Anthony Rizzo
You might have missed it yesterday in the midst of the hype of the NFL Wild Card weekend but Cubs GM Jed Hoyer and President Theo Epstein pulled off a small heist from former protege Padres GM Josh Bynes, who worked under Theo with the BoSox until 2005. The Cubs acquired slugging 1B Anthony Rizzo, who batted .331/.404/.652 line and hit 26 HRs in 413 PAs for the Padres AAA Tucson affiliate last year. It was something of a reacquisition of Rizzo for Epstein, who you may recall traded him to the Padres last year in the Adrian Gonzalez deal. This comes on the heels of the Carlos Zambrano deal earlier this week, which brought back perpetually disappointing Marlins starter Chris Volstad.
As I detailed in my Trade Match Series piece on Garza, heading into the off season the Cubs needed a 1B, 3B, RF and have numerous spots up for grab in their starting rotation. Rizzo should (eventually) solve their need at First Base, while Volstad takes the place of Zambrano in the Cubs rotation. As things stand currently their rotation (without Garza) would feature Ryan Dempster as their ace, with Chris Volstad, Randy Wells, Rodrigo Lopez and Casey Coleman filling out the starting 5. I think it’s safe to say that even with Garza they’re still nowhere near competing for the NL Central next year, and need to upgrade at least 2 of those rotation slots long term. The package that would now best satisfy their needs would be heavy on pitching, and possibly give them a long term answer at Third and/or RF.
After acquiring Rizzo Cubs GM what the team will be looking for going forward:
“At this point, we’re still very much in the process of gathering as many quality arms as we can, and we’ll put those pieces in place as we get closer to Spring Training,” Hoyer said. “We have worked hard, and we continue to work hard, and hopefully we’ll have even more starting-pitching acquisitions….We want to go seven, eight, nine deep in the rotation and we hope to replenish the bullpen as well.”
They won’t fill all their needs by dealing Garza, but will be obviously looking to fill as many as possible. The dumping of Zambrano and acquisition of Rizzo would seem to indicate that their time horizon for competing is 2013 and beyond. Rizzo struggled in his initial call up (.141/.281/.242 153 PAs) with the Padres last year and the Cubs plan is for him to in the minors. Farmhand Brett Jackson could fill their need in RF, but like Rizzo is expected to begin the year in AAA Iowa.
An updated list of Yankee players that match what the Cubs may be looking for in a Garza deal would be Nick Swisher, Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Hector Noesi, Brandon Laird, David Phelps, Adam Warren, DJ Mitchell. Given the multiple years of team control on Garza, it is expected that he will bring back at least 2 major pieces in a deal. But moving some of those pieces would trigger additional Yankee moves. Of course, if they trade Swisher they would be looking for an everyday RF. Dealing Laird would mean they need a caddy for A-Rod at 3B. They currently have enough MLB ready depth to give up 2 pitchers in a deal that brings back a starter and still have a few options at AAA in case of injury.
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Of the players I listed I would tell Theo and Jed they can pick any 4 they want, as long as I can take Banuelos off the table. That would almost certainly mean they’ll take Swisher as a bridge to Brett Jackson and the Yanks will be shopping for a RF.
Available FAs include Cespedes, JD Drew, Magglio Ordonez, Cody Ross, Xavier Nady and Ryan Ludwick. Another thought is to play Andruw Jones there and get someone to caddy for him, especially facing tough Righties.
Looking at who’s available, playing Jones in RF would be my preferred option for 2012. Drew could make a nice platoon, he’s always hit Righties better than Lefties and given his health history should be willing to play a bench role. I’d still like to bring in Cespedes, but would want to start him in AAA to see what you have.
Swisher, Betances, Noesi and DJ Mitchell. You make that deal? I do.
I don’t.
Andruw Jones’ run as an everyday player ended some time ago. JD Drew as a lefty caddy? You can’t be serious – he’s probably toast as a player and he can’t stay off the DL. Cespedes? Do we even know if he will be an MLB regular, let alone in 2012? Ordonez? Toast. Nady? Been there, done that. Ross and Ludwick? Please.
I’m cool with the rest of the guys you mentioned being in the trade but Swisher can’t be for the simple reason that he’d be harder to replace.
The question becomes which team do you think will be better in 2012, the one with a Jones/Drew platoon and Garza as your #2 or the one with Swisher in RF and Hughes (I assume he’s the low man on the totem pole) in the rotation?
Those aren’t the only two alternatives.
I would be willing to give them another pitcher (Phelps or Warren – both of whom are MLB ready or close to it) or substitute Williams for Swisher.
If Theo is trying to plug three or four holes by dealing Garza then I don’t think the Yankees (or most other teams) match up. I mean we’re not talking about Kershaw, Lincecum or King Felix here.
There’s also a chance that Garza or other pitchers will be available at the deadline for more reasonable prices. I’m not willing to trade Swisher’s production for a jerry-rigged platoon of one guy who is no longer good enough to be out there every day and another guy who will probably spend 75% of the season on the DL or who will be a DFA by Memorial Day because he can’t hit anymore. Especially when I’m also giving up three other guys for Garza.
If I’m Theo, Williams doesn;t work for me at all. First, he was in Rookie ball last year and is still a lottery ticket. Next, the whole idea of adding Swisher is making up for 1 year of Garza’s value and building a bridge for my star prospect. If you subtract Swisher, I need Banuelos or I don’t do the trade.
Another point. Adding another of the Noesi/Warren/Phelps/Mitchell group is very Yankee-centric. Every Yankee fan would gladly give up all 4 and hold on to our top prospects and MLB players. But from the Cubs standpoint that just doesn’t work. Low ceiling quantity over high end quality is a recipe for a bad deal, and Theo’s too smart for that.
If you really don’t want Garza, I can respect that. Our own Matt I isn’t a big fan and has valid concerns. But putting myself in Theo’s shoes, I don’t think your counter proposals work for what I’m trying to accomplish. For a boatload of quantity over quality, I’ll hang onto him.
Well, as Mike pointed out to you on RAB the Cubs signed David DeJesus to play RF so tell me again why they need Swisher?
By your own admission, you’re arguing from Theo’s standpoint which is not the same as a disinterested perspective on what Garza is actually worth. IIRC, Garza has two years of team control left and is a super two so his value is not as much as Theo is expecting to get.
Here’s what FanGraphs has to say about Garza’s trade value:
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On that basis your proposal seems like an overpay on the part of the Yankees. That’s a perfectly legitimate stance for the Cubs to take but that doesn’t mean the Yankees should meet the price.
Garza would be nice to have but not at the cost of weakening the lineup (which your swap of Swisher for Jones/Drew would do). If the Cubs really need to get back position players then I’m not sure the Yankees match up since outside of the ML roster all we have are lottery tickets like Williams and Sanchez. So, the Yankees’ offer has to be pitching centric. Since the Cubs don’t really need Swisher I think a fair offer is Betances, Noesi or Phelps and Warren and one of Williams or Sanchez.
I don’t think the Cubs would be much interested in Swisher. He’s only got 2012 under contract and they have no plans to contend this year, why take on a sizeable contract for a lost season? Only if they planned to flip him at the deadline, or thought he’d make type A compensation would it potentially make sense. Cubs would be interested in Gardner or Mason Williams. I think Betances, Williams, Warren, Phelps would get it done, we keep banuelos and montero- but I’m not interested at that price point.
As a bridge to Jackson, he does make sense. As we know, some prospects never pan out at the MLB level. So they could acquire him with one eye toward extending him long term. He’s a classic moneyball player, so I would think Theo and Hoyer would be fans.
The Cubs may be selling off, but they want to remain competitive. They have no trouble selling seats but they did have an issue with no-shows by the middle of last year. It’s a big market, they have a new owner, so they can’t just tank a few years waiting for the kids. In a market like Chicago you retool more than rebuild, meaning that you have to stay competitive.
The list of JD Drew’s injuries is truly awe-inspiring. What’s more, most of them don’t seem all that serious. He seems like a real whiner.
2011-09-17 2011-09-17 On-Alr 0 0 - Neck Soreness - - -
2011-08-29 2011-08-29 On-Alr 0 0 Right Fingers Fracture with loose sliver middle finger - -
2011-07-20 2011-09-25 60-DL 67 62 Left Shoulder Impingement - - -
2011-06-27 2011-06-30 DTD 3 2 Left Eye Contusion from batting practice - —-
2011-05-25 2011-05-29 DTD 4 3 Right Thigh Strain Hamstring - —-
2011-05-04 2011-05-05 DTD 1 1 General Medical Vertigo —- - —-
2011-03-23 2011-03-25 Camp 2 0 General Medical Illness —- - —-
2011-03-04 2011-03-07 Camp 3 0 General Medical Respiratory Flu - —-
2011-02-06 2011-02-06 Off 0 0 Left Thigh Strain Lingering proximal hamstring tendinosis in off-season – Sought out PRP - —-
2010-09-13 2010-09-18 DTD 5 4 Right Ankle Sprain — - —-
2010-07-27 2010-07-30 DTD 3 2 Thigh Strain Hamstring - —-
2010-06-30 2010-07-02 DTD 2 1 Neck Stiffness — - —-
2010-06-19 2010-06-24 DTD 5 4 Left Thigh Strain Hamstring - —-
2010-05-26 2010-05-27 DTD 1 1 General Medical Illness — - —-
2010-05-23 2010-05-23 DTD 0 0 Hip Soreness Hip Flexor - —-
2010-05-18 2010-05-18 DTD 0 0 Right Thigh Tightness Hamstring - —-
2010-05-10 2010-05-11 DTD 1 1 General Medical Vertigo — - Yes
2010-04-26 2010-04-26 DTD 0 0 General Medical Vertigo — - —-
2010-04-11 2010-04-11 DTD 0 0 Neck Soreness — - —-
2009-11-19 2009-11-19 Off 0 0 Left Shoulder Surgery Bone Spur in AC Joint 2009-11-19 —-
2009-09-30 2009-10-04 DTD 4 4 Left Shoulder Soreness — - —-
2009-08-15 2009-08-18 DTD 3 2 Left Groin Strain — - Yes
2009-07-31 2009-08-01 DTD 1 1 Left Groin Strain — - —-
2009-06-14 2009-06-16 DTD 2 1 Right Shoulder Soreness — - —-
2009-06-06 2009-06-09 DTD 3 2 Left Shoulder Inflammation Rotator Cuff Tendinitis - —-
2009-05-09 2009-05-10 DTD 1 1 Right Thigh Tightness Quad - —-
2009-04-26 2009-04-27 DTD 1 1 Left Thigh Strain Quad - —-
2009-03-20 2009-03-25 Camp 5 0 Right Hand Contusion — - —-
2008-08-18 2008-09-08 15-DL 21 18 Low Back Cartilage Injury Herniated Disc - —-
2008-07-09 2008-07-12 DTD 3 2 Low Back Spasms — - —-
2008-05-29 2008-05-31 DTD 2 1 General Medical Illness Vertigo - —-
2008-05-14 2008-05-17 DTD 3 1 Left Wrist Sprain — - —-
2008-04-30 2008-05-03 DTD 3 3 Left Thigh Tightness Quad - —-
2008-03-25 2008-04-02 Camp 8 3 Low Back Spasms — - —-
2007-09-01 2007-09-02 DTD 1 1 Right Foot Contusion Foul Ball - —-
2007-07-19 2007-07-20 DTD 1 1 Right Thigh Soreness Hamstring - Yes
2007-07-14 2007-07-16 DTD 2 2 Right Thigh Tightness Hamstring - —-
2007-06-21 2007-06-23 DTD 2 1 Right Thigh Tightness Quad - —-
2007-06-02 2007-06-04 DTD 2 2 Thigh Soreness Hamstring - —-
2007-05-16 2007-05-19 DTD 3 2 Low Back Contusion wall - —-
2007-04-30 2007-05-01 DTD 1 0 General Medical Illness — - —-
2006-07-21 2006-07-21 DTD 0 0 Right Knee Contusion Patella - —-
2006-06-11 2006-06-13 DTD 2 1 Right Thigh Contusion Quad - —-
2006-06-08 2006-06-09 DTD 1 0 Right Thigh Soreness Hamstring - —-
2006-05-27 2006-05-29 DTD 2 2 Right Shoulder Soreness — - —-
2005-09-20 2005-09-20 On-Alr 0 0 Right Shoulder Surgery — 2005-09-20 —-
2005-07-04 2005-10-03 60-DL 91 81 Left Wrist Fracture Ulnar Styloid Process 2005-09-20 —-
2005-06-22 2005-06-27 DTD 5 5 Left Knee Soreness — - —-
2005-05-23 2005-05-24 DTD 1 0 Right Wrist Soreness — - —-
2005-05-08 2005-05-10 DTD 2 2 General Medical Illness Stomach - —-
2004-09-19 2004-09-21 DTD 2 1 General Medical Illness — - —-
2004-08-24 2004-08-25 DTD 1 1 Head Laceration hit head on dugout roof - —-
2004-08-15 2004-08-16 DTD 1 1 Right Thigh Soreness — - —-
2004-08-08 2004-08-08 DTD 0 0 Right Elbow Contusion HBP - —-
2004-08-02 2004-08-03 DTD 1 0 Right Wrist Soreness — - —-
2004-05-03 2004-05-07 DTD 4 3 Neck Stiffness — - —-
2004-04-13 2004-04-20 DTD 7 5 Left Thigh Strain Hamstring - —-
2003-08-09 2003-09-01 15-DL 23 21 Right Trunk Strain Oblique - —-
2003-07-06 2003-07-08 DTD 2 2 Right Knee Soreness — - —-
2003-06-27 2003-06-27 DTD 0 0 Left Ankle Soreness — - —-
2003-06-25 2003-06-25 DTD 0 0 Thigh Soreness Quad - —-
2003-06-04 2003-06-06 DTD 2 2 Ankle Sprain — - —-
2003-05-14 2003-05-16 DTD 2 2 Low Back Spasms — - —-
2003-03-30 2003-04-20 15-DL 21 16 Right Knee Recovery from Surgery Patellar Tendon Debridement 2002-10-17 —-
2002-10-17 2002-10-17 Off 0 0 Right Knee Surgery Patellar Tendon Debridement 2002-10-17 —-
2002-06-28 2002-07-13 15-DL 15 11 Right Knee Inflammation — - —-
2001-06-18 2001-07-31 15-DL 43 35 Right Hand Fracture 5th Metacarpal