Could Manny be ready in late 2012?
The lack of aggressiveness by the Yankee brass this offseason speaks to a displeasure with external options, but also signals that they like what they have internally enough where they don’t feel desperate to overpay in terms of dollars or talent for a FA or trade. It’s a strange position for Yankee fans to be in, but when you have a top 5 farm system you operate differently than you did during the Stienbrenner years. All indications are that the Yanks didn’t go crazy with their Yu Darvish bid, which indicates doubts they have about his ability to live up to the estimated 100M+price tag. Combine that with a lackluster FA market and on the heels of the sky-high price the Padres received in the Mat Latos deal, it would seem we as Yankee fans should start looking internally for rotation answers. With that in mind, let’s take a look at who we may see with the big club at some point next year:
Manny Banuelos: The consensus star of the Yankee system, with poise and polish well beyond his 21 years. But will need to get his walks down before getting the call. Still a baby, no need to rush. The depth they have at AAA allows them to let his development dictate his promotion rather than the needs of the MLB club.
Dellin Betances: Had a very rough MLB debut, but that shouldn’t change opinions on his future. He has the best package of raw stuff in the system, its all about staying healthy and keeping his mechanics in check. Having watched him pitch live last year thanks to Trenton Thunder webcasts, a familiar pattern would emerge. He’d be blowing hitters away for a few innings, have the wheels come off where he walks 3 and gets hit hard, then go back to dominating batters the following inning. To his credit he would often find a way to get back on track and finish the inning.
Hector Noesi: Odd as it may sound, Hector Noesi’s extended MLB look in 2011 may be a big reason the Yanks have shown so much patience this off season. He performed well working out of the bullpen last year, he’s reportedly throwing the ball great in winter ball, and will almost certainly be the first option should a spot in the rotation open up. Great fastball command with lesser secondary offerings.
Adam Warren: Projects as a mid to back of the rotation starter, but has probably proved everything he needs to at AAA at this point. Had a dominating stretch last summer, but his 4.05 FIP tells me Phelps (3.69) and Mitchell (3.96) may be more ready.
David Phelps: Hurt his shoulder last July, though came back in August and pitched well. Was sent to the Arizona Fall League to get some more innings, where he (0-2 7.43 ERA) but finished strong. Like Warren, needs to mix up his pitches well in order to succeed.
DJ Mitchell: Sinkerballer whose future role is still uncertain, could be a solid innings eater or a Ramiro Mendoza-type out of the bullpen.
Every MLB club would love to be 6 deep in the rotation coming out of Spring Training, but few can boast another 6 options that could help the MLB club at some point later the same year. It may feel more like the Twins or Rays way of operating than what we’re accustomed to with the Yanks, but unless the asking prices come way down we will likely be looking at internal options in the rotation at some point next year.
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I really doubt that Banuelos, Betances, or Phelps will have much impact in 2012 because they will be on innings limits. For them to be pitching in New York late in the season would require limiting their innings early in the year. Hopefully they can be ready for 2013. Not that I would be surprised to see them in a Yankee uniform in 2012, I just doubt that they will get enough starts to make an impact.
That’s fair, but if a spring injury keeps their innings down its still possible. Your scenario is most likely, but whenever a top prospect is at AAA you have to start thinking he’s just a phone call away.
You forgot Joba.
/trolling
Ahhhh..somewhere deep in the back of my mind I still have a candle burning. But we all know it aint happening. At this point, he’s probably auditioning for his role in the post-Mariano bullpen.
If Betances could only take that CRUCIAL step and improve the command of his FB, he’d immediately become a fearsome middle reliever.
Some think he’s destined for the bullpen, that his blowups will always be an issue (see Burnett, AJ) and you can pull the plug more quickly if he’s in the pen. But he’s still only logged around 400+IP in the minors (5-600 used to be a rule of thumb) I say its still too soon to tell. When Dellin is on, he’s VERY hard to hit. He could be a beast as a starter, so you have to keep trying until he reaches Brackman-level ineffectiveness.
The thing about Dellin and Manny is that if they put things together, they’ll come quickly now that they’re at AAA.
I for one hope the Yanks keep the youngsters and build from within. Pitching did not fail the Yanks last year, hitting did. What they need to improve on is clutch hitting. They had too many opportunities to score alot of runs in which they failed to do so. Tex and Swish, were the biggest disappointments in the playoffs, but they are still good palyers. Maybe the youth ful Montero will turn out to be clutch and it will infect the rest of the hitters in big situations. While I’d like a guy like Cespedes, I’m more interested in the younger 19 year-old Cuban outfielder, Jorge Soler. Sign him and get him into the AA or AAA level right away. He could be roaming the Yankees outfield on a regular basis by the time he’s 21. With Mason Williams coming up soon after, Cano becomes the next Jeter and Nova, Noesi, Banuelos, Betances, Robertson, Montero, Nunez, Soler and Mason could be a heck of a core for the future, with some of the other pitchers in the system going to the bullpen or being traded for other position players. These players could become the center of the next Yankees dynasty if they all live up to their perceived potentials. Give them a chance to do it!
If you are expecting Nova, Noesi, Banuelos, Betances, Montero, Nunez, Soler, and Williams to all end up in the major leagues, let alone live up to their potential upside you haven’t followed prospects very long. It’s statistically impossible for that to happen, some will fizzle out altogether, some will become league average starter, some will be backups, and if we are lucky one or two will live up to their potential and become staples on the Yankees.
I know we all want our prospects to be great, and it would be wonderful if they all became even league average starters. But it’s not happening, I know that’s not a popular opinion, but it’s true.
Joe, you have an excellent, and realistic vision of the future for the young Yankee prospects you mentioned. And the good part is, they don’t all have to be superstars to make a good team.
Joe P hit the nail right on the head.. I think it’s smart not to sign any of these free agents. We pieced together a rotation that worked last year. Call me a dreamer but maybe AJ can give is a solid year this season the stuff is there and he’s a 200+ innings guy. I say trade Swish and a prospect for a solid middle rotation guy and maybe you sign a beltran for 2 yrs. He’s got a bat and I like him in the playoffs. The Yanks need to get better at developing internally. Hey look at the Rays..
No middle of the rotation starter is being traded for just Swisher, and replacing the reliable Swisher for 1 year at 10 million for a 2-3 year deal of the always injured Beltran is an awful idea.
While the Yankees should always keep the door open for prospects to come up and help us win, both in the short and long term, running the Yankees like the Rays would be foolish. The Rays would kill to have a payroll like the Yankees, we have a resource almost no team in baseball can compete with and every team would take in a second. Not to use that just for that feeling of developing players is silly. They don’t give you extra runs in the playoffs for home grown players, they all count the same. If you find players who fit what you are trying to do in free agency you sign them, it’s that simple. The Yankees simply weren’t in love with Wilson and Buehrle didn’t fit the need. If Felix were on the market this year like he was going to be the Yankees would be all over it, the same will be true if the Phillies somehow Cole Hamels hit free agency next year. You don’t sign players just to sign them, but to dismiss the idea of signing free agents for any reason is silly. Just as silly as not trading for players that fit your team philosophy just because you want to cheer for a guy from your system instead.
T.O., YOU hit the nail on the head. Swish is a very reliable ball player; he’s good in the clubhouse and he’s great with the fans.
He may not be the “go to” guy in the post season, but he’s the guy you need to “get to” the post season.
Everyone has a role in life; maybe that’s Nick Swisher’s:
He’ll fight like hell to get you to the post season, but once you’re there, he passes the baton, because he’s got nothing left in the tank. There’s no shame in that; he should be applauded, and thanked for his contribution. He did his part; he played his role; he left it all out on the field over the course of 162 games.
You go Nick
Lol, the postseason is a small sample size. Cano was just as bad in the Post season until this year.