(The following is being syndicated fromThe Captain’s Blog).
Did Brian Cashman make a wise decision when he sent 22-year old offensive wunderkind to Seattle in exchange for 23-year old phenom ? As much as it pains me to answer that question with a cliché, in this case, it applies: only time will tell. However, what we do know is Pineda represents a very rare breed for the Yankees, which is appropriate because they had to sacrifice another to get him.
In the 111-year history of the Yankees’ franchise, 122 pitchers have taken the mound for the team before their age-24 season, but only 21 threw enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Adding further perspective, since 1981, only two pitchers from this group, and , have a taken a regular turn in the Yankees’ rotation for an entire season. So, if Pineda is able to accomplish that task, he’ll join a very small fraternity. Considering the relative success enjoyed by each of the most recent qualifiers, the Yankees would probably be very happy if Pineda’s 2012 season resembles the group.
10 Most Recent Seasons by a Yankees Pitcher Age-23 or Younger
| Player | Year | Age | IP | ERA+ |
| 1995 | 23 | 175 | 111 | |
| 1982 | 23 | 183 | 105 | |
| 1981 | 22 | 105.1 | 174 | |
| 1971 | 23 | 222.1 | 111 | |
| 1968 | 23 | 267.1 | 140 | |
| 1965 | 23 | 291 | 129 | |
| 1964 | 23 | 244 | 105 | |
| 1963 | 22 | 175.2 | 138 | |
| 1962 | 22 | 213.1 | 103 | |
| 1961 | 21 | 195 | 140 |
Note: Only includes pitchers who qualified for the ERA title.
Source: baseball-reference.com
Entering his age-22 season, Jesus Montero would have also been a novelty for the Yankees. Since 1901, the team has only had 22 hitters age-22 or younger qualify for the batting title. However, these prodigies have been a little more common of late. During the dynasty years, , (twice) and each compiled at least 524 plate appearances before turning 23, so had the Yankees retained Montero, it’s likely he would have joined that succession.
10 Most Recent Seasons by a Yankees Batter, Age-22 or Younger
| Player | Year | Age | PA | OPS+ |
| 2007 | 22 | 612 | 88 | |
| 2006 | 21 | 524 | 95 | |
| 2005 | 22 | 551 | 106 | |
| 1996 | 22 | 654 | 101 | |
| 1977 | 22 | 624 | 101 | |
| 1963 | 22 | 615 | 108 | |
| 1958 | 22 | 597 | 72 | |
| 1954 | 22 | 651 | 158 | |
| 1953 | 21 | 540 | 143 | |
| 1952 | 20 | 626 | 161 |
Note: Only includes hitters who qualified for the batting title.
Source: baseball-reference.com
No matter how you slice it, Pineda and Montero are rare talents. Because Yankees’ fans have long been awaiting the arrival of Montero, his departure has led to understandable disappointment. However, Pineda has the potential to be just as exciting in pinstripes, and, if he continues his progression, fans in the Bronx should warm up to him very quickly.
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This is good, good stuff. It really highlights what a rare item Pineda is for the Yanks. Other teams seem to get these type pitchers more frequently than the Yankees, probably due to the other teams having periods of high draft choices, which the Yanks never seem to have because of their consistent high finishes.
It also clearly shows the worry about Pineda and the trade. For while Righetti, Bahnsen, and Downing were absolute flame throwers early on with all generating great enthusiam and excitment, they all had ultimately disappointing careers. (with Righetti having a little sustained sucessful period as a reliever.)
Cashman supposedly recently twittered Jim Bowden that if Pineda doesn’t develope a changeup, and become a No.1 starter, it will be a failure. Insigthful. I would amend this to say that if Pineda plays a key role in more than one Yankee championship in the next 3-5 years, it will be a modified success, regardless of how long and fruitful a career Montero has. We’ll see.
Real good post and analysis.
Add Stafford and Kline to the ultimately diasappointing career group. But these two didn’t have the hype and fan excitment that Pineda, Righetti, and a little bit-Downing had. Stan Bahnsen’s great early performance was lost in the year of the pitcher period. I feel Andy P. will ultimately make the HOF, but it may take a while. Mel S. was on a career HOF trajectory, until ended prematurely with injuries and pitching for some bad teams.
Summation
Of the 7 Yankees (in recent history) mentioned in the article….
2 (Pettitte, Stottlemeyer)–had HOF type careers
1 (Righetti)-had a very good career, although as a closer, mostly (250+ saves)
2 (Downing, Bahnsen)–had decent careers (Downing with 6 decent years, plus a little late success–20 win season with Dodgers) (Bahnsen had 8-10 utterly workhorse personified years, but never matched that success of his first year)
2 (Stafford, Kline)–had very short, but competent careers, as starter/ relievers
All in all, these are better than I first thought, from memory. Looking at the numbers–Bahnsen, Downing, and Righetti had very, very decent careers, but not elite. I guess the hype of that first awsome year, or so, and the expectation generation created in my mind of a Ford, Carlton, Pedro, Koufax, Clemens type career created a sense of disappointment later on. Plus the facts that all 3 were traded from the Yankees, and later achievements were with other teams.
Maybe something we should keep in mind in our expectations for Pineda going forward.
However you wish to slice/rationalize this deal; It will prove to be a colossal mistake for the Yankees having traded Jesus Montero.