won’t be 24 until March, and yet it feels like he has been in the system forever. Part of the loaded 2006 Yankee draft class that included such notables as , , and , Betances was a raw high school power pitcher with a seemingly limitless ceiling. He certainly looked the part after signing, tearing up the Gulf Coast League in his professional debut.
After getting sidetracked with elbow surgery during his second year in the minors, Betances has slowly but steadily moved his way up through the Yankee system, and made his major league debut last season. His progress has not gone unnoticed, being ranked consistently in the Yankees’ organizational top 5 by both Yankee bloggers and professional sources, and reaching #43 in Baseball America’s top 100 prospects prior to last year.
The high 2010 ranking was the result of a strong season between high-A and AA in which Betances seemed to tame his longstanding control problems (walked under 2.5 per 9 compared to over 5 per 9 in 2009), probably the major strike against him as a prospect. He did so without sacrificing his ability to strike batters out, posting a career-high strikeout rate of over 11 punchouts per 9 innings. 2011 was a different story for Betances, however. While his strikeout rate still remained impressively high (around 10 per 9), the control demons returned, and Betances began walking batters at the 5 per 9 clip again.
That the 6’8″ Betances has control problems is understandable, since tall pitchers tend to have difficulty repeating their mechanics. What was discouraging about his 2011 performance was that he had shown so much improvement in that area in 2010, so even though he was facing tougher competition in 2011, it was a definite regression.
While Betances appeared to turn the corner in 2010 and then regress in 2011, it is possible that he still remains the same pitcher that he always was. As we well know, control and command are two different animals (control indicates the ability to avoid walks while command is the ability to locate pitches where the pitcher intends). While Betances has shown an ability to display the former (in 2010), a lot of assessments have been critical of Betances’ command, even during his strong 2010.
For a pitcher with good velocity and a sharp curveball like Betances, he can often keep hitters off-balance even when his command is not especially great. This will work fine against overmatched minor league hitters, but as we saw when he moved up to AA and AAA, more experienced hitters were probably less likely to swing at offerings out of the zone. For Betances to take the next step and become the homegrown frontline starter that we have dreamed about for years, improving his command will continue to be the most important hurdle.
Over the next year or two, the Yankees will have to decide what Betances’ future holds. His velocity and 2-pitch mix could make him a useful asset out of the bullpen, but likely he holds more value if he is able to stick as a starter (especially with Robertson, Soriano, and Chamberlain likely in the bullpen for the next few seasons). While tall pitchers (anecdotally) often take longer to develop, 24 is getting to the high side of the range in which you would expect him to be able to make an improvement to his command. If he’s still walking 5 batters per 9 next year, the best way to utilize him at the major league level (and possibly maintain whatever trade value exists) would be a bullpen conversion.
Without some progress in control and command in 2012, Dellin’s dreams of being a starter for the Yankees may be dashed, as he’ll be competing for a future spot with Manny Banuelos (who had control problems of his own last year), other prospects such as and Adam Warren, and the inevitable free agent acquisition if none of the above pan out. I’m hopeful that he can figure things out because the potential upside is tremendous, but there is a reasonable chance that if he hasn’t figured out how to command the ball by now, it may never happen.
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I’m sure we’d all like to see Betances conquer his command issues sooner or later but it seems that it took Randy Johnson until he was 30 to figure it out. Now, I’m not saying Betances can be that good but I’d hate to see him prematurely confined to a one-inning role when his potential might be much greater.
Dellin Betances profiles similar to Ubaldo Jimenez to me. The fact that he only has 2 pitches is a concern. Hughes, Joba, and Kennedy all only had 2 when they came up and weren’t every successful. Not until Kennedy developed that cutter. Even Nova had to develop a slider when he came back up.
Yes, he has only two pitches but those two pitches are very good ones. Betances has better stuff than Hughes or Kennedy. Joba was done in by the Yankees schizophrenic handling of his development (the rush to turn him into a one-inning guy like the original post is advocating for Betances and then to a starter and then back to the pen …) and injuries rather than by limitations of his stuff.
There’s plenty of time for Betances to develop a third pitch. Plenty of guys with two superior pitches and the ability to miss bats have been successful. Right now he should focus on his command. Ubaldo Jimenez is not exactly a bad outcome for Betances but I think his potential is higher than that.
Ubaldo as a “not bad outcome” really? This is way overvalung Betances in my opinion. First of all Betances has never shown the consistent 95-100 MPH fastball that Ubaldo had up until last year, he seems to sit more in the 93 range with tye ability to reach back and go as high as 97. But this isn’t Ubaldo averaging 95 and hitting 100 on a regular basis.
Also the comparison to Randy Johnson every time someone brings up control problems with Betances gets quite old, and frankly is pretty ridiculous. Randy Johnson became one of the greatest pitchers of all time and is honestly not a very dependable outcome. Many more pitchers with those problems flame out than ever sniff a comparison to Randy Johnson. I get that his name is memorable, but everytime a tall pitcher struggles with command his name is brought out as a reason said pitcher will eventually turn it around. It just makes no sense to bet on an outcome closer to a once in a lifetime player, than it does the countless flame outs with good stuff and no control.
In reference to Randy Johnson, I said:
What part of that didn’t you get?
I also never said that Betances would overcome his control issues, let alone to the extent Johnson did. I merely took issue with stance of the original post that said Betances had to figure it out this year or become a one-inning guy and used Johnson as an example of someone who figured it out at a much later age than 24.
Regarding Jimenez, I was referring to his results, not his stuff. Yes, he probably had better stuff at this peak than Betances does, but outside of 2010 his results were middling at best – barely maintained a 2:1 K to BB ratio while averaging nearly 4 BB/9 with an ERA+ of 123 (yeah, I know – Coors Field – but isn’t Ubaldo of the humidor era?). Jimenez pitched credibly for the most part, had one really good year and was swapped for a decent prospect haul. If that’s the best we get from Betances in his cost-controlled years – then yes, that’s not a bad outcome.
I understand you aren’t saying he will become Randy Johnson, my point is I’m tired of Randy’s name coming up everytime some tall pitcher has control issues. No one ever brings up all the names of busts that are much more comparable than Randy Johnson. I think it’s just a silly crutch for everyone to always have Randy Johnson in their back pocket for an argument like this.
Ubaldo Jimenez has been one of the best road pitchers in baseball for the last 3 years, go look up his splits and tell me that Coors didn’t have a huge affect on his numbers. The argument that he had 1 good season and was middling at best the rest of the time is a joke. You also speak about him like he’s a 37 year old has been, if he is truly healthy next year his future could be brighter than his past.
Doesn’t he have slider and cutter? I remember both those pitches when he came in during the September callup… seemed to have some good bite
I agree, though maintaining a competitive team often means that you can’t afford to let a guy like Betances figure things out as he struggles in the majors. I’m not sure how many minor league options he has left, but once he can’t go back to the minors, the option would either be convert him to the ‘pen or cut bait and trade him. I’m hopeful that none of this will be necessary though.
Interesting piece, though it seems to me too much is sometimes made of walks at the minor league level. They are often the result of young pitchers being asked to work on things; perhaps to develop a third or fourth pitch or refine a new grip. With a power pitcher capable of striking out 10 or 11 batters per nine innings, walks are not necessarily a concern– so long as the pitcher is hard to hit. And Betances has been very hard to hit at pretty much every level. Seems to me there were many games last year where he went six, perhaps walking three or four, but fanning seven and allowing just two hits. As long as Betances misses bats — a talent he clearly has — he should be fine.
Starting the last game of the season vs Tampa Bay: 7 batters faced; 4 walks, 2ER, couldnt get through a single inning. Yeah, it’s a ridiculously small sample size and, yeah, you’re right that walks in the minor leagues can be misleading sometimes. Against one of the lousiest hitting teams in the AL in a game in which there was zero pressure on him and his team to perform, though, he sadly confirmed Eric’s take handily.
Check out some of the early performances of Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte (dare I mention Ian Kennedy). Rough first innings – or even rough first year or two — are common to many great pitchers. Pitchers need time to develop– there’s no way around it. The problem with Yanks has long been the requirement of near-instant success (Wang, Nova). If Yanks are turly committed to cutting payroll– and in light of new CBA — they will simply have to depend heavily on current crop of prospects. Looking at even a full rookie season of a young pitcher can be highly misleading.
I agree that giving up on a pitcher because of a rough start to his career can often lead to disappointment once they figure it out somewhere else. The reality of the Yankees needing to compete for the World Series every year likely limits the time they are willing to wait on a pitcher to develop relative to another organization in the rebuilding process.
I love the idea of a local kid playing for and succeeding to the team he grew up rooting for. Great story. Unfortunately I just don’t see where he can fit in with the club long term. His best use to this club is to be included in a trade in my opinion. Barring any last minute changes, the rotation this year and next year is:
1.CC Sabathia (one of the few true Ace’s in baseball)
2. Nova (I am assuming he’ll hold his own and keep a spot)
3. Burnett (33 million owed to him unmovable for this and next year)
4. Hughes (if he bounces back).
5. Freddy Garcia (this year only)
Next year Freddy is gone. You can pretty much guarantee the Yankees will dive into the FA pool next year and sign at least one of the Hamels, Cain, Grienke, Marcum, John Danks, or if he bounces back they may even take a flyer on Liriano. Thats all 5 spots locked up again.
If Hughes is injured or ineffective Banuelos or Betances wont be called up to pitch in his spot. Hughes will most likely be moved to the pen and one of the several more major league ready pitchers the Yankees have in their system will be called upon.
In the Yankees farm system, Hector Noesi, Adam Warren, David Phelps, and even DJ Mitchell are all ready to step up this year and pitch a full season. They are as touted or even more so than Nova was (pre slider Nova). Banuelos and Betances just moved up to AAA. Let them pitch in AAA first. No need to rush your pitching prospects like they did with Hughes, Joba, and Kennedy. They don’t have to.
So in order for Betances to get a shot the Yankees would have to have either Nova, Hughes, or Burnett falter, him leapfrog multiple prospects, and find an open rotation spot for him. Since his trade value is so high because he does have a lot of talent, I just don’t see how he can even get a chance with this team. I say include some combination of Betances, DJ Mitchell, David Phelps, Romine, Laird, David Adams, Corban Joseph, Melky Mesa,and Abe and Zolio Almonte, to bring back a true number 2 starter. Those guys are all blocked either by players locked into long term deals, or prospects who are better than they are.
I actually agree with your assessment that Betances and Baneuols should probably spend most of 2012 at AAA (unless they prove that they’re ready sooner) and that Betances might be more valuable as a trade chip. But you can forget about Hamels and Cain – they will most likely be signed to extensions by their current clubs. Greinke and Marcum? Will the Yankees be willing to shell out the money for one or both of those guys (assuming they’re available)? They already shied away from Greinke last winter. Danks might be nice to have but he shouldn’t block either Betances or Baneulos. Noesi, Warren and Phelps should all get shots to contribute this year but I’m not sure that any of them have the upside of Betances.
I share Roadrider’s skepticism about Yanks’ ability or willingness to sign these big-name pitchers. Shelling out $20 mill a year for six or seven years is simply not going to work under new budgetary constraints. And remember– Yanks will have to decide on re-signing Cano and Granderson after 2013. I am skeptical they will re-sign both. If you do the math , it will be virtually impossible to resign those two and add a high-priced pitcher as well. (Of course, if tight-budget Yanks disappoint on field — which I think is very possible — Hal may have to reconsider in bid to keep up attendance, viewership).
I agree in that I think Hamels and Cain will sign extensions with their respective teams. Thats fine by me, I am not as big a Matt Cain fan as everyone else seems to be. I didn’t mean for the Yankees to shell out for 2 pitchers next year, not at all. And I think they shied away from Grienke because of their reluctance to trade their prospects for him. Your correct none of the Noesi, Warren or Phelps have the upside of Banuelos or Betances. And Betances doesn’t have the polish of Banuelos, who is also younger. All the more reason to use Betances as a trade chip with a logjam of farm system pitchers and the potential to add one more via FA
I have long thought Betances most likely will end up in the pen. He has simply never shown the ability to locate pitches, or even the start of understanding his mechanics. Add in the fact that his change is almost non-existant and you have the makings of a setup man or closer. I would love for him to suddenly “get it” and become Randy Johnson, but let’s be real Randy is the exception that proves the rule. He’s the only guy ever like him, I’m not betting on Betances’ future holding anywhere near that kind of outcome.
While it is true he holds down the hits, a guy who loses his mechanics as quickly, and as bad as Betances is always a disaster waiting to happen. You want to be able to avoid the big inning as a starter, unfortunatley this is exactly what Betances is. It only takes one hit, once you’ve walked the bases loaded, for an inning to get out of hand.
I’m not saying that he should be gotten rid of, but he shouldn’t stand in the way of any trade for number 3 or above starter. If he doesn’t show some real improvements this year his future with us has to be re-evaluated, walking 5 batters per 9 innings in AAA isn’t likely to get better at the next level.
Exactly why I would put him in a deal for a proven starter. He really doesn’t have a future with the team other than as a trade piece. He may have better raw stuff than Noesi, Warren, Phelps, and even Banuelos, but he hasn’t shown a propensity to harness it. He has more value as a trade chip now while teams still believe he has this “tremendous upside” than when hes auditioning to be the future closer.
To me, a majority of our prospects are expendable. There’s not enough room on the roster for them all to get called up. Also we have most of our prospects in a few specific areas like pitching and catching. Trade Betances, Nova, and David Phelps? Sure we have Noesi, Warren and Banuelos. Trade Romine and Gary Sanchez? Sure we have Montero and JR Murphy. Trade Mason Williams? Sure we have Slade Heathcott, Ravel Santana, and Jorge Soler. Oh wait we didn’t sign him. Well we should damnit! Eduardo Nunez is a tradeable piece too we have Cito Culver and Angelo Gumbs.
I’m not saying disregard the farm but we have layers of prospects and since most of them are blocked by veterans signed to long term deals, roster space, and even each other, most of these guys will best serve the Yankees by not being on the team.
I will admit to being a bit of a prospect hugger but when I look up and see that Matt freaking Latos has been traded I have to hope Cashman was trying to acquire him as well. Anything less is just really unacceptable from him. Iv said this before, we have valuable chips, not enough room on the major league roster to use them all even if every single one of them panned out, and a clear need for a starting pitcher. To not make a trade for someone in my mind, is a major failure for Cashman.
Andrew Marchand reported the Yankees weren’t in on Latos at all. I don’t know if they never talked to the Pads or if they just weren’t interested at their price but they made no push for Latos.
My guess is that it’s just a matter of confidence with young Mr. Bettances. Confidence is a basic component, vital to setting will and gaining focus.
The challenge comes when better batters guess and bang, the question is then, can he suppress the butterflies, and learn to cope better than the batter? The Yankees figured he needed an early taste.
Ivan, latest, and Phil before him faced such and succeeded. I dunno about Ian and Mark, whether they might have been hasty, I’m thinkin’.
Confidence? That’s over simplifying don’t you think? His biggest problem isn’t confidence, it’s the fact that he’s 6’8 and he doesn’t know how to repeat his mechanics. You could be the most confident pitcher in the world but if you can’t repeat your mechanics physically it doesn’t matter.
I’m not sure we can put Hughes in the “succeded” category. Outside of 2 months to start 2010 he hasn’t been a very good starter. In fact from June on he had a 4.90 ERA in 2010 and for his career as a starter he has a 4.90 ERA. He has one more shot to really step his game up, otherwise the Yankees need to put him in the pen or trade him.
As far as Kennedy I’m in the camp doesn’t believe he would near the same success in the AL, plus you have to give talent to get talent and Granderson has become a monster with the bat. If he sustains that kind of production, or close to it, for two more seasons I don’t know how anyone could look down on that trade.
Mark?