear that I have been a huge Joe Girardi supporter since day one of his managerial stint with the Yankees.

    That said, the IBB to Rodriguez was, by far, the most reactionary, overthinking, flat-out stupidest in-game move I have seen Girardi make in four-plus years at the helm. The only thing that might eclipse it is the IBB to Murphy in the 6th inning of Game 4 of the 2010 ALCS, but the situations were so, so different. At least that move was slightly defensible.

    How on earth are you going to order your ace to intentionally walk Sean Rodriguez with two outs in the first inning of the first game of the season??? Don’t care that Rodriguez hits lefties or Sabathia well, he’s still Sean Rodriguez! If you can’t trust your $160M ace to retire the fifth batter of the season — with two outs! — who can you trust? What’s the worst-case scenario? Rodriguez hits a three-run jack? Better than a grand slam. Even a two-out, two-run single would’ve been just fine. I’d much rather have two runs in, a man on first and Pena up than load the bases intentionally like that. You’ve got a whole game to make up those runs; two’s quite a bit easier to overcome than four; Joe’s lucky Ibanez bailed his stupidity out.

    I’m still fuming over this one, and I know I’m being reactionary now, but this is the first time in the Joe Girardi era I don’t know that I’d necessarily be upset if someone else were managing the team. Not saying he should be fired for one dumb move, but holy crap, the IBB to Rodriguez was utterly inexcusable.

    Reply
    • roadrider says:
      April 7, 2012 at 9:53 am

      I am decidedly not a Girardi supporter but I wholeheartedly second your post. Thanks – you saved me the keystrokes.

      Reply
    • Kiko Jones says:
      April 8, 2012 at 6:29 am

      Not a big Girardi fan but I could not agree with you more if I tried. Thanks, LK.

      Reply
  2. smurfy says:
    April 7, 2012 at 11:42 am

    Not me. I was relieved to read Steve’s fair-minded analysis, and learned of the “time-honored” way of forcing a pitcher to throw breaking balls to get on-track. Never heard, but understandable, if you figure the pitcher has butterflies or some hangup that he could overcome. We have all seen CC throw his best pitch, the slider, and seen Pena beat by it many times. Just funky that CC had no faith in it.

    Reply
    • Eric Schultz says:
      April 7, 2012 at 11:52 am

      Yeah, that was what bothered me the most about the decision. Pena’s a fastball hitter and CC was struggling with his fastball command, but yet they throw him 6 straight fastballs. We saw in Pena’s 2nd AB how bad he looked against breaking balls.

      Reply
  3. says:
    April 7, 2012 at 12:34 pm

    Since I was one interested in signing Pena before Ibanez last Winter I was filled with dread for his ABs in the first and ninth innings. Sure enough he beats us in both. Would have been so nice if he still was a Cub!

    Reply
  4. jim p says:
    April 7, 2012 at 1:19 pm

    Just anecdotally, it seems to me rare that a pitcher having control trouble gives up an intentional walk and then gets his control back for the next hitter. There must be some stat on that, though I don’t know how it would be termed, or how to find it.

    But the lack of control > intentional walk > lack of control continues cycle seems to me the norm. I’d factor that “status of control” in if I were a manager. Seems another walk or a hit almost always follows.

    Reply
    • smurfy says:
      April 7, 2012 at 11:19 pm

      maybe right, but I’m thinking the one item Joe lacked, probably, was that he didn’t ask CC if he could thow a slider. If he had asked and heard the negative, that might have prevented the disaster.

      Reply

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