Last night, didn’t make it out of the third inning. He got to two outs in the inning, but just couldn’t close it out. After striking out a batter to lead off the Texas half of the frame, singled. then hit a bloop double to right field. followed with a weak grounder that was just weak enough to score Moreland from third. Then it fell apart. Hughes hit with a pitch, gave up a hard single to Adrian Beltre, then gave up a stinging double to . After Hughes hit Nelson Cruz, he was lifted for . In his four starts this year, Phil Hughes has pitched a grand total of 16 innings. As has been said by broadcaster and fan alike, his velocity is pretty much there, but the location is absolutely gone. With scheduled to make at least two more starts in the minors, Hughes has some time, but the clock is ticking. Via LoHud, here’s what Hughes and catcher had to say after the game:
Hughes: “I haven’t really earned the trust to (stay in the game),” he said.
And Martin:
“(Hughes) is guy who has tremendous confidence in his fastball,” Martin said. “For him to be successful, he’s got to locate. A.J. had the same problem every once in a while. He’d get into a hitter’s count — he’s confident in his fastball as well — it’s just when you leave one over the middle of the plate, especially those 3, 4, 5 guys, they’re not going to miss it. They’ve got a tremendous lineup. You’ve got to be able to pitch them tough. You’ve got to be able to pitch them backwards. Even when we tried to pitch them backwards, they were still on it.”
It all starts with fastball location, and Hughes just doesn’t have it right now. Lack of fastball location means a lot of favorable counts for hitters, which means you essentially HAVE to place your fastball poorly if you don’t want to issue a walk. Lack of fastball location means you aren’t going to get any sort of positive results on your breaking ball because, hey, why swing at it? Martin also acknowledged that when he and Hughes did pitch backwards (starting hitters with offspeed pitches and finishing them with the fastball), it didn’t work. Why? It could be because Hughes’s breaking stuff just isn’t there or it could be because his fastball command is so off that hitters are able to square it up, even with two strikes. From what Martin said, we can figure he wants Hughes to STOP throwing his fastball in those counts and wants him to “not give in,” as they say. So far, Hughes hasn’t been able to do that.
Phil Hughes has now thrown 403.1 innings as a starting pitcher. His ERA as a starter is over 5. His FIP is an equally uninspiring 4.5198. Things seem to be getting worse rather than better. The light at the end of the tunnel seems to be coming for Phil, but it’s not the light we all thought it would be. For the second time in as many weeks, I find myself writing a pre-mortem for Phil Hughes. I hate that I’m doing this, but there’s no way around it at this point. Unless something drastically changes over the next two-three weeks, I think it’s safe to say it’s over for Hughes as a starting pitcher. And as I think about this situation, I can’t help but place most of the blame on Hughes himself.
Aside from the bullpen assignment he received in 2009, he’s been put in favorable situations by Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi. He was handed a rotation spot in 2010 thanks to a rigged competition. He won the spot in 2011 by virtue of a strong first half in ’10, despite an awful second half. In 2012, he pitched wonderfully in Spring Training, but has pitched badly so far in the regular season. Injuries have occurred and they take a good portion of the blame, but Hughes, in the last two seasons, has been unable to adjust his pitching style and patterns to be a successful starter. At this point, I’m completely out of ideas as to how to “fix” Phil Hughes. Maybe he’s beyond that point now.
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The diagnois doesn’t seem that hard – his fastball has very little movement so he has less margin for error with his command. It’s a decent speed but he’s not going to blow many people away with it so he needs an offspeed putaway pitch and his secondary stuff is just awful now. He needs to either get his good curveball back that’s been missing for a couple of years or greatly improve the slider. Absent that, he needs to find a way to get more movement on the fastball. Didn’t David Cone credit the movement on his splitter to a badly broken finger from a failed bunt attempt? Maybe someone should break one of Phil’s fingers. Obviously, I don’t have any good ideas either. The standard for a 5th starter isn’t that high, but he does need to be able make it through the 5th inning and at least keep the team in the game. If he can’t do that, he’s running out of chances. I have to imagine that he’s a nontender candidate next year if he doesn’t improve his secondary pitches. He might be able to be a decent middle innings reliever with just his fastball, but he is too expensive for them to keep him around in that role forever.
Didn’t David Cone credit the movement on his splitter to a badly broken finger from a failed bunt attempt? Maybe someone should break one of Phil’s fingers.
This cracked me up. On a related note, Bob Wickman credited the wicked movement on slider to a farm accident as a boy, where he lost part of a finger on his pitching hand.
Maybe Phil should chop off one of his fingers. If he can’t bring himself to do it, I’m sure Ronnie Lott will offer to help.
This is not quite in the “Outside of that how did you enjoy the play Mrs. Lincoln?” category but it can’t be dismissed lightly. Hughes was doing well as a starter at the time (remember that Memorial Day game against the Rangers?) and basically lost a year of development time as a starter and probably lost the feel for his curve ball and wasn’t developing his secondary pitches as a result. Yes, I know we won it all in 2009 but I find it hard to believe that Hughes being in the 8th-inning roles was so essential to that outcome that it was worth retarding his development.
One-inning guys just aren’t as important as starters. You may disagree but there’s a reason that CC Sabathia gets a 7-year deal for $20+ million per while Mariano Rivera, the greatest one-inning guy there is (and probably ever will be) has never received more than a 4-year deal and for less money.
I don’t mean to let Hughes off the hook for his bad performances or his apparent lack of conditioning going into last season but I don’t hold Cashman or Girardi as blameless as you do – especially Girardi. In Hughes’ start against the Twins he basically sabotaged him by playing Nunez at 2B for no apparent reason and then played that idiotic shift against Doumit (who is he Ted Williams?) that cost Hughes the chance to get out of the inning relatively cheaply. Last night Girardi could have let Hughes try to pitch out of the inning and recover his balance but he decided to manage the game like it was a playoff elimination game. I know, all of the wins count but it’s not like what he did worked either.
Sending Hughes to the bullpen is not the solution. For one thing there’s no spot for him there right now and he has too much talent to go to waste in the Sergio Mitre role. Once Andy comes back I think Hughes should be sent down with strict orders to develop his curve ball and change up. If he can’t make progress then it would make sense to convert him to a relief role.
“he has too much talent to go to waste in the Sergio Mitre role.”
I think a lot of people are starting to wonder if this is really true. He’s running out of time with the Yankees. They can’t just keep running him out as a starter if he doesn’t pitch better than he has. I don’t see a lot of reasons for optimism, other than the Yankees haven’t given up on him yet and they’re admittedly smarter than I am about these things. That curveball has been missing for a long time know though. Why should we think he’s going to suddenly find it?
He makes $3.2 million this year so he’s not cheap anymore. He needs to greatly improve or he’s not back next year. He really can’t be treated like a project anymore. If they think he would benefit from being in the minors with less pressure and more leeway to just work on his pitches, I’m fine with that. If they want to extract some value from him as a reliever, I’m fine with that too.
The rationale for sending Hughes to the pen was always based on his performance as “the 8th-inning guy” in 2009 (as much as I despise the structured bullpen). If goes to the pen now he’s not going to be the 8th-inning guy or the 7th-inning guy. He’s going to be the long man and a backup for Wade. Most of the time he won’t pitch. That’s a waste. They won’t be extracting any “value” from him in that role and they’ll be minimizing any trade value he has (which I admit, is not much right now).
I agree with you that he has a good chance to be non-tendered after this season which might be the best thing for him since it doesn’t look like it’ll happen for him with the Yankees.
His fly ball tendencies as a righty will never work here. He could be a solid pitcher elsewhere, he’s always had a fairly large H/R split.
I think the move to the bullpen is forward looking too. Where next year with Mo gone, it would be nice to round out the pen with Hughes, Drob and Soriano.
“Once Andy comes back I think Hughes should be sent down with strict orders to develop his curve ball and change up. If he can’t make progress then it would make sense to convert him to a relief role.”
I’d concur, if he doesn’t snap out of it in these couple weeks. I’d restrict him to 25% four seamers, or even none: if he wants to throw a fastball, it better be two seamed, cut or split.
I’m sorry, but blaming Giradi even partially is way off base. Phil’s problems as a pitcher didn’t start this season. He has had the same issues finishing off hitters, refusing to work low in the zone and trying to be the strikeout pitcher he was in the minors (which he’s not at this level) since he was called up in 2007. This has been the same story repeated over and over again since 2007, with the one good half season in 2010 aided by off the charts run support.
My point is only that most of the time, he’s been set up for success by Cashman and Girardi. The only time he wasn’t was in ’09, which I think really hurt his development. In terms of pitching, it’s obviously all on Hughes.
And why shouldn’t they have set him up for success? He was a highly regarded 1st round pick. You act is if “setting him up for success” was some kind of unwarranted favor by the Yankees to Hughes. It was something that was in both their best interests.
You’re misunderstanding what I’m saying. It’s not a bad thing that he was set up for success–of course he should have been–I’m just pointing out that despite that, he hasn’t succeeded.
Well you’re entitled to your opinion but you’ve made it clear that in your eyes Girardi can do no wrong so I really discount most of what you have to say on that subject.
The 2009 move to the bullpen was short sighted and I think almost as devastating to Hughes’ career as the way the Yankees “handled” Joba was to his.
Hughes had just missed a year because of injury and 2009 was a huge missed chance for the Yankees to allow him to develop as a starter. Would things have turned out differently? We’ll never know.
I don’t excuse Hughes at all for not pitching well but I don’t think he has been well served by the Yankees in his brief career and if I were him I would be begging them not to offer him a contract for next year.
When did I say Girardi could do no wrong? I think Girardi and Cashman putting him in the bullpen is one of the worst things that could’ve been done for Hughes, especially at the time they did it.
Ummm, I think I misplaced this reply. it was intended for Steve Sciacco. Sorry about that.
But sending him down won’t do any good. He’ll be able to skate by with “meh” secondary stuff. He needs to learn how to get ML hitters out w/those pitches.
Yeah, well neither does burying him in the bullpen.
But that will at least help the ML team extract some value from him and give him a shot to be successful pitcher.
Why would you say it would do him no good? Phelps has thrown more innings that Freddy Garcia and only 1 1/3 less than Hughes has it this point. It’s not necessarily burying him. It might actually do him some good to not wait 5 days in between starts and not know ahead of time when he is coming into a game (less opportunity to overthink things). It’s a lot less pressure too if he’s pitching in relatively low leverage situations.
That’s an awful lot of hand waving and speculation. Besides, the reasons Phelps has thrown a lot of innings as the long man is that Garcia and Hughes have had some very short starts. If you take Hughes out of the rotation and either Pettitte replaces Garcia (I fervently hope) or Garcia turns it around (when pigs fly) then there won’t be that much work for the long man.
This thread definitely qualified as Good read on a Friday morning.
Hughes went from the guy we hoped would be a middle of the rotation answer for this ballclub to a guy we’re not sure will even be tendered a 2013 contract should he remain completely ineffective in a starting role.
Hughes can’t find the rhythm to throw a consistent plus or even average curveball. I’m not sure Hughes ever really had the feel for the curve, but now its non-existent. A good FB becomes only average when opposing hitters are geared up for knowing the curve wont fall in for a strike.
If Hughes cant stick in the rotation, things get interesting and a tad heart-wrenching. I’ve followed Hughes since he was drafted; I’m 31 btw. The 18 win season on his resume makes him no longer “cheap” and possibly prohibitively expensive to keep in a reliever’s role when guys like Cory Wade, DJ Mitchell, JOBA, & David Robertson are present. If i had to predict now where Hughes is next April, i’ll say Hughes is not in pinstripes.
The ONLY hope to extract value is AAA. yeah pitching there the results wont mean much but he has nothing. The kesson is dint make a guy switch his best off speed pitch after u draft him. Send him down tell him he can try and throw his slider again, make him start learning a split. Until/unless wade craps the bed there are no innings in ythe pen. Sadly I am more confident garcia will get on track and be serviceable than hughes……..
And my fresking god now NOW NOW NOW is the time to right a wrong and bring joba back as a starter. Literally everyone of his pitches is better. I know its dead horse but if joba had been given this leash we could be expecting a 25 year old #3 back from the dl.
What a freaking disaster
Hughes has been around for a while now and at this point in his career, I just don’t know if I believe he’s going to develop (or redevelop) his curve ball or another pitch (change up)… I’m now thinking that his best value as a player is a two inning reliever – maybe you throw him out there for the 7th and 8th (or 6th and 8th) and tell him to empty the tank and see what you can get. Now i’m not sure if that makes sense from a salary perspective, but assuming Mo is not going to be on the team next year, a guy like that could be a great asset.
given his age (although he’s not that old, but he’s been around the block), injury record and his lack of secondary offerings, I see Hughes has a bullpen guy now. i just don’t see any future for him as a starter at this point.
This Yankee team is so overated it’s pathetic. A-Rod is probably the worst 4th hitter in baseball. Few of them are clutch-hitters. And their pitching was suspect all spring training. Very few can exceed with a 93-94 hr fastball.
They can’t hit the bettr pitchers–old bats. No better than 3rd in their division. The Yankees haven’
t come up with one hitting young slugger or young pitching ace in eons–bad scouting and lame trades. Montero was a plus for Seattle.
Spitz
Obvious troll is obvious…