is becoming a Yankee fan favorite. In the minds of the fans, he’s handsome, charitable, and . In the minds of his opponents, he’s clever, got filthy stuff, and always missing bats. In my mind, he’s unsustainable. In 2011, David Robertson led the American League in ERA, K/9, was second in FIP, but also second in LOB%. For better or for worse, he appears to be the same pitcher in 2012 as he was last year.
I'll miss the fistpumps.
Robertson’s one weakness stems from his inability to keep men off base. His 89.8% left on base percentage and .289 BABIP, compared to his career .320 BABIP, indicate just how lucky he was in 2011. While you might thiN. Robertson could be good enough to maintain these numbers, even the greatest reliever of all time and most clutch player in recent Yankee history, , has a career 80.1% LOB. Robertson is a well above-average relief pitcher, but due to below-average control issues, he finds himself with too many players on base. Eventually his luck will end, and we’ll see him for the very good strikeout pitcher he is, with his one major flaw.
After the 2011 season, writers showed appreciation for the reliever in the Cy Young ballot, and even on the MVP ballot. No doubt there are scouts and executives out there that will show arguably the best American League reliever in 2011 similar appreciation. At this point, it would appear that Robertson’s value is at its highest. What kind of value does he have? As a player much younger, cheaper, with more team control, and with better numbers than the likes of , we can probably expect a bigger return. Right before the trade deadline in 2011, Adams was traded from the Padres to the Rangers for pitching prospects Robert Erlin and . There two prospects rated by John Sickels in 2012 were rated B+, and ranked #5 and #6 in the Padres system now. To give you some comparison, the Yankees only had one B+ in their system, Gary Sanchez, while Manny Banuelos was considered borderline. So imagine a bigger return than two B+ players.
The relief pitching trade market has clearly gotten out of hand, and it’s something the Yankees could take advantage of, but would a contending team actually trade such a successful reliever? The fact is that the team and the organization are bursting with pitching depth. Aside from what could arguably be considered the best bullpen in baseball right now, it looks like might return to his setup role, along with who is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and possibly even by the end of the year. This doesn’t even count the arms maturing in Triple-A which looked major league ready in the spring. Even as an 8th inning pitcher, has the ability pitch even better than Robertson.
So what could the Yankees get in return for the reliever? Aside from a great package of prospects, I think a contending team will look for more immediate helpful pieces. At the end of the year the team will lose , with a budget to meet in 2014 and no answer for the opening outfield spot in the next couple of year, Robertson could be a huge cornerstone in an outfielder deal. I particularly like Dominic Brown as a buy low candidate, but I think there are even more options out there. It’s hard to speculate on who will be in need of a relief pitcher and who will be available by the time these sorts of talks come to the forefront. I do think David Robertson’s days on the low side of a 1 ERA are numbered though, so I hope this front office has the foresight to let Houdini escape.
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Okay, do not take this offensively but….
This article is incredibly bull! We need this guy! Are you a mad man? Anyone in their right mind who thinks we should trade Robertson OBVIOUSLY has NEVER seen this guy pitch. Compared to our other relievers, yes, including Mo, this guy is on top. His ERA is 0.00. It will never end higher than 2.00. Listen to me when I tell you, w-e n-e-e-d t-h-i-s g-u-y. I am not just saying this because I’m TeamDRob either! Even Brian CASHMAN, king of the stupidest trades on the face of the planet, would never trade Dave. Come on, his strikeouts, his nasty pitches, his high socks…. give us hope.
I wouldn’t go as far as we need Robertson, and it is a good point regarding the team’s depth in pitching, but the return from Robertson would not be worth it. The only people that would benefit from trading Robertson would be prospect huggers, who would love another guy to talk about. Unfortunately, prospects don’t always pan out in MLB. DRob already has though, and in a big way. Why trade something you know for something you don’t know? Especially when you don’t have to?
Did you graduate fifth grade?
At first, I was like WTF. But what you say makes some sense. The bullpen, all the way down to the lower minors, is a strength for the Yankees. And relivers are the most fungible assets.
But this is the Yankees. They won’t trade away competent players let alone above average ones – they horde them.
I am with you in trading away DRob for Dominic Brown or some other stud potential outfielder. Those are far, far more valuable than a setup guy and even more valuable than a potential closer.
Anyway, really thought-provoking (and troll-inducing) piece. You made an outlandish premise and backed it up with solid arguments.
Probably the dumbest article ever seen on this blog. I suggest the “writer” start covering dog shows.
why punish the dogs they r innocent
I hope u wrote this article to stir people up. It makes no sense to trade your most valueable reliever. Should we trade Mo because he only has one year left? Think what we could get for him..hahaha
Just because something is well thoughtout does not make it senseable!!!
were you drunk before you wrote this??? i dont care how many get on, its how many score that matters! soriano is the one id look to trade even if it means paying some of his contract! the giants need a closer so it would be a good fit both ways! soriano puts almost as many men on as robertson does but unlike robertson he lets them score!
Well, its 4/20 and we know whos been smokin the good stuff.
Michael,
Like Fred Sanford use to say “are you crazy”?!? Nobody in that bullpen is better than Robertson. As a matter of fact, he is considered by many the best set-up late inning relief pitcher in all of MLB. With Soriano not living anywhere near his expectations, who the heck is going to be the bridge to Mo? Tye Yankees would be near the cellar together with Boston if it wasn’t for winning the 3 close games that Mariano has saved with 2 or less run leads, the Yankees would be at the cellar of the division. That is a team that needs to hit and always have the bullpen ready. Last year the Yankees were at the bottom of the list of playoff teams in complete, or at least 8 inning performances from starters. Like somebody said, Robertson is needed, I would say Robertson is essential in that bullpen. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!
This type of article can always be boiled down to a simple question:
If the Yankees can get a top-50 prospect in an area of need for David Robertson, they should trade him.
That’s it.
And the answer is no, they cannot get a top-50 offensive prospect for David Robertson.
That was simple.
Michael,
I disagree with your premise entirely. What you failed to mention is that very possibly for the first time in FIFTEEN SEASONS, the organization may have to find themselves a closer when Mo hangs them up. Soriano is much older, is a huge brisk to hold-up under the pressure of succeeding the greatest fireman in MLB history, and could well be on his way to San Fran before the deadline. David Robertson just turned TWENTY-SEVEN and has the make-up to get the job done in New York – OB% aside.
Yes, there is plenty of depth below, but Robertson is a bird in-hand that can step in and do a more than creditable job. Use some of the pitching depth to acquire that needed corner bat – if Brown strikes your fancy, then dangle a few kids in front of Amaro, Jr. because the Halladay-Lee-Hamels troika will not be a tandem for much longer (age, possible F/A for CH, etc.)
Great idea. Trade Mo too. Then we call all sit around waiting for Joba to heal. How do these clowns get their own column??
A few years ago, Robertson was not the # 1 prospect in the Yankees farm system. He “blossomed” after being brought up. There are others down in the minors who probably will net the same result so…I agree…trade Robertson, but only if you get a “can’t miss” position player. Give me a 30-30 guy, lifetime .300 hitter, or 100+ RBI machine. I can find a lot of guys good for one inning. The argument Michael Eder makes is more and more compelling the longer I think about it. In the Yankees’ lean years of the 80′s and early 90′s they had no power;when Swisher departs for free agency, that will only leave Granderson; Brett is good but will never scare anyone with his power, so there will be a need for a power outfielder and the Yankees don’t have anyone in the farm system comparable to Montero (still think they could have converted Jesus to an outfielder-Berra, Howard, and Blanchard did it years ago and made the Yankees dominant at the plate for a long time.
)Biggest mistake they made was not re-signing Colon this off-season. Maybe Brian spending too much time with the ladies!
What you’ve just said … is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent article were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone here is now dumber for having read it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
Robertson is the logical replacement for Rivera…the Yankees are about winning this year…you will never get value for a setup man. Sorry dude, this article is way off base. I find it appalling that you call him “Lucky”…The guy struck out 100 in 66 innings….an AMAZING rate. If he was pitching for ground balls he would surely walk less people. Part of the reason he is so hard to hit is the fact that he is a little wild. You should just focus on playing fantasy baseball instead of writing nonsensical articles like this. Your article is pointless.
Why dont we trade Granderson while we’re at it , just in case he cant keep up his pace also?
Then we can get other guys and hope that they are any good .
Silly article.Of course Robertson’s “trade value” is great – he’s great!
THis guy probably wanted to trade Mo when he “failed” as a starter. David Aardsma??A journeyman at best. Soriano?? What a waste of money! And if Joba was healthy, he’d probably be the 7th inning pitcher, and Soriano would be …? (Maybe we could send Soriano to the Giants for some prospects). Joba–healthy? We can only hope. And although Hughes was great in the bullpen in 2009, and won 18 in 2010, what has he done for us lately??
Robertson is our closer of the future. Get over it.
dff
Mike, loved the article.
I’m in the consenus w/ the other fans of not trading him. But it got me to thinking. A major thing you didn’t mention is DRob will hit arbitration this winter. With 2014 in the rearview, the Yanks have 2 options: Lock em up or trade em. The one good thing for us fans is the Yanks have enough players that’ll come off the books at the end of 2012 that should allow them to lock up DRob and use some of that minor league depth in the bullpen for 2013.
I partially agree w/ your position on his adv stats. The reason they’re so lofty is because DRob had a 13.5 K/9 last year. Most balls are not finding its way into play. He’s eliminated the chance of alot of option B’s (something bad happening). That in itself gives him an opportunity of being the heir apparent.
I hope they can bypass the trade em option but DRob is a chip that can bring in some top level pieces. I don’t think the Yanks would look for all prospects. I believe they would get atleast 1 mlb ready player in any package.
This is why you’re a writer and not a GM.
The Yankees GM is not much better!
I agree that people tend to overvalue relievers although I don’t think well-run organizations do it to the extent that they used to. I don’t disagree with Michael that if you could trade D-Rob for two top 50 prospects that it might not be in their long term interests to do so. This is the sort of trade that the Blue Jays or Rays might consider making, especially if they thought they weren’t serious WS contenders.
I think you are taking a big jump in logic from the Adams trade to think that the going rate for an excellent set-up reliever is so high. To the extent that it could be, it is entirely dependent on being a trade deadline deal where one team is making a run at the world series and is willing to overpay to fill a need. The problem there is the Yankees aren’t in the business of making their team weaker in-season to potentially help themselves in the future, especially when it might be helping a playoff competitor. I just don’t see it happening, especially with Joba injured and Mo hinting at retirement.
The only way I could really picture it is as a three-way deal where Cashman dealt D-Rob for top prospects who were in turn dealt for a player who helped both right now and in the future. Possible certainly, likely probably not.
He led the league in fip and k/9. Even if his LOB% regresses he will still be very good. He doesnt need to keep his ERA at 1.10 to be the next closer. A 2-2.5 era with that fip and k/9 would be awesome.
This is obviously a slow day for Yankee news. And yes… you must be drunk. Hopefully you’re saving a similar article about Sorry-ano for later , because he is the problem I see in the bullpen. What’s his LOB percentage?
The fun thing is that the extremely absurd reaction to this post really proves the point about how insanely overvalued Robertson is.
Also enjoyed how everyone totally skipped over the entirely sensible points about how Robertson’s performance over the past year+ isn’t likely to be sustainable (i.e., he probably isn;t going to be this effective) for long.
Do you think any GM of a competitive team would value D-Rob based on the idea of his 2011 being sustainable? I seriously doubt it.
Come to think about it, if the goal were trade him at maximum value , they’d be better off keeping him and handing him the closer job next year and then trading him mid-season as a presumably successful closer. Even as a good closer, he’d have more value than as a lights out setup man. I don’t think they’d do that either, but it makes more sense to me than Michael’s idea of trading him now.
Any team that would give up enough to trade for Robertson would probably want him as a closer. The Giants would match up for him, though I’m not sure if they’d be willing to give up Gary Brown or Brandon Belt with the type of anemic offense the club has already.
Again, the price for Mike Adams was two B+ grade prospects, and I think the Yankees could get a similar if not better deal. That doesn’t hold them to prospects only, like I said before Belt is already a major leaguer and Brown could and should be in Triple-A by the end of the year.
I think the Adams haul is the exception here, not the rule. The idea of trading Robertson isn’t necessarily bad, I just don’t think there’s much value in the trade.
It’s true. I’m glad a few people made it past the headline though.
This is what happens when you focus on stats instead of performance. It’s not luck if keeps getting big outs.
Well thought out and reasoned, Mike, but I think you’re overstating Robertson’s perceived value on the market and in turn, the potential return.
I think Robertson, like all relief pitchers, is probably overvalued and that he’s unlikely to be as good as he was last year going forward. Those who are in convulsions over the suggestion that it might be a good idea to trade Robertson should be reminded that his entire career before this season consisted of 209 IP.
Yet, trading him right now would not be my first choice. First, I really doubt he would bring that much back. A guy who throws only 60-70 innings per year, even if they are mostly in the dreaded 8th inning, isn’t worth the kind of return this post suggests the Yankees could expect to get back. Domonic Brown? C’mon – be real. What’s the Phillies biggest problem? Eighth-inning relief or hitting? Even if they’ve soured on Brown they’re not going to trade him for Robertson. And as for getting a prospect haul that trade would hurt the Yankees. Even if Robertson is only 75%-80% as good as last year that’s still pretty good. You don’t trade that as a contending team for prospects. An immediate helpful piece? Well, what exactly do you have in mind? You’re not going to get a regular player for a one-inning guy and in case you haven’t noticed the Yankees don’t really have many openings for regulars. Trading Robertson for a platoon player or a bench guy is the only realistic option and I’m not sure I would make that deal until a real need develops – like Ibanez melting down completely or a serious injury to a position player.
I don’t know if I would extend Robertson or sign him as a FA but for right now I’d ride the wave.
Mark Trumbo for DRob. I think i would do that. Angels have a logjam at first and corner outfield. Trumbo could be DH and RF of the future. Trumbo has good power that would play well at Yankee Stadium.
Trumbo needs to show some plate discipline first.
Ha ha! Good one! Except that this article is 20 days late! You pulled the wool over our eyes with a great April Fool’s Day joke!! Instead of writing a baseball column, this guy should write for Saturday Night Live. His logic sound as believeable as a tax break for the super rich creates jobs!
Mr Eder, what ever your smoking put it down an leave it alone!!! Its messing with your brain buddy, has to be after writing that article!!!
were you the one who tried to hide Ortiz’s jersey under the new stadium?
It’s pretty simple… Robertson doesn’t allow runners to score! A talented minor leaguer doesn’t always mean a talented major leaguer. So looking at a minor league system and telling me the Yankees are stacked means nothing. Our team has a solid bullpen now and should leave it alone and concentrate on the issues that we have. Why would you trade a PROVEN talent when you’d never get fair value in return? Simple, you don’t make these trades. That’s what makes a good GM and also a guy with common sense. Maybe we should get rid of MO because he lost his first game of the season! NOT !!!
I have no problem with the notion of trading a reliever to get value I especially don’t mind trading a commodity when it’s hot…
BUT I have a big problem with stat geeks using BABIP and assuming every freaking outcome is luck. Robertson’s stuff is filthy. Whil he will walk a guy when he is in a jam he brings it to another level. Also I have noticed increased control.
Simply put the guy has the right mindset to be a reliever. If Rivera hangs it up, this guy is your closer. Which puts the money argument to bed because he is under control for two or three more years…personally I like one year deals for relievers.
Trading a solid MLB commodity to stock up on b+ prospects is a risky formula. Teams who do it are teams who can’t afford players when they become free agents. Some succeed some fail. Yankees should not become the Oakland athletics!
A
I have zero problem trading high on a reliever with walk problems.
I do have a problem believing that mike adams trade is going to be replicated. I just don’t think the yankees will get value.
ANd I wouldn’t want two top 100s. I’d only be willing to trade RObertson for a position player I was prettmy damn sure was going to be a 2 to 3 war player with similar service time. I’m not interested in trading an extremely effective player with plenty of room to regress and still be e3xcellent Unless i know KNOW the plyers I’m getting back are worht it. Seth Smith won’t cut it.
Interesting idea by Michael Eder. He must aspire to work for the NY Post.
Michael, have you ever heard of the old adage, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Mike Adams in Texas has already brought dividends. Let’s see if pitching prospects Robert Erlin and Joe Wieland even make it to the show, lol.
The future is now. Without D-Rob setting up for Mo this year, we might as well as pass on 2012. Is that your suggestion? We trade gold for faux-gold? I bet if you were around 17 years ago, you probably would have offered the same argument for the great Mariano Rivera….”unsustainable”?
As the Yanks have said in the past, no one is untradeable but if you are going to trade perhaps your future closer you better get a ready-to-cotribute-right-now RF. Otherwise, forget the prospects game.
Are you a trolololol? What you wrote makes no sense. Yes let’s trade one of our best relievers. Makes perfect sense.
WHAT KIND OF CRACKHEAD TERMINOLOGY IS THIS?!?!?!?!?!?!?
Wow…I’m surprised that so many people are angry about an article that basically supports the revolutionary concept of selling high. I agree that Michael’s expected return might not be feasible, but it seems like most people aren’t attacking that statement, but that D-Rob is basically untouchable. He’s a great reliever and perhaps not replaceable, but I’m guessing that the Yankees can replace most of his value within the bullpen, even if it’s not all of it, with current depth. If Cashman can get an everyday piece in a trade, then the total value (new reliever + trade piece) may exceed the current value of D-Rob, and why would you not be open to that? Why not even ask? If the answer is no, who cares?
with all due respect, ARE YOU OUT OF YOUR MIND? I do understand the need of the infilder, however, Mr Robertson can be the replacement for Mr. Rivera when he decides to retire, with coaching from the Sandman, Houdiny will be one of the best closer the Yankees have after Mariano.
YOU HAVE TOO MUCH TIME ON YOUR HANDS….YOU ARE A NUT JOB!!
WOW biggest overreaction, and some of the rudest posts, I’ve ever seen on TYU. If you can get the right value everyone is expendable, especially the most overrated aspect of the entire game, relievers.
I’m not sure anyone would be willing to pony up what it would cost for such a high walk rate reliever, but if the Yankees could get a Brandon Belt type I’d be all over it.
Now, if we had this guy running the show, where would the Yankees be after having Mariano’s injury? You never have enough pitching!
THIS IS THE MOST RIDICULOUS ARTICLE IVE EVER READ AND ANYONE WHO WOULD WANT TO GET RID OF ONE OF THE CLOSEST GUYS TALENT-WISE TO MARIANO ON THIS PLANET IS A BAFOON. HE IS YOUNG AND HAS TREEEEEMENDOUS ABILITY. YOU WILL SEE THAT ONE DAY WE WILL LOOK BACK AND LAUGH AT THIS ARTICLE
“YOU WILL SEE THAT ONE DAY WE WILL LOOK BACK AND LAUGH AT THIS ARTICLE.”
I think we’re already laughing. A weird idea just got weirder when Mo went down. How many teams have a Robertson in their back pocket when a disaster like this occurs? As of May 8, Robertson has pitched in 13 games (13 IP), with no runs allowed, 7 hits, 3 walks, 0.83 WHIP.
Very convenient that you didn’t include tonight’s stats.
I’m glad you’ll enjoy Robertson working out of a bases loaded jam for save opportunities. As I stated in the first sentence, he’s way too over hyped by fans, and unsurprisingly these comments have shown that. It’s only a matter of time until loading the bases in the 9th gets stale. His days with a 0 ERA were already numbered, but the backlash of NY’s most current beloved reliever will be even greater in the spotlight of the closer. You’d have to be blind to ignore the fact that his Houdini act is unsustainable, and although he’s the best option, I’m not looking forward to a season long of stress inducing saves.
This guy wanting to trade our best relief pitcher other than Rivera was foolish to begin with, but now look, where would we be now with no MO and Soriano to close and nobody to set him up?