The Yankee fan reaction to the big Jesus Montero- trade has been somewhat mixed, both for emotional and analytical reasons. The instinctive response to trading a top prospect that you have been following for years (in my case, since he signed at age 16) are understandable. From the analytical side, there is hesitance given the huge risk (from the most pessimistic viewpoint) that the Yankees are taking by dealing their top positional prospect for a 2-pitch flyball pitcher who slowed down in the second half of the season, is coming from a pitcher-friendly ballpark, and is not yet through the injury nexus. And by dealing Montero, the Yankees are losing a cost-controlled bat with middle-of-the-order potential, a much-needed infusion of youth into an aging lineup, and a chance of providing additional value as a catcher.
Of course, there is plenty to like about the deal from the Yankees’ perspective. As discussed previously, Pineda is a rare and valuable commodity: a hard-throwing strikeout pitcher with good fastball command who will be under control for the next 5 years. Montero, for all his prodigious hitting talent, is still unproven at the major league level short of a small (and very successful) debut, and his ability to hold down a position other than DH (for the Yankees) long-term was in doubt. The for Jose Campos swap is very intriguing as well, with the Yankees giving up some short-term certainty for some long-term upside.
However, there is another aspect of the trade that has been less discussed, which may become more important with some recent rumors. Namely, by finding what they hope to be a bona fide #2 starter (with ace potential) to go behind , the Yankees lessened the need to spend big on a starter next offseason. After sitting out the underwhelming free agent market this offseason, many Yankee fans were looking forward to the 2012 free agent class, which is projected to include top tier arms such as , , and .
However, as we learned from ‘s extension with the Angels, more and more frontline starters seem to be content to re-up with their current teams, getting their life-changing money and security and eschewing the chaos of free agency. Hamels was considered the top target for next reason, and for good reason. However, there is a good chance that Hamels may never hit the market at all. Philly beat writer Bob Brookover recently tweeted (h/t Ben Kabak) that the Phillies will discuss a long-term extension with Hamels and his agent during spring training.
There is no guarantee that a deal gets done, but it at least indicates a willingness for Hamels to take an extension rather than hitting the market. There is also belief that the Giants will attempt to lock up Cain as well, leaving Zack Greinke (and the questions about handling NY pressure) as the top target. The Yankee front office has reportedly been mixed on Greinke, so if he were the top guy on the market, there is no guarantee the Yankees would be interested.
By acquiring Pineda, the Yankees have 2 legitimate top of the rotation starters anchoring the rotation for the next 5 years, giving the Yankees the opportunity to allocate their resources to other areas of need. This doesn’t necessarily rule out the pursuit of Hamels or Cain next offseason (particularly if they decide to stop caring about 2014 austerity), but it does eliminate some of the desperation that would add on an extra 2 years and $3 million annually to an already monster offer. In addition, it also protects the Yankees in case none of the desired options end up hitting the market, and forcing them to either go without a good rotation or get bent over on the trade market. Losing Montero is certainly a blow, but offense (particularly from the DH spot) is easier and less expensive to replace. In Pineda, the Yankees have a (future) ace in hand (to pair with CC Sabathia) rather than the two in the metaphorical bush of free agency.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
I think the trade was a fair one for both sides. Each gave up a highly talented young player to satisfy what they saw as their biggest need. There’s risk on both sides of the equation.
No one can know ahead of time if Montero or Pineda will become stars or more ordinary players. Trying to judge the trade on truisms (that really aren’t) like “it’s inherently risky to trade a hitter for a pitcher” is folly. One can only make judgements based on evaluations of needs and the comparative value of the players involved in the transaction.
It’s not the concept of trading a valuable asset for something you need more that’s inherently risky. The risk is in not understanding the value of what you’re giving up relative to what you’re getting as in any other transaction.
The Yankees obviously thought Montero was never going to be anything but a DH for them. DH is a position they think they can fill adequately so to them Montero was expendable in return for the right asset. Also, if they had kept Montero and he started slowly or even had a sub-par year his trade value would have been reduced. Thus they had a strong incentive to make a deal now.
Montero will be missed, no question about it. But improving the starting rotation was more imperative. This is not Willie McGee for Bob Sykes or Fred McGriff for Dale Murray. No one knows which team will ultimately get the better of this trade but it’s given both teams have an equal chance to address their most pressing need.
I certainly hope that this move doesn’t preclude them from pursuing one of the big three from next year. In fact if the Yankees are serious about getting younger long term, I don’t see why they wouldn’t go after one of those guys. A rotation headed by CC, Pineda, Hamels/Grienke/Cain, and Nova is a strong 4. It would mean the Yankees have no other moves to make for the next 5 years given the age of that rotation. It would allow the Yankees to usher out the aging players, letting their older expiring contracts walk out while integrating their strong prospects from the farm system in, packaging other prospects to fill in holes, all the while having the top rotation in baseball.
I don’t think it will prevent them from going after one of those guys, and nor should it, but it does change getting one of those guys from an absolute need to more of a luxury. Getting Pineda prevents them from being screwed if Hamels and Cain sign extensions and the Yankees are not comfortable committing big money to Greinke in NY.
The only reason the Yankees would not do this is that they want to get their payroll under 189 million dollars in 2014. Since another ace will probably cost about 20 million per year this was a solid move by the Yankees. They were able to keep their beast in Sabathia locked up for the extended future and have Pineda behind him with good character guys especially in Sabathia and Rivera. With Burnett’s contract up in 2013 and Rivera possibly retiring by 2014 the Yankees should have 32 million in cap space cleared up in those two players alone with Burnett being replaced by B and Rivera hopefully within the system. While the Yankees do lose that 32 million they will need to extend or replace players like Swisher, Cano, and Granderson in the near future which will be more expensive and possibly Martin. That is why it would be in the Yankees best interest to sign Gardner and Martin to an extension now, 5 and 2-4 years respectively and wait one more year on Granderson since most likely he is coming off a career year. Swisher seems like a player that could be overpaid, but obviously if the price is right for a 3-4 WAR player then one should take it. With the signing of Pineda the Yankees can worry a lot less about the necessity of signing a Cain, Hamels, or Greinke and focus more on the offense that they will be losing within the next two to three years which there is really no one in the farm to replace unless you have faith in Adams who has shown quite a bit of promise with cavaet of serious injury problems.
Wait it out with Martin. Only reason they got him was because of injury concerns lets see if he can stay healthy again. I would like to sign both Cano and Granderson to extensions, but I would be fine saving the money on Swisher and using the money they are going to be getting back from expiring contracts on another ace pitcher. How often does a pitcher like a Hamels come to free agency assuming he does (which its looking more and more likely he will). Not very often. If youve got awesome pitching you can let Austin Romine, JR Murphy, and Gary Sanchez fill in at catcher and Slade Heathcott, Mason Williams, Ravel Santana eventually fill in the outfield as well.
Not for nothing, if the Yankees are going to keep Gardner in the 9 hole instead of leadoff over Jeter, or at the least platoon them lefty righty, or if they plan on sacrificing Garnder’s glove to give more at bats to Jones then why not include him in a deal with other prospects who will never make it to the Yankees big league clubs for a real corner outfield bat?
Granderson is one of my favorite Yankees but I hope we either let him walk in free agency, or we pick up his 2013 option and trade him. He’s already entering his 30′s and his defenseive and offensive make ups aren’t the kind of skill sets that last well as you age.
He’s a small power hitter who is an average walker, high strikeout guy, and gets most of his power from bat speed. That is usually the first thing that starts to go and once his power drops off his bat is going to be average really quickly.
In the field he relies almost 100% on speed to makeup for bad routes to balls and a weak arm. This is very similar to Damon, except Damon’s arm was worse. He’ll likely be in LF in 2-3 years, at which point his bat will be more important than ever to his value. If you expect, as I do, his bat and defense to fall off around the same time a long term extension would be disasterous.
The best hope, in my opinion, is he comes as close as possible to repeating last year and then we pick up the option and trade him. You can get back a young position player to fill a corner outfield spot and have Gardner take over CF.
Cano seems like a long term risk with the bat as well but not nearly as much as Granderson. Re-signing both would be insane to me with the risks both carry in the long run. Cano is going to get a long term extension, so we need to hedge our bets and dump Granderson before that point.
Off topic to some degree but I never understood the Rod Carew-Cano comparisons. They really aren’t all that similar when you look at the numbers. Carew consistently walked more, hit with very little power, showed more speed, and profiled perfectly as a leadoff guy. Cano is a high contact, big power, middle of the order bat. They have some things in common, but Cano is much more Roberto Alomar than he is Carew.